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Historical rankings of prime ministers of Australia

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

John Curtin (prime minister from 1941 to 1945) was ranked as Australia's greatest prime minister by surveys of academics conducted by Monash University in 2010 and 2020.

Several surveys of academics and the general public have been conducted to evaluate and rank the performance of theprime ministers of Australia.

According to Paul Strangio ofMonash University, there has been little academic interest in ranking Australian prime ministers, unlike the numeroussurveys conducted on American presidents andBritish prime ministers. The few surveys that have been conducted have been quite unscientific, with respondents chosen at random and no efforts made to measure personal biases. Strangio notes that "the dominant methodology for studying the nation's leaders has been individual-centered biographies [...] the relatively small number of collective anthologies have treated each prime minister discretely rather than undertaking comparative analysis of their leadership performance, let alone contemplating qualities of greatness in the office".[1]

Surveys of academics

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The Canberra Times (1992)

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In 1992,The Canberra Times asked "almost 300 political scientists and historians at every Australian university" to nominate the five greatest prime ministers in Australian history; 143 responded. Five points were awarded to the prime minister each respondent judged to be the greatest, and so on down to one point for the fifth-greatest prime minister; some respondents awarded half points.Ben Chifley received the most overall points in the survey (and was judged to be the overall winner), althoughAlfred Deakin was nominated as the greatest prime minister by the most respondents. The four shortest-serving prime ministers were excluded from consideration, as well as the serving prime minister,Paul Keating. The total number of points was not published for prime ministers ranked outside the ten (except for those who received no points), only the order.[2]

Prime MinisterTotal points"Greatest" votes
Ben Chifley413.5
 
30
John Curtin355.5
 
36
Alfred Deakin351
 
43
Gough Whitlam272
 
18
Robert Menzies231.5
 
5
Billy Hughes115
 
4
Bob Hawke55.5
 
0
Andrew Fisher51
 
4
Malcolm Fraser36
 
0
James Scullin30
 
2
Edmund BartonNot further specified
(1–29)
1
John Gorton0
Joseph Lyons0
Chris Watson0
Stanley Bruce0
Joseph Cook00
Harold Holt00
William McMahon00
George Reid00

The Australian Financial Review (2001)

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In 2001, to commemorate the centenary offederation,The Australian Financial Review asked six historians to answer the question "who were the best five and who were the worst five prime ministers since 1901?". Five points were awarded to each historian's choice as the best and worst prime minister, and so on down to one point for the fifth-best and fifth-worst prime ministers.Alfred Deakin was a unanimous choice as Australia's best prime minister, winning full votes from each selector;Robert Menzies also appeared on every "best" list. No one prime minister appeared on all six "worst" lists, althoughWilliam McMahon appeared on five andJames Scullin on four. Several prime ministers appeared on both "best" and "worst" lists, sometimes from the same selector.Stuart Macintyre considered Menzies to be Australia's second-best prime minister for his 1949–66 term, but also the fifth-worst, for his 1939–41 term. Likewise,Humphrey McQueen consideredGough Whitlam to be both the fifth-best and the fourth-worst, describing him as a "curate's egg". Macintyre was the only respondent to award half-points, ranking Whitlam andPaul Keating as the equal fifth-best prime ministers. The three caretaker prime ministers were excluded from consideration, as well as the serving prime minister,John Howard.[3]

Prime Minister"Best" points"Worst" points
Alfred Deakin30
 
0
Robert Menzies19
 
1
 
John Curtin14
 
0
Ben Chifley9
 
0
Gough Whitlam4.5
 
4
 
Stanley Bruce4
 
6
 
Andrew Fisher3
 
1
 
Billy Hughes3
 
5
 
Bob Hawke3
 
0
Paul Keating0.5
 
4
 
Arthur Fadden00
Malcolm Fraser00
Edmund Barton01
 
Joseph Lyons01
 
Chris Watson04
 
John Gorton05
 
Harold Holt07
 
Joseph Cook08
 
James Scullin012
 
George Reid013
 
William McMahon018
 

The participants in the survey wereGeoffrey Bolton (ECU),Graeme Davison (Monash),Ian Hancock (ANU),Stuart Macintyre (Melbourne),Humphrey McQueen (freelance), andClem Lloyd (Wollongong).Geoffrey Blainey was invited to participate, but declined.[3]

The Age (2004)

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In 2004,The Age asked fifteen historians and political commentators to rank Australia's eleven prime ministers fromJohn Curtin onwards (i.e., since 1941). Eleven points were awarded to the prime minister each respondent judged to be the greatest, and so on down to one point for the worst prime minister; some respondents awarded half points.John Curtin received the most overall points in the survey, as well as being named the greatest prime minister by the most respondents (exactly one-third of the total).William McMahon received the lowest possible ranking from all but one respondent. The two caretaker prime ministers during that time were excluded from consideration, but the serving prime minister,John Howard, was included.[4][5]

Prime MinisterTotal points"Greatest" votes
John Curtin146
 
5
Robert Menzies141.5
 
4.5
Bob Hawke133.5
 
3
Ben Chifley111.5
 
2.5
John Howard110.5
 
0
Gough Whitlam92.5
 
0
Paul Keating73.5
 
0
Malcolm Fraser73
 
0
John Gorton55
 
0
Harold Holt36
 
0
William McMahon17
 
0

The participants in the survey wereJudith Brett (La Trobe),Greg Craven (Curtin),David Day (La Trobe),Michael Duffy (freelance),Brian Galligan (Melbourne),Ian Hancock (ANU),John Hirst (La Trobe),Carol Johnson (Adelaide),Stuart Macintyre (Melbourne),Alistair Mant (freelance),Andrew Parkin (Flinders),Tom Stannage (Curtin),Paul Strangio (Monash),James Walter (Monash), andPatrick Weller (Griffith).[5]Geoffrey Blainey,Marian Simms, and several others were invited to participate, but declined.[4]

Monash University (2010)

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In 2010, a team of researchers fromMonash University asked "145 academics that were teaching or researching in the fields of Australian politics or history" to place Australia's prime ministers in five categories; 40 responded. Five points were awarded to prime ministers judged "outstanding", four for those considered "good", three for "average", two for "below average", and one for "failure". The three caretaker prime ministers —Earle Page,Frank Forde, andJohn McEwen— were excluded from consideration, as was the then–serving prime minister,Julia Gillard.John Curtin received the highest average rating, 4.78, and he was the only prime minister to whom no respondents gave a rating lower than "good".[1]

RankPrime MinisterAverage score
1John Curtin4.78
 
2Bob Hawke4.46
 
3Alfred Deakin4.45
 
4Ben Chifley4.41
 
5Robert Menzies4.35
 
6Gough Whitlam4.11
 
7Andrew Fisher3.78
 
8Paul Keating3.76
 
9John Howard3.68
 
10Edmund Barton3.35
 
11Joseph Lyons3.30
 
12Chris Watson3.23
 
13Malcolm Fraser3.19
 
14Billy Hughes3.13
 
15Stanley Bruce2.81
 
16John Gorton2.76
 
17Kevin Rudd2.73
 
18Harold Holt2.62
 
19George Reid2.60
 
20James Scullin2.51
 
21Joseph Cook2.30
 
22Arthur Fadden2.01
 
23William McMahon1.27
 

Monash University (2020)

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In 2020, researchers from Monash University replicated the 2010 survey, and asked 121 "scholars working in the fields of Australian politics/history" to place Australia's prime ministers in five categories; 66 participated. As with the previous survey, five points were awarded to prime ministers judged "outstanding", four for those considered "good", three for "average", two for "below average", and one for "failure". New additions to the survey includedJulia Gillard, the second tenure ofKevin Rudd,Tony Abbott, andMalcolm Turnbull. The three caretaker prime ministers were excluded from consideration, as was the then–serving prime minister,Scott Morrison.Arthur Fadden, who was prime minister for 39 days and was present in the 2010 survey, was omitted from this survey.[6] Of the 22 prime ministers ranked on both surveys, only four improved their standings (Keating, Watson, Reid, and Scullin) from 2010.[6]

RankPrime MinisterAverage scoreRank in 2010
1John Curtin4.69
 
1Steady
2Bob Hawke4.63
 
2Steady
3Alfred Deakin4.58
 
3Steady
4Ben Chifley4.44
 
4Steady
5=Robert Menzies4.12
 
5Steady
5=Paul Keating4.12
 
8Increase
7Gough Whitlam4.05
 
6Decrease
8Andrew Fisher3.96
 
7Decrease
9John Howard3.71
 
9Steady
10Edmund Barton3.51
 
10Steady
11Chris Watson3.26
 
12Increase
12Joseph Lyons3.25
 
11Decrease
13Julia Gillard3.18
 
N/ASteady
14Malcolm Fraser3.15
 
13Decrease
15Billy Hughes3.00
 
14Decrease
16George Reid2.96
 
19Increase
17James Scullin2.81
 
20Increase
18Stanley Bruce2.79
 
15Decrease
19Harold Holt2.74
 
18Decrease
20John Gorton2.63
 
16Decrease
21Kevin Rudd2.51
 
17Decrease
22Joseph Cook2.44
 
21Decrease
23Malcolm Turnbull2.15
 
N/ASteady
24Tony Abbott1.37
 
N/ASteady
25William McMahon1.35
 
23Decrease

Rankings by highest approval rating

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It is possible to compare the highest approval ratings achieved by prime ministers in various opinion polls.

Nielsen Poll

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According to the Nielsen Poll (available since 1972),Bob Hawke had the highest approval rating in November 1984,[7] with 75%, and the lowest was William McMahon, with a 34% approval rating.

Highest Nielsen Poll ratings for each prime minister since 1972:

  1. Bob Hawke – 75% (November 1984)
  2. Kevin Rudd – 74%[8] (March 2009)
  3. John Howard – 67% (January 2005)
  4. Gough Whitlam – 62% (February 1973)
  5. Malcolm Fraser – 56% (April 1976 and May 1978)
  6. Julia Gillard – 56% (July 2010)
  7. Tony Abbott – 47% (November 2013)
  8. Paul Keating – 40% (November 1994)
  9. William McMahon – 34% (November 1972)

William McMahon ended 1971 with an approval rating of 36.4%.[clarification needed] By the end of 1972, his popularity had sunk to 34%, and he was defeated by Gough Whitlam in the 1972 election.

Newspoll

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Highest satisfaction rating

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According toNewspoll (available since 1985), the highest satisfaction rating of any prime minister was Kevin Rudd's at 71% in August 2008, while Paul Keating has had the lowest high-mark satisfaction rating at 43%.[9]

Voters are asked the question: 'Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way -name- is doing his/her job as Prime Minister?'

  1. Kevin Rudd – 71% (18–20 April 2008)
  2. Scott Morrison – 68% (22–25 April 2020)
  3. John Howard – 67% (10–12 May 1996)
  4. Bob Hawke – 62% (24–26 January 1987)
  5. Anthony Albanese – 62% (30 November–3 December 2022)
  6. Malcolm Turnbull – 60% (19–22 November 2015)
  7. Julia Gillard – 50% (18–20 February 2011)
  8. Tony Abbott – 47% (25–27 October 2013)
  9. Paul Keating – 43% (2–18 April 1993, 16–18 September 1994 & 18–20 November 1994)

Lowest satisfaction rating

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Since Newspoll began in 1985, the lowest satisfaction rating of any prime minister is by far Paul Keating's at 17% in August 1993, with a 6% difference between Keating and the nearest low rating of Julia Gillard at 23% in September 2011.[9]

  1. Paul Keating – 17% (20–22 August 1993)
  2. Julia Gillard – 23% (2–4 September 2011)
  3. Tony Abbott – 24% (6–8 February 2015)
  4. Bob Hawke – 27% (29 November – 8 December 1991)
  5. John Howard – 28% (26–29 June 1998 & 9–11 March 2001)
  6. Malcolm Turnbull – 29% (20–23 October 2016 & 23–26 February 2017)
  7. Kevin Rudd – 32% (30 August – 1 September 2013)
  8. Scott Morrison – 37% (8–11 January 2020)
  9. Anthony Albanese – 40% (4–8 November 2024)

Public opinion polls

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JWS research

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In May 2011, John Scales of JWS research polled 2141 people in the 10 most marginal Labor seats and the 10 most marginal Coalition seats.

Asked "which, of the past five, had been the best government for Australia?",[10] responses were as follows:

  • 50% nominated the Howard government (1996–2007)
  • 13% for the Keating government (1991–1996)
  • 13% for the Hawke government (1983–1991)
  • 12% for the Rudd government (2007–2010)
  • 4% nominated the Gillard government (2010–2013)
  • 8% responded as "unsure"

In all, 50% of all respondents nominated a Liberal Party government, with 42% nominating the Labor Party. At the time of the survey, the federal government was led by the Labor Party.

See also

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References

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  1. ^abStrangio, Paul (2013). "Evaluating Prime-Ministerial Performance: The Australian Experience". In Strangio, Paul; 't Hart, Paul; Walter, James (eds.).Understanding Prime-Ministerial Performance: Comparative Perspectives. Oxford University Press.ISBN 9780199666423.
  2. ^Abjorensen, Norman;Australia's Top 10 PMs,The Canberra Times, 5 December 1992. Retrieved 30 December 2017.
  3. ^abWalker, Tony; Koutsoukis, Jason; "The good, the bad and the couldabeens",The Australian Financial Review, 3 January 2001.
  4. ^abGordon, Michael;Grattan, Michelle,Curtin: our greatest PM,The Age, 18 December 2004. Retrieved 30 December 2017.
  5. ^abPrime ministers' rank and file,The Age, 18 December 2004. Retrieved 30 December 2017.
  6. ^abStrangio, Paul (February 2022)."Prime-ministerial leadership rankings: the Australian experience"(PDF).Australian Journal of Political Science.57 (2):180–198.doi:10.1080/10361146.2022.2040426.S2CID 247112944.
  7. ^"Nielsen Australia – News – Press Releases – Latest ACNielsen Poll". Au.acnielsen.com. Archived fromthe original on 27 June 2006. Retrieved10 June 2012.
  8. ^"Kevin Rudd rivals Bob Hawke in polls | Herald/Neilsen poll". Brisbanetimes.com.au. 30 March 2009. Retrieved10 June 2012.
  9. ^ab"Federal Newspoll Archive". Retrieved3 July 2022 – via Infogram.
  10. ^"Polls Show Gillard/Labor In More Trouble". Smh.com.au. 16 May 2011. Retrieved10 June 2012.

Further reading

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  • Strangio, Paul.Evaluating prime-ministerial performance: The Australian experience (Oxford University Press, 2013)online.
  • Strangio, Paul. "Prime-ministerial leadership rankings: the Australian experience."Australian Journal of Political Science (2022): 1–19.
  • Strangio, Paul, Paul'T. Hart, and James Walter.Settling the Office: The Australian Prime Ministership from Federation to Reconstruction (Melbourne Univ. Publishing, 2016).
  • Strangio, Paul, Paul'T. Hart, and James Walter.The pivot of power: Australian prime ministers and political leadership, 1949–2016 (Melbourne Univ. Publishing, 2017).

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