Moore's law is an example of futurology; it is a statistical collection of past and present trends with the goal of accuratelyextrapolating future trends.
Futures studies,futures research orfuturology is the systematic,interdisciplinary andholistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such asforecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives.[1][2][3] In general, it can be considered as a branch of thesocial sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies (colloquially called "futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends.[4]
Unlike the physical sciences where a narrower, more specified system is studied, futurology concerns a much bigger and more complex world system. Themethodology and knowledge are much less proven than innatural science andsocial sciences like sociology and economics. There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science, and it is sometimes described aspseudoscience;[5][6] nevertheless, the Association of Professional Futurists was formed in 2002,[7] developing a Foresight Competency Model in 2017,[8] and it is now possible to study it academically, for example at theFU Berlin in their master's course.[9] To encourage inclusive and cross-disciplinary discussions about futures studies,UNESCO declared December 2 as World Futures Day.[10]
Futurology is aninterdisciplinary field that aggregates and analyzes trends, with both lay and professional methods, to compose possible futures. It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in an attempt to develop foresight. Around the world the field is variously referred to asfutures studies,futures research,strategic foresight,futuristics,futures thinking,[11]futuring, andfuturology. Futures studies and strategic foresight are the academic field's most commonly used terms in the English-speaking world.[12]
Foresight was the original term and was first used in this sense byH. G. Wells in 1932.[13] "Futurology" is a term common in encyclopedias, though it is used almost exclusively by nonpractitioners today, at least in the English-speaking world. "Futurology" is defined as the "study of the future".[14] The term was coined by German professorOssip K. Flechtheim in the mid-1940s, who proposed it as a new branch of knowledge that would include a new science ofprobability. This term has fallen from favor in recent decades because modern practitioners stress the importance of alternative, plausible, preferable and plural futures, rather than one monolithic future, and the limitations of prediction and probability, versus the creation of possible and preferable futures.[15]
Three factors usually distinguish futures studies from the research conducted by other disciplines (although all of these disciplines overlap, to differing degrees). First, futures studies often examines trends to compose possible, probable, and preferable futures along with the role "wild cards" can play on future scenarios. Second, futures studies typically attempts to gain aholistic orsystemic view based on insights from a range of different disciplines, generally focusing on the STEEP[16] categories of Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political. Third, futures studies challenges and unpacks the assumptions behind dominant and contending views of the future. The future thus is not empty but fraught with hidden assumptions. For example, many people expect the collapse of the Earth's ecosystem in the near future, while others believe the current ecosystem will survive indefinitely. A foresight approach would seek to analyze and highlight the assumptions underpinning such views.
As a field, futures studies expands on the research component, by emphasizing the communication of a strategy and the actionable steps needed to implement the plan or plans leading to the preferable future. It is in this regard, that futures studies evolves from an academic exercise to a more traditional business-like practice, looking to better prepare organizations for the future.
Futures studies does not generally focus on short term predictions such as interest rates over the nextbusiness cycle, or of managers or investors with short-term time horizons. Most strategic planning, which develops goals and objectives with time horizons of one to three years, is also not considered futures. Plans and strategies with longer time horizons that specifically attempt to anticipate possible future events are definitely part of the field. Learning about medium and long-term developments may at times be observed from their early signs.[17] As a rule, futures studies is generally concerned with changes of transformative impact, rather than those of an incremental or narrow scope.
The futures field also excludes those who make future predictions through professedsupernatural means.
To complete a futures study, a domain is selected for examination. The domain is the main idea of the project, or what the outcome of the project seeks to determine. Domains can have a strategic or exploratory focus and must narrow down the scope of the research. It examines what will, and more importantly, will not be discussed in the research.Futures practitioners study trends focusing on STEEP (Social, Technological, Economic, Environments and Political) baselines. Baseline exploration examine current STEEP environments to determine normal trends, called baselines. Next, practitioners use scenarios to explore different futures outcomes. Scenarios examine how the future can be different.1. Collapse Scenarios seek to answer: What happens if the STEEP baselines fall into ruin and no longer exist? How will that impact STEEP categories?2. Transformation Scenarios: explore futures with the baseline of society transiting to a "new" state. How are the STEEP categories effected if society has a whole new structure?3. New Equilibrium: examines an entire change to the structure of the domain. What happens if the baseline changes to a "new" baseline within the same structure of society?[18]
Advances in mathematics in the 17th century prompted attempts to calculate statistical andprobabilistic concepts.Objectivity became linked to knowledge that could be expressed in numerical data. In 18th century Britain, investors established mathematical formulas to assess the future value of anasset. In 1758 the French economistFrançois Quesnay proceeded to establish a quantitative model of the entire economy, known as theTableau Economique, so that futureproduction could be planned. Meanwhile,Anne Robert Jacques Turgot first articulated thelaw of diminishing returns. In 1793 the Chinese bureaucratHong Liangji forecasted futurepopulation growth.[21]
TheIndustrial Revolution was on the verge of spreading across the European continent, when in 1798Thomas Malthus publishedAn essay on the principle of Population as it affects the Future Improvement of Society. Malthus questioned optimistic utopias and theories ofprogress. Malthus' fear about the survival of the human race is regarded as an early Europeandystopia.[22] Starting in the 1830s,Auguste Comte developed theories ofsocial evolution and claimed thatmetapatterns could be discerned in social change.[23] In the 1870sHerbert Spencer blended Compte's theories withCharles Darwin'sbiological evolution theory.Social Darwinism became popular in Europe and the USA. By the late 19th century, the belief in human progress and the triumph ofscientific invention prevailed and science fiction became a popular future narrative. In 1888William Morris publishedNews from Nowhere, in which he theorized about howworking time could be reduced.[24]
Title page of Wells'sThe War That Will End War (1914)
The BritishH. G. Wells established the genre of "true science fiction" at the turn of the century. Well's works were supposedly based on sound scientific knowledge. Wells became a forerunner of social and technological forecasting. A series of techno-optimistic newspaper articles and books were published between 1890 and 1914 in the US and Europe.[25] AfterWorld War I the ItalianFuturism movement led byFilippo Tommaso Marinetti glorifiedmodernity. Soviet futurists, such asVladimir Mayakovsky,David Burliuk, andVasily Kamensky struggled against official communist cultural policy throughout the 20th century. In Japan, futurists gained traction after World War I by denouncing theMeiji era and glorifying speed and technological progress.[26]
With the end ofWorld War I interest in statistical forecasting intensified.[27] In statistics, aforecast is a calculation of a future event's magnitude orprobability. Forecasting calculates the future, while anestimate attempts to establish the value of an existingquantity.[28] In the United States, PresidentHoover established a Research Committee on Social Trends in 1929 headed byWilliam F. Ogburn. Past statistics were used to chart trends and project those trends into the future.Planning became part of the political decision-making process afterWorld War II ascapitalist andcommunist governments across the globe produced predictive forecasts.[27] TheRAND Corporation was founded in 1945 to assist the US military with post-war planning. The long-term planning of military and industrialCold War efforts peaked in the 1960s whenpeace research emerged as a counter-movement[29] and thepositivist idea of "the one predictable future" was called into question.[30]
In 1954Robert Jungk published a critique of the US and the supposed colonization of the future inTomorrow is already Here.Fred L. Polak publishedImages of the Future in 1961, it has become a classic text on imagining alternative futures.[31] In the 1960s, human-centered methods of future studies were developed in Europe byBertrand de Jouvenel andJohan Galtung. Thepositivist idea of a single future was challenged by scientists such asThomas Kuhn,Karl Popper, andJürgen Habermas.[32] Future studies established itself as an academic field whensocial scientists began to question positivism as a plausible theory of knowledge and instead turned topluralism. At the 1967 First international Future Research Conference" inOslo research onurban sprawl,hunger, and education was presented. In 1968Olaf Helmer of theRAND Corporation conceded "One begins to realize that there is a wealth of possible futures and that these possibilities can be shaped in different ways". Future studies worked on the basis that a multitude of possible futures could be estimated, forecast, and manipulated.[33]
The 1972 reportThe Limits to Growth establishedenvironmental degradation firmly on the political agenda. Theenvironmental movement demanded of industry and policymakers to consider long-term implications when planning and investing inpower plants and infrastructure.[38]
The 1990s saw a surge in futures studies in preparation for the United Nations'Millennium Development Goals, which were adopted in 2000 asinternational developmentgoals for the year 2015. Throughout the 1990s large technology foresight programs were launched which informed national and regional strategies on science, technology andinnovation.[39] Prior to the 1990sforesight was rarely used to describe future studies, futurology orforecasting. Foresight prognosis relied in part on the methodologies developed by the French pioneers ofprospectives research, includingBertrand de Jouvenel. Foresight practitioners attempted to gather and evaluate evidence based insights for the future. Foresight research output focused on identifying challenges and opportunities, which was presented as intelligence at a strategic level. Practitioners tended to focus on particular companies or economic regions, while making no attempt to plan for specific problems.[40]
In the 1990s several future studies practitioners attempted to synthesize a coherent framework for the futures studies research field, includingWendell Bell's two-volume work,The Foundations of Futures Studies, andZiauddin Sardar'sRescuing all of our Futures.[41]
Futures techniques or methodologies may be viewed as "frameworks for making sense of data generated by structured processes to think about the future".[42] There is no single set of methods that are appropriate for all futures research. Different futures researchers intentionally or unintentionally promote use of favored techniques over a more structured approach. Selection of methods for use on futures research projects has so far been dominated by the intuition and insight of practitioners; but can better identify a balanced selection of techniques via acknowledgement of foresight as a process together with familiarity with the fundamental attributes of most commonly used methods.[43]
Futurology is sometimes described by scientists as apseudoscience,[5][6] as it often deals with speculative scenarios and long-term predictions that can be difficult to test using traditional scientific methods.
Futurists use a diverse range of forecasting and foresight methods including:
The aim of anexecutive officer when engaging in future management is to assist people and organizations to comprehend the future. Executive officers who work for a business organization will want to understand the future better than thecompetitors of their employer. Therefore future management is a systematic process and results in a leading edge.[48]
Futurists use scenarios to map alternative possible futures. Scenario planning is a structured examination of a variety of hypothetical futures. In the 21st century alternative possible future planning has been a powerful tool for understanding social-ecological systems because the future is uncertain. Questions are posed to scientists, business owners, government officials, landowners, and nonprofit representatives to establish a development plan for an urban area, region, industry, or economy.[49]
However, alternative possible futures loose credibility, should they be entirely utopian or dystopian. One of those stages involves the study of emerging issues, such asmegatrends,trends andweak signals. Megatrends are major long-term phenomena that change slowly, are often interlinked and cannot be transformed in an instant.[50] Many corporations use futurists as part of theirrisk management strategy, forhorizon scanning and emerging issues analysis, and to identifywild cards.[51] Understanding a range of possibilities can enhance the recognition of opportunities and threats. Every successful and unsuccessful business engages in futuring to some degree—for example in research and development, innovation and market research, anticipating competitor behavior and so on.[52][53] Role-playing is another way that possible futures can be collectively explored, as in the research labCivilization's Waiting Room.[54]
In futures research "weak signals" may be understood as advanced, noisy and socially situated indicators of change in trends and systems that constitute raw informational material for enabling anticipatory action. There is some confusion about the definition of weak signal by various researchers and consultants. Sometimes it is referred as future oriented information, sometimes more like emerging issues. The confusion has been partly clarified with the concept 'the future sign', by separating signal, issue and interpretation of the future sign.[55]
A weak signal can be an early indicator of coming change, and an example might also help clarify the confusion. On May 27, 2012, hundreds of people gathered for a "Take the Flour Back" demonstration at Rothamsted Research in Harpenden, UK, to oppose a publicly funded trial of genetically modified wheat. This was a weak signal for a broader shift in consumer sentiment against genetically modified foods. When Whole Foods mandated the labeling of GMOs in 2013, this non-GMO idea had already become a trend and was about to be a topic of mainstream awareness.
"Wild cards" refer to low-probability and high-impact events "that happen quickly" and "have huge sweeping consequences", and materialize too quickly for social systems to effectively respond.[56] Elina Hiltunen notes that wild cards are not new, though they have become more prevalent.[57] One reason for this may be the increasingly fast pace of change.[58] Oliver Markley proposed four types of wild cards:[59]
Type I Wild Card: low probability, high impact, high credibility
Type II Wild Card: high probability, high impact, low credibility
Type III Wild Card: high probability, high impact, disputed credibility
Type IV Wild Card: high probability, high impact, high credibility
He posits that it is important to track the emergence of "Type II Wild Cards" that have a high probability of occurring, but low credibility that it will happen. This focus is especially important to note because it is often difficult to persuade people to accept something they do not believe is happening, until they see the wild card. An example is climate change. This hypothesis has gone from Type I (high impact and high credibility, but low probability where science was accepted and thought unlikely to happen) to Type II (high probability, high impact, but low credibility as policy makers and lobbyists push back against the science), to Type III (high probability, high impact, disputed credibility) — at least for most people: There are still some who probably will not accept the science until the Greenland ice sheet has completely melted and sea-level has risen the seven meters estimated rise.
This concept may be embedded in standard foresight projects and introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to increase the ability of social groups adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business environments. Such sudden and unique incidents might constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. Wild cards may or may not be announced by weak signals, which are incomplete and fragmented data from which relevant foresight information might be inferred. Sometimes, mistakenly, wild cards and weak signals are considered as synonyms, which they are not.[60] One of the most often cited examples of a wild card event in recent history is 9/11. Nothing had happened in the past that could point to such a possibility and yet it had a huge impact on everyday life in the United States, from simple tasks like how to travel via airplane to deeper cultural values. Wild card events might also be natural disasters, such asHurricane Katrina, which can force the relocation of huge populations and wipe out entire crops or completely disrupt the supply chain of many businesses. Although wild card events cannot be predicted, after they occur it is often easy to reflect back and convincingly explain why they happened.
A long-running tradition in various cultures, and especially in the media, involves various spokespersons making predictions for the upcoming year at the beginning of the year. Thesepredictions are thought-provokers, which sometimes base themselves on current trends in culture (music, movies, fashion, politics). Sometimes these predictions are hopeful guesses about what major events might take place over the course of the next year.
When predicted events fail to take place, the authors of the predictions may state that misinterpretation of the "signs" andomens that they evidently managed to observe themselves.Marketers have increasingly started to embrace futures studies, in an effort to benefit from an increasingly competitive marketplace with fastproduction cycles.
Trends come in different sizes. A megatrend extends over many generations, and in cases of climate, megatrends can cover periods prior to human existence. They describe complex interactions between many factors. The increase in population from thepalaeolithic period to the present provides an example. Megatrends are likely to produce greater change than any previous one, because technology is causing trends to unfold at an accelerating pace.[61] The concept was popularized by the 1982 book Megatrends by futuristJohn Naisbitt.[62]
Possible new trends grow from innovations, projects, beliefs or actions and activism that have the potential to grow and eventually go mainstream in the future.
Among potential future scenarios,s-risks (short for risks of astronomical suffering) highlight the importance of considering outcomes where advanced technologies or large-scale systems result in immense suffering. These risks may arise from unintended consequences, such as poorly aligned artificial intelligence, or deliberate actions, like malicious misuse of technology. Addressing s-risks involves ethical foresight and robust frameworks to prevent scenarios where suffering could persist or multiply across vast scales, including inspace exploration orsimulated realities. This focus expands the scope of future studies, emphasizing not just survival but the quality of life in possible futures.[63]
Very often, trends relate to one another the same way as a tree-trunk relates to branches and twigs. For example, a well-documented movement toward equality between men and women might represent a branch trend. The trend toward reducing differences in the salaries of men and women in the Western world could form a twig on that branch.
Understanding the technology adoption cycle helps futurists monitor trend development. Trends start as weak signals by small mentions in fringe media outlets, discussion conversations or blog posts, often by innovators. As these ideas, projects, beliefs or technologies gain acceptance, they move into the phase of early adopters.In the beginning of a trend's development, it is difficult to tell if it will become a significant trend that creates changes or merely a trendy fad that fades into forgotten history. Trends will emerge as initially unconnected dots but eventually coalesce into persistent change.[64]
Consumption trend development has changed significantly in the 19th century and throughout the 20th century becausedeveloped countries are now rules by ameritocracy, not thearistocracy. Consumers who are able to pay for a product that is available for purchase do not necessarily take into account the lifestyle choices of high income earners. Therefore trend may bubble up or trickle down. However, when it comes to the diffusion of innovation andtechnology adoption life cycle various tools are used. Includingmeme theory andtipping point.[65]
Gartner created theirhype cycle to illustrate the phases a technology moves through as it grows from research and development to mainstream adoption. The unrealistic expectations and subsequent disillusionment that virtual reality experienced in the 1990s and early 2000s is an example of the middle phases encountered before a technology can begin to be integrated into society.[66]
Education in the field of futures studies has taken place for some time. Beginning in the United States in the 1960s, it has since developed in many different countries. Futures education encourages the use of concepts, tools and processes that allow students to think long-term, consequentially, and imaginatively. It generally helps students to:
conceptualize more just and sustainable human and planetary futures.
develop knowledge and skills of methods and tools used to help people understand, map, and influence the future by exploring probable and preferred futures.
understand the dynamics and influence that human, social and ecological systems have on alternative futures.
conscientizeresponsibility and action on the part of students toward creating better futures.
Thorough documentation of the history of futures education exists, for example in the work ofRichard A. Slaughter (2004),[67] David Hicks, Ivana Milojević[68] to name a few.
While futures studies remains a relatively new academic tradition, numerous tertiary institutions around the world teach it. These vary from small programs, or universities with just one or two classes, to programs that offer certificates and incorporate futures studies into other degrees, (for example inplanning, business, environmental studies, economics, development studies, science and technology studies). Various formal Masters-level programs exist on six continents. Finally, doctoral dissertations around the world have incorporated futures studies (see e.g. Rohrbeck, 2010;[69] von der Gracht, 2008;[70] Hines, 2012[71]). A recent survey documented approximately 50 cases of futures studies at the tertiary level.[72]
A Futures Studies program is offered atTamkang University, Taiwan. Futures Studies is a required course at the undergraduate level, with between three and five thousand students taking classes on an annual basis. Housed in the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies is an MA Program. Only ten students are accepted annually in the program. Associated with the program is theJournal of Futures Studies.[73]
The longest running Future Studies program in North America was established in 1975 at theUniversity of Houston–Clear Lake.[74] It moved to theUniversity of Houston in 2007 and renamed the degree to Foresight. The program was established on the belief that if history is studied and taught in an academic setting, then so should the future. Its mission is to prepare professional futurists. The curriculum incorporates a blend of the essential theory, a framework and methods for doing the work, and a focus on application for clients in business, government, nonprofits, and society in general.[75]
As of 2003, over 40 tertiary education establishments around the world were delivering one or more courses in futures studies. TheWorld Futures Studies Federation[76] has a comprehensive survey of global futures programs and courses. The Acceleration Studies Foundation maintains an annotated list of primary and secondary graduate futures studies programs.[77]
Several corporations and government agencies use foresight products to both better understand potential risks and prepare for potential opportunities as an anticipatory approach. Several government agencies publish material for internal stakeholders as well as make that material available to broader public. Examples of this include the US Congressional Budget Office long term budget projections,[81] the National Intelligence Center,[82] and the United Kingdom Government Office for Science.[83] Much of this material is used by policy makers to inform policy decisions and government agencies to develop long-term plan. Several corporations, particularly those with long product development lifecycles, use foresight and future studies products and practitioners in the development of their business strategies. The Shell Corporation is one such entity.[84] Foresight professionals and their tools are increasingly being used in both the private and public areas to help leaders deal with an increasingly complex and interconnected world.
Imperial cycles represent an "expanding pulsation" of "mathematically describable" macro-historic trend.[85]
Chinese philosopherKang Youwei and French demographerGeorges Vacher de Lapouge stressed in the late 19th century that the trend cannot proceed indefinitely on the finite surface of the globe. The trend is bound to culminate in a world empire. Kang Youwei predicted that the matter will be decided in a contest between Washington and Berlin; Vacher de Lapouge foresaw this contest as being between the United States and Russia and wagered the odds were in the United States' favour.[86] Both published their futures studies beforeH. G. Wells introduced the science of future in hisAnticipations (1901).
Four later anthropologists—Hornell Hart,Raoul Naroll, Louis Morano, andRobert Carneiro—researched the expanding imperial cycles. They reached the same conclusion that a world empire is not only pre-determined but close at hand and attempted to estimate the time of its appearance.[87]
As foresight has expanded to include a broader range of social concerns all levels and types of education have been addressed, including formal and informal education. Many countries are beginning to implement Foresight in their Education policy. A few programs are listed below:
Finland's FinnSight 2015[88] – Implementation began in 2006 and though at the time was not referred to as "Foresight" they tend to display the characteristics of a foresight program.
Singapore's Ministry of Education Master plan for Information Technology in Education[89] – This third Masterplan continues what was built on in the 1st and 2nd plans to transform learning environments to equip students to compete in aknowledge economy.
The World Future Society, founded in 1966, is the largest and longest-running community of futurists in the world. WFS established and built futurism from the ground up—through publications, global summits, and advisory roles to world leaders in business and government.[90]
By the early 2000s, educators began to independently institute futures studies (sometimes referred to as futures thinking) lessons in K-12 classroom environments.[91] To meet the need, non-profit futures organizations designed curriculum plans to supply educators with materials on the topic. Many of the curriculum plans were developed to meetcommon core standards. Futures studies education methods for youth typically include age-appropriate collaborative activities, games,systems thinking and scenario building exercises.[92]
There are several organizations devoted to furthering the advancement of Foresight and Future Studies worldwide.Teach the Future emphasizes foresight educational practices appropriate for K-12 schools. Warmer Sun Education is a global online learning community for K-12 students and their parents to learn aboutexponential progress,emerging technologies and their applications and exploring possible pathways to solvehumanity's grand challenges. The University of Houston has a Master's (MS) level graduate program through the College of Technology as well as a certificate program for those interested in advanced studies. The Department of Political Science and College of Social Sciences at the University of Hawaii Manoa has the Hawaii Research Center for Future Studies which offers a Master's (MA) in addition to a Doctorate (PhD).
Wendell Bell and Ed Cornish acknowledge science fiction as a catalyst to future studies, conjuring up visions of tomorrow.[93] Science fiction's potential to provide an "imaginative social vision" is its contribution to futures studies and public perspective. Productive sci-fi presents plausible, normative scenarios.[93] Jim Dator attributes the foundational concepts of "images of the future" to Wendell Bell, for clarifying Fred Polak's concept in Images of the Future, as it applies to futures studies.[94][95] Similar to futures studies' scenarios thinking, empirically supported visions of the future are a window into what the future could be. However, unlike in futures studies, most science fiction works present a single alternative, unless the narrative deals with multiple timelines or alternative realities, such as in the works ofPhilip K. Dick, and a multitude of small and big screen works.[96] Pamela Sargent states, "Science fiction reflects attitudes typical of this century." She gives a brief history of impactful sci-fi publications, likeThe Foundation Trilogy byIsaac Asimov, andStarship Troopers byRobert A. Heinlein.[97] Alternate perspectives validate sci-fi as part of the fuzzy "images of the future".[95]
Brian David Johnson is a futurist and author who uses science fiction to help build the future. He has been a futurist at Intel, and is now the resident futurist at Arizona State University. "His work is called 'future casting'—using ethnographic field studies, technology research, trend data, and even science fiction to create a pragmatic vision of consumers and computing." Brian David Johnson has developed a practical guide to using science fiction as a tool for futures studies.Science fiction prototyping combines the past with the present, including interviews with notable science fiction authors to provide the tools needed to "design the future with science fiction."
Pick your science concept and build an imaginative world
The scientific inflection point
The consequences, for better, or worse, or both, of the science or technology on the people and your world
The human inflection point
Reflection, what did we learn?
"A full Science Fiction Prototyping (SFP) is 6–12 pages long, with a popular structure being; an introduction, background work, the fictional story (the bulk of the SFP), a short summary and a summary (reflection). Most often science fiction prototypes extrapolate current science forward and, therefore, include a set of references at the end."[98]
Ian Miles reviewsThe New Encyclopedia of Science Fiction, identifying ways Science Fiction and Futures Studies "cross-fertilize, as well as the ways in which they differ distinctly." Science Fiction cannot be simply considered fictionalized Futures Studies. It may have aims other than foresight or "prediction, and be no more concerned with shaping the future than any other genre of literature."[99] It is not to be understood as an explicit pillar of futures studies, due to its inconsistency of integrated futures research. Additionally, Dennis Livingston, a literature and Futures journal critic says, "The depiction of truly alternative societies has not been one of science fiction's strong points, especially" preferred, normative envisages.[100] The strengths of the genre as a form of futurist thinking are discussed by Tom Lombardo, who argues that select science fiction "combines a highly detailed and concrete level of realism with theoretical speculation on the future", "addresses all the main dimensions of the future and synthesizes all these dimensions into integrative visions of the future", and "reflects contemporary and futurist thinking", therefore it "can be viewed as the mythology of the future."[101]
It is notable that although there are no hard limits on horizons in future studies and foresight efforts, typical future horizons explored are within the realm of the practical and do not span more than a few decades.[102] Nevertheless, there are hard science fiction works that can be applicable as visioning exercises that span longer periods of time when the topic is of a significant time scale, such as is in the case ofKim Stanley Robinson'sMars trilogy, which deals with theterraforming of Mars and extends two centuries forward through the early 23rd century.[103] In fact, there is some overlap between science fiction writers and professional futurists such as in the case ofDavid Brin.[104][105] Arguably, the work of science fiction authors has seeded many ideas that have later been developed (be it technological or social in nature)—from early works of Jules Verne and H.G. Wells to the laterArthur C. Clarke andWilliam Gibson.[106][107] Beyond literary works, futures studies and futurists have influenced film and TV works. The 2002 movie adaptation of Philip K. Dick's short story,Minority Report, had a group of consultants to build a realistic vision of the future, including futurist Peter Schwartz.[108] TV shows such as HBO'sWestworld and Channel 4/Netflix'sBlack Mirror follow many of the rules of futures studies to build the world, the scenery and storytelling in a way futurists would in experiential scenarios and works.[109][110]
Science Fiction novels for Futurists:
William Gibson,Neuromancer, Ace Books, 1984. (Pioneering cyberpunk novel)
Kim Stanley Robinson,Red Mars, Spectra, 1993. (Story on the founding a colony on Mars)
Bruce Sterling,Heavy Weather, Bantam, 1994. (Story about a world with drastically altered climate and weather)
Iain Banks'Culture novels (Space operas in distance future with thoughtful treatments of advanced AI)
Several governments have formalized strategic foresight agencies to encourage long range strategic societal planning, with most notable are the governments of Singapore, Finland, and the United Arab Emirates. Other governments with strategic foresight agencies include Canada's Policy Horizons Canada and theMalaysia's Malaysian Foresight Institute.
The Singapore government'sCentre for Strategic Futures (CSF) is part of the Strategy Group within the Prime Minister's Office. Their mission is to position the Singapore government to navigate emerging strategic challenges and harness potential opportunities.[111] Singapore's early formal efforts in strategic foresight began in 1991 with the establishment of the Risk Detection and Scenario Planning Office in the Ministry of Defence.[112] In addition to the CSF, the Singapore government has established the Strategic Futures Network, which brings together deputy secretary-level officers and foresight units across the government to discuss emerging trends that may have implications for Singapore.[112]
Since the 1990s, Finland has integrated strategic foresight within the parliament and Prime Minister's Office.[113] The government is required to present a "Report of the Future" each parliamentary term for review by the parliamentary Committee for the Future. Led by the Prime Minister's Office, the Government Foresight Group coordinates the government's foresight efforts.[113] Futures research is supported by the Finnish Society for Futures Studies (established in 1980), the Finland Futures Research Centre (established in 1992), and the Finland Futures Academy (established in 1998) in coordination with foresight units in various government agencies.[113]
The annual Dubai Future Forum conference (2024)
In the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, announced in September 2016 that all government ministries were to appoint Directors of Future Planning. Sheikh Mohammed described the UAE Strategy for the Future as an "integrated strategy to forecast our nation's future, aiming to anticipate challenges and seize opportunities".[114] The Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and Future (MOCAF) is mandated with crafting the UAE Strategy for the Future and is responsible for the portfolio of the future of UAE.[115] Since 2002, the UAE has hosted theDubai Future Forum at theMuseum of the Future, which it claims is the largest gathering of futurists in the world.[116]
In 2018, the United States General Accountability Office (GAO) created the Center for Strategic Foresight to enhance its ability to "serve as the agency's principal hub for identifying, monitoring, and analyzing emerging issues facing policymakers." The center is composed of non-resident Fellows who are considered leading experts in foresight, planning and future thinking.[117] In September 2019 they hosted a conference on space policy and "deep fake" synthetic media to manipulate online and real-world interactions.[118]
1932 Shell advertisement poster by the British surrealist painterPaul Nash
Foresight is a framework or lens which could be used in risk analysis and management in a medium- to long-term time range. A typical formal foresight project would identify key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the scope of analysis.[119] One classic example of such work was how foresight work at the Royal Dutch Shell international oil company led to envision the turbulent oil prices of the 1970s as a possibility and better embed this into company planning. Yet the practice at Shell focuses on stretching the company's thinking rather than in making predictions. Its planning is meant to link and embed scenarios in "organizational processes such as strategy making, innovation, risk management, public affairs, and leadership development."[120]
Futurists are practitioners of the foresight profession, which seeks to provide organizations and individuals with images of the future to help them prepare for contingencies and to maximize opportunities. A foresight project begins with a question that ponders the future of any given subject area, including technology, medicine, government and business. Futurists engage in environmental scanning to search for drivers of change and emerging trends that may have an effect on the focus topic. The scanning process includes reviewing social media platforms, researching already prepared reports, engaging in Delphi studies, reading articles and any other sources of relevant information and preparing and analyzing data extrapolations. Then, through one of a number of highly structured methods[124] futurists organize this information and use it to create multiple future scenarios for the topic, also known as a domain. The value of preparing many different versions of the future rather than a singular prediction is that they provide a client with the ability to prepare long-range plans that will weather and optimize a variety of contexts.[125]
The Association for Professional Futurists recognizes the Most Significant Futures Works for the purpose of identifying and rewarding the work of foresight professionals and others whose work illuminates aspects of the future.[126]
^"Futurology".Wordnet Search 3.1. Princeton University. Retrieved16 March 2013.
^abFuturology-Oxford Dictionary. 2008.Mainly a pseudo-science, given the complexities of social, political, economic, technological, and natural factors.
^Paul, Heike, ed. (2019).Critical Terms in Futures Studies. Springer International Publishing. p. 128.ISBN9783030289874.
^Gidley, Jennifer (2017).The Future: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. p. 37.ISBN9780198735281.
^Gidley, Jennifer (2017).The Future: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. p. 38.ISBN9780198735281.
^Gidley, Jennifer (2017).The Future: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. pp. 38–39.ISBN9780198735281.
^Gidley, Jennifer (2017).The Future: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. p. 40.ISBN9780198735281.
^Paul, Heike, ed. (2019).Critical Terms in Futures Studies. Springer International Publishing. p. 133.ISBN9783030289874.
^abGidley, Jennifer (2017).The Future: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. p. 42.ISBN9780198735281.
^Paul, Heike, ed. (2019).Critical Terms in Futures Studies. Springer International Publishing. p. 127.ISBN9783030289874.
^Gidley, Jennifer (2017).The Future: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. p. 43.ISBN9780198735281.
^Gidley, Jennifer (2017).The Future: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. p. 46.ISBN9780198735281.
^Gidley, Jennifer (2017).The Future: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. p. 51.ISBN9780198735281.
^Gidley, Jennifer (2017).The Future: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. p. 52.ISBN9780198735281.
^Gidley, Jennifer (2017).The Future: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. p. 54.ISBN9780198735281.
^Brassett, Jamie; O'Reilly, John, eds. (2021).A Creative Philosophy of Anticipation. Taylor & Francis. p. 129.ISBN9781000376081.
^Hester, Ryan (2018).Historical Research: Theory and Methods. EDTECH. pp. 115–116.ISBN9781839474187.
^McAule, John; Duberley, Joanne; Johnson, Phil (2007).Organization Theory: Challenges and Perspectives. Prentice Hall/Financial Times. p. 210.ISBN9780273687740.
^Brassett, Jamie; O'Reilly, John, eds. (2021).A Creative Philosophy of Anticipation. Taylor & Francis. pp. 129–130.ISBN9781000376081.
^Miles, Ian; Saritas, Ozcan; Sokolov, Alexander, eds. (2016).Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation. Springer International Publishing. pp. 1–2.ISBN9783319325743.
^Miles, Ian; Saritas, Ozcan; Sokolov, Alexander, eds. (2016).Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation. Springer International Publishing. p. 2.ISBN9783319325743.
^Miles, Ian; Saritas, Ozcan; Sokolov, Alexander, eds. (2016).Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation. Springer International Publishing. p. 4.ISBN9783319325743.
^Hester, Ryan (2018).Historical Research: Theory and Methods. EDTECH. p. 116.ISBN9781839474187.
^Pero Micic (2010).The Five Futures Glasses: How to See and Understand More of the Future with the Eltville Model. Palgrave Macmillan UK. p. 14.ISBN9780230275317.
^Rohrbeck, Rene (2010)Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm, Springer Series: Contributions to Management Science, Heidelberg and New York,ISBN978-3-7908-2625-8
^Hiltunen, Elina (November 2006). "Was it Wild Card or Just Our Blindness to Gradual Change?".Journal of Futures Studies.11 (2):61–74.
^Petersen (1999). "Out of the Blue: How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises (as referenced in Hiltunen, Elina, Was it Wild Card or Just Our Blindness to Gradual Change?)".Journal of Futures Studies.11 (2):61–74.
^Markley, Oliver (2011). "A new methodology for anticipating STEEP surprises".Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 78(2011) (6):1079–1097.doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.01.008.S2CID53690126.
^"Journal of Future Studies". Tamsui, Taipei, Taiwan.: Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamkang University. Archived fromthe original on 2007-12-08. Retrieved2008-01-20.
^Teaching about the Future, by Peter C. Bishop and Andy Hines, 2012
^Hines. A. (2014, September/October). A training ground for professional futurists.The Futurist, 43.
^Hornell Hart, "The Logistic Growth of Political Areas",Social Forces, 26, (1948): 396–7;Raoul Naroll, "Imperial Cycles and World Order",Peace Research Society, 7, (1967): 100–101.
^K'ang Yu-wei,The One World Philosophy, (tr. Thompson, Lawrence G., London, 1958), pp 79–80, 85; GeorgeVacher de Lapouge,L'Aryen: Son Rôle Social, (Nantes: 1899), chapter "L`Avenir des Aryens."
^Hornell, Hart, "The Logistic Growth of Political Areas",Social Forces, 26, (1948): 396–408;Raoul, Naroll, "Imperial Cycles and World Order",Peace Research Society, 7, (1967): 83–101;Louis A., Marano, "A Macrohistoric Trend Towards World Government",Behavior Science Notes, 8, (1973): 35–40;Robert Carneiro, "Political Expansion as an Expression of the Principle of Competitive Exclusion",Studying War: Anthropological Perspective, eds. Reyna, Stephen P. & Dawns, Richard Erskine, Gordon and Breach, New Hampshire, 1994;Robert Carneiro, "The Political Unification of the World",Cross Cultural Survey, 38/2, (2004), 162–177.
^abcBoston, Jonathan (2017).Governing for the Future: Designing Democratic Institutions for a Better Tomorrow (2017 ed.). Bradford, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited. pp. 403–420.ISBN978-1-78635-056-5.
^"UAE Future Strategy"(PDF).United Arab Emirates Ministry of Cabinet Affairs & The Future. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on 25 February 2017. Retrieved24 February 2017.
^Steinmuller, Karlheinz; Petersen, John L. (2009).Futures Research Methodology. The Millenium Project.
^Hines, Andy (14 August 2017). "Framework foresight for exploring emerging student needs".On the Horizon.25 (3):145–156.doi:10.1108/OTH-03-2017-0013.
^Sarpong, David; Amst, Martin Nils; Gaspar, Tamás (14 September 2015). "Strategia Sapiens – strategic foresight in a new perspective".Foresight.17 (5):405–426.doi:10.1108/FS-03-2015-0017.
James Gleick, "The Prophet Business" (review ofGlenn Adamson,A Century of Tomorrows: How Imagining the Future Shapes the Present, Bloomsbury, 2024, 336 pp.),The New York Review of Books, vol. LXXII, no. 3 (27 February 2025), pp. 6, 8, 10. "[Glenn] Adamson, having exposed ... strains of failed futurology, suggests nonetheless that we ... should continue to make our best guesses ... always remembering that every prediction is a statement about the present ... For ... fourteen years,Wikipedia has included a[n] entry titled 'Timeline of the Far Future' ... An editor responsible for one recent addition justified it with the comment, 'Adds a bit of hope.' A different editor deleted it a few seconds later." (p. 10).
