Ininternational relations, afrozen conflict is a situation in whichactive armed conflict has been brought to an end, but nopeace treaty or other political framework resolves the conflict to the satisfaction of the combatants. Therefore, legally the conflict can start again at any moment, creating an environment of insecurity and instability.
The term has been commonly used forpost-Soviet conflicts, but it has also often been applied to other extended and unresolvedterritorial disputes.[1][2][3] Thede facto situation that emerges may or may not match the official position asserted by either party to the conflict. For example, in theDivision of Korea, bothNorth Korea andSouth Korea officially assert claims to theentire peninsula; however, there exists a well-defined border between the two countries' areas of control.
Frozen conflicts sometimes result inpartially recognized states. For example, theRepublic of South Ossetia, a product of the frozenGeorgian–Ossetian conflict, isrecognized by eight other states, including five UN member states; the other three of these entities are partially-recognized states themselves.
Since aggressors are not defeated, frozen conflicts can be seen asappeasement and rewardingaggression. The Status Quo of Aggression could also be the result of an impasse due to matching military might and can trigger hesitance to take immediate military action, especially action against another great power.[4]
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The Western Sahara conflict has been largely frozen since aceasefire in 1991, although various disturbances such as theIndependence Intifada have broken out since then. Control of the territory ofWestern Sahara remains divided between theKingdom of Morocco and thePolisario Front.[5]
TheAbkhaz–Georgian conflict andGeorgian–Ossetian conflict have led to the creation of two largely unrecognized states within the internationally recognized territory ofGeorgia. The1991–92 South Ossetia War and the1992–93 War in Abkhazia, followed by theRusso-Georgian War of August 2008, have left the Russian-backed republics ofSouth Ossetia andAbkhazia inde facto control of the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions in north and northwest Georgia. These interventions have been interpreted as a Kremlin strategy to destabilize other post-Soviet states and extend Russia's sphere of influence.[6][7]
TheCyprus dispute has been frozen since 1974. The northern part ofCyprus is under thede facto control of theTurkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, but this is not recognized internationally except byTurkey.[8][9]
India andPakistan have fought at least three wars over the disputed region ofKashmir, in1947,1965, and1999. India claims the entire area of the formerprincely state ofJammu & Kashmir on the basis of its ruler formallyacceding to India[citation needed] amidst a Pakistani invasion after partition, and administers approximately 43% of it. Pakistan has also claimed it since the partition, based on its majority Muslim population, and controls approximately 37% of the region while encouragingproxy war tactics in Kashmir.[10][11] The remaining territory is controlled by the People's Republic of China; some of it was occupied during theSino-Indian War, and some was conferred on the PRC by Pakistan.
The Korean conflict was frozen from 1953, when aceasefire ended theKorean War. Both theNorth Korean andSouth Korean governments claim the entireKorean peninsula, whilede facto control is divided along the military demarcation line in theKorean Demilitarized Zone. Both North Korea and South Korea arerecognized by the vast majority of other nations, although they do not recognize each other.
The conflict betweenMainland China andTaiwan has been frozen since 1949. No armistice or peace treaty has ever been signed and debate continues as to whether the civil war has legally ended.[12][13] Officially, both thePeople's Republic of China (PRC) based inBeijing and the Republic of China (ROC) based inTaipei consider themselves to be thesole legitimate government of the entirety of China.[14] While the latter especially is not recognized by a majority of countries and states internationally, it remains ade facto independent administration inTaiwan and several other islands, and the PRC'sde facto administration is in Mainland China,Hong Kong andMacau.
The dispute over the status ofKosovo remains frozen since the end of theKosovo War, fought in 1998–1999 between Yugoslav forces (theFederal Republic of Yugoslavia) and the ethnicallyAlbanianKosovo Liberation Army. The Kosovo region has been administered independently by theUnited Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo since the war. Kosovo unilaterallydeclared its independence fromSerbia in 2008, but it is recognized by 108 UN member states, as Serbia still considers Kosovo part of its territory.[15][16]
Since the ceasefire which ended theTransnistria War (1990–1992), theRussian-influenced breakaway republic ofTransnistria has controlled the easternmost strip of the territory ofMoldova. The republic is internationally unrecognized, and Moldova continues to claim the territory.
TheNagorno-Karabakh conflict was a frozen conflict with periods of full-scale escalations.[17] The dissolution of theRepublic of Artsakh following the2023 Azerbaijani offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh ended this frozen conflict.
TheRusso-Ukrainian war broke out as a Russian reaction to theEuromaidan and the successfulUkrainian Revolution in early 2014. TheWar in Donbas developed into a frozen conflict after the 2015Minsk II agreement, which reduced large-scale fighting but failed to produce a lasting settlement. The front line remained largely static for years, with sporadic clashes and ongoing political deadlock between Ukraine and theRussian-backed separatist forces.[18][19]
The frozen status of the conflict ended in February 2022, when Russia launched afull-scale invasion of Ukraine, dismantling the previous ceasefire framework and escalating the war into an active, nationwide conflict.[20]
Cyprus is more of a frozen conflict, and a long-standing one, than Northern Ireland, where the peace process has in a real sense gone much further down the road to settlement.
