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Financial risk management

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Practice of protecting economic value in a firm by managing exposure to financial risk

Categories of
Financial risk
Credit risk
Market risk
Liquidity risk
Investment risk
Business risk
Profit risk
Non-financial risk

Institutions

Certifications

Financial risk management is the practice of protectingeconomic value in afirm by managing exposure tofinancial risk - principallycredit risk andmarket risk, with more specific variants as listed aside - as well as some aspects ofoperational risk. As forrisk management more generally, financial risk management requires identifying the sources of risk, measuring these, and crafting plans tomitigate them.[1][2] SeeFinance § Risk management for an overview.

Financial risk management as a "science" can be said to have been born[3] withmodern portfolio theory, particularly as initiated by ProfessorHarry Markowitz in 1952 with his article, "Portfolio Selection";[4] seeMathematical finance § Risk and portfolio management: the P world.

The discipline can be qualitative and quantitative; as a specialization ofrisk management, however, financial risk management focuses more on when and how tohedge,[5] often using financial instruments to manage costly exposures to risk.[6]

  • In the banking sector worldwide, theBasel Accords are generally adopted by internationally active banks for tracking, reporting and exposing operational, credit and market risks.[7][8]
  • Within non-financial corporates,[9][10] the scope is broadened to overlapenterprise risk management, and financial risk management then addresses risks to the firm's overallstrategic objectives.
  • Insurers manage their own risks with a focus on solvency and the ability to pay claims.[11] Life Insurers are concerned more with longevity and interest rate risk, while short-Term Insurers emphasizecatastrophe-risk and claims volatility.
  • Ininvestment management[12] risk is managed through diversification and related optimization; while further specific techniques are then applied to the portfolio or to individual stocks as appropriate.

In all cases, the last "line of defence" against risk iscapital, "as it ensures that a firm can continue as agoing concern even if substantial and unexpected losses are incurred".[13]

Economic perspective

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Neoclassicalfinance theory prescribes that (1) a firm should take on a project only if it increasesshareholder value.[14] Further, the theory suggests that (2)firm managers cannot create value for shareholders orinvestors by taking on projects that shareholders could do for themselves at the same cost; seeTheory of the firm andFisher separation theorem.

Given these, there is therefore a fundamental debate relating to "Risk Management" andshareholder value.[5][15][16] The discussion essentially weighs the value of risk management in a market versus the cost ofbankruptcy in that market: per theModigliani and Miller framework, hedging is irrelevant since diversified shareholders are assumed to not care about firm-specific risks, whereas, on the other hand hedging is seen to create value in that it reduces theprobability of financial distress.

When applied to financial risk management, this implies that firm managers should not hedge risks that investors can hedge for themselves at the same cost.[5] This notion is captured in the so-called "hedging irrelevance proposition":[17] "In aperfect market, the firm cannot create value by hedging a risk when the price of bearing thatrisk within the firm is the same as theprice of bearing it outside of the firm."

In practice, however, financial markets are not likely to be perfect markets.[18][19][20][21] This suggests that firm managers likely have many opportunities to create value for shareholders using financial risk management, wherein they are able to determine which risks are cheaper for the firm to manage than for shareholders. Here,market risks that result in unique risks for the firm are commonly the best candidates for financial risk management.[22]

Application

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As outlined, businesses are exposed, in the main, to market, credit and operational risk. A broad distinction[13] exists though, betweenfinancial institutions and non-financial firms - and correspondingly, the application of risk management will differ. Respectively:[13]For Banks and Fund Managers, "credit and market risks are taken intentionally with the objective of earning returns, while operational risks are abyproduct to be controlled". For non-financial firms, the priorities are reversed, as "the focus is on the risks associated with the business" - ie the production and marketing of the services and productsin which expertise is held - and their impact on revenue, costs and cash flow, "while market and credit risks are usually of secondary importance as they are a byproduct of the main business agenda". (See related discussion revaluing financial services firms as compared to other firms.)In all cases, as above, risk capital is the last "line of defence".

Banking

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Further information:Bank § Capital and risk, andShadow banking system § Risks or vulnerability

Banks and otherwholesale institutions face variousfinancial risks in conducting their business, and how well these risks are managed and understood is a key driver[23]behind profitability, as well as of thequantum of capital they are required to hold.[24]Financial risk management in banking has thus grown markedly in importance since the2008 financial crisis.[25](This has given rise[25] todedicated degrees andprofessional certifications.)

The broad distinction betweenInvestment Banks, on the one hand, andCommercial andRetail Banks on the other, carries through to the management of risk at these institutions.Investment Banks profit from trading -proprietary andflow - and earn fees fromstructuring anddeal making; the latterincludes listing securities so as to raise funding in thecapital markets (andsupporting these thereafter), as well as directly providing debt-funding forlarge corporate "projects".The major focus for risk managers here is therefore onmarket- and (corporate)credit risk.Commercial and Retail Banks, asdeposit taking institutions, profit from the spread betweendeposit and loan rates.The focus of risk management is then onloan defaults from individuals or businesses (SMEs), and on having enoughliquid assets to meetwithdrawal demands; market risk concerns, mainly, the impact of interest rate changes onnet interest margins.

All banks will focus also on operational risk, impacting here (at least) throughregulatory capital;(large) banks are also exposed toMacroeconomicsystematic risk - risks related to the aggregate economy the bank is operating in[26](seeToo big to fail).

Investment banking

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The 5% Value at Risk of a hypothetical profit-and-lossprobability density function
Specific banking frameworks
Market risk
Credit risk
Counterparty credit risk
Operational risk
Further information:Investment banking § Risk management
See also:Derivative (finance) § Risks,Interest rate swap § Risks,Option (finance) § Risks,Value at risk § VaR risk management, andCorporate bond § Risk analysis

Forinvestment banks - as outlined - the major focus is on credit and market risk.Credit risk is inherent in the business of banking, but additionally, these institutions are exposed tocounterparty credit risk. Both areto some extent offset bymargining andcollateral; and the management is of thenet-position.

Risk management here[27][28][7][8]is, as discussed, simultaneously concerned with(i) managing, and as necessaryhedging, the various positions held by the institution - bothtrading positions andlong term exposures;and (ii) calculating and monitoring the resultanteconomic capital, as well as theregulatory capital underBasel III — which, importantly, covers alsoleverage andliquidity — with regulatory capital as a floor.

Correspondingly, and broadly, the analytics[28][27] are based as follows:For (i) onthe "Greeks", the sensitivity of the price of a derivative to a change in its underlying factors; as well as onthe various other measures of sensitivity, such asDV01 for the sensitivity of abond orswap to interest rates, andCS01 orJTD for exposure tocredit spread. For (ii) onvalue at risk, or "VaR", an estimate of how much the investment or area in question might lose as market and credit conditions deteriorate, with a given probability over a set time period, and with the bank then holding"economic"- or "risk capital" correspondingly;common parameters are 99% and 95% worst-case losses - i.e. 1% and 5% - and one day and two week (10 day) horizons.[29]These calculations are mathematically sophisticated, and withinthe domain of quantitative finance.

The regulatory capital quantum is calculated via specified formulae: risk weighting the exposures per highly standardized asset-categorizations, applying the aside frameworks, and the resultant capital — at least 12.9%[30] of theseRisk-weighted assets (RWA) — must then be heldin specific "tiers" and is measured correspondingly via thevarious capital ratios.In certain cases, banks are allowed to use their own estimated risk parameters here; these"internal ratings-based models" typically result in less required capital, but at the same timeare subject to strict minimum conditions and disclosure requirements.As mentioned, additional to the capital covering RWA, the aggregatebalance sheet will require capital forleverage andliquidity; this is monitored via[31] theLR,LCR, andNSFR ratios.

The2008 financial crisis exposed holes in the mechanisms used for hedging(seeFundamental Review of the Trading Book § Background,Tail risk § Role of the 2007–2008 financial crisis,Value at risk § Criticism, andBasel III § Criticism).As such, the methodologies employedhave had to evolve, both from a modelling point of view, and in parallel, from a regulatory point of view.

Regarding the modelling, changes corresponding to the above are:(i) For the dailydirect analysis of the positions at thedesk level, as a standard, measurement of the Greeksnow inheres thevolatility surface — throughlocal- orstochastic volatility models — while re interest rates, discountingand analytics are under a "multi-curve framework".[32] Derivative pricingnow embeds considerations recounterparty risk andfunding risk, amongst others,[33] through theCVA andXVA "valuation adjustments"; thesealso carry regulatory capital.(ii) For Value at Risk, the traditionalparametric and"Historical" approaches, are now supplemented[34][28] with the more sophisticatedConditional value at risk /expected shortfall,Tail value at risk, andExtreme value theory[35][36]. For the underlying mathematics, these may utilizemixture models,PCA,volatility clustering,copulas, and other techniques.[37]Extensions to VaR includeMargin-,Liquidity-,Earnings- andCash flow at risk, as well asLiquidity-adjusted VaR.For both (i) and (ii),model risk is addressed[38] through regularvalidation of the models used by the bank's various divisions; for VaR models,backtesting is especially employed.

Regulatory changes, are also twofold. The first change, entails anincreased emphasis[39] onbank stress tests.[40] These tests, essentiallya simulation of thebalance sheet for agiven scenario, are typically linked to the macroeconomics, and provide an indicator of how sensitive the bank is to changes in economic conditions, whether it issufficiently capitalized, and of its ability to respond to market events.The second set of changes, sometimes called "Basel IV", entails the modification of several regulatory capital standards (CRR III is the EU implementation). In particularFRTB addresses market risk, andSA-CCR addresses counterparty risk; other modificationsare being phased in from 2023.

Tooperationalize the above,Investment banks, particularly, employ dedicated"Risk Groups", i.e.Middle Office teams monitoring the firm's risk-exposure to, and the profitability and structure of, its variousbusiness units,products,asset classes, desks, and /or geographies.[41]By increasing order of aggregation:

  1. Financial institutions will set[42][27][43]limit values for each of the Greeks, or other sensitivities, that theirtraders must not exceed, and traderswill then hedge, offset, or reduce periodically if not daily; see the techniqueslisted below. These limits are set given a range[44] of plausible changes in prices and rates, coupled with the board-specifiedrisk appetite[45] re overnight-losses.[46]
  2. Desks, or areas, will similarly belimited as to their VaR quantum (total or incremental, and under various calculation regimes), corresponding to their allocated[47] economic capital; a loss which exceeds the VaR threshold is termed a "VaR breach". RWA - with other regulatory results - is correspondingly monitored from desk level[42] and upward.
  3. Each area's (or desk's)concentration risk will be checked[48][41][49] against thresholds set for various types of risk, and / or re a single counterparty,sector or geography.
  4. Leverage will be monitored, at very leastre regulatory requirements via LR, theLeverage Ratio, as leveraged positionscould lose large amounts for a relatively small move in the price of the underlying.
  5. Relatedly,[31]liquidity risk is monitored: LCR, theLiquidity Coverage Ratio, measures the ability of the bank to survive a short-term stress, covering its total net cash outflows over the next 30 days with "high quality liquid assets"; NSFR, theNet Stable Funding Ratio, assesses its ability to finance assets and commitments within a year (addressing also,maturity transformation risk). Any"gaps", also,must be managed.[50]
  6. Systemically Important Banks hold additional capital such that theirtotal loss absorbency capacity, TLAC, is sufficient[51] given both RWA and leverage. (See also "MREL"[52] for EU institutions.)

Periodically,[53] these all are estimated under a given stress scenario —regulatory and,[54] often,internal — and risk capital,[23]together with these limits if indicated,[23][55] is correspondingly revisited (or optimized[56]). The approaches taken center either on a hypothetical orhistorical scenario,[39][28]and may apply increasingly sophisticated mathematics[57][28] to the analysis.More generally, these testsprovide estimates for scenarios beyond the VaR thresholds, thus “preparing for anything that might happen, rather than worrying about precise likelihoods".[58]A reverse stress test, in fact, starts from the point at which "the institution can be considered as failing or likely to fail... and then explores scenarios and circumstances that might cause this to occur".[59]

A key practice,[60] incorporating and assimilating the above, is to assess theRisk-adjusted return on capital, RAROC, of each area (or product). Here,[61]"economic profit" is divided by allocated-capital; and this result is then compared[61][24] to the target-return for the area — usually, at least theequity holders' expected returns on the bank stock[61] — and identified under-performance can then be addressed. (See similarbelow re. DuPont analysis.)The numerator, risk-adjusted return, is realized trading-return less aterm and risk appropriate funding cost as chargedby Treasury to the business-unit under the bank'sfunds transfer pricing (FTP) framework;[62]direct costs are (sometimes) also subtracted.[60]The denominator is the area's allocated capital, as above, increasing as a function of position risk;[63][64][60] several allocation techniques exist.[47]RAROC is calculated bothex post as discussed, used for performance evaluation (and relatedbonus calculations),andex ante - i.e.expected return lessexpected loss - to decide whether a particular business unit should be expanded or contracted.[65]

Other teams, overlapping the above Groups, are then also involved in risk management.Corporate Treasury is responsible for monitoring overall funding and capital structure; it shares responsibility for monitoring liquidity risk, and for maintaining the FTP framework.Middle Officemaintains the following functions also:Product Control is primarily responsible for insuring tradersmark their books to fair value — a key protection againstrogue traders — and for"explaining" the daily P&L; with the"unexplained" component, of particular interest to risk managers.Credit Riskmonitors the bank's debt-clients on an ongoing basis, re both exposureand performance; while (large) exposures are initially approved by an "investment committee".In theFront Office — since counterparty and funding-risks span assets, products, and desks — specializedXVA-desks are tasked with centrallymonitoring and managing overall CVA and XVA exposure and capital, typically with oversight from the appropriate Group.[33]"Stress Testing" is similarly centralized.[40]

Performing the above tasks — while simultaneously ensuring that computations are consistent[66]over the various areas, products, teams,and measures — requires that banks maintain a significant investment[67] insophisticated infrastructure,finance / risk software, anddedicated staff. Risk software often deployed is fromFIS,Kamakura,Murex,Numerix (FINCAD) andRefinitiv.Large institutions may prefer systems developed entirely"in house"- notably[68]Goldman Sachs ("SecDB"),JP Morgan ("Athena"),Jane Street,Barclays ("BARX"),BofA ("Quartz") - while, more commonly, thepricinglibrary will bedeveloped internally, especially as this allows for currency re new products or market features.

Commercial and retail banking

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Risk taxonomy for retail and commercial banks
Further information:Financial institution § Regulation, andVolcker Rule
See also:Bank failure

Commercial andretail banks[69][70][71][72]are, by nature, more conservative than Investment banks, earning steady income from lending and deposits; their focus is more on the "banking book" than the "trading book".The biggest concern here - as mentioned - is the credit risk due toloan defaults from individuals or businesses. Liquidity risk, in this context not having enough liquid assets to meetwithdrawal demands, is also a major focus; while interest rate risk concerns the impact of interest rate changes onnet interest margins (the spread between deposit and loan rates).

For these banks, regulatory oversight is often tighter due to their direct impact on the financial system. Thus they are alsohighly regulated under Basel III andnational banking laws, and will also be subject to regular stress testing by central banks; and all regulations above then apply (with local exceptions; e.g. an LCR "threshold" in the US[73]). Additional to these, however, they must maintain high capital and liquidity ratios toprotect depositors; seeCAMELS rating system.

Given their business model and risk appetite,[71] as outlined, various differences result vs risk management at investment banks.

The Risk Management function typically existsindependent of operations - although may sit in Treasury - and reports directly to the board.[72] Its scope often extends to non-financialoperational andreputational risk (monitoring for any consequentrun on the bank).Specialised software is employed here,both operationally andfor risk management and modelling.

Corporate finance

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Contribution analytics: Profit and Loss for units sold at current fixed costs.
The same,for varying (scenario-based) Revenue levels, at current Fixed and Total costs.
Further information:Asset and liability management,Treasury management,Strategic financial management, andManagerial risk accounting
See also:Corporate finance § Financial risk management

Incorporate finance, andfinancial management more generally,[81][10]financial risk management, as above, is concerned withbusiness risk - risks to thebusiness’ value, within the context of itsbusiness strategy andcapital structure.[82]The scope here - ie in non-financial firms[13] - is thus broadened[9][83][84](re banking) to overlapenterprise risk management, and financial risk management then addresses risks to the firm's overallstrategic objectives, incorporating various (all) financial aspects[85] of the exposures and opportunities arising from business decisions, and their link to the firm’sappetite for risk, as well as their impact onshare price.In many organizations, risk executivesare therefore involved in strategy formulation: "the choice of which risks to undertake through the allocation of its scarce resources is the key tool available to management;"[86] correspondingly,major corporate investments and projectsmust first undergothorough analysis, with approval by anInvestment Committee.

Re the standard framework,[85] then, the discipline largely focuses on operations, i.e. business risk, as outlined. Here, the management is ongoing[10] — see following description — and is coupled withthe use of insurance,[87]managing the net-exposure as above:credit risk is usually addressed viaprovisioning andcredit insurance; likewise,where this treatment is deemed appropriate,specifically identified operational risks are also insured.[84]Market risk, in this context,[13] is concerned mainly with changes incommodity prices,interest rates, andforeign exchange rates, and any adverse impact due to these oncash flow andprofitability, and hence share price.

Correspondingly, the practice here covers two perspectives; these are shared with corporate finance more generally:

  1. Both risk management and corporate finance share the goal of enhancing, or at least preserving, firmvalue.[81] Here,[9][85] businessesdevote much time and effort to (short term)liquidity-,cash flow- andperformance monitoring, and Risk Management then also overlapscash- andtreasury management, especially as impacted by capital and funding as above. More specifically re business-operations, management emphasizes theirbreak even dynamics,contribution margin andoperating leverage, and thecorresponding monitoring andmanagement of revenue,of costs, andof other budget elements. TheDuPont analysis entails a "decomposition" of the firm'sreturn on equity, ROE, allowing managementto identify and address specific areas of concern,[88] preempting any underperformance vsshareholders' required return.[89] In larger firms, specialistRisk Analysts complement this work withmodel-based analytics more broadly;[90][91] in some cases, employingsophisticated stochastic models,[91][92] in, for example,financing activity prediction problems, and forrisk analysis ahead of a major investment.
  2. Firm exposure to long term market (and business) risk is a direct result of previouscapital investment decisions. Where applicable here[13][85][81] — usually in large corporates andunder guidance from[93] their investment bankers — risk analysts will manage and hedge[87] their exposures using tradedfinancial instruments to createcommodity-,[94][95]interest rate-[96][97] andforeign exchange hedges[98][99] (see further below). Because company specific, "over-the-counter" (OTC)contracts tend to be costly to create and monitor — i.e. usingfinancial engineering and / orstructured products"standard" derivatives that trade on well-establishedexchanges are often preferred.[15][85] These compriseoptions,futures,forwards, andswaps; the "second generation"exotic derivatives usually trade OTC. Complementary to this hedging, periodically, Treasury may alsoadjust the capital structure, reducingfinancial leverage - i.e. repaying debt-funding - so as to accommodate increased business risk; they may also suspenddividends.[100]

Multinational corporations are faced with additional challenges, particularly as relates toforeign exchange risk, and the scope of financial risk management modifies significantly in the international realm[98](seebelow regeopolitical risk generally).Here, dependent ontime horizon and risk sub-type —transactions exposure[101] (essentially that discussed above),accounting exposure,[102] andeconomic exposure[103]— so the corporatewill manage its risk differently.The forex risk-management discussed here and above, is additional to the per transaction"forward cover" thatimporters andexporters purchase from their bank (alongside othertrade finance mechanisms).

Hedging-related transactions will attract their ownaccounting treatment, and corporates (and banks) may then require changes to systems, processes and documentation;[104][105]seeHedge accounting,Mark-to-market accounting,Hedge relationship,Cash flow hedge,IFRS 7,IFRS 9,IFRS 13,FASB 133,IAS 39,FAS 130.

It is common for large corporations to have dedicated risk management teams — typically withinFP&A orcorporate treasury — reporting to theCRO; often these overlap theinternal audit function (seeThree lines of defence).For small firms, it is impractical to have a formal risk management function, but these typically apply the above practices, at least the first set, informally, as part of thefinancial management function; seediscussion underFinancial analyst.

The discipline relies on arange of software,[106] correspondingly, fromspreadsheets (invariably as a starting point, and frequently in total[107]) through commercialEPM andBI tools, oftenBusinessObjects (SAP),OBI EE (Oracle),Cognos (IBM), andPower BI (Microsoft).[108]

Insurance

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Further information:Insurance § Insurers' business model
See also:IFRS 17
Actuaries useExtreme Value Theory[36] to model rare events such as "100-year floods". Pictured isKaskaskia, Illinois, entirely submerged during theGreat Flood of 1993.

Insurance companiesmake profit[109][110] throughunderwriting — selecting which risks to insure, charging a risk-appropriatepremium, and thenpaying claims as they occur —and by investing the premiums they collect from insured parties.They will, in turn, manage their own risks[11][111][112][110]with a focus on solvency and the ability to pay claims:Life Insurers[113]are concerned more with longevity risk andinterest rate risk; Short-Term Insurers (Property,Health,Casualty)[109]emphasizecatastrophe- and claims volatility risks.

Fundamental here, therefore, are risk selection andpricing discipline, which as outlined, prevent insurers from taking on unprofitable business. Forexpected claims — i.e. those covered, on average, by thepricing model’s assumptions refrequency and severity —reserves are set aside (actuarial, withstatutory reserves as a floor). These will cover both known claims, reported but unpaid, as well as those which areincurred but not reported (IBNR). To absorbunexpected losses, insurance companies maintain a minimum level of capital plus an additionalsolvency margin. Capital requirements are based onthe risks an insurer faces, such as underwriting risk, market risk, credit risk, and operational risk, andare governed by frameworks such asSolvency II (Europe) and Risk-Based Capital[114] (U.S.).To further mitigate large-scale risks — i.e. to reduce exposure to catastrophic losses — insurers transfer portions of their risk toReinsurers. Here, analogous to VaR for banks, to estimate potential losses at various thresholdsinsurers use simulations, while stress tests assess how extreme events might impact capital and reserves under various[115] scenarios. In parallel with all these, as above, premiums collectedare invested to generate returns which will supplementunderwriting profits, and the fund is then risk-managed as follows:[116] ALM must ensure that investmentsalign with the timing and amount of expected claim payouts; while returns ("float") are defended using the techniques[117]discussed in the next section.As for banks, all models areregularly reviewed,[118] comparing,[119]i.a., "Actual versus Expected".

Specific treatments will, as outlined, differ by insurer-profile:

  • Short-Term Insurers[109]face more volatility relative to Life companies, while claims are typically resolved within a year or two (althoughtail events - e.g.asbestos litigation - can linger). Thus, reserves are shorter-term but must account for high uncertainty in claim frequency and severity; IBNR may be significant, especially after large events. Capital requirements focus on underwriting risk (e.g., mispricing policies) and catastrophe risk (e.g.,hurricanes,earthquakes). Stress tests therefore emphasize short-term catastrophic scenarios, and specializedcatastrophe models are often used. Reinsurance is widely utilized to cap exposure to catastrophes; as arequota-share orexcess-of-loss treaties re single events. Rapid claims settlement reduces reserving duration compared to life insurance, and portfolios lean toward liquid, shorter-term assets (e.g.,cash,short-term bonds).

In a typical insurance company, Risk Management and theActuarial Function are separate but closely related departments, each with distinct responsibilities. In smaller companies, the lines might blur, with actuaries taking on some risk management tasks, or vice versa. Regardless, the Head Actuary (or Chief Actuary or Appointed Actuary) has specific responsibilities, typically requiring formal "sign-off": Reserve Adequacy and Solvency and Capital Assessment, as well as Reinsurance Arrangements. The relevant calculations are usually performed with specialized software — provided e.g. byWTW andMilliman — and often usingR orSAS.

Investment management

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Further information:Portfolio optimization,Active management, andPassive management
See also:Modern portfolio theory,Post-modern portfolio theory, andFinancial economics § Portfolio theory
Modern portfolio theory suggests a diversified portfolio ofshares and otherasset classes (such as debt incorporate bonds,treasury bonds, ormoney market funds) will realise more predictable returns. Illustrated is a typicaldiversified fund, whereasset allocation is between asset classes; within each, managers may further select specific securities.
Efficient Frontier. Thehyperbola is sometimes referred to as the "Markowitz bullet", and its upward sloped portion is the efficient frontier if no risk-free asset is available. With a risk-free asset, the straightcapital allocation line is the efficient frontier.
Here maximizing return and minimizing risk such that the portfolio isPareto efficient (Pareto-optimal points in red).

Fund managers, classically,[120] define the risk of aportfolio as itsvariance[12] (orstandard deviation), and throughdiversification theportfolio is optimized so as to achieve the lowest risk for a given targeted return, or equivalently the highest return for a given level of risk: this approach is known asmean-variance optimization.Theserisk-efficient portfolios form the "efficient frontier"; seeMarkowitz model. The logic here is that returns from different assets are highly unlikely to be perfectlycorrelated, and in fact the correlation may sometimes be negative. In this way, market risk particularly, and other financial risks such asinflation risk (see below) can at least partially be moderated by forms of diversification.

A key issue, however, is that the (assumed) relationships are (implicitly) forward looking.As observed in thelate-2000s recession, historic relationships can break down, resulting in losses to market participants believing that diversification would provide sufficient protection (in that market, including funds that had been explicitly set up to avoid being affected in this way[121]).A related issue is thatdiversification has costs: as correlations are not constant it may be necessary toregularlyrebalance the portfolio, incurringtransaction costs, negatively impactinginvestment performance;[122]and as the fund manager diversifies, so this problem compounds (and a large fund may also exertmarket impact).SeeModern portfolio theory § Criticisms.

The above mean-variance optimization is implemented[123](more or less) directly[124] byasset allocation funds. At the same time - in part given the issues outlined - alternative methods for portfolio construction have been developed,[125][126] including new approaches todefining risk, and to theoptimization itself.[125] Notably, managers will employfactor models[127] — genericallyAPT — usingtime series regression[128] to design portfolios[117] withthe desired exposure to macroeconomic, market and / or fundamentalrisk factors;[129] respectively: macro-,factor-, andstyle portfolios.The optimization, under both approaches, may be with respect to(tail)risk parity, focusing on allocation of risk, rather than allocation of capital, and employ, e.g. theBlack–Litterman model which modifies the above "Markowitz optimization", to incorporate the "views" of the portfolio manager.[130]

Alongside these,Discretionary investment management funds,[131][132]instead, lean heavily on traditional "stock picking", employingfundamental analysis in preference to advanced[133] mathematical approaches. (These Managers are thenthe major consumers ofsecurities research.)The specific concerns will, in turn, differ[134]as a function of the Manager'sinvestment philosophy andactive strategy, preferring, e.g.,value-,growth- ordefensive stocks within her fund. Portfolios here are managed, also, using qualitative and subjective considerations, which include evaluationsof company management,industry dynamics, andmacro/political factors.As discussed below, Risk Management here will, correspondingly, be largely pragmatic and heuristic, as opposed to quantitative.

An important requirement, regardless of approach, is that the Manager must ensure[120][134] that the portfolio's risk level matchesthe investor's objectives and comfort zone, i.e. must ensurerisk tolerance alignment. Correspondingly, the fund's (advertised)investment strategy will, almost necessarily, define its own risk tolerance andappetite, and hence selection and application of optimization-criteria and risk management techniques. SeeFiduciary duty,Fund governance andInvestment policy statement.Here, for both individuals and Funds, generally, longer time horizons allow for greater tolerance of short-term volatility, while shorter horizons require more conservative strategies. A further generalization: portfolios constructed using mathematical-approaches are more exposed to market risk and thestock market cycle; while those constructed bystock picking are exposed, more, tofirm and sector specific risks.

In measuring risk quantitatively, the Manager will employ a variety[116] offinancial risk modeling techniques — includingvalue at risk,[135]historical simulation,stress tests, and[35][36]extreme value theory — to analyze the portfolio and to forecast the likely losses incurred for a selection of exposures and scenarios(see§ Investment banking for detail).

Guided by the analytics, and / or the above considerations, fund managers (andtraders) will implement specificrisk hedging techniques andstrategies.[120][12]As appropriate, these are applied to the portfolio as a whole ("top-down") or to individual holdings ("bottom-up"):

Further, and more generally, various safety-criteria may also inform overall portfolio composition, both at initial construction and, in this context, as a risk overlay.TheKelly criterion[147]will suggest - i.e. limit - the size of a position that an investor should hold in her portfolio.Roy's safety-first criterion[148]minimizes the probability of the portfolio's return falling below a minimum desired threshold.Chance-constrained portfolio selection similarly seeks to ensure that the probability of final wealth falling below a given "safety level" is acceptable.

Managers likewise employ the abovementionedfactor models on an ongoing basis to measure exposure to the relevantrisk factors.[129] Ahead of an anticipated movement in any of these, the Manager may then,[127][116]as indicated, reduce holdings, hedge, or purchase offsetting exposure. Thus a factor-based fund may "tilt" frommomentum tovalue, a style-based fund fromcyclical todefensive.Risk management forasset allocation funds is, similarly, both proactive and reactive: guided byeconomic forecasts, a diversified fund could,[149]allocation-strategy dependent (tactical,dynamic, orstrategic)rebalance itsasset allocation from e.g. equities to bonds.

In parallel with the above,[150][151] managers — active andpassive — periodically monitor and managetracking error,[149] i.e.underperformance vs a"benchmark".Here, they will useattribution analysis preemptively so as to diagnose the source early, and to take corrective action: realigning, often factor-wise, on the basis of this "feedback".[151][152]As relevant, they will similarly usestyle analysis to addressstyle drift.See alsoFixed-income attribution andBenchmark-driven investment strategy.

RegardingDiscretionary Funds: Managers here, as mentioned, rely largely[131][132]on insight, monitoringcompany-level risks,industry dynamics, andmacro-factors, and will reduce exposure, or hedge, based on any perceived risks.The weight attached to the various concerns will differ given the strategy employed:value funds, for example, focus on changes infirm fundamentals (but otherwise will "buy and hold"); whilegrowth funds are exposed to both market (beta)and sector returns.In parallel, Managers apply (practice derived) position-levelstop loss rules, as well as portfolio-level construction limits re max position size, sector exposure, country or currency exposure, and benchmark-relativetracking error.As asupplement, Managers (atlarger institutions) may use various of the above quantitative tools to monitor risk exposures and potential losses.

All managers - especially those with long horizons - must ensure a positivereal growth rate, i.e. that theirportfolio-returns at least matchinflation (and regardless of market returns). Since this phenomenon impacts all securities,[153]inflation risk will typically be managed[154][155] at the portfolio level. Here the manager will programmatically[156] (or heuristically) increase exposure[157] to inflation-sensitive stocks (e.g.consumer staples) and / or invest intangible assets andcommodities, as well asinflation swaps andinflation-linked bonds (ILBs). The latterinflation derivatives can, in fact, provide a directinflation hedge: to fully offset inflation,[158]the proportion of the portfolio in ILBs, for example, will correspond to its “inflation beta”[159][160][157](sensitivity of portfolio return to increases in inflation, measured using regression).

Newer and broader, and often qualitative[161] risks, are similarly managed industry-wide.These include ESG risks (financially material risks related to the broaderenvironmental, social, and governance contexts in which the firm operates),[162]cybersecurity risks (a material drop in share prices caused, e.g., by a significantransomware incident)[163] andgeopolitical risks.[161]These risks are often less tangible and less immediately visible than traditional financial risks,[162][164]and quantifying these can be challenging.[161] Managers may then employ techniques such as scenario analysis, and, sometimes,approaches from game theory. Based on this, in the case of geopolitical risks they will then diversify geographically and / or increase exposure (possibly factor-wise) tomacro-sensitive assets such asgold,oil, andBitcoin. (SeeGlobal macro.)ESG and cybersecurity risks are dealt with by diversification, and (for bottom-up portfolios) proactive screening,[162] withdirect management engagement[163] as necessary.The rise ofalternative investments (e.g.,cryptocurrencies,private equity) introduces unique risks that must also be addressed.[165][166]

While portfolio risks are managed day-to-day by the fund manager, theChief Risk Officer - often[167]Chief Investment Officer - is responsible for overall risk.[168][169][170]The Risk Function ("Group" at an IB, as above) thus monitors aggregate firm-level risks (exposure across funds, as well as, e.g.,reputational risk) ensuring alignment with the firm'srisk appetite andregulatory obligations; it will, relatedly, be involved in scenario generation - economic and geopolitical - and stress testing.This team also provides independent challenge and escalation if a fund breaches its risk budget (e.g. VaR, stress losses and sector concentration). The CRO typically signs off on stress testing, liquidity risk reviews, andmodel validation.

Given the complexity of these analyses and techniques, Fund Managers - andRisk Analysts - typically rely onsophisticated software (as do banks, above). Widely used platforms are provided byBlackRock (Aladdin),Refinitiv (Eikon),Finastra,Murex,Numerix, MPI,Morningstar,MSCI (Barra) andSimCorp (Axioma).

See also

[edit]
Articles
Discussion
Lists

Bibliography

[edit]

Financial institutions

Corporations

Portfolios

Insurers

  • Blatter, Anja; Bradbury, Sean; Bruhn, Pascal; Ernst, Dietmar (2025).Risk Management in Banks and Insurance Companies. Springer.ISBN 978-3-031-42835-7.
  • Doff, René (2015).Risk Management for Insurers (3 ed.). Risk Books.ISBN 978-1782722458.
  • Elliott, Michael (2015).Insurer Risk and Capital Management. American Institute For Chartered Property Casualty Underwriters.ISBN 978-0894638176.
  • Kriele, Marcus; Wolf, Jochen (2014).Value-Oriented Risk Management of Insurance Companies. Springer.ISBN 978-1447163046.
  • Thoyts, Rob (2010).Insurance Theory and Practice. Routledge.ISBN 978-0415559058.

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  170. ^Cara Griffith (2009)."What Is a Chief Risk Officer, and Should Hedge Fund Managers Have One?". Hedge Fund Law Report

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