Chart of Australian two party preferred polling between the2004 federal election and the2007 federal election byNewspoll (as published inNews Limited'sThe Australian),ACNielsen (as published inFairfax'sSydney Morning Herald andThe Age),Roy Morgan Research, andGalaxy Research. Roy Morgan polls 800-1000 eligible voters face to face, while the others poll 1200-1700 eligible voters over the phone. Polling is conducted nation-wide. The declared margin of error for polling is +/- 3 percent.

Thetwo party preferred (2PP) system works by distributing preferences of smaller parties, wiped out in theinstant-runoff voting process, to establish ultimately which major party the voter will choose - Labor or Coalition (Liberal/National). A coalition result of 51 percent would mean a Labor result of 49 percent, or vice versa. Whichever party polls the higher two-party preferred figure at the election would hold the majority of lower house seats to form government - exceptions to this since 2PP was introduced in1949 were in1954 (49.3),1961 (49.5),1969 (49.8),1990 (49.90), and1998 (49.02).1940 was estimated to be won on 49.7 percent.

Votes have only been fully distributed since the1983 federal election, previous to this, limited distributions occurred to achieve an estimated two-party preferred result. The largest two-party preferred election result for theLiberal Party of Australia was at the1966 federal election on 56.9 percent, while the largest two-party preferred election result for theAustralian Labor Party was at the1983 federal election on 53.23 percent (the largest unofficial result was 58.2 percent for Labor at the1943 federal election, estimated byMalcolm Mackerras[1]).

The last polls before the 2007 election from each company for Labor on two party preferred terms was Galaxy 52, Newspoll 52, Roy Morgan 53.5, ACNielsen 57.

• Newspoll polling 1996 v 2007
• Newspoll polling 1993 - 2007archive copy at theWayback Machine
• ACNielsen polling 1996 - 2007archive copy at theWayback Machine
• Roy Morgan polling 1996 - 2007archive copy at theWayback Machine
• Galaxy polling 2004 - 2007

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