| Part ofa series on the Egyptian Crisis (2011–2014) |
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TheEgyptian Crisis (Arabic:الأزمة المصرية,romanized: al-ʿazma al-Maṣriyya) was a period that started with theEgyptian revolution of 2011 and ended with the beginning of the presidency ofAbdel Fattah el-Sisi in 2014. It was a tumultuous three years of political and social unrest, characterized by mass protests, a series of popular elections, deadly clashes, and military reinforcement. The events have had a lasting effect on the country's current course, its political system and its society.
In 2011, hundreds of thousands of Egyptians took to the streets in an ideologically and socially diverse mass protest movement that ultimately ousted longtime presidentHosni Mubarak.[1][2] A protracted political crisis ensued, with theSupreme Council of the Armed Forces taking control of the country until the2012 presidential election broughtMohamed Morsi, the formerMuslim Brotherhood leader, into power as the first democratically electedpresident of Egypt.[3] However, ongoing disputes between the Muslim Brotherhood and secularists led toanti-government protests and ultimately culminated in the 3 July 2013coup d'état against Morsi, led by chief GeneralAbdel Fattah el-Sisi. The military move deepened the political schism and led to a crackdown by security forces, resulting inthe killing of over a thousand of Morsi's supporters.[4] In 2014, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi eventually won thepresidential election in a landslide victory, criticized by international observers as lacking democratic standards.[5]
During these years of political turmoil, the authority of the state had been threatened, but never collapsed. The demands of the protesters, including, but not limited to: bread,freedom,dignity, anddemocracy, have not been met. The military became further anchored inEgypt's politics and a maximal repression of revolutionary practices took place under Sisi's regime.
Duringhis presidency,Hosni Mubarak pursued policies similar to those of his predecessorAnwar Sadat, including the adoption of a neoliberal model corrupted bycronyism, and a commitment to theCamp David Accords.[6] He also continued the reduction of themilitary's influence in Egyptian politics by gradually clearing the ministries from military elites.[7] The Mubarak regime increasingly relied on thepolice forces, administered by theMinistry of Interior, to manage public dissent.[8]Economic liberalization programs reduced both the state's and the military's role in the economy, leading to a drastic decrease in defense expenditures by 2010.[9] Moreover, Mubarak positioned his son,Gamal Mubarak, as his successor instead of a military officer.[10] Although this gradual reshuffling of power led to tensions between Mubarak's government and the military, his regime was considered stable by experts and its collapse had not been anticipated.[6]
Mubarak'sauthoritarian rule was characterized by the tight control and repression of sociopolitical opposition.[11] Civil society groups constantly clashed and bargained with the state over their place in public politics. Although being rigorously monitored, political parties,elections, local democratic reforms, protests, administrative courts, and associations were increasingly tolerated as forms of political activity since the 2000s.[12]
The ever-increasing discontent among Egyptian citizens with the authoritarian regime originated in various concerns, ranging from the regime's brutal policing and its use of violence and torture, to corruption and election fraud.[13] Increasing poverty and high unemployment compounded the resentment against Mubarak.[14] After being nearly three decades in power, Mubarak was ousted following 18 days of demonstrations across the country during theEgyptian revolution of 2011.
The public resentment against the autocratic leadership of PresidentHosni Mubarak erupted into mass protests in late January 2011, following theTunisian revolution that overthrew PresidentBen Ali in mid-January.[15] Hundreds of thousands of Egyptians occupied several public places across Egypt, with Cairo'sTahrir Square as the hub of the anti-government protests.[16] Their demands were diverse but typically included dignity, bread, freedom, democracy, and social justice.[14]
Thepolice and demonstrators clashed violently, and the killing of three protestors remarkably deviated from the harsh but non-lethal repression the police usually deployed.[17][18] Initially, the government took a hard line by using riot-control tactics and byshutting down the internet and telecom networks, which in turn intensified the protests. On 28 January 2011, Mubarak ordered the deployment of thearmy as the embattled police forces collapsed, leading to "the largest policing failure in Egypt's history".[11][19] In a bid to accommodate the public, Mubarak appointedOmar Suleiman to the long-vacant office ofvice president on 29 January, and soon after dissolvedhis cabinet.[20] Later, he announced that he would not seek re-election and promised constitutional reforms, but he refused to step down. As none of these concessions satisfied protesters, the masses on the streets grew and the international pressure on Mubarak increased. The army did not intervene in the protests as they no longer supported Mubarak's rule.[21]
On 11 February 2011, Mubarak resigned as president and handed over power to theSupreme Council of the Armed Forces that had "to manage the affairs of the country".[22][23] Besides eradicating his nearly 30-year authoritarian rule, the nationwide protests marked an unprecedented event in Egypt's history, as it successfully mobilized people from different socioeconomic backgrounds and merged them into one coalition against the government.[6][13] The 18-day uprising left at least 846 civilians killed and more than 6,400 injured, according to a report commissioned by the Morsi-regime.[24][25] Human rights activists have been calling for a serious investigation of the real number of revolution victims, as "the total number of casualties could be far higher".[26]
FollowingHosni Mubarak's resignation on 11 February 2011, theSupreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) under Field MarshalMohamed Hussein Tantawi assumed control of the country. The SCAF suspended the1971 constitution and dissolved theparliament, tightening its grip over both legislative and executive power.[27] Free elections were to be organized within six months. The interim military rule was fully backed internationally, and, at least initially, well received by the public as a caretaker government, guaranteeing a rapid transition toward democracy.[23] The public support for the military regime appeared from theconstitutional referendum on 19 March 2011, in which 77.2% of voters approved the constitutional reforms proposed by the SCAF.[13] The constitutional amendments, although objected by many liberal revolutionaries, included thejudicial supervision ofelections, limited the presidential powers, and required the newly elected parliament to write a new constitution.[7]
However, the popular support for the military started to crumble and different civilian groups called for the end of military rule during renewed mass protests.[11]Legislative elections were held from November 2011 to January 2012 and led to a victory of Islamist parties, with theMuslim Brotherhood'sFreedom and Justice Party occupying the majority of parliamentary seats and theSalafist'sal-Nour Party winning another quarter of the seats.[7] Subsequently, thepresidential election was held in May and June 2012, and has been considered by many as the first free presidential election in Egypt's history.[28] A ruling by theSupreme Constitutional Court, declaring the legislative election unconstitutional, led to the dissolution of the newly elected parliament in June 2012, just before the final round of the presidential election.[23][29] Moreover, on 17 June 2012, the last day of the presidential election, the SCAF released a constitutional declaration that significantly limited the power of the next president and considerably extended the political power of the military officials.[30] These actions were a blow to the Muslim Brotherhood, which denounced it as a coup, and further consolidated the military's role as powerbroker in the post-Mubarak period.[28]
In June 2012,Mohamed Morsi won thepresidential election with 51.7% of the vote in a run-off against army-backed candidateAhmed Shafik, who served underMubarak as prime minister.[11][31] Morsi, a leading member of theMuslim Brotherhood and theFreedom and Justice Party, resigned from both organizations and was sworn in as Egypt's first civilian president on 30 June 2012.[28] However, Morsi's presidency was brief and short-lived, facingmassive protests for and against his rule, only to be ousted in amilitary coup in July 2013.[27]
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In August 2012, Morsi replacedHussein Tantawi asMinister of Defense byAbdel Fattah el-Sisi, then chief of themilitary intelligence.[32] Thedrafting of a new constitution, considered as a central element in the country's transition toward democracy, was criticized for the Islamists' dominance in the process and deeply divided the involved political factions.[33] The withdrawal of some main stakeholders, such as thesecularists and theCoptic Christians, resulted in a draft constitution almost entirely written by Islamist parties. On 22 November 2012, Morsi granted himself the power to protect the constitutional process from dissolution by thecourt, and the power to legislate without judicial oversight, until a new parliament would be elected.[34] While these unilateral actions led tomassive protests and violent action throughout the country, Morsi submitted the draft constitution to areferendum in which 63.8% voted in favor, despite a low turnout of 32.9% of the electorate.[27][35] Thenew constitution was then signed into law, which made it legally binding.
Morsi's regime was contested by a constellation of forces comprising themilitary, thesecurity forces, thejudiciary, and secularists, in what has been described as a "not-so-secret" parallel government aiming at its overthrow.[23] Disagreement over the constitutional process, Morsi's perceived incompetence, internal problems within the Brotherhood, and the failure to deal with some of the country's main issues, such as shortages of basic necessities, further challenged his rule.[11][36] In February 2013, theSalafists also withdrew their support from the president and soon after, the public resentment erupted into acampaign calling for his resignation andnation-wide demonstrations.
In April 2013, a grassroots movement known asTamarod, or "rebellion", claimed to have collected 20 million signatures on a petition calling for new presidential elections and the suspension of thenew constitution.[11] The independence of Tamarod has been questioned, as its campaign was allegedly supported and funded by theSCAF and thesecurity forces.[23][36] On 30 June 2013, the first anniversary ofMorsi's inauguration was marked by mass demonstrations for, but mostly against Morsi, in which thousands of protesters surrounded theHeliopolis presidential palace demanding the resignation of Morsi.[37] The military drew on the public resentment by issuing a 48-hour ultimatum that forced Morsi to reach a compromise with his opponents, but the president did not give in and insisted that he was the legitimate leader.[38]
The military has been accused of exaggerating the size of the anti-Morsi protests, claiming figures of 15 and 17 million of protesters, up to 30 million.[39][40][41][42] Independent observers have set the crowd scale at 1 to 2 million.[43] On 3 July 2013, theEgyptian Armed Forces, headed byAbdel Fattah el-Sisi, acted on its 48-hour ultimatum by carrying out a popularly supportedcoup d'état ousting PresidentMohamed Morsi.[44] In one day, the generals subsequently removed Morsi from office and imprisoned him, suspended the constitution, appointedAdly Mansour, chief justice of theSupreme Constitutional Court, as interim president, and called for early elections.[23]
Themilitary coup triggered violent clashes between the military and Morsi supporters.[45] Pro-Morsi protesters amassed near theRabia Al-Adawiya Mosque, originally to celebrate the one-year anniversary ofMorsi's presidency, but in the wake of his removal, they called for his return to power and condemned the military.[44] Following the coup, security forces violently suppressed pro-Morsi demonstrations, culminating in five separate incidents of mass killings, including thekilling of 61 protestors at theRepublican Guard headquarters on 8 July 2013.[46] On 14 August 2013, security forces raided the pro-Morsi sit-ins at al-Nahda Square andRabaa al-Adawiya Square, resulting in amassacre of at least 900 protesters.[47][48][49]Human Rights Watch denounced the aggressive crackdown on mostly peaceful protesters as "serious violations of international human rights" and are most likelycrimes against humanity.[50] Subsequent violence led to the death of hundreds more people.[27] The interim military government declared thestate of emergency and acurfew, that ultimately lasted three months.[51]
On 24 March 2014, an Egyptian court sentenced 529 suspected members of the Muslim Brotherhood to death, accused of attacking a police station.[52][53] Since the coup, approximately 60,000 people have been arrested or charged by the Egyptian authorities, which mainly targeted the Muslim Brotherhood.[54]
GeneralAbdel Fattah el-Sisi, who led themilitary coup against PresidentMohamed Morsi, emerged as a popular figure in Egypt, and he eventually ran for presidency in the2014 elections.[55] In late May 2014, el-Sisi won in a landslide victory with 96.9% of the vote.[56] His only rival wasHamdeen Sabahi in an election that was boycotted by Islamists and many political parties, including theMuslim Brotherhood and many liberal and secular groups.[57] The election saw a voter turnout of 47.5%, lower than the 52% turnout in the2012 presidential election, prompting the interim government to extend the vote last-minute with a third day.[58] The electoral process and the outcome was denounced by observers as violating democratic rules.[5] Analysts compared the election outcome to theMubarak era, in which similar numbers of support forMubarak were reported during periodic elections and referendums.[59] Nonetheless, el-Sisi's election was widely recognized internationally.[60][61][62] Domestically, hundreds of his supporters celebrated the victory in Cairo'sTahrir Square amid a deeply divided society.[56]
In the period between 2011 and 2014, multiple power centers, including themilitary, theMuslim Brotherhood and secularists, emerged and competed for power. However, the military permanently played a key role throughout the different events that constituted this juncture.[11] The army's generals carefully sought to manage each episode, and succeeded in maintaining power despite the country's political transitions. In fact, the military had always dominatedEgypt's politics since the establishment of the firstrepublic in 1952.[7] With the installation ofPresident el-Sisi, who removedMorsi in amilitary coup, the military's political and economic grip on the state has been fully consolidated in what has been called "a counterrevolutionary regime".[11][63] Meanwhile, there has been a maximal repression of theMuslim Brotherhood and other opposition groups.[21] Any form of public dissent, including theright to protest andfreedom of the press, is strongly restricted by Sisi's repressive regime.[64] Human rights organizations have accused Sisi'sauthoritarian regime of using torture andenforced disappearances to crush political opponents and criminal suspects.[65][66]
Sisi's regime is not simply a continuation ofMubarak's repressive rule, but a regime aiming at the eradication of all the revolutionary elements that developed during Mubarak's final years and have thrived since the2011 uprisings.[11] Sisi's policy of counterrevolution led many analysts to evaluate the Egyptian revolution as a "failed revolution".[67][68][69][70] However, critics of this view have assessed the period between 2011 and 2014 from a different perspective. It is argued that this period began without clear revolutionary intentions and has been terminated without a revolutionary outcome. Therefore, this turbulent period has also been described as a "revolutionary situation",[11] an "authoritarian breakdown",[71] a "constitutional revolution",[72] and, as a "revolutionary process" followed by "two waves of counterrevolution".[73] The discussion relates to broader reflections on theArab Spring, described byAsef Bayat as "political upheavals that were both revolutionary and non-revolutionary".[11]
In the years since the2011 revolution, theEgyptian economy suffered from a severe downturn.[23] The post-revolutionary governments faced numerous economic challenges while none of the government's met the demands of the people, such ashigh unemployment,crony capitalism, and wideningincome gaps.[74] Political and institutional uncertainty, a perception of rising insecurity and sporadic unrest continued to negatively affect Egypt's economic situation.[75] Since 2011, thegovernment deficit was supplemented with an additional 10% every year, and the country'sdomestic andforeign debt stood well beyond 100% of the GDP in 2015.[76]Tourism, crucial to Egypt's economy as one of its main sources of revenue, sharply dropped between 2010 and 2015 by an estimated 50%.[23]
WhenAbdel Fattah el-Sisi took power in June 2014, reviving the economy was one of his main priorities.[74] His government pushed through a range of economic reforms, such as cutting food and energy subsidies and raising taxes.[77] One of his most important economic projects was the completion of anew Suez canal in 2015.[78] However, economic decline only exacerbated Egypt's high rate of unemployment, most visibly in extremeyouth unemployment, which stood at more than 40% in 2016.[79] Additionally, an important part of the population has been deployed in theinformal economy, which complicates the provision of accurate data. By 2016,inflation and living costs heavily increased, pushing millions of people into poverty. Data from 2016 indicates that "an estimated twenty million Egyptians are living at or below the poverty level", including the lack of access to basic needs, health care and education.[23]
Since the2011 collapse of the Mubarak regime, a security vacuum emerged in theSinai Peninsula which turned it into a site of violentinsurgency.[80] Initially, the insurgency involved mainly localBedouin tribesmen who saw the revolution as an opportunity to oppose the regime's discrimination and to assert their authority in the region.[81]Islamist militants, present in the Sinai with various setbacks since the mid-1970s, exploited the country's instable situation to launch several attacks onEgyptian security forces.[82] Two military campaigns,Operation Eagle of theinterim SCAF-regime in 2011, andOperation Sinai of thenewly elected Morsi-regime in 2012, were not successful in eliminating the militant groups from the peninsula. Theremoval of Morsi and thebrutal repression on pro-Morsi protesters in 2013 further intensified the militants' activities.[83] A wave of attacks on Egyptian security personnel prompted the military to a harsh crackdown on the Islamist militant groups.[84]
In 2014, the most powerful militia in the Sinai,Ansar Bait al-Maqdis, pledged allegiance to theIslamic State and formed their own branch ofIslamic State in the Sinai Province.[4] They claimed responsibility over anattack in which more than 30 Egyptian soldiers were killed, being marked as the deadliest assault on security forces since 2011.[83] Multiple major offensives by theEgyptian army since 2014 crushed neither the Bedouin militants nor thejihadi groups. As a reaction to the aggressive political and military measures, their insurgent actions became bolder, with waves of attacks in 2015, 2016, and 2017 on the army,Coptic Christians, and theSufi community in the region. Their actions included the downing of aRussian passenger plane on 31 October 2015, killing all 224 aboard.[85]
| Major events before 2010 | |
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| Egyptian Crisis (2011–2014) | |
| 2017–present | |
