| Grey AustralianHouse of RepresentativesDivision | |
|---|---|
  Interactive map of boundaries since the2019 federal election | |
| Created | 1903 |
| MP | Tom Venning |
| Party | Liberal |
| Namesake | Sir George Grey |
| Electors | 123,812 (2025) |
| Area | 904,881 km2 (349,376.5 sq mi) |
| Demographic | Rural |
TheDivision of Grey is anAustralian electoral division inSouth Australia. The division was one of the seven established when the formerDivision of South Australia was redistributed on 2 October 1903 and is named forSir George Grey, who wasGovernor of South Australia from 1841 to 1845 (and laterPrime Minister of New Zealand).
The division covers the vast northern outback of South Australia. Highlighting South Australia's status as the second-most centralised state in Australia, Grey spans 904,881 square kilometres (349,377 sq mi), over 92 percent of the state. The borders of the electorate includeWestern Australia, theNorthern Territory,Queensland andNew South Wales borders, in addition to much of the southern coastal border. The electorate spans toMarion Bay andEudunda in the south. The main population centres of the electorate includeCeduna,Port Lincoln,Whyalla,Port Augusta,Roxby Downs,Coober Pedy,Port Pirie,Kadina,Maitland,Orroroo,Booleroo Centre,Peterborough,Burra andEudunda.
Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by theAustralian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned.[1]
When Grey was first created in 1903, it included theNorthern Territory and all of northern and western South Australia, down to a line through theMid North south ofPort Pirie.[2]
Following the 1949 redistribution it increased in size and covered almost five-sixths of the State of South Australia (111,000 square miles) from the borders with Western Australian and Northern Territory in the West and North to Queensland and New South Wales in the East. The remaining one-sixth of the State was covered by the other nine Federal Divisions for South Australia.[3][4]
Grey was held byLabor for much of its history, and was one of the few country seats where Labor usually did well. It remained in Labor hands for all but one term from1943 to1993, the only break coming when theLiberals won it during their landslide victory in1966. For most of that time, it was a fairly safe Labor seat, though it was almost lost in theCoalition landslides in1975 and1977.
That changed in 1993, when the retirement of Labor incumbentLloyd O'Neil, the unpopularity of the state Labor government, and the addition of theClare Valley at a redistribution which turned Grey in to a marginal seat, enabled LiberalBarry Wakelin become only the second non-Labor member to win the seat in 50 years. That happened even as Labor won another term; it was the first time Labor had won government at an election without winning Grey. However, the election came at a bad time for the state Labor government, which was roundly defeated at thestate election later that year.
Wakelin was re-elected with a further swing in1996, and since then the decline in the mining and pastoral vote has made it a fairly safe Liberal seat. While the "Iron Triangle" towns of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie still tilt Labor — as they have for more than a century — they are not enough to overcome the increasingly conservative lean in the rest of the seat.
The Liberals consolidated their hold on the seat ahead of the2004 election when theYorke Peninsula and the state's upper east, both historically strongly conservative areas, were transferred to Grey fromWakefield. The Liberals suffered a nine-point swing at the2007 election, butRowan Ramsey was still able to retain the seat for the Liberals, with 54.4 percent of the two-party vote. The seat became secure for the Liberals once again after Ramsey picked up a large swing in2010, which he consolidated in2013. The2025 landslide saw the Liberals reduced to 54.6 percent of the two-party vote.
South Australian SenatorNick Xenophon confirmed in December 2014 that by mid-2015 theNick Xenophon Team (NXT) would announce candidates in all states and territories at the2016 election, with Xenophon citing the government's ambiguity on theCollins-class submarine replacement project as motivation.[5]ABCpsephologistAntony Green's 2016 federal election guide for South Australia stated NXT had a "strong chance of winning lower house seats and three or four Senate seats".[6]
Going into the 2016 election, Grey was the second-safest Liberal seat in South Australia; Labor needed a 13-point swing to win it. AReachTEL seat-level opinion poll in Grey of 665 voters conducted byrobocall on 9 June during the election campaign surprisingly found NXT candidate Andrea Broadfoot leading the Liberals' Ramsey 54–46 on thetwo-candidate preferred vote.Seat-level opinion polls in the other two rural Liberal South Australian seats revealed NXT also leading in bothMayo andBarker.[7][8]
Early counting following the poll showed that Broadfoot was a clear second to Ramsey on first preferences, well ahead of theALP candidate in third place. This meant that the indicative assessment of two-candidate preferred count on election night had been done between the wrong pair,[9] and would need to be redone in the following week to give a clearer indication as to which of Ramsay and Broadfoot would win the seat after distributing all preferences.[10][11] While Broadfoot was ahead with as much as 80 percent of ballots counted, she ultimately lost to Ramsey onFamily First preferences. Ultimately, Ramsey suffered a swing of 11.6 percent after preferences were counted, which made Grey the most marginal Liberal seat in the state and one of the most marginal Coalition-held rural seats in the nation. On a "traditional" two-party basis (Labor vs. Liberal), however, Grey was still a fairly safe Liberal seat.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | Tom Venning | 37,287 | 34.89 | −10.43 | |
| Labor | Karin Bolton | 24,053 | 22.50 | +1.10 | |
| Independent | Anita Kuss | 18,745 | 17.54 | +17.54 | |
| One Nation | Brandon Turton | 10,652 | 9.97 | +3.71 | |
| Greens | Kathryn Hardwick-Franco | 6,323 | 5.92 | −0.86 | |
| Family First | Kylie Evans | 3,856 | 3.61 | +3.61 | |
| National | Peter Borda | 3,288 | 3.08 | +3.08 | |
| Trumpet of Patriots | Laury Hendrik Bais | 2,677 | 2.50 | +1.80 | |
| Total formal votes | 106,881 | 92.88 | −0.19 | ||
| Informal votes | 8,194 | 7.12 | +0.19 | ||
| Turnout | 115,075 | 89.41 | −0.21 | ||
| Two-party-preferred result | |||||
| Liberal | Tom Venning | 58,402 | 54.64 | −5.43 | |
| Labor | Karin Bolton | 48,479 | 45.36 | +5.43 | |
| Liberalhold | Swing | −5.43 | |||
29°36′14″S135°27′14″E / 29.604°S 135.454°E /-29.604; 135.454
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