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David Spiegelhalter

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"Spiegelhalter" redirects here. For the Spiegelhalter shop inWhitechapel, seeWickhams (department store).

English statistician (born 1953)

Sir David Spiegelhalter OBE FRS
Spiegelhalter giving a presentation in November 2020
Born	David John Spiegelhalter (1953-08-16)16 August 1953 (age 72) Barnstaple, Devon, England
Alma mater	University of Oxford (BA) University College London (MSc, PhD)
Awards	Guy Medal OBE FRS (2005) Weldon Memorial Prize (2009) Knight Bachelor (2014)
Scientific career
Fields	Statistics Biostatistics^[1]
Institutions	University of Cambridge University of California, Berkeley Brunel University University of Nottingham
Thesis	Adaptive inference using finite mixture models (1978)
Doctoral advisor	Adrian Smith^[2]

Website	www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/person/ds28

Sir David John Spiegelhalter (born 16 August 1953) is a British statistician and a Fellow ofChurchill College, Cambridge.^[1]^[3]^[4]^[5] From 2007 to 2018 he wasWinton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk in theStatistical Laboratory at theUniversity of Cambridge.^[6] Spiegelhalter is anISI highly cited researcher.

He is currently Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication in theCentre for Mathematical Sciences at Cambridge.^[7] On 27 May 2020 he joined theboard of theUK Statistics Authority as a non-executive director for a period of three years,^[8] a term which was extended through to 2026.^[9]

Early life and education

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Spiegelhalter was born on 16 August 1953.^[10] He was educated atBarnstaple Grammar School, astate grammar school inBarnstaple, Devon, from 1963 to 1970.^[11] He then studied mathematics atKeble College, Oxford, graduating with a Bachelor of Arts (BA) degree in 1974.^[12]^[13] He moved toUniversity College London, where he gained his Master of Science (MSc) degree in statistics in 1975 and a Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) degree inmathematical statistics in 1978.^[12]^[13] His doctoral thesis was titled "Adaptive Inference Using Finite Mixture Models",^[14] and wassupervised byAdrian Smith.^[2]

Career

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Spiegelhalter was research assistant inBrunel University in 1976^[13] and then visiting lecturer at theUniversity of California, Berkeley, 1977–78. After his PhD, he was a research assistant for theRoyal College of Physicians; he was based at theUniversity of Nottingham, where his PhD supervisor,Adrian Smith, had been appointed a professor.^{[citation needed]}

From 1981 he was at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit at Cambridge. He has been an honorary lecturer at theUniversity of Hong Kong since 1991. He has also been a consultant forGlaxoSmithKline,Novartis and theWorld Anti-Doping Agency. He played a leading role in thepublic inquiries into children's heart surgery at theBristol Royal Infirmary, the murders byHarold Shipman,^[15] the independent inquiry onMid Staffs Trust and, more recently, theinfected blood inquiry.

Between 2007 and 2012 he divided his work^[16] between the CambridgeStatistical Laboratory (three-fifths) and theMedical Research Council Biostatistics Unit (two-fifths).^[17] He left the MRC in March 2012^[18] and worked full-time at the Statistical Laboratory as theWinton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk until his retirement. He remained chair of the Winton Centre until it closed in 2023. As of 2012 Spiegelhalter has supervised 7 PhD students.^[13]^[19]

David Spiegelhalter playing with Arco IrisSamba band, July 2009

In 2012, Spiegelhalter hosted theBBC Four documentaryTails You Win: The Science of Chance which described the application ofprobability in everyday life.^[20] He also presented a 2013Cambridge Science Festival talk,How to Spot a Shabby Statistic at the Babbage Lecture Theatre in Cambridge.^[5]^[21]

He was elected as President of theRoyal Statistical Society, and took up the position on 1 January 2017. His Presidential address later that year took as its subjectTrust in Numbers.^[22]

In March 2020 Spiegelhalter launched a podcast calledRisky Talk where he interviews experts in risk and evidence communication on topics like genetics, nutrition, climate change and immigration.^[23] He appeared onBBC Desert Island Discs on 6 February 2022.^[24]

Research

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Spiegelhalter's research interests are in statistics^[1]^[25]^[26] including

Bayesian approach to clinical trials, expert systems and complex modelling and epidemiology.^[27]
Graphical models of conditional independence. He wrote several papers in the 1980s that showed how probability could be incorporated into expert systems, a problem that seemed intractable at the time. Spiegelhalter showed that whilefrequentist probability did not lend itself to expert systems,Bayesian probability most certainly did.^[28]
Statistical software.^[29] In the 1990s Spiegelhalter led theMedical Research Council team that developedWinBUGS ("Bayesian analysis Using Gibbs Sampling"), a statistical-modelling system allowinghierarchical prior distributions. WinBUGS and its successorOpenBUGS specifiesgraphical models using acyclic directed graphs whose nodes are random variables, which are updated usingGibbs sampling (an updating method forMarkov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)simulation).^[30] Earlier Bayesian software had required that the probability distribution for the observed data be anexponential family and that the prior be itsconjugate distribution. Allowing flexible choices of prior distributions simplified hierarchical modelling and helped to promotemultilevel models, which became widely used in epidemiology and education.
General issues inclinical trials,^[31] including cluster randomisation, meta-analysis and ethical monitoring.
Monitoring and comparing clinical and public-health outcomes and their associated publication as performance indicators.
Public understanding of risk,^[32]^[33] including promoting concepts such as themicromort (a one in a million chance of death) andmicrolife (a 30-minute reduction of life expectancy). Media reporting of statistics,^[34] risk and probability and the wider conception of uncertainty as going beyond what is measured to model uncertainty, the unknown and the unmeasurable.

In 2003 Spiegelhalter and others published a paper on the many murders of physicianHarold Shipman, in which they found that routine statistical monitoring of mortality could have revealed the murders in 1996, two years and many murders before suspicions were actually raised.^[35]

Honours

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1975 Fellow,Royal Statistical Society
1985Guy Medal in Bronze, Royal Statistical Society
1990 Award for Outstanding Statistical Application,American Statistical Association^[36]
1993 Chartered Statistician, Royal Statistical Society^{[dubious –discuss]}
1994 Guy Medal in Silver, Royal Statistical Society
1994 Honorary Doctorate,Aalborg University, Denmark
2005 Elected a Fellow of the Royal Society (FRS)
2006 AppointedOfficer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE) in theQueen's Birthday Honours for services to medical research^[37]
2006 Appointed Honorary Professor of Biostatistics atUniversity of Cambridge
2009Weldon Memorial Prize and Medal^[38]
2010 Honorary Doctorate of Science,Plymouth University
2013 Honorary Doctorate of Science,University of Bath^[39]
2013 Honorary Doctorate fromHeriot-Watt University^[40]
2014Knighted in the2014 Birthday Honours for services to statistics^[41]^[42]
2016 Honorary FellowInstitute and Faculty of Actuaries^[43]
2020Guy Medal in Gold, Royal Statistical Society^[44]
2020Michael Faraday Prize of the Royal Society^[45]
2021 Honorary Fellow of theMarket Research Society^[46]
2023 Honorary Doctorate,Athens University of Economics and Business^[47]
2023 Honorary Doctorate of Laws, Dundee University^[48]

Media appearances

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Horizon – To Infinity and Beyond (10 February 2010)
The Joy of Stats (7 December 2010)
Horizon –What is One Degree? (10 January 2011) – Interviewed byBen Miller
Winter Wipeout -BBC One (17 December 2011)
Tails You Win: The Science of Chance (18 October 2012)
Horizon – Should I Eat Meat? The Big Health Dilemma (18 August 2014)
Through the Wormhole withMorgan Freeman (2014)
Climate Change by Numbers (2 March 2015)
Panorama – Why Are Gambling Machines Addictive? (12 September 2016)
The 80,000 Hours Podcast – (21 June – 2017)
Social Science Bites – (2 April 2018)
The Infinite Monkey Cage: 100th Episode TV Special – (13 July 2018)
Risky Talk; host ofRisky Talk the podcast (5 February 2020 – ongoing)
Scientists in the Spotlight with Jim Al-Khalili. BBC Sounds (15 Dec 2020)
Desert Island Discs, BBC Radio 4 (11 February 2022)

Bibliography

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Sex by Numbers: What Statistics Can Tell Us About Sexual Behaviour (2015, Wellcome Collection)
Teaching Probability (2016, Cambridge University Press) (with Jenny Gage)
The Art of Statistics: Learning from Data (2019, Pelican)
Covid by Numbers: Making Sense of the Pandemic with Data (2021, Pelican) (with Dr Anthony Masters)
The Art of Uncertainty: Living with Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck (2024, Pelican)^[49]

References

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^^a ^b ^cDavid Spiegelhalter publications indexed byGoogle Scholar
^^a ^bDavid Spiegelhalter at theMathematics Genealogy Project
^"Churchill College: Fellows: List of current Fellows". Archived fromthe original on 18 February 2012. Retrieved14 September 2011.
^David Spiegelhalter's publications indexed by theScopus bibliographic database.(subscription required)
^^a ^bDavid Spiegelhalter atIMDb
^"David Spiegelhalter's Personal Home Page". Archived fromthe original on 7 September 2021. Retrieved6 January 2022.
^Spiegelhalter, D. J. (2021).Covid by numbers: making sense of the pandemic with data / David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters. Anthony Masters. Pelican.ISBN 978-0-241-54773-1.OCLC 1250202258.
^"Appointment of two new Non-Executive Directors to the UK Statistics Authority Board". Retrieved27 May 2020.
^"UK Statistics Authority welcomes three new non-executive directors".
^"SPIEGELHALTER, Prof. David John".Who's Who. Vol. 2015 (onlineOxford University Press ed.). A & C Black.(Subscription orUK public library membership required.)
^Keeble, Andy (18 June 2014)."Barnstaple old boy knighted in Queen's Birthday honours".North Devon Gazette. Archived fromthe original on 8 January 2018. Retrieved7 January 2018.
^^a ^b"Spiegelhalter, Sir David (John), (born 16 Aug. 1953), Chair, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge, since 2017 (Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk, 2007–18); Fellow, Churchill College, Cambridge".Who's Who 2021. Oxford University Press. 1 December 2020. Retrieved29 August 2021.
^^a ^b ^c ^d"CURRICULUM VITAE – David John SPIEGELHALTER"(PDF).Understanding Uncertainty. Retrieved10 May 2019.
^Spiegelhalter, David (1978).Adaptive inference using finite mixture models (PhD thesis). University College London.
^"Programme transcript".BBC News. 2 April 2006.
^Spiegelhalter, David (October 2009)."Don's Diary"(PDF).CAM. Cambridge University Alumni Association. p. 3. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved21 October 2014.
^"MRC Biostatistics Unit: People". Archived fromthe original on 3 September 2011. Retrieved15 September 2011.
^"Welcome to the MRC Biostatistics Unit". Archived fromthe original on 13 January 2012. Retrieved25 April 2012.
^"David John Spiegelhalter".Mathematics Genealogy Project. Retrieved2 September 2019.
^BBC Four – Tails You Win: The Science of Chance
^What's On » Cambridge Science Festival – How to spot a shabby statistic
^Spiegelhalter, D. (2017). "Trust in numbers".Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A.180 (4): 949-965.doi:10.1111/rssa.12302.
^Risky Talk website. Accessed 30 December 2022.
^"Desert Island Discs – Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, statistician – BBC Sounds".www.bbc.co.uk. Retrieved11 February 2022.
^David Spiegelhalter publications indexed byMicrosoft Academic
^David J. Spiegelhalter atDBLP Bibliography Server
^Spiegelhalter, D. J.;Best, N. G.; Carlin, B. P.; Linde, A. V. D. (2002)."Bayesian Measures of Model Complexity and Fit".Journal of the Royal Statistical Society.64 (4):583–639.doi:10.1111/1467-9868.00353.
^Lauritzen, S. L.; Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1988). "Local Computations with Probabilities on Graphical Structures and Their Application to Expert Systems".Journal of the Royal Statistical Society.50 (2):157–224.doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1988.tb01721.x.JSTOR 2345762.
^Gilks, W. R.; Richardson, S.; Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1996).Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice. Chapman & Hall.ISBN 978-0-412-05551-5.
^Lunn, D.; Spiegelhalter, D.; Thomas, A.; Best, N. (2009)."The BUGS project: Evolution, critique and future directions".Statistics in Medicine.28 (25):3049–3067.doi:10.1002/sim.3680.PMID 19630097.
^Neuenschwander, B.; Capkun-Niggli, G.; Branson, M.; Spiegelhalter, D. J. (2010). "Summarizing historical information on controls in clinical trials".Clinical Trials.7 (1):5–18.doi:10.1177/1740774509356002.PMID 20156954.S2CID 38751711.
^Spiegelhalter, D.; Pearson, M.; Short, I. (2011). "Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future".Science.333 (6048):1393–1400.Bibcode:2011Sci...333.1393S.CiteSeerX 10.1.1.1029.4615.doi:10.1126/science.1191181.PMID 21903802.S2CID 1223740.
^"David Spiegelhalter's blog | Understanding Uncertainty". Retrieved15 September 2011.
^Riesch, H.; Spiegelhalter, D. J. (2011). "'Careless pork costs lives': Risk stories from science to press release to media".Health, Risk & Society.13:47–64.doi:10.1080/13698575.2010.540645.S2CID 72065012.
^Spiegelhalter, David; Grigg, Olivia; Kinsman, Robin; Treasure, Tom (1 February 2003)."Risk-adjusted sequential probability ratio tests: applications to Bristol, Shipman and adult cardiac surgery"(PDF).International Journal for Quality in Health Care.15 (1):7–13.doi:10.1093/intqhc/15.1.7.
^Outstanding Statistical Application Award, ASA, retrieved 31 March 2014.
^UK list:"No. 58014".The London Gazette (1st supplement). 17 June 2006. p. 13.
^"Weldon Memorial Prize and Medal – International Statistical Institute". Archived fromthe original on 14 August 2011. Retrieved15 September 2011.
^"Honorary graduates, 2010 to 2019".
^"David Spiegelhalter's Personal Home Page".www.statslab.cam.ac.uk. Archived fromthe original on 1 January 2018. Retrieved29 March 2016.
^"No. 60895".The London Gazette (Supplement). 14 June 2014. p. b2.
^Gallagher, James (14 June 2014)."Prof Colin Blakemore: Medical research defender knighted".BBC News.
^"Newly elected Honorary Fellows of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries".
^"Announcing our honours recipients for 2020".
^"David Spiegelhalter wins Faraday Prize".
^"MRS celebrates 75th anniversary with Honorary Fellowships".
^"Professor Sir DAVID JOHN SPIEGELHALTER was awarded an Honorary Doctorate".
^"Honorary Degrees | University of Dundee, UK".
^Thompson, Alexandra (18 September 2024)."Top statistician David Spiegelhalter on how to deal with uncertainty". New Scientist. Retrieved22 September 2024.

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