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Thedate of the birth of Jesus is not stated in thegospels or in anyhistorical sources and the evidence is too incomplete to allow for consistent dating.[1] However, most biblical scholars and ancient historians believe that his birth date is around 6 to 4 BC.[2][3][4][5][6][7] Two main approaches have been used to estimate the year of thebirth of Jesus: one based on the accounts in theGospels of his birth with reference toKing Herod's reign, and the other by subtracting his stated age of "about 30 years" when he began preaching.
Aside from the historiographical approach of anchoring the possible year to certain independently well-documented events mentioned in Matthew and Luke, other techniques used by believers to identify the year of the birth of Jesus have included working backward from the estimation of the start of theministry of Jesus[8] and assuming that the accounts ofastrological portents in the gospels can be associated with certainastronomical alignments or other phenomena.[9]
The day or season has been estimated by various methods, including the description of shepherds watching over their sheep.[10] In the third century, the precise date of Jesus's birth was a subject of great interest, with early Christian writers suggesting various dates in March, April and May.[11]
Thenativity accounts in theNew Testament gospels ofMatthew andLuke do not mention a date or time of year for the birth of Jesus.[a]Karl Rahner states that the authors of the gospels generally focused on theological elements rather than historical chronologies.[6]
Both Luke and Matthew associate Jesus' birth with the time ofHerod the Great.[6]Matthew 2:1 states that "Jesus was born in Bethlehem of Judaea in the days of Herod the king". He also implies that Jesus could have been as much as two years old at the time of the visit of theMagi, because Herod ordered the murder of all boys up to the age of two years (Massacre of the Innocents), "in accordance with the time he had learned from the Magi"Matthew 2:16.[12] In addition, if the phrase "about 30" inLuke 3:23 is interpreted to mean 32 years old, this could fit a date of birth just within the reign of Herod, who died in 4 BC according to most scholars.[13][14][15][16][17][18]
Luke 1:5 mentions the reign of Herod shortly before the birth of Jesus.[10] This Herod died in 4 BC.Luke 2:1-2 also places the birth during a census decreed by CaesarAugustus, whenQuirinius was governing Judah. Some interpreters of Luke determine that this was theCensus of Quirinius, which the Jewish historianJosephus described as taking placec. AD 6 in his bookAntiquities of the Jews (writtenc. AD 93),[6] by indicating that Cyrenius/Quirinius began to be the governor of Syria in AD 6 and a census took place during his tenure sometime between AD 6–7.[b][19][20][c] Since Herod died a decade before this census, most scholars generally accept a date of birth between 6 and 4 BC.[2][10][6] On the other hand, a census was not a unique event in the Roman Empire. For example,Tertullian argued that a number of censuses were performed throughout the Roman world underSentius Saturninus at the same time.[20][19][21] Some biblical scholars and commentators believe the two accounts can be harmonized,[22][23] arguing that the text in Luke can be read as "registrationbefore (πρώτη) Quirinius was governor of Syria", i.e., that Luke was actually referring to a completely different census, though this understanding of the Greek word has been rejected by scholars.[d]

Another approach to estimating the year of birth is based on an attempt to work backwards from the point when Jesus began preaching, using the statement inLuke 3:23 that he was "about 30 years of age" at that time.[24] Jesus began to preach after being baptized byJohn the Baptist, and based on Luke's gospel John only began baptizing people in "the fifteenth year of the reign of Tiberius Caesar" (Luke 3:1–2), which scholars estimate would place the year at about AD 28–29.[24][25][26][27][28] By working backwards from this, it would appear that Jesus was probably born no later than 1 BC.[8][24][27] Another theory is that Herod's death was as late as after the January eclipse of 1 BC[29] or even AD 1[30] after the eclipse that occurred in 1 December BC.[31]
Luke's date is independently confirmed by John's reference inJohn 2:20 to the Temple being in its 46th year of construction when Jesus began his ministry during Passover, which corresponds to around AD 27–29 according to scholarly estimates.[32]
Most scholars regard theStar of Bethlehem account to be a pious fiction, of literary and theological value, rather than historical. Nonetheless, attempts have been made to interpret it as an astronomical event, which might then help date Jesus' birth through the use of ancient astronomical records, or modern astronomical calculations. The first such attempt was made byJohannes Kepler who interpreted the account to describe agreat conjunction.[33] Other astronomical events have been considered, including a close planetary conjunction between Venus and Jupiter in 2 BC.[34]
Most scholars concerning the date of Herod's death followEmil Schürer's calculations published in 1896, which revised a traditional death date of 1 BC to 4 BC.[35][36][37][38][39] Two of Herod's sons,Archelaus andPhilip the Tetrarch, dated their rule from 4 BC,[40] though Archelaus apparently held royal authority during Herod's lifetime.[41] Philip's reign would last for 37 years, until his death in the traditionally accepted 20th year ofTiberius (AD 34), which implies his accession as 4 BC.[42]
In 1998, David Beyer published that the oldest Latin manuscripts of Josephus’sAntiquities have the death of Philip in the 22nd year of Tiberius (and not the 20th year, as shown in later editions of theAntiquities). In the British Library, there is not a single manuscript prior to AD 1544 that has the traditionally accepted 20th year of Tiberius for the death of Philip. This evidence removes the main obstacle for a later date of 1 BC for the death of Herod.[43] Beyer's arguments have been questioned by Raymond Jachowski, who argued that Beyer only used ill-attested Latin translations instead of the original Greek manuscripts, some of which date to the 13th and 11 centuries.[44] Nevertheless, other scholars support the traditional date of 1 BC for Herod's death,[45][46][47][48] and argue that his heirs backdated their reigns to 4 or 3 BC to assert an overlapping with Herod's rule and bolster their own legitimacy, something that had already been done by a few rulers before them.[43][37][49][36]
TheAnno Domini dating system was devised in 525 byDionysius Exiguus to enumerate the years inhis Easter table. His system was to replace theDiocletian era that had been used inolder Easter tables, as he did not wish to continue the memory of a tyrant whopersecuted Christians.[50] The last year of the old table, DiocletianAnno Martyrium 247, was immediately followed by the first year of his table, Anno Domini 532. When Dionysius devised his table,Julian calendar years were identified by naming theconsuls who held office that year—Dionysius himself stated that the "present year" was "the consulship ofProbus Junior", which was 525 years "since the incarnation of our Lord Jesus Christ".[51] Thus, Dionysius implied thatJesus' incarnation occurred 525 years earlier, without stating the specific year during which his birth or conception occurred. "However, nowhere in his exposition of his table does Dionysius relate his epoch to any other dating system, whether consulate,Olympiad,year of the world, orregnal year of Augustus; much less does he explain or justify the underlying date."[52]
Bonnie J. Blackburn andLeofranc Holford-Strevens briefly present arguments for 2 BC, 1 BC, or AD 1 as the year Dionysius intended for theNativity orIncarnation. Among the sources of confusion are:[53]
It is not known how Dionysius established the year of Jesus's birth. One major theory is that Dionysius based his calculation on theGospel of Luke, which states that Jesus was "about thirty years old" shortly after "the fifteenth year of the reign ofTiberius Caesar" (AD 28/29), and hence subtracted thirty years from that date, or that Dionysius counted back 532 years from the first year of his new table.[54][55][56] This method was probably the one used by ancient historians such asTertullian,Eusebius orEpiphanius, all of whom agree that Jesus was born in 2 BC,[43] probably following this statement of Jesus' age (i.e. subtracting thirty years to AD 29).[57] Alternatively, Dionysius may have used an earlier unknown source. TheChronograph of 354 states that Jesus was born during the consulship ofCaesar andPaullus (AD 1), but the logic behind this is also unknown.[56]
It has been speculated by Georges Declercq that Dionysius' desire to replace Diocletian years with a calendar based on the incarnation of Jesus was intended to prevent people from believing the imminentend of the world.[58] At the time, it was believed by some that theresurrection of the dead and end of the world would occur 500 years after the birth of Jesus. The oldAnno Mundi calendar theoretically commenced with thecreation of the world based on information in theOld Testament. It was believed that, based on theAnno Mundi calendar, Jesus was born in the year 5500 (5500 years after the world was created) with the year 6000 of theAnno Mundi calendar marking the end of the world.[59][60]Anno Mundi 6000 (approximately AD 500) was thus equated with the end of the world[61] but this date had already passed in the time of Dionysius. TheHistoria Brittonum attributed to Nennius written in the 9th century makes extensive use of the Anno Passionis (AP) dating system which was in common use as well as the newer AD dating system. The AP dating system took its start from 'The Year of The Passion'. It is generally accepted by experts there is a 27-year difference between AP and AD reference.[62]
Pope Benedict XVI states that Dionysius Exiguus committed an error.[63][64]
Similarities between theYeshu mentioned in somerabbinic literature and the Christian Jesus have led some researchers to speculate that the former is a reference to the latter. (See for exampleJesus in the Talmud.)[65][66] This opinion is disputed however, as Yeshu also can mean "may his name and memory be blotted out", probably used as adamnatio memoriae to censor certain names.[67] It is claimed in theTalmud that Yeshu was born during the reign ofAlexander Jannaeus, who ruled from 103 BC to 76 BC. Furthermore,Sanhedrin 107b andSotah 47a mention Yeshu taking refuge in Egypt during Alexander's persecution ofPharisees (88–76 BC). Therefore, it can be assumed the Yeshu of the Talmud was born after 103 BC but before 88 BC.Hagigah 2:2 also depicts Yeshu similarly, while also claiming that Yeshu became anapostate during his refuge in Egypt.[68]
The Talmudic claim that Yeshu was born c. 103–88 BC is also repeated in theToledot Yeshu, an 11th-century Jewish text,[e][69] which implies that this belief was held by at least some Jews at that time.Baring-Gould (page 71) points out that theWagenseil version of the Toledot Yeshu incorrectly names the Queen as Helene and describes her as the widow of Alexander Jannaeus who died in 76 BC.[citation needed] (her name was in factSalome Alexandra, and she died in 67 BC). The Yeshu of the Toledot Yeshu clearly refers to Jesus of Nazareth, and there is no possibility that he is another person named Yeshu because the tract was specifically written as a response to the claims of the canonical gospels. It circulated widely in Europe and the Middle East during the Middle Ages as a Jewish response to the Christian account.[70][71] A 15th-centuryYemenite version of the text is titledMaaseh Yeshu, or the "Episode of Jesus"—in which Jesus is described as being the son of either Joseph orPandera—repeats the same claim about the date when Yeshu lived.[72] However, scholarly consensus generally sees the Toledot Yeshu as an unreliable source for thehistorical Jesus.[f]
In the third century, the precise date of Jesus's birth became a subject of great interest, with early Christian writers suggesting various dates.[11] Around AD 200,Clement of Alexandria wrote:
There are those who have determined not only the year of our Lord's birth, but also the day; and they say that it took place in the 28th year of Augustus, and in the 25th day of [the Egyptian month]Pachon [20 May] ... Further, others say that He was born on the 24th or 25th ofPharmuthi [20 or 21 April].[74]
There are two main hypotheses as to the choice of 25 December.[75][76][77][78]
Various factors contributed to the choice of 25 December as Jesus's birthday, although theology professor Susan Roll wrote in 1995: "No liturgical historian ... goes so far as to deny that it has any sort of relation with the sun, thewinter solstice and the popularity ofsolar worship in the later Roman Empire."[79] 25 December was the date of the winter solstice in the Roman calendar.[75] The Calendar ofAntiochus of Athens,c. 2nd century AD, marks 25 December as the "birthday of the Sun".[80] The following century, from AD 274, the Roman festivalDies Natalis Solis Invicti (birthday ofSol Invictus, the 'Invincible Sun') was held on 25 December.[75]
The earliest evidence of Jesus's birth being marked on 25 December is theChronograph of 354, also called the Calendar of Filocalus.[81][75][82][83] Liturgical historians generally agree that this part of the text was written in Rome in AD 336.[75] A passage in one version ofCommentary on the Prophet Daniel, originally written around AD 204 byHippolytus of Rome, identifies 25 December as Jesus's birth date, but this passage is considered a much laterinterpolation.[75][g]
Later in thefourth century, some Christian writers acknowledged that Christmas coincided with the winter solstice, and saw the lengthening days after the winter solstice as symbolizing theLight of Christ entering the world. In a late fourth-century sermon,Saint Augustine said:
He [Jesus] was born on the day which is the shortest in our earthly reckoning and from which subsequent days begin to increase in length. He, therefore, who bent low and lifted us up chose the shortest day, yet the one whence light begins to increase.[85][86]
The Christian treatiseDe solstitiis et aequinoctiis conceptionis et nativitatis Domini Nostri Iesu Christi et Iohannis Baptistae ('On the solstice and equinox conception and birth of Our Lord Jesus Christ and John the Baptist'),[87] from the second half of the fourth century,[88] is the earliest known text dating John's birth to thesummer solstice and Jesus's birth to the winter solstice.[89][90] The author says that the lengthening days after midwinter and shortening days after midsummer reflects John's remark that "He [Jesus] must increase, but I must decrease" (John 3:30).[91] Steven Hijmans of the University of Alberta concludes: "It is cosmic symbolism ... which inspired the Church leadership in Rome" to choose the winter solstice as the birthday of Jesus and the summer solstice as that of John, "supplemented by the equinoxes as their respective dates of conception".[92]
25 December was also nine months after 25 March, a date chosen as Jesus's conception (theAnnunciation) and the date of thespring equinox on the Roman calendar.[93]

Based on this winter solstice link, the "History of Religions hypothesis" or "Substitution theory"[96] proposes the Church chose 25 December as the birthday of Jesus (dies Natalis Christi)[97] to appropriate the Roman festival of the birthday of the Invincible Sun (dies Natalis Solis Invicti), held on the same date.[98][99] It honored the sun godSol Invictus, and some scholars hold that it was instituted by the EmperorAurelian in AD 274. In Rome, this yearly festival was celebrated with thirty chariot races.[99] Christmas thus emerged during "the peak of state-supported sun worship" in the Empire,[100] where most Christians lived. As noted above, the earliest evidence for Christ's birth being marked on 25 December dates from sixty years after Aurelian.
In AD 362, the EmperorJulian wrote in hisHymn to KingHelios that theAgon Solis (sacred contest forSol) was a festival of the sun, instituted by Emperor Aurelian, held at the end of theSaturnalia in late December.[101][102] Gary Forsythe, Professor of Ancient History, says: "This celebration would have formed a welcome addition to the seven-day period of theSaturnalia (December 17–23), Rome's most joyous holiday season since Republican times, characterized by parties, banquets, and exchanges of gifts."[99] Around AD 200,Tertullian had berated Christians for taking part in, and even adopting, the paganSaturnalia festival.[103]
At the time when Christmas emerged, some Christian writers likened Jesus to the Sun and referred to him as the 'Sun of Righteousness' (Sol Justitiae) prophesied byMalachi.[11][104]
The Christian treatiseDe solstitiis et aequinoctiis, from the latefourth century AD, associates Jesus's birth with the "birthday of the sun" and Sol Invictus:
Our Lord, too, is born in the month of December ... the eighth before the calends of January [25 December] ... But they [the pagans] call it the 'birthday of the invincible one' (Invictus). But who then is as invincible as our Lord who defeated the death he suffered? Or if they say that this is the birthday of the sun, well He Himself is the Sun of Justice.[105][106]
Early in thefifth century,Maximus of Turin said in a Christmas sermon:
People frequently call this day of the Lord's birth 'the new sun' ... even the Jews and pagans agree to the name. This should willingly be accepted by us, since with the rising of the Savior there is salvation not only for the human race, but even the brilliance of the sun itself is renewed.[107]
In a mid fifth century Christmas sermon,Pope Leo I admonishes Christians who bow their heads to the Sun as they enterOld St. Peter's Basilica. In another Christmas sermon, he rebukes those "who hold the pernicious belief that our celebration today seems to derive ... from, as they say, the rising of the 'new sun'". Susan Roll writes that "this testimony to the deep-rootedness and continued popularity of the civil sun-cult" has been put forward as evidence of the Substitution theory.[108]
The theory is mentioned in an annotation of uncertain date added to a manuscript by 12th-century Syrian bishopJacob Bar-Salibi. The scribe wrote:
It was a custom of the Pagans to celebrate on the same 25 December the birthday of the Sun, at which they kindled lights in token of festivity. In these solemnities and revelries, the Christians also took part. Accordingly, when the doctors of the Church perceived that the Christians had a leaning to this festival, they took counsel and resolved that the true Nativity should be solemnised on that day.[109]
In the 17th century,Isaac Newton, who was coincidentally born on 25 December, suggested the date of Christmas was chosen to correspond with the winter solstice.[110] In 1743, German scholarPaul Ernst Jablonski argued the date was chosen to correspond with theNatalis Solis Invicti.[111] The hypothesis was first developed substantially byHermann Usener,[112][113] a fellow German scholar, in 1889 and adopted by many scholars thereafter.[112]
Steven Hijmans of the University of Alberta says that in recent years "a fair number of scholars" have abandoned the idea that the date was chosen to appropriate the pagan festival.[114] He agrees that the Church chose the date because it was the winter solstice, but he argues that, "While they were aware that pagans called this day the 'birthday' of Sol Invictus, this did not concern them and it did not play any role in their choice of date for Christmas."[92] Hijmans says: "while the winter solstice on or around December 25 was well established in the Roman imperial calendar, there is no evidence that areligious celebration of Sol on that dayantedated the celebration of Christmas."[115] Thomas Talley argues thatAurelian instituted theDies Natalis Solis Invicti partly to give a pagan significance to a date he argues was already important for Christians.[77] According to C. Philipp E. Nothaft, a professor atTrinity College Dublin, though the history of religions hypothesis "is nowadays used as the default explanation for the choice of 25 December as Christ's birthday, few advocates of this theory seem to be aware of how paltry the available evidence actually is".[116]

The "Calculation hypothesis", suggests that 25 December was chosen because it was nine months after a date chosen as Jesus's conception (theAnnunciation): 25 March, the Roman date of the spring equinox. The hypothesis was first proposed by French priest and historianLouis Duchesne in 1889.[112][117][118] TheOxford Companion to Christian Thought remarks that the "calculations hypothesis potentially establishes 25 December as a Christian festival before Aurelian's decree".[119]
In AD 221,Sextus Julius Africanus suggested 25 March, the traditional spring equinox, as the day of creation and of Jesus's conception; theChristian Church came to celebrate as theFeast of the Annunciation.[120] While this implies a birth in December and possibly on the 25th,[121] Africanus did not offer a birth date for Jesus,[122] and was not an influential writer at the time.[123] Thomas C. Schmidt argues thatHippolytus of Rome dated the birth of Jesus on 25 December. According to Schimdt, Hippolytus in hisCanon placed the conception of Jesus during the feast ofPassover. Since Hippolytus also wrote in hisChronicon that Jesus was born exactly nine months after the anniversary of the world’s creation (which he also believed to have occurred during a Passover and on 25 March), this would imply that in Hippolytus' thought Jesus was born on 25 December.[124]
Some early Christians markedJesus's crucifixion on a date they deemed equivalent to the 14th ofNisan, the day beforePassover in the Hebrew calendar. This feast was referred to as theQuartodeciman (Latin for 'fourteenth'). Some early Christian writers equated the 14th of Nisan with the equinox on 25 March, and made the date of his conception or birth the same as that of his death.[125][126] Duchesne conjectured that Jesus was thought to have been born and died on the same day, so lived a whole number of years, "since symbolic number systems do not permit the imperfection of fractions". However, he admitted that this theory is not supported by any early Christian text.[127]
Adam C. English, professor of religion atCampbell University, has argued for the veracity of 25 December as Jesus's date of birth.[128] TheGospel of Luke[129] says that John the Baptist's conception was foretold toZechariah when he was serving as a priest at theTemple in Jerusalem. It further says that Jesus's conception was announced when John's mother was sixth months pregnant.[128] English suggests that John was conceived onYom Kippur, and dates this to theautumn equinox the year before Jesus's birth.[128] He thus dates Jesus's conception to the following spring equinox and concludes that Jesus was born on 25 December.[128] According to Normand Bonneau, earlier Christians also conjectured this.[130]
Susan Roll says the calculation hypothesis is historically the minority opinion on the origin of Christmas, but was "taught in graduate liturgy programs as a thoroughly viable hypothesis".[131] Critics of the theory, such as Bernard Botte, believe that the calculations are merely attempts by early Christians to retroactively justify the winter solstice date.[132] Hieronymus Engberding, a supporter of the theory, also conceded that the calculations were most likely devised after the fact, to justify a date already established and to highlight "God's interlocking plan".[133] Susan Roll questions whether "ordinary Christians in the third and fourth centuries [were] much interested in calculations with symbolic numbers in fantasy-combinations".[134] Likewise, Gerard Rouwhorst believes it is unlikely that feasts emerged purely "on the basis of calculations by exegetes and theologians", arguing "For a feast to take root in a community more is needed than a sophisticated computation".[135]

Despite the modern celebration ofChristmas in December, neither the Gospel of Luke nor Gospel of Matthew mention a season for Jesus' birth. Scholarly arguments have been made regarding whether shepherds would have been grazing their flock during the winter, with some scholars challenging a winter birth for Jesus,[136] and some defending the idea by citing the mildness of winters inJudea andrabbinic rules regarding sheep near Bethlehem before February, not January.[10][137][138]
The Qur'an, which is the source of Islamic tradition tells the story of Mary and the birth of Jesus (known in Islam as 'Īsā: Messenger of God) most prominently in Chapter 19. According to verse 19:25, during labor Mary was told to shake a palm tree so that ripe dates would fall off. This description, combined with the ripening period of dates places the birth of Jesus somewhere between June and October, with later times being more likely due to dates falling off easily. In thehadith compilationTuhaf al-Uqul, the sixth imam,Jafar As Sadiq says the following when approached about the birth of Jesus during Christmas: "They have lied. Rather, it was in the middle of June. The day and night become even [equal] in the middle of March." The "middle of June" that does not necessarily refer to the fifteenth of June but it is in reference to a day near thesummer equinox. As Sadiq mentions the spring equinox, which takes place near the middle of March, to make a point about the equal length of the day and night, and consequently points out, by antithesis, that of summer.[139]
Jehovah's Witnesses believe that Christmas stems from pagan traditions and was not observed by the earliest Christians.[140] They reject the idea that Jesus was born on December 25, viewing this date as a later addition made by the Church in the fourth century.[140] According to their belief, when Christianity became the Roman Empire's official religion, it replaced the pagan festival ofSaturnalia with Christmas, aligning it with thewinter solstice.[140] They also assert that many Christmas symbols have pagan roots—for instance, decorative lights symbolize the sun’s return, and Father Christmas is derived from various religious and cultural traditions.[140] Jehovah's Witnesses argue that it's improbable shepherds, mentioned in the biblical account of Jesus' birth, would have been in the fields during winter. They suggest that a more likely time for Jesus' birth was around early October in the year 2 BC.[140]
is therefore to be placed a few years earlier
Passages in Sanhedrin 107b and Sotah 47a refer to an individual named Yeshu in this event, stating this happened during their period of refuge in Egypt during the persecutions of Pharisees 88–76 BCE ordered by Alexander Jannæus. The incident is also mentioned in the Jerusalem Talmud in Chagigah 2:2 in more detail but there the person in question is not given any name.
This is likely an inference from the Talmud and other Jewish usage, where Jesus is called Yeshu, and other Jews with the same name are called by the fuller name Yehoshua, "Joshua"
"At this saying, he was very much distraught and went and told the matter to Shimon, the son of Shetaḥ." It should be noted here that this Shimon would have been a very old man at the time when Jesus' mother conceived of him. For he served as President and Judge of the court at Jerusalem under the Hasmonaean king, Alexander Janneus, in the year 67 BCE, as also in subsequent years. He is a well-known personage in Jewish sources.
Around 274 ADᵃ, Emperor Aurelian set December 25—the winter solstice at the time—for the celebration of Sol Invictus who was the 'Unconquered Sun' god. 'A marginal note on a manuscript of the writings of the Syriac biblical commentatorDionysius bar-Salibi states that in ancient times the Christmas holiday was actually shifted from 6 January to 25 December so that it fell on the same date as the pagan Sol Invictus holiday', reads an excerpt fromBiblical Archaeology. / Could early Christians have chosen 25 December to coincide with this holiday? 'The first celebration of Christmas observed by the Roman church in the West is presumed to date to [336 AD]', per the Encyclopedia Romanaᵃ, long after Aurelian established Sol Invictus' festival.
The March 25 date, which tied together the beginning of Mary's pregnancy and the incarnation of God in Jesus as occurring nine months before Christmas (December 25), supplied the rationale for setting the beginning of the ecclesiastical and legal year. ... Both the Anglicans and the Lutherans have continued to observe the March 25 date for celebrating the Annunciation.
Although HRT is nowadays used as the default explanation for the choice of 25 December as Christ's birthday, few advocates of this theory seem to be aware of how paltry the available evidence actually is.
First, we should examine the biblical evidence regardingthe timing of the conception. [...] The angel Gabriel appeared to Zechariah, husband of Elizabeth and father of John the Baptizer, on the day he was chosen by lot to enter the sanctuary of the Lord and offer incense (Luke 1:9) Zechariah belonged to the tribe of Levi, the one tribe especially selected by the Lord to serve as priests. Not restricted to any one tribal territory, the Levite priests dispersed throughout the land of Israel. Nevertheless, many chose to live near Jerusalem in order to fulfill duties in the Temple, just like Zechariah who resided at nearby Ein Karem. Lots were cast regularly to decide any number of priestly duties: preparing the altar, making the sacrifice, cleaning the ashes, burning the morning or evening incense. Yet, given the drama of the event, it would seem that he entered the Temple sanctuary on the highest and holiest day of the year, the Day of Atonement, Yom Kippur. There, beside the altar of the Lord, a radiant angel gave news of the child to be born to Elizabeth. The date reckoned for this occurrence is 24 September, based on computations from the Jewish calendar in accordance with Leviticus 23 regarding the Day of Atonement. According to Luke 1:26, Gabriel's annunciation to Mary took place in the "sixth month" of Elizabeth's pregnancy. That is, Mary conceives six months after Elizabeth. Luke repeats the uniqueness of the timing in verse 36. Counting six months from 24 September we arrive at 25 March, the most likely date for the annunciation and conception of Mary. Nine months hence takes us to 25 December, which turns out to be a surprisingly reasonable date for the birthday. [...] In Palestine, the months of November mark the rainy season, the only time of the year sheep might find fresh green grass to graze. During the other ten months of the year, animals must content themselves on dry straw. So, the suggestion that shepherds might have stayed out in the fields with their flocks in late December, at the peak of the rainy season, is not only reasonable, it is most certain.
The Roman Church celebrates the annunciation of March 25 (the Roman calendar equivalent to the Jewish fourteenth Nisan); hence Jesus' birthday occurred nine months later on December 25. This computation matches well with other indications in Luke's gospel. Christians conjectured that the priest Zechariah was serving in the temple on the Day of Atonement, roughly at the autumnal equinox, when the angel announced to him the miraculous conception of John the Baptist. At her annunciation, Mary received news that Elizabeth was in her sixth month. Sixth months after the autumnal equinox means that Mary conceived Jesus at the vernal equinox (March 25). If John the Baptist was conceived at the autumnal equinox, he was born at the summer solstice nine months later. Thus even to this day the liturgical calendar commemorates John's birth on June 24. Finally, John 3:30, where John the Baptist says of Jesus: "He must increase, but I must decrease", corroborates this tallying of dates. For indeed, after the birth of Jesus at the winter solstice the days increase, while after the birth of John at the summer solstice the days decrease.
Chryssides, George D. (12 October 2009). "Christmas".The A to Z of Jehovah's Witnesses. The A to Z Guide Series. Bloomsbury Publishing USA.ISBN 9798216245155.