Thedark forest hypothesis is the idea thatextraterrestrial civilizations may exist in abundance across the universe, but remain silent and hidden out of fear that revealing themselves would lead to destruction by a more technologically advanced and hostile civilization.[1] It is one of several proposed explanations of theFermi paradox, which contrasts the apparently high probability of extraterrestrial life with the lack of evidence for it. The hypothesis derives its name fromLiu Cixin's 2008 novelThe Dark Forest[2] although similar concepts predate the work.[3][4]
There is currently no known reliable or reproducible evidence thatextraterrestrial life forms have visited or attempted to contactEarth. Despitesystematic searches, no transmission and no firm evidence ofintelligent extraterrestrial life has been detected.[5][6][3]: 2 This runs counter to the general observations that:
These contradictory facts form the basis for theFermi paradox.[3]
The "dark forest" hypothesis presumes that any space-faring civilization would view any other intelligent life such as theirs as an inevitable threat and thus destroy any nascent life that makes itself known. As a result, theelectromagnetic radiation surveys would not find evidence of intelligent alien life.[8][9]
A similar hypothesis, under the name "deadly probes", was described by astronomer and authorDavid Brin in his 1983 summary of the arguments for and against theFermi paradox.[10]
The name of the hypothesis derives fromLiu Cixin's 2008 novelThe Dark Forest,[11] as in a "dark forest" filled with "armed hunter(s) stalking through the trees like ghosts".[12][13] According to the dark forest hypothesis, since the intentions of any newly contacted civilisation can never be known with certainty, then if one is encountered, it is best to make apreemptive strike, in order to avoid the potential extinction of one's own species. The novel provides a detailed investigation of Liu's concerns about alien contact.[2]
TheBerserker hypothesis, also known as the deadly probes scenario, proposes self-reproducing machines that would seek to destroy organic life.[3]: 112 The name derives from short stories byFred Saberhagen written in the 1960s, but the concept was introduced byJohn von Neumann in 1948 as part of his analysis of self-replicating machines.[14] While the Berserker hypothesis is also about horrible outcomes from other civilizations, unlike the Dark Forest hypothesis, the probes or their actions would seem to be detectable.[8]
The dark forest hypothesis is a special case of the "sequential and incomplete information game" ingame theory.[15][9][16]
In game theory, a "sequential and incomplete information game" is one in which players make decisions in sequence, with each player having limited knowledge about the others' choices and strategies.[17] In the case of this particular game, the only win condition is continued survival.[8] An additional constraint in the special case of the "dark forest" is the scarcity of vital resources.[9] The "dark forest" can be considered anextensive-form game with each "player" possessing the following possible actions: destroy another civilization known to the player; broadcast and alert other civilizations of one's existence; or do nothing.[15]
In addition to Fred Saberhagen'sBerserker novels,[3]: 112 variations of these ideas have been used in other science fiction stories. In 1987, science fiction authorGreg Bear explored this concept that he called a "vicious jungle" in his novelThe Forge of God.[18] InThe Forge of God, humanity is likened to a baby crying in a hostile forest: "There once was an infant lost in the woods, crying its heart out, wondering why no one answered, drawing down the wolves." One of the characters explains, "We've been sitting in our tree chirping like foolish birds for over a century now, wondering why no other birds answered. The galactic skies are full of hawks, that's why. Planetisms that don't know enough to keep quiet, get eaten."[4]
The term "dark forest" was coined for the idea in 2008 by science fiction authorLiu Cixin in his novelThe Dark Forest.[19][2]In Liu Cixin's novel, the dark forest hypothesis is introduced by the character Luo Ji, while discussing with Ye Wenjie. She introduces three key axioms to a new field she describes as "cosmic sociology":[20][8]
The only logical conclusion from the acceptance of these axioms as well as two other considerations, "chain of suspicion" and "technological explosion", according to the character Ye was talking to, is that any civilization that revealed itself will be considered as an imminent existential threat by at least some of the other civilizations, among which some will then proceed to destroy the civilization that makes itself known.[20][8]
In the third book of the trilogy, the perspective of the hunters inThe Dark Forest is further illustrated through an alien character called Singer, who thinks that intelligent life that does not fear the dark forest would "expand and attack without fear".[21] In other words, dark-forest-fearing civilizations are benign, civilizations that would reveal themselves are evil, and hunters are enforcers and protectors.
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