Aconvention bounce orconvention bump refers to an increase in support that U.S. presidential candidates in theRepublican orDemocratic party typically enjoy after the televisednational convention of their party.[1] Apresumptive nominee for president may also be said to experience a "VP bounce" after announcing his or her pick for vice president prior to the convention. The size and impact of convention bumps vary, but presidential candidates usually see at least a small uptick in their polling numbers coming out of their conventions.[2]
Bill Clinton benefited from one of the largest bumps in history after theDemocratic National Convention in 1992, climbing by as many as 30 points in the polls, however this was assisted by Independent Ross Perot, who at the time was polling at 20%, withdrawing from the race during the Democratic convention.[3] Incumbent PresidentGeorge H. W. Bush's convention bounce was weak by comparison. Some party leaders blaming formerprimary challengerPat Buchanan's fiery and divisive speech, which aired inprimetime due to a scheduling delay.[citation needed]
Al Gore's 2000 bounce endured for weeks. Prior to theDemocratic convention, Gore was behindTexas Gov.George W. Bush by as many as 16 points,[4] but was in a statistical tie with the Republican the weekend after his acceptance speech.[4][5]
Democratic candidateJohn Kerry did not get a convention bounce in 2004.[6]
Polls indicated a small bounce for 2008 Democratic presidential nomineeBarack Obama afterhis party's convention in August,[7] but as expected, much of it evaporated during and after theRepublican convention the week following, yielding GOP candidateJohn McCain a small lead in several polls.[8][9]Nielsen ratings revealed that year's party conventions to be the most-watched ever, with the Republican convention narrowly trumping the Democrats'.[10]
TheRealClearPolitics polling index revealed the 2012 convention bounces for President Obama and GOP challengerMitt Romney to be comparably smaller than in past elections.[11] Though Romney pulled even with Obama during that year'sRepublican convention at the end of August, Obama opened up a three- or four-point lead during theDemocratic convention the week after.[11]
In 2016, news sources and polls differed greatly on the size of the convention bounces received by RepublicanDonald Trump and DemocratHillary Clinton after their respective conventions;[12][13][14][15] however, the RealClearPolitics polling index showed both candidates trending upward leading up to and after their acceptance speeches.[16] Clinton's bounce lasted somewhat longer than Trump's.[16]
Democratic candidateJoe Biden, who held the lead over incumbent Republican Trump entering theDemocratic convention, did not get a convention bounce,[17][18] with aCNBC-Change Research poll also indicating that the race had instead tightened in theswing states.[19] Republican candidateDonald Trump similarly did not receive a convention bounce after theRepublican convention[20][21] with aCNN poll indicating that the race remained unchanged after both conventions.[22]
Similarly to 2020, no clear convention bounce was observed for either former president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, or Vice PresidentKamala Harris, the Democratic nominee. A convention bounce for Trump was considered hard to measure due to the impact ofPresident Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race on July 21, 2024, only three days after the convention ended on July 18, as well as theattempted assassination of Donald Trump on July 13, though some polls showed an increase in favorability for Trump. Harris also did not receive a convention bounce after the Democratic National Convention, with some speculating that her "bounce" had already occurred at the onset of her candidacy following the withdrawal of Joe Biden.[23]
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