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Theconservative wave (Portuguese:onda conservadora;Spanish:ola conservadora), orblue tide (Portuguese:maré azul;Spanish:marea azul), was aright-wing political phenomenon that occurred in the mid-2010s to the early 2020s acrossLatin America as a direct reaction to thepink tide. During the conservative wave,left-wing governments suffered their first major electoral losses in a decade.
In Argentina,Mauricio Macri (liberal-conservative,center-right) succeededCristina Fernández de Kirchner (Peronist) in 2015. In Brazil, theimpeachment of Dilma Rousseff, asocialist, resulted in her departure and the rise of Vice PresidentMichel Temer to power in 2016, and later tofar-right congressmanJair Bolsonaro becomingPresident of Brazil. In Peru, the conservative economistPedro Pablo Kuczynski succeededOllanta Humala, a socialist andleft-wing nationalist. In Chile, the conservativeSebastián Piñera succeededMichelle Bachelet, asocial democrat, in 2018 in the same transition that occurred in 2010. In Bolivia, the conservativeJeanine Áñez succeededEvo Morales amid the2019 Bolivian political crisis. In Ecuador, the centre-right conservative bankerGuillermo Lasso succeeded the deeply unpopularLenín Moreno, becoming the first right-wingPresident of Ecuador in 14 years.[1]
Starting in the mid-2020s, right-wing candidates were able to rebound with some victories. In late 2023 and early 2024,right-wing libertarianJavier Milei won the2023 Argentine presidential election, defeatedPeronistSergio Massa; centre-right banana tycoonDaniel Noboa defeating leftistLuisa González inEcuador; right-wing politicianJosé Raúl Mulino defeated the incumbent center-left vice presidentJosé Gabriel Carrizo in the2024 Panamanian general election.[2][3][4] This trend continued into 2025 with conservativeRodrigo Paz electedPresident of Bolivia, defeating the ruling socialist MAS inBolivia for the first time in decades.[5][6]
In the late 2010s and early 2020s, the conservative wave began to decline following left-wing victories,[7][8] starting with the2018 Mexican general election and the2020 Bolivian general election, and later the2021 Peruvian general election,2021 Chilean presidential election,2021 Honduran general election,[9][10] the2022 Colombian presidential election, which resulted in the first left-wing president in the country's history,[11][12] and the2022 Brazilian general election,[13] in which former leftist presidentLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who had his political rights restored, defeated Bolsonaro.[14][15]
In Argentina, the election ofMauricio Macri of thecentre-right in November 2015 asPresident of Argentina brought aright-wing government to power, although thepopulist movements ofPeronism andKirchnerism, which are tied to its leaderCristina Fernández de Kirchner's popularity,[16] initially remained somewhat strong.[17] In October 2017, Macri established a more firm hold on power when many candidates of hisCambiemos party enjoyed victories in the2017 Argentine legislative election.[18]
In the2019 Argentine presidential election, Macri lost to the left-leaningAlberto Fernández, who was sworn into office in December 2019.[19] However,right-wing libertarianJavier Milei won the2023 Argentine presidential election, defeatingPeronistSergio Massa.[3]
In Brazil, a conservative wave began roughly around the timeDilma Rousseff won the2014 Brazilian presidential election in a tight election, kicking off the fourth term of theWorkers' Party in the highest position of government.[20] According to political analyst of the Inter-Union Department of Parliamentary Advice, Antônio Augusto de Queiroz, theNational Congress of Brazil elected in 2014 may be considered the mostconservative since the re-democratization movement, citing an increase in the number of parliamentarians linked to more conservative segments, such asruralists, themilitary of Brazil,police of Brazil, andreligious conservatives. The subsequent economic crisis of 2015 and investigations of corruption scandals led to a right-wing movement that sought to rescue ideas fromeconomic liberalism and conservatism inopposition toleft-wing politics. At the same time, young liberals such as those that make up theFree Brazil Movement emerged among many others. For José Manoel Montanha da Silveira Soares, within a single real generation there may be several generations that he called "differentiated and antagonistic". For him, it is not the common birth date that marks a generation, though it matters, but rather the historical moment in which they live in common. In this case, the historical moment was theimpeachment of Dilma Rousseff. They can be called the "post-Dilma generation".[21]
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Centrist interim PresidentMichel Temer took office following the impeachment of Rousseff. Temer held 3% approval ratings in October 2017,[22] facing a corruption scandal after accusations forobstructing justice andracketeering were placed against him.[23] He managed to avoid trial thanks to the support of the right-wing parties in the National Congress.[22][23] On the other hand,President of the Senate,Renan Calheiros, who was acknowledged as one of the key figures behind Rousseff's destitution and member of the centristBrazilian Democratic Movement, was himself removed from office after facingembezzlement charges.[24]
Conservative candidateJair Bolsonaro of theSocial Liberal Party was the winner of the2018 Brazilian presidential election followed by left-wing formermayor of São Paulo,Fernando Haddad, ofLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva's Workers' Party.[25] Lula was banned to run after being convicted on criminal corruption charges and being imprisoned.[26][27][28] Bolsonaro would later lose to Lula in the2022 Brazilian presidential election after his political rights were restored, becoming the first sitting president to lose a bid for a second term since the possibility of reelection for an immediately consecutive term became permitted by a constitutional amendment.[29][30]
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InEcuador, the policies and legacy of left-wing former PresidentRafael Correa is controversial. His successor,Lenín Moreno, was elected in the2017 Ecuadorian general election defeating conservative bankerGuillermo Lasso;[31] a recount was needed amid allegations of fraud.[32][33] The presidency of Moreno was also seen as controversial due to his shift to the centre andneoliberal policies, overseeing controversialausterity measures in petroleum which sparked the2019 Ecuadorian protests and his mishandling of theCOVID-19 pandemic in Ecuador.[34]
In the2021 Ecuadorian general election, Lasso announced his third presidential campaign and eventually advanced to the run-off by a narrow second-place finish.[35] The election was noted as it saw Lasso, a conservative banker againstsocialist economist and Correa allyAndrés Arauz.[36] Arauz was seen as the front-runner for the run-off election with him leading in several polls two weeks prior to the election.[37][38] In the April run-off, Lasso managed to defeat Arauz in what some media called anupset victory after winning 52.4% of the vote, while Arauz won 47.6% of the vote.[39][40]
During the2023 general election that took place to replace Lasso as president, businessman and former National Assembly memberDaniel Noboa was elected to the presidency.[41] His political ideology has been described as bothcentrist andcentre-right.[42]
InGuatemala,social democratic leaderAlvaro Colom of the centre-leftNational Unity of Hope was elected president in the2007 Guatemalan general election, being the only modern day leftist president in the country. Colom's successor, right-wingOtto Pérez Molina of thePatriotic Party, was forced to resign his presidency due to popular unrest,[43][44] as well as corruption scandals that ended with his arrest.[45] Following Molina's resignation, right-wingJimmy Morales was elected into office following the2015 Guatemalan general election. As of 2018, he was under investigation for illegal financing.[46] Morales successorAlejandro Giammattei also experienced massive popular unrest, resulting in the2020 Guatemalan protests.[47]
InHonduras,Manuel Zelaya's turn to the left during his tenure resulted in the2009 Honduran coup d'état, which was condemned by the entire region, including the United States. Years later after the coup, Zelaya said his overthrow was the beginning of the "conservative restoration" in Latin America.[48]
After the coup, the next democratically elected president was right-wingPorfirio Lobo Sosa (2010–2014), then right-wingJuan Orlando Hernández of the conservativeNational Party of Honduras won the2013 Honduran presidential election over left-wingXiomara Castro (Zelaya's wife) by a slight margin. Soon after, Hernández reformed theConstitution of Honduras to allow himself to be candidate for immediate reelection (something until then forbidden by Honduran law) and ran as candidate for the2017 Honduran presidential election in what some observers question as undemocratic, authoritarian-leaning,[49][50] and corrupt.[51][52]
During the election, Hernández' tight self-proclaimed victory overSalvador Nasralla of the opposition alliance, alongside accusations ofvoter fraud, caused massive riots throughout Honduras. The declaration of acurfew from the country was labeled as illegal by some jurists,[53] and the violent repression of the protests left at least seven dead and dozens injured.[54] Due to the general popular unrest and voter fraud allegations, theOrganization of American States requested a new election to no avail.[55][56][57][58]
Castro would eventually win the2021 Honduran presidential election with Nasralla as her running mate, while Hernández was arrested and extradited on request of the United States for alleged involvement with the illegal narcotics trade.[59][60]
In Paraguay, theconservative, right-wingColorado Party ruled the country for over sixty years, including thedictatorship ofAlfredo Stroessner that lasted thirty-five years, from 1954 to 1989, and was supported by the United States.[61][62]
Paraguay is one of the poorest countries ofSouth America and least developed countries according to theHuman Development Index. Thisdominant-party system was temporarily broken in the2008 Paraguayan general election, when practically the entire opposition united in thePatriotic Alliance for Change managed to electFernando Lugo, a former Bishop and member of theChristian Democratic Party, asPresident of Paraguay. Lugo's government was praised for its social reforms, including investments in low-income housing,[63] the introduction of free treatment in public hospitals,[64][65] the introduction of cash transfers for Paraguay's most impoverished citizens,[66] and indigenous rights.[67] Nevertheless, Lugo did not finish his period as he wasimpeached, despite enjoying very high approval ratings and popularity. Theimpeachment of Lugo was rejected by theInter-American Commission on Human Rights,[68] condemned by both right-wing and left-wing governments,[69][70] and considered acoup d'état byUNASUR andMercosur, which responded with sanctions and suspensions for Paraguay.[71] Lugo was later elected to theSenate of Paraguay and became President of the Senate. He was replaced by Vice PresidentFederico Franco, who was distanced from Lugo by ideological reasons, opposed to the entry of Venezuela into the Mercosur, and was described as conservative.[72][73]
The country's next democratically elected president after the2013 Paraguayan general election, right-wingHoracio Cartes of the Colorado Party, described by human rights organizations asauthoritarian andhomophobic,[74] attempted to reform theConstitution of Paraguay to allow himself to be re-elected indefinitely, which caused popular uproar and the2017 Paraguayan crisis.[75][76][77] He served until 2018, and his successor following the2018 Paraguayan general election was fellow conservativeMario Abdo Benítez,[78] who was in turn succeeded by the next conservative president,Santiago Peña, in 2023.[79]
InPeru,Pedro Pablo Kuczynski won the2016 Peruvian presidential election, with Peru becoming yet another country that departed from acentre-left government.[80] In this election, the third candidate with major support was leftist candidateVerónika Mendoza of theBroad Front with 18% of votes.[81] Following corruption investigations surrounding Odebrecht, theCongress of the Republic of Peru demanded Kuczynski to defend himself in a session, withMarcelo Odebrecht stating that Kuczynski's involvement with the company was legal compared to the illegalities performed by his leftist predecessor.[82] Due to the corruption scandal, thefirst impeachment process against Pedro Pablo Kuczynski was started,[83] but voted against by a slight margin in Congress.[84]
After theKenjivideos scandal in which videos were leaked to the public showing bribery from theFujimorists to keep Kuczynski in office, Kuczyinski resigned on his own. Kuczynski's successor, centristMartin Vizcarra, changed policies. Amid the2019 Peruvian constitutional crisis, he dissolved Congress on 30 September, which angered Fujimorists. In the2020 Peruvian parliamentary election, the main opposition partiesPeruvian Aprista Party andPopular Force lost the majority in congress. Theremoval of Martín Vizcarra began after accuses of corruption. Many centrists and leftists were angry, as the conservativeManuel Merino took power in his place. This led to the2020 Peruvian protests, and Merino resigned from office. CentristFrancisco Sagasti succeeded him. In the days leading to the run-off of the2021 Peruvian presidential election, conservative candidateKeiko Fujimori had a slight lead in the polls over socialist candidatePedro Castillo.[85] On 19 July, Castillo was declared the winner in a close and highly contested election.[86] However, president Castillo wasremoved from office by Congress on 7 December 2022.[87]
On the political changes that were happening in the country, a collection of twenty essays organized by Felipe Demier and Rejane Hoeveler, titledThe Conservative Wave – Essays on the Current Dark Times in Brazil, was launched in 2016. In the synopsis, it is emphasized the rootedness ofreactionary thinking and practices in Brazilian state powers and Brazilian society in multiple dimensions as well as the challenges that the left will have to face. Many Brazilians who supportJair Bolsonaro's government believe that theWorkers' Party and rampantcorruption in Brazil are to blame for difficulties in the economy.[88][89]
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The timeline begins before the start of the wave in order to represent graphically the increase of conservative governments over the years.
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