Climate change in Senegal will have wide reaching impacts on many aspects of life inSenegal.Climate change will cause an increase in average temperatures over west Africa by between 1.5 and 4 °C (3 °F and 7 °F) by mid-century, relative to 1986–2005.[1] Projections of rainfall indicate an overall decrease in rainfall and an increase in intense mega-storm events over theSahel.[2][3] The sea level is expected to rise faster inWest Africa than the global average.[4][5] AlthoughSenegal is currently not a major contributor to globalgreenhouse gas emissions, it is one of the countries mostvulnerable to climate change.[6][7]
Extremedrought is impactingagriculture, and causing food and job insecurity. More than 70% of thepopulation is employed in theagricultural sector.Sea level rise and resultingcoastal erosion is expected to cause damage to coastal infrastructure and displace a large percentage of the population living incoastal areas. Climate change also has the potential to increaseland degradation that will likely increasedesertification in eastern Senegal, leading to an expansion of theSahara.[8]
Climate change adaptation policies and plans are important to help Senegal prepare and adapt. In 2006, Senegal submitted its National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) to theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.[9] The NAPA identifies water resources, agriculture, and coastal zones as the country's most vulnerable sectors.[10] In 2015, Senegal released itsIntended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC's) that indicated climate change would be treated as a national priority.[10]
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Senegal is currently not a major contributor toglobal greenhouse gas emissions. The country contributes less than a ton of CO2 per person per year (compared to the global average of over 6 tons per person per year[11]) and placing 150th in thelist of countries byCO
2 emissions.[6] However, it is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change.[6][7]
Mostenergy in Senegal is produced fromfossil fuels,[12] predominantly diesel and gas. A small portion ofSenegal's energy comes from renewable energy, such as theManantali Dam inMali and a new wind farm inThiès.
Historically, Senegal was not a major producer of fossil fuels but significant discoveries innatural gas, have led to a major increase in production.[13]
West Africa is expected to be affected by climate change caused by rising temperatures, decreased rainfall, increased mega-storms and rising sea levels. Average temperatures over west Africa are projected to increase by between 1.5 and 4 °C (34.7 and 39.2 °F) by mid-century, relative to 1986–2005.[1] Projections of rainfall indicate an overall decrease in rainfall and an increase in intense mega-storm events over the Sahel.[2][3]
The sea level is expected to rise faster in West Africa then the global average.[4][5]
The mainwater resources in Senegal are dependent on rainfall.Rainfall deficits and increased variability due to climate change will likely reduce aquifer recharge rates. Major population centers are already realizing saltwater intrusion into aquifers and arable land.Sea level rise and decreased rainfall will exacerbate salinity issues.[17] As more saltwater intrusion happens, this will threaten fish stock in the country.[8]
The combination of increased temperatures and decreased rainfall will likely increasedesertification in eastern Senegal, leading to expansion of theSahara.[8]
Like in other parts ofWest Africa, the expectedextreme weather including more severe drought in theSahel region is expected to greatly effectfood security andagricultural yields.[18]
Climate change is likely to result in reduced yields of key crops, includingsorghum andmillet, placing pressure on rural livelihoods[19] sinceagriculture employs about 70% of the population of Senegal. For example, some projections suggest that between 2000 - 2009 there was a 10 -20% reduction in millet and a 5 - 15% reduction in sorghum yields due to climate change.[19]Climate change adaptation for millet and sorghum include options such as increasing crop tolerances to high temperatures during the flowering period[20][21] and increasing cultivars' thermal time requirement.[21][22]
Moreover,animal herding communities, which include about 2.5 million people in the broaderSahel region, will be severally impacted, because weather variability will lead to increasedovergrazing, pressure on water supplies, and subsequent effects on the economic viability of herding communities.[23] For example, in 2017, pressures on lands led to increased demand formanufactured animal feed, causing prices to skyrocket and farmers to sell large portions of their herds.[23]
Sea level rise is expected to displace a large percentage of Senegal's population.[6] Nearly 70% of the population lives in coastal zones.[6] The government is already moving communities in high-risk flood areas.[6] Additionally nearly 90% of industry in Senegal is in that samecoastal region. Extreme weather events andcoastal flooding could jeopardize these major economic centers.[17]
In 2006, Senegal initiated a National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) as part of the larger trend to createNational Adaptation Plans.[18][9] A National Committee on Climate Change was appointed by presidential degree to support the program.[18] Additionally, there is a Climate Fund that is an instrument ofclimate finance.[17]
In 2015, Senegal released itsNationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) that indicated climate change would be treated as a national priority.[10]
Climate financein Senegal encompasses public and private resources aimed at addressing the challenges posed by a highly variable climate and significant socioeconomic vulnerabilities. The country, located in thetropical –Sahelian transition zone, experiences dry and rainy cycles controlled by the seasonal migration of theintertropical convergence zone and thetrade winds.[24] This pattern has become increasingly unpredictable, with prolonged droughts and extreme rainfall becoming more frequent, impacting rain fed agriculture —which accounts for a significant portion of the rural economy—and generating devastating floods.[25][26]
The Senegalese energy sector remains heavily dependent onfossil fuels, whilerenewable sources (solar,wind, andhydro) reached 36–40% overall.[27] Although per capita emissions are relatively low, this exceeds the average for manysub-Saharan African countries.[28][29] The electrification rate reached 84% in 2023, with urban coverage of 97% and rural coverage of 64%.[30][31][32] Senegal faces the challenge of mobilizing domestic and external resources to meet ambitious climate targets and promote climate-resilient development.[33]At the same time that these policies are in place, there is evidence that they are not fully being acted on. For example, an article inThe Nation focused onclimate justice described how a coal fire power plan was built inBargny, Senegal, a site that had been identified by the government as a displacement location forcommunities displaced by sea level rise.[6]
Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
"The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can.The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario.Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.
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