Climate change is posing an increasing threat to global socioeconomic development and environmental sustainability.[4] Developing countries with low adaptive capacity and high vulnerability to the phenomenon are disproportionately affected.Climate change in Kenya is increasingly impacting the lives ofKenya's citizens and theenvironment.[4] Climate change has led to more frequentextreme weather events likedroughts which last longer than usual, irregular and unpredictable rainfall, flooding and increasing temperatures.
The effects of these climatic changes have made already existing challenges withwater security,food security andeconomic growth even more difficult. Harvests and agricultural production which account for about 33%[5] of totalGross Domestic Product (GDP)[6] are also at risk. The increased temperatures,rainfall variability inarid andsemi-arid areas, and strongwinds associated withtropicalcyclones have combined to create favourable conditions for the breeding andmigration of pests.[7] An increase in temperature of up to 2.5 °C by 2050 is predicted to increase the frequency of extreme events such asfloods anddroughts.[4]
Hot and dry conditions inArid andSemi-Arid Lands (ASALs) makedroughts orflooding brought on by extremeweather changes even more dangerous. Coastal communities are already experiencingsea level rise and associated challenges such assaltwater intrusion.[4]Lake Victoria,Lake Turkana and other lakes have significantly increased in size between 2010 and 2020[8] flooding lakeside communities.[9] All these factors impact at-risk populations like marginalized communities, women and the youth.[6]
Kenya's annualgreenhouse gas emissions are low at less than 1tonne per person,[10] totalling less than 100 million tonnes of CO2eq a year,[11][12][13] of which almost a third is fromdeforestation.[14] In 2020 Kenya submitted a Forest Reference Level to the UNFCCC.[15] In terms of global context, Kenya accounted for just 0.1% of CO2 emissions fromcombustible fuels in 2021.[16]
| Year | tCO2 / Capit |
|---|---|
| 2012 | 0.244 |
| 2013 | 0.265 |
| 2014 | 0.301 |
| 2015 | 0.319 |
| 2016 | 0.333 |
| 2017 | 0.347 |
| 2018 | 0.325 |
| 2019 | 0.324 |
| 2020 | 0.303 |
| 2021 | 0.329 |
Half ofKenya's electricity is produced throughhydropower because the generation and distribution of electricity is unreliable, some manufacturing firms generate supplemental power with fossil fuel sources. Droughts and increasingevaporation also decreasedhydropower capacity, which will in turn increase the use of morepolluting energy sources.[18][failed verification]
Human activities increases the strength ofgreenhouse effect which contributes toclimate change. Most likely iscarbon dioxide from burningfossil fuels:coal,oil, andnatural gas.
The temperature anomalies was positive every year since 2000 with respect to theclimatological mean of the years 1981 to 2010 according to satellite data.[19]Analysis of climate trends in Kenya'sArid andSemi Arid (ASAL) areas shows an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall between 1977 and 2014.[20]Climate change impacts are predicted to be particularly pronounced in ASALs where the economy and rural livelihoods are highly dependent on climate-sensitive activities, such aspastoralism and rainfed cultivation.
Increased temperatures,rainfall variability and strongwinds associated with tropicalcyclones have combined to create favourable conditions for the breeding ofinsects andpests. For instance, in early 2020 some parts of Kenya and neighbouringEast African Countries faced massive swarms oflocusts.[7] Even if directly attributing specificinfestations to climate change is difficult, climate change is known to be capable of changing the feeding and outbreak dynamics of some insect species.
Recent weather patterns in Kenya have deviated from the norm, with unusually severe rains from March to May this year, influenced by theEl Niño phenomenon which highlights the increased variability and severity of weather events.[21]
Currently, the annual rise ofsea level isapproximately 3mm every year. Regional variations exist due to natural variability in regional winds and ocean currents, which can take place over periods of days, months or even decades.
Global coastal areas face challenges as a result of anthropogenic sea-level rise. Rising mean sea levels (MSL) and storm surges combine to exacerbate extreme sea levels (ESL). Increasing ESL is a significant challenge for nearly 2.6 billion people in theIndian Ocean region to adapt to climate change.[22] Around 17% – 4,600 hectares (11,000 acres) – ofMombasa would be threatened by a sea level rise of 30 centimetres (12 in).[18]
Rising sea levels will likely lead to destruction of infrastructure including ship docking ports and industries located within the coast region if no adaptation strategies are implemented. It can also lead to even increased acute water supply and salinization problems, as freshwater aquifers are contaminated.
The replenishment ofgroundwaterreservoirs, a major source of drinking water in Africa, is being threatened by a reduction inprecipitation.[23] Rainfall levels between March and May/June decreased in Eastern Africa from at least the 1980s onwards, and monsoon rain decreased between 1948 and 2009 in theHorn of Africa.[24] The annual flow of water from rivers passing throughEast Africa, such as theNile, will decrease as a result of climate change. Increasing drought anddesertification is expected to cause an increased scarcity of freshwater.[25][26] While international standards suggest that 1,000 m3 of water should be available per person, only 586 m3 was available in 2010, and this may fall to 293 m3 by 2050. The shrinking ofMount Kenya's glaciers has exacerbated water shortages. Due to glacial run-off, rivers that once flowed year round now flow seasonally, aggravating conflicts over water resources.[18]
Climate change may significantly disrupt theecosystem services involved in agriculture, such as by affectingspecies distribution, inter-species relationships, and altering the effectiveness of management regimes.[27] Such services are also needed by the $2.5 billion tourism sector.[18]: 3 Kenya's wildlife species are expected to be affected in a variety of ways as the climate changes, with changes in temperature and rainfall affecting seasonal events and species ranges.[28]
.jpg)
Forest cover 7.4 percent of Kenya's land, and provide services including improving water quality, preventingerosion, and absorbing greenhouse gases, in addition to being habitats for other wildlife. According to theUN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), forest cover in Kenya declined sharply from 12% in 1990 to 6% in 2010, before recovering slightly to 9% by 2022, as reported by theKenya Forest Service.[29]
Historically, from 1990 to 2015, the forest cover decreased by 25% (824,115 hectares), averaging a loss of 33,000 hectares per year.[30] More recently, this rate has decreased to about 5,000 hectares lost annually.[31]
This reduces both the ecosystem services the forests provide, including by diminishingwood yield and quality, and thebiodiversity they support. Climate change may impede the recovery of these forests. It adversely affects forest regenerative capacity, limiting tree growth and survival, as well as increasing pest andpathogen range. There is also an increased risk and severity of forest fires astemperatures increase and droughts increase in length.[32]: 16 Other affected habitats arecoral reefs andmangroves, whose ecosystem services include protection from storm surges, providing opportunities foreco-tourism, and sustaining fisheries which are directly affected by increasing temperatures and rising sea levels.[18]: 3
The two most important sectors of the Kenyan economy[5] areagriculture andtourism, both of which[4] are highly vulnerable toeffects of climate change.[18] Adrought lasting from 2008 to 2011 caused an estimated $12.1 billion in damage.[33] Food insecurity caused droughts from 2014 to 2022 which affected approximately 3.4 million people while in 2018, about 500,000 people lost access to water.[34]
With a population of 48.5 million people,[35] Kenya is the largest economy in East andCentral Africa, and serves as a diplomatic, communications, financial and trade hub within the region.[36][37] Economic damage caused byclimate variability andextreme weather may equate to 2.6% of GDP by 2030.[18]
.jpg)
Agriculture remains an important component of Kenyan households' economic and social well-being.[38]Climate change is already affecting the country'sagricultural sector,[39][40] which is responsible for over 33 percent of Kenya's GDP and is the primary source of sustenance for 60% of the population.[18] Three quarters of Kenya'sfarming produce comes from small scale farmers.[41] In some areas ofKenya temperatures can exceed 35 °C (95 °F), at which the heat is damaging tomaize, a staple crop in Kenya.[18]
Kenya is one of the world's largest producers oftea, with the sector accounting for about a quarter of total export earnings and 4% of GDP.[42] The industry provides rural jobs that are key to the reduction ofrural–urban migration, but the areas currently used to cultivate tea are expected to face increasing climate driven stresses.[27]
High temperatures are also expected to increase pest and disease loads in domesticated animals, especially in arid and semi-arid (ASALs) regions.[18] Livestock trends in ASALs between 1977 and 2016 show cattle declined by 26.5%, while sheep and goats increase by 76% and camels by 13.3%. Climate change could result in the loss of 52% of the ASAL cattle population (or 1.7 million cattle) at a cost of US$340–680 million to the economy.[20]
A number of startups, non profits and companies are working toaddress climate change–related issues.[43]
Kenya'smanufacturing sector, which produces good for both domestic use and exports, is one of the largest inSub-Saharan Africa, accounting for almost 10% of GDP in 2010, and employing 13% offormal sector labour in 2012,[44] its output was valued at over KES1 trillion in 2014.[45] Consuming around 60% ofelectricity generated in the country, manufacturing produces about 10% of Kenya'sgreenhouse gas emissions.[44]
Kenya's National Climate Change Action Plan[46] (NCCAP) identifies some impacts of climate change on the manufacturing sector:[44]
Different effects caused or exacerbated by climate change, such as heat, drought, and floods, negatively affect human health.[32]: 12 Therisk of vector and water borne diseases will rise.[47]: 1 83 million people are expected to be at risk ofmalaria alone by 2070,[47]: 3 a disease which is already responsible for 5% ofdeaths in children under the age of five and causes large expense.[18]: 4 Dengue fever is similarly expected to increase by 2070.[47]: 3
Among people aged 65 and over,heat stress-relatedmortality is expected to increase from 2 deaths per 100,000 per year in 1990 to 45 per 100,000 by 2080.[18]: 4 [47]: 4 Under a low-emissions scenario, this may be limited to just 7 deaths per 100,000 in 2080. Under a highemission scenario, climate change is expected to exacerbatediarrhea deaths, causing around 9% of such deaths for children under 15 by 2030, and 13% of such deaths by 2050.Malnutrition may rise by up to 20% by 2050. In 2009, it was recorded in Kenya that the prevalence of stunting in children, underweight children and wasting in children under age 5 was 35.2%, 16.4% and 7.0%, respectively.[47]: 4
The National Environmental Management Authority in the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry (MECCF), the National Climate Change Activities Coordinating Committee, and theKenya Meteorological Department in the Ministry of Transport are the major components of the government'sinstitutional framework tasked with the day to day building ofclimate resilience.[48]
In 2010 the Kenyan government published the National Climate Change Response Strategy.[49] The Climate Change Act 2016 establishes a National Climate Change Council, which is chaired by Kenya's president,[18]: 4 with the authority to oversee "the development, management, implementation and regulation of mechanisms to enhance climate change resilience and low carbon development for the sustainable development of Kenya", by the National and County Governments, the private sector, civil society, and others.[50]
TheNational Adaptation Plan (NAP) was implemented in 2015 to improveclimate resilience.[51][52] The NAP contains the Adaptation Technical Analysis Report (ATAR), which examines sectoral economic vulnerabilities, identifies adaptation needs, and suggests potential adaptation actions in different counties.[51] The NAP supports the development of local County Integrated Development Plans (CIPDs), which includes the establishment of County Climate Change Funds (CCCFs).[52]
The current National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP 2018–2022) follows the National Climate Change Action Plan 2013–2017. The plan focuses on adaptation and mitigation measures the country can take, with the aim of "low carbon climate resilient development".[53] TheNational Environment Management Authority serves as the country's accredited body to international climate financing organizations such asThe Adaptation Fund and theGreen Climate Fund.[18]
In 2022 PresidentRuto said: "Windturbines andsolar panels are quick to construct and can generate and deliver power far more quickly and easily than a newoil rig, and with much less harm to our fragile climate."[54]
Inurban areas, increasing population and informal settlement size is exposing more people toheat, flooding, andwater scarcity. The consequences of climate change have impacted marginalized communities,women and theyouth.[6]
TheArid and Semi Arid areas host 38% of the population, and produce 12% of GDP.[55][32]Poverty rates in northern ASALs remains above 80%, despite overall decreasing national poverty rates.[18]
Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
"The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can.The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario.Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.
Climate change by country | |
|---|---|
| Africa | |
| Americas | |
| Asia | |
| Europe | |
| Oceania | |
| Polar regions | |
| Other regions | |
