Climate change is particularly important inAsia, as the continent accounts for the majority of the human population. Warming since the 20th century is increasing the threat ofheatwaves across the entire continent.[3]: 1459 Heatwaves lead to increased mortality, and the demand forair conditioning is rapidly accelerating as the result. By 2080, around 1 billion people in the cities ofSouth andSoutheast Asia are expected to experience around a month of extreme heat every year.[3]: 1460 Theimpacts on water cycle are more complicated: already arid regions, primarily located inWest Asia andCentral Asia, will see moredroughts, while areas ofEast, Southeast and South Asia which are already wet due to themonsoons will experience more flooding.[3]: 1459
The waters around Asia are subjected to the sameimpacts as elsewhere, such as the increased warming andocean acidification.[3]: 1465 There are manycoral reefs in the region, and they are highly vulnerable to climate change,[3]: 1459 to the point practically all of them will be lost if the warming exceeds 1.5 °C (2.7 °F).[4][5] Asia's distinctivemangrove ecosystems are also highly vulnerable tosea level rise.[3]: 1459 Asia also has more countries with large coastal populations than any other continent, which would cause large economic impacts from sea level rise.[3]: 1459 Water supplies in theHindu Kush region will become more unstable as its enormousglaciers, known as the "Asian water towers", gradually melt.[3]: 1459 These changes to water cycle also affect vector-borne disease distribution, with malaria and dengue fever expected to become more prominent in the tropical and subtropical regions.[3]: 1459 Food security will become more uneven, and South Asian countries could experience significant impacts from global food price volatility.[3]: 1494
Historical emissions from Asia are lower than those from Europe and North America. However, China has been the single largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the 21st century, while India is the third-largest. As a whole, Asia currently accounts for 36% of world's primaryenergy consumption, which is expected to increase to 48% by 2050. By 2040, it is also expected to account for 80% of the world'scoal and 26% of the world'snatural gas consumption.[3]: 1468 While theUnited States remains the world's largestoil consumer, by 2050 it is projected to move to third place, behind China and India.[3]: 1470 While nearly half of the world's newrenewable energy capacity is built in Asia,[3]: 1470 this is not yet sufficient in order to meet the goals of theParis Agreement. They imply that the renewables would account for 35% of total energy consumption in Asia by 2030.[3]: 1471
Climate change adaptation is already a reality for many Asian countries, with a wide range of strategies attempted across the continent.[3]: 1534 Important examples include the growing implementation ofclimate-smart agriculture in certain countries or the "sponge city" planning principles in China.[3]: 1534 While some countries have drawn up extensive frameworks such as the Bangladesh Delta Plan or Japan's Climate Adaptation Act,[3]: 1508 others still rely on localized actions that are not effectively scaled up.[3]: 1534
Historical emissions from Asia are lower than those from Europe and North America. However, China has been the single largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the 21st century, while India is the 3rd-largest,Russia is 4th, whileJapan andSouth Korea rank 5th and 7th.[7] Around 70% of India's energy comes fromfossil fuels, while this figure reaches 80-90% in China, Japan and the Republic of Korea.[3]: 1471 As a whole, Asia currently accounts for 36% of world's primaryenergy consumption, which is expected to increase to 48% by 2050. By 2040, it is also expected to account for 80% of the world'scoal and 26% of the world'snatural gas consumption.[3]: 1468 While theUnited States remains the world's largestoil consumer, by 2050 it is projected to move to third place, behind China and India.[3]: 1470
After 2040, Asia would likely account for over half of the world's electricity consumption, and around 40% will likely be generated from coal burning.[3]: 1470 Asia is expected to import more oil and gas in the future than it does now, and would likely account for 80% of the global energy market in 2050.[3]: 1470 In particular, there are 11 developing countries in Asia which have a large energy consumption yet also lackenergy security.[3]: 1470
Starting from the 20th century, there has been clear warming across the entire continent. The frequency of cold days and nights decreased, which had also lowered the need forheating.[3]: 1463 Yet, the demand forair conditioning had increased far more as the frequency of hot days and warm nights had also grown, which had also increased the strain onpower grids.[3]: 1460 Hot temperature extremes appear to have increased the most inCentral andWest Asia, whileheatwaves inEast andSouth Asia are becoming longer, more frequent and more severe.[3]: 1464
In 2016 and 2018, Asia has already experienced extreme heat that would have been statistically impossible without climate change.[3]: 1464 New Delhi broke an all-time record when it reached 48 °C (118 °F) in 2018.[12] North Asia has the coldest climate due to its proximity to theArctic, but it also experiences greater relative warming due to what is known as thearctic amplification.[3]: 1464 This has led topermafrost thaw, which acts as aclimate change feedback and also places large quantities of infrastructure at risk of collapse.[3]: 1500
All of these trends are expected to continue in the future. There will be greater frequency of extreme heatwaves across the continent and heat stress would become more persistent across South Asia. Under the mid-rangeclimate change scenario, parts of West and South Asia would reach "critical health thresholds" for heat stress during the 21st century, and this would also occur in parts of East Asia under the high-emission scenario.[3]: 1465 Growingurbanization in Asia would also subject more people to theurban heat island effect:[3]: 1465 for instance,Hyderabad will likely be the hottest city in the world at the end of the century, with an average annual temperature around 30 °C (86 °F).[3]: 1498 Yet, many rural people are agricultural workers, who are some of the most vulnerable to increasing heat.[3]: 1468 The demand for air conditioning would continue to increase and managing it would become more challenging for the energy infrastructures, which are often already prone toblackouts in many countries on the continent.[3]: 1470 In the Southeast Asia, heat-related deaths under a high-warming scenario could increase by 12.7% by 2100.[3]: 1508
Precipitation trends are more complex than temperature trends. While climate change is generally expected to increase precipitation due to greaterevaporation from theoceans, the large increase in anthropogenicsulfate aerosols during most of the 20th century (sometimes described asglobal dimming) has had an opposite impact, as sulfates causeclouds to retain water for longer before rainfall occurs.[14][15] Rainfall associated with theMonsoon of South Asia[3]: 1464 andEast Asian Monsoon had decreased by the end of the 20th century, and this is likely associated with aerosol pollution:[16] there is already evidence of monsoon recovery when the aerosol concentrations decline.[17] Because some clouds from South and East Asia go on to Central Asia, they could increase rainfall there with the same moisture they did not shed during the monsoon, and some evidence supports that.[18]
However, this effect isn't very strong, as the overall rainfall in West and Central Asia had decreased, whiledrought likelihood had increased. The frequency and intensity ofdust storms had increased in this region as well, although this is partly caused by poorland use practices.[3]: 1465 At the same time,heavy precipitation events (defined as 400 mm or more in a day) had increased in South, Southeast and East Asia during the 21st century.[3]: 1464 Over a third of the cities in Asia, with a combined population of around 932 million, are considered at high risk of flooding.[3]: 1532
Future warming is expected to substantially increase annual precipitation across most of the continent. Monsoon regions would experience more heavy and evenintense precipitation (defined as 50mm or more in an hour), making floods substantially more frequent.[3]: 1465 100-year extremes in vapor transport (directly related to extreme precipitation) would become 2.6 times more frequent under 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) of global warming, yet 3.9 and 7.5 times more frequent under 2 °C (3.6 °F) and 3 °C (5.4 °F).[13] While there has been no significant change intropical cyclone (TC) frequency in Asia since the 1950s,[3]: 1465 category 4-5 TCs are likely to become more frequent under high warming and generate more rainfall.[3]: 1466
On the contrary, drought frequency is expected to increase in the West and Central Asia.[3]: 1465 Even in the regions where precipitation increases, plants' water losses toevapotranspiration may increase even more, which could still increase the overall agricultural drought frequency.[20] Across the continent, drought conditions would on average increase by between 5% to 20% by 2100.[3]: 1459 Around 2050, populations living in theAmu Darya,Ganges andIndus may be faced with severe water scarcity due to both climate and socioeconomic reasons.[3]: 1486
Glaciers in the Hindu Kush region feed the water basin of over 220 million people.[3]: 1487 In theIndus River basin alone, they contribute to up to 60% of irrigation outside of the monsoon season.[21] These glaciers have already experienced melting in the 21st century, and it would continue in the future, as up to two-thirds of glacier ice may melt by 2100 under high warming.[3]: 1487 While glacier water supply would likely increase until 2050, it would be permanently diminished afterwards.[3]: 1486 Although the increases in monsoon strength may offset these losses, agriculture in the region would still become more reliant on it than ever before, whilehydropower generation would become less predictable and reliable.[22][19][23]
Between 1901 and 2018, average globalsea level rose by 15–25 cm (6–10 in), an average of 1–2 mm (0.039–0.079 in) per year.[24] This rate accelerated to 4.62 mm (0.182 in)/yr for the decade 2013–2022.[25] While the rate of sea level rise in Asia is usually similar to the global average, it has been around 10% faster in theIndo-Pacific region since the 1990s.[3] Future sea level rise on Japan'sHonshu Island would be up to 25 cm faster than the global average under RCP8.5, the intense climate change scenario.[3]
Asia has the largest population at risk from sea level. As of 2022, some 63 million people inEast andSouth Asia were already at risk from a100-year flood. This is largely due to inadequate coastal protection in many countries. This will get much worse in the future.Bangladesh,China,India,Indonesia,Japan,Pakistan, thePhilippines,Thailand andVietnam alone account for 70% of people exposed to sea level rise during the 21st century.[3][26] This is due to the dense population on the region's coasts. 2019 research indicated that globally, 150 million will be under the water line during high tide and 300 million will live in zones with flooding every year. By the year 2100, those numbers differ sharply depending on the emission scenario. In a low emission scenario, 140 million will be under water during high tide and 280 million will have flooding each year. In high emission scenario, the numbers reach up to 540 million and 640 million, respectively. Large parts ofHo Chi Minh City,Mumbai,Shanghai,Bangkok andBasra could be inundated.[27][28][29] These figures are, on average, triple that of past estimates, and the increases are even larger for certain Asian countries.
| Country | Old estimate | New estimate |
|---|---|---|
| China | 29 | 93 |
| Bangladesh | 5 | 42 |
| India | 5 | 36 |
| Vietnam | 9 | 31 |
| Indonesia | 5 | 23 |
| Thailand | 1 | 12 |
Modeling results predict that Asia will suffer direct economic damages of US$167.6 billion at 0.47 meters of sea level rise. This rises to US$272.3 billion at 1.12 meters and US$338.1 billion at 1.75 meters. There is an additional indirect impact of US$8.5, 24 or 15 billion from population displacement at those levels. China, India, theRepublic of Korea, Japan, Indonesia andRussia experience the largest economic losses.[3] Nations like Bangladesh, Vietnam and China with extensive rice production on the coast are already seeing adverse impacts from saltwater intrusion.[30][31] High-emission RCP8.5 scenario would see the loss of at least one third of Japanese beaches and 57–72% of Thai beaches.[3]
Sea level rise in Bangladesh may force the relocation of up to one third of power plants by 2030. A similar proportion would have to deal with increased salinity of their cooling water. Recent search indicates that by 2050 sea-level rise will displace 0.9-2.1 million people. This would require the creation of about 594,000 new jobs and 197,000 housing units in the areas receiving the displaced persons. It would also be necessary to supply an additional 783 billioncalories worth of food.[3] Another paper in 2021 estimated that sea-level rise would displace 816,000 people by 2050. This would increase to 1.3 million when indirect effects are taken into account.[32] Both studies assume that most displaced people would travel to the other areas of Bangladesh. They try to estimate population changes in different places.
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| District | Net flux (Davis et al., 2018) | Net flux (De Lellis et al., 2021) | Rank (Davis et al., 2018)[T2 1] | Rank (De Lellis et al., 2021) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dhaka | 207,373 | −34, 060 | 1 | 11 |
| Narayanganj | −95,003 | −126,694 | 2 | 1 |
| Shariatpur | −80,916 | −124,444 | 3 | 3 |
| Barisal | −80,669 | −64,252 | 4 | 6 |
| Munshiganj | −77,916 | −124,598 | 5 | 2 |
| Madaripur | 61,791 | −937 | 6 | 60 |
| Chandpur | −37,711 | −70,998 | 7 | 4 |
| Jhalakati | 35,546 | 9,198 | 8 | 36 |
| Satkhira | −32,287 | −19,603 | 9 | 23 |
| Khulna | −28,148 | −9,982 | 10 | 33 |
| Cox's Bazar | −25,680 | −16,366 | 11 | 24 |
| Bagherat | 24,860 | 12,263 | 12 | 28 |
By 2030, major Indian cities such asMumbai,Kolkata,Cuttack andKochi are expected to end up with much of their territory below the tide level.[33] In Mumbai alone, failing to adapt to this would result in damages of US$112–162 billion by 2050, which would nearly triple by 2070.[3] Thus, the authorities are carrying out adaptation projects like theMumbai Coastal Road, even at the likely expense of local coastal ecosystems and fishing livelihoods.[3] Out of the 20 coastal cities expected to see the highest flood losses by 2050, 13 are in Asia. Nine of these are the so-calledsinking cities, wheresubsidence (typically caused by unsustainablegroundwater extraction in the past) would compound sea level rise.[34] These areBangkok,Guangzhou,Ho Chi Minh City,Jakarta,Kolkata,Nagoya,Tianjin,Xiamen andZhanjiang.[3]
By 2050, Guangzhou would see 0.2 meters of sea level rise and estimated annual economic losses of US$254 million – the highest in the world. One estimate calculates that in the absence of adaptation, cumulative economic losses caused by sea level rise in Guangzhou under RCP8.5 would reach about US$331 billion by 2050, US$660 billion by 2070 and US$1.4 trillion by 2100. The impact of high-endice sheet instability would increase these figures to about US$420 billion, US$840 billion and US$1.8 trillion respectively.[3] InShanghai, coastal inundation amounts to about 0.03% of localGDP. But this would increase to 0.8% by 2100 even under the "moderate"RCP4.5 scenario in the absence of adaptation.[3] The city of Jakarta issinking so much (up to 28 cm (11 in) per year between 1982 and 2010 in some areas[35]) that in 2019, the government had committed to relocate thecapital of Indonesia to another city.[36]
Multiplebiomes in Asia have already experienced visible shifts in response to climate change. These include changes in growing season length,habitat losses (particularly of theamphibian species[3]: 1473 ) or greaterinvasive species frequency.[3]: 1476 Many animal species have been observed to move into warming areas to the north.[3]: 1473 In Siberia,tundra extent shrinks as it is gradually replaced by boreal forest (taiga).[3]: 1472 At the same time, wildfires have also become more severe in Siberia, although this is partly connected to increased pressure frommineral exploration and illegallogging.[3]: 1474 Greater warming has also generally made it easier for trees to move into the previously unsuitable mountain areas, and this trend is expected to continue in the future.[3]: 1472 This could also result in existing mountain ecosystems, such as the Korean fir forests, getting replaced by more temperate ones.[3]: 1475
Some freshwater fish species will lose parts of their range.[3]: 1477 Many marine and coastalecosystems at risk of irreversible loss after just of warming. Notable examples include coastalseagrass meadows, which are deteriorating at the rate of 7%/year, and themangrove forests, 42% of which are in Asia.[3]: 1480 By 2018, over 60% of Asia's past mangrove extent and 40% of coral reefs had already been lost.[3]: 1482 At the same tide, "golden tide" blooms ofSargassum horneri might become more frequent.[3]: 1481
In theSouth China Sea alone, there are nearly 600 coral species, and they have been severely impacted by climate change and other human activities.[3]: 1478 In general, the remaining coral reefs will experience irreversible losses soon after 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) of warming.[4][5] That Coral Triangle is considered one of the 12 "priority" ecosystems in Asia, and research shows that they could lose up to 26% of their species under 2 °C (3.6 °F), and up to 56% under 4.5 °C (8.1 °F) warming.[3]: 1476
.jpg)
| Region | 2 °C (3.6 °F) | 4.5 °C (8.1 °F) |
|---|---|---|
| Altai-Sayan | 18.6 | 37 |
| Amur | 14.2 | 35.6 |
| Borneo | 17.6 | 36.8 |
| Coral Triangle | 19.2 | 41.8 |
| EasternHimalayas | 12.2 | 29 |
| GreaterBlack Sea | 26.2 | 56 |
| Lake Baikal | 22.8 | 49.5 |
| Mekong River | 26.4 | 55.2 |
| New Guinea | 19.8 | 41.2 |
| Sumatra | 16.8 | 37 |
| Western Ghats | 18.8 | 41.67 |
| Yangtze River | 20 | 42.6 |
In 2019, Asia as a whole was estimated to have 400 million people living inextreme poverty (below 1.9$/day), and 1.2 billion below 3.2$/day.[3]: 1468 It also accounts for two-thirds of the world's agricultural production[3]: 1490 and nearly three-quarters of the fisheries and aquaculture output.[3]: 1491 In India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, around 56%, 43% and 50% of the population work in agriculture, respectively.[39][40] Even so, 11.4% of Asia's population (515 million people) were undernourished in 2017, which is the largest fraction in the world.[3]: 1508 While total food production to date had been increasing, climate risks to agriculture and food security are expected to accelerate after 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) is exceeded.[3]: 1490
These risks will be regionally uneven, as food security is expected to improve in some countries or even country sub-regions, while declining in others.[3]: 1494 For instance, coral reefs support 1.5 million fishers in theIndian Ocean and 3.35 million in the Southeast Asia, yet they are highly vulnerable to even low-emission climate change.[3]: 1479 Southeast Asia may lose around 30% of its aquaculture area and 10-20% of production by 2050-2070.[3]: 1491 Major agricultural pests such asColorado potato beetle andIxodes ricinus have been able to expand their range,[3]: 1473 and other expansions, such as those oflocusts and thegolden apple snail are expected in the future.[3]: 1475 Livestock production in the South Asia region and the country ofMongolia is highly vulnerable to climate change.[3]: 1493 Global food price spikes and market volatility threaten to affect sociopolitical stability.[3]: 1494
In the absence of intervention, malaria incidence could nearly double by 2050 in northern China, and over 100 million people are likely to become exposed to malaria in the near future.Infectious diarrhoea mortality anddengue fever incidence in South Asia is likely to increase as well.[3]: 1508 Under the high-emission scenario, 40 million people in South Asia (nearly 2% of the population) may be driven to internal migration by 2050 due to climate change.[3]: 1469 Some research suggests that South Asia would lose 2% of itsGDP to climate change by 2050, while these losses would approach 9% by the end of the century under the most intense climate change scenario.[3]: 1468
In the 2017 edition ofGermanwatch'sClimate Risk Index, Bangladesh and Pakistan ranked sixth and seventh respectively as the countries most affected by climate change in the period from 1996 to 2015, while India ranked fourth among the list of countries most affected by climate change in 2015.[42] India is estimated to have the world's highestsocial cost of carbon - meaning that it experiences the greatest impact fromgreenhouse gas emissions.[43] Other estimates describe Bangladesh as the country most likely to be the worst-affected.[44][45][46]
Nearly half of the world's newrenewable energy capacity is built in Asia.[3]: 1470 India is known to have a large potential forsolar power generation which is currently largely unfulfilled.[3]: 1472 Nuclear power is also expected to become increasingly prominent in Asia. In particular, nuclear power generation in China will likely be equivalent to that of theOECD countries in 2040. Significant growth is also expected in India and Russia.[3]: 1470
Asian countries have also undertaken various mitigation commitments. For instance, India has, as of 2019, promised to cut its emissions intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) by 33-35% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.[47] However, these efforts are not currently sufficient in order to reach the goals of theParis Agreement. The most likely way to fulfil them on the continental scale would be to have the renewables account for 35% of total energy consumption in Asia by 2030.[3]: 1471
Across Asia, countries and stakeholders are already undertaking a range of adaptation actions. For instance, theNational Diet of Japan had passed an official Climate Change Adaptation Act in 2018,[3]: 1508 while Bangladesh has drawn up an extensive Bangladesh Delta Plan which covers all future development in the context of climate adaptation and would be funded by 2.5% of the annual GDP.[3]: 1513 Regional forums such as the Asia-Pacific Climate Change Adaption Information Platform (AP-PLAT) also exist.[48] In China, the so-calledsponge cities are designed to increase the area ofgreen spaces andpermeable pavings to help deal withflash floods from precipitation extremes.[3]: 1504
At the same time, many adaptation measures are still limited to preparatory steps.[3]: 1459 In India, city, district and state governments have been creating Heat Action Plans, but as of 2023, most of them remain unfunded.[49] The Bangladesh Delta Plan was also reported to be falling short of most of its initial targets as of 2020.[50] Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – Brunei,Cambodia,Indonesia, Laos,Malaysia,Myanmar,the Philippines,Singapore,Thailand, andVietnam – are among the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change in the world, but their climate mitigation efforts have been described as not commensurate with the climate risks faced.[51]
Numerous changes have taken place in the agriculture sector in an effort to adapt to climate change - ranging from interventions likeirrigation to a set of practices known asclimate-smart agriculture.[3]: 1495 However, other interventions such as an increase in agriculturalinsurance coverage are also necessary.[3]: 1497 Natural environment can be helped to adapt to climate change by increasing the extent ofprotected areas and providinghabitat corridors to facilitate the dispersal of vulnerable species.[3]: 1478 Mangrove restoration programs exist and tend to be effective.[3]: 1483
Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
"The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can.The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario.Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.
Press Release Number: 21042023
Climate change by country | |
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