This article is about the physical causes of current climate change. For the study of how climate change affects specific extreme events, seeExtreme event attribution.
Brown bars indicate drivers that increase global warming, and blue bars indicate those that decrease global warming. Futureglobal warming potential for long lived drivers like carbon dioxide emissions is not represented.
The scientific community has been investigating thecauses of current climate change for decades. After thousands of studies, thescientific consensus is that it is "unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land since pre-industrial times."[1]: 3 This consensus is supported by around 200 scientific organizations worldwide.[2] The scientific principle underlying currentclimate change is thegreenhouse effect, which provides thatgreenhouse gases pass sunlight that heats the earth, but trap some of the resulting heat that radiates from the planet's surface. Large amounts of greenhouse gases such ascarbon dioxide andmethane have been released into the atmosphere through burning offossil fuels since the industrial revolution. Indirect emissions fromland use change, emissions of other greenhouse gases such asnitrous oxide, and increased concentrations of water vapor in the atmosphere, also contribute to climate change.[1]
Observed temperature from NASA[3] vs the 1850–1900 average used by the IPCC as a pre-industrial baseline.[4] The primary driver for increased global temperatures in the industrial era is human activity, with natural forces adding variability.[5]
The warming from the greenhouse effect has alogarithmic relationship with the concentration of greenhouse gases. This means that every additional fraction of CO2 and the other greenhouse gasesin the atmosphere has a slightly smaller warming effect than the fractions before it as thetotal concentration increases. However, only around half of CO2 emissions continually reside in the atmosphere in the first place, as the other half is quickly absorbed bycarbon sinks in the land and oceans.[6]: 450 Further, the warming per unit of greenhouse gases is also affected byfeedbacks, such as the changes inwater vapor concentrations or Earth'salbedo (reflectivity).[7]: 2233
As the warming from CO2 increases, carbon sinks absorb a smaller fraction of total emissions, while the "fast"climate change feedbacks amplify greenhouse gas warming. Thus, the effects counteract one another, and the warming from each unit of CO2 emitted by humans increases temperature in linear proportion to the total amount of emissions.[8]: 746 [citation needed] Further, some fraction of the greenhouse warming has been "masked" by the human-caused emissions ofsulfur dioxide, which forms aerosols that have a cooling effect. However, this masking has been receding in the recent years, due to measures to combatacid rain andair pollution caused by sulfates.[9][10]
Factors affecting Earth's climate
A diagram which shows where the extra heat retained on Earth due to the energy imbalance is going.
Aforcing is something that is imposed externally on theclimate system. External forcings include natural phenomena such as volcanic eruptions and variations in the sun's output.[11] Human activities can also impose forcings, for example, through changing the composition ofEarth's atmosphere.Radiative forcing is a measure of how various factors alter theenergy balance of planet Earth.[12] A positive radiative forcing will lead towards a warming of the surface and, over time, the climate system. Between the start of theIndustrial Revolution in 1750, and the year 2005, the increase in the atmospheric concentration ofcarbon dioxide (chemical formula: CO2) led to a positive radiative forcing, averaged over the Earth'ssurface area, of about 1.66 watts per square metre (abbreviated W m−2).[13]
Climate feedbacks can either amplify or dampen the response of the climate to a given forcing.[14]: 7 There are many feedback mechanisms in the climate system that can either amplify (apositive feedback) or diminish (anegative feedback) the effects of a change in climate forcing.
The climate system varies in response to changes in external forcings.[15] The climate system also hasinternal variability both in the presence and absence of external forcings. This internal variability is a result of complex interactions between components within the climate system, such as thecoupling between the atmosphere and ocean.[16] An example of internal variability is theEl Niño–Southern Oscillation.
Human-caused influences
Energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and Earth's surface. Rising greenhouse gas levels are contributing to anenergy imbalance.
Factors affecting Earth's climate can be broken down intoforcings,feedbacks andinternal variations.[14]: 7 Four main lines of evidence support the dominant role of human activities in recent climate change:[17]
Aphysical understanding of theclimate system: greenhouse gas concentrations have increased and their warming properties are well-established.
There are historical estimates of past climate changes suggest that the recent changes inglobal surface temperature are unusual.
Advancedclimate models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless human greenhouse gas emissions are included.
Observations of natural forces, such assolar and volcanic activity, show that solar activity cannot explain the observed warming. For example, an increase in solar activity would have warmed the entire atmosphere, yet only the lower atmosphere has warmed.[18]
Observations from space show that Earth'senergy imbalance—a measure of how much more energy Earth absorbs than it radiates into space—reached values in 2023 that were twice that of the best estimate from theIPCC.[19]
Greenhouse gases
Warming influence of atmospheric greenhouse gases has nearly doubled since 1979, with carbon dioxide and methane being the dominant drivers.[20]
Greenhouse gases are transparent tosunlight, and thus allow it to pass through the atmosphere to heat the Earth's surface. The Earthradiates it as heat, and greenhouse gases absorb a portion of it. This absorption slows the rate at which heat escapes into space, trapping heat near the Earth's surface and warming it over time.[21] Whilewater vapour and clouds are the biggest contributors to the greenhouse effect, they primarily change as a function of temperature. Therefore, they are considered to befeedbacks that changeclimate sensitivity. On the other hand, gases such as CO2,tropospheric ozone,[22]CFCs andnitrous oxide are added or removed independently from temperature. Hence, they are considered to beexternal forcings that change global temperatures.[23][24]: 742
CO2 concentrations over the last 800,000 years as measured from ice cores[25][26][27][28] (blue/green) and directly[29] (black)
Human activity since theIndustrial Revolution (about 1750), mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels (coal,oil, andnatural gas), has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, resulting in aradiative imbalance. Over the past 150 years human activities have released increasing quantities of greenhouse gases into theatmosphere. By 2019, theconcentrations of CO2 and methane had increased by about 48% and 160%, respectively, since 1750.[30] These CO2 levels are higher than they have been at any time during the last 2 million years.Concentrations of methane are far higher than they were over the last 800,000 years.[31]
This has led to increases in mean global temperature, orglobal warming. The likely range of human-induced surface-level air warming by 2010–2019 compared to levels in 1850–1900 is 0.8 °C to 1.3 °C, with a best estimate of 1.07 °C. This is close to the observed overall warming during that time of 0.9 °C to 1.2 °C. Temperature changes during that time were likely only ±0.1 °C due to natural forcings and ±0.2 °C due to variability in the climate.[32]: 3, 443
Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 wereequivalent to 59 billion tonnes of CO2. Of these emissions, 75% was CO2, 18% wasmethane, 4% was nitrous oxide, and 2% wasfluorinated gases.[33]: 7
TheGlobal Carbon Project shows how additions to CO2 since 1880 have been caused by different sources ramping up one after another.TheKeeling Curve shows the long-term increase of atmosphericcarbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations since 1958.
CO2 is absorbed and emitted naturally as part of thecarbon cycle, through animal and plantrespiration,volcanic eruptions, and ocean-atmosphere exchange.[36] Human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use (see below), release large amounts of carbon to the atmosphere, causing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere to rise.[36][37]
The high-accuracy measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentration, initiated byCharles David Keeling in 1958, constitute the master time series documenting the changing composition of theatmosphere.[38] These data, known as theKeeling Curve, have iconic status in climate change science as evidence of the effect of human activities on the chemical composition of the global atmosphere.[38]
Keeling's initial 1958 measurements showed 313 parts per million by volume (ppm). Atmospheric CO2 concentrations, commonly written "ppm", are measured in parts-per-million by volume (ppmv). In May 2019, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere reached 415 ppm. The last time when it reached this level was 2.6–5.3 million years ago. Without human intervention, it would be 280 ppm.[39]
In November, 2025Global Carbon Budget predicted CO2 emissions from burning coal, oil and gas would be a record 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, up 1.1 percent from the prior year.[41]
Air pollution has substantially increased the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere when compared to the preindustrial background levels. Different types of particles have different effects, but overall, cooling from aerosols formed bysulfur dioxide emissions has the overwhelming impact. However, the complexity of aerosol interactions in atmospheric layers makes the exact strength of cooling very difficult to estimate.[47]
Air pollution, in the form ofaerosols, affects the climate on a large scale.[48][49] Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation. From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount ofsunlight reaching the Earth's surface was observed. This phenomenon is popularly known asglobal dimming,[50] and is primarily attributed tosulfate aerosols produced by the combustion of fossil fuels with heavysulfur concentrations likecoal andbunker fuel.[9] Smaller contributions come fromblack carbon, organic carbon from combustion of fossil fuels and biofuels, and from anthropogenic dust.[51][52][53][54][55] Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990 due to pollution controls, meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much.[56][9]
Aerosols also have indirect effects on theEarth's energy budget. Sulfate aerosols act ascloud condensation nuclei and lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets.[57] They also reduce thegrowth of raindrops, which makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight.[58] Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty inradiative forcing.[59]
While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight,black carbon insoot that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level rise.[60] Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050.[61]
The rate of global tree cover loss has approximately doubled since 2001, to an annual loss approaching an area the size of Italy.[62]
According toFood and Agriculture Organization, around 30% of Earth's land area is largely unusable for humans (glaciers,deserts, etc.), 26% isforests, 10% isshrubland and 34% isagricultural land.[63]Deforestation is the mainland use change contributor to global warming,[64] Between 1750 and 2007, about one-third of anthropogenicCO2 emissions were from changes inland use - primarily from the decline in forest area and the growth in agricultural land.[65] primarilydeforestation.[66] as the destroyed trees release CO2, and are not replaced by new trees, removing thatcarbon sink.[67] Between 2001 and 2018, 27% of deforestation was from permanent clearing to enableagricultural expansion for crops and livestock. Another 24% has been lost to temporary clearing under theshifting cultivation agricultural systems. 26% was due tologging for wood and derived products, andwildfires have accounted for the remaining 23%.[68] Some forests have not been fully cleared, but were already degraded by these impacts. Restoring these forests also recovers their potential as a carbon sink.[69]
Cumulative land-use change contributions to CO2 emissions, by region.[33]: Figure SPM.2b
Local vegetation cover impacts how much of the sunlight gets reflected back into space (albedo), and how muchheat is lost by evaporation. For instance, the change from a darkforest to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. Deforestation can also modify the release of chemical compounds that influence clouds, and by changing wind patterns.[70] In tropic and temperate areas the net effect is to produce significant warming, and forest restoration can make local temperatures cooler.[69] At latitudes closer to the poles, there is a cooling effect as forest is replaced by snow-covered (and more reflective) plains.[70] Globally, these increases in surface albedo have been the dominant direct influence on temperature from land use change. Thus, land use change to date is estimated to have a slight cooling effect.[71]
Meat from cattle and sheep have the highest emissions intensity of any agricultural commodity.
More than 18% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to livestock and livestock-related activities such as deforestation and increasingly fuel-intensive farming practices.[72] Specific attributions to the livestock sector include:
Human fingerprints for global warming (summary of observational evidence that human carbon dioxide emissions are causing the climate to warm).[73]Top panel: Observed global average temperature change (1870— ).Bottom panel: Data from theFourth National Climate Assessment[74] is merged for display on the same scale to emphasize relative strengths of forces affecting temperature change. Human-caused forces have increasingly dominated.
To determine the human contribution to climate change, unique "fingerprints" for all potential causes are developed and compared with both observed patterns and known internalclimate variability.[75][76]: 875–876 For example, solar forcing—whose fingerprint involves warming the entire atmosphere—is ruled out because only the lower atmosphere has warmed.[77]: 20 Atmospheric aerosols produce a smaller, cooling effect. Other drivers, such as changes inalbedo, are less impactful.[78]: 7
Fingerprint studies exploit these unique signatures, and allow detailed comparisons of modelled and observed climate change patterns. Scientists rely on such studies to attribute observed changes in climate to a particular cause or set of causes. In the real world, the climate changes that have occurred since the start of theIndustrial Revolution are due to a complex mixture of human and natural causes. The importance of each individual influence in this mixture changes over time. Therefore, climate models are used to study how individual factors affect climate. For example, a single factor (like greenhouse gases) or a set of factors can be varied, and the response of the modelled climate system to these individual or combined changes can thus be studied.[79]
These projections have been confirmed by observations (shown above).[80] For example, when climate model simulations of the last century include all of the major influences on climate, both human-induced and natural, they can reproduce many important features of observed climate change patterns. When human influences are removed from the model experiments, results suggest that the surface of the Earth would actually have cooled slightly over the last 50 years. The clear message from fingerprint studies is that the observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.[79]
Atmospheric fingerprints
Another fingerprint of human effects on climate has been identified by looking at a slice through the layers of the atmosphere, and studying the pattern of temperature changes from the surface up through the stratosphere (see the section onsolar activity). The earliest fingerprint work focused on changes in surface and atmospheric temperature. Scientists then applied fingerprint methods to a whole range of climate variables, identifying human-caused climate signals in the heat content of the oceans, the height of thetropopause (the boundary between thetroposphere andstratosphere, which has shifted upward by hundreds of feet in recent decades), the geographical patterns of precipitation, drought, surface pressure, and therunoff from majorriver basins.[81]
Studies published after the appearance of theIPCC Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 have also found human fingerprints in the increased levels of atmosphericmoisture (both close to the surface and over the full extent of the atmosphere), in the decline ofArctic sea ice extent, and in the patterns of changes inArctic andAntarctic surface temperatures.[81]
Ripple effects
Carbon sinks
CO2 sources and sinks since 1880. While there is little debate that excess carbon dioxide in the industrial era has mostly come from burning fossil fuels, the future strength of land and ocean carbon sinks is an area of study.[82]
The Earth's surface absorbs CO2 as part of thecarbon cycle. Despite the contribution of deforestation to greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth's land surface, particularly its forests, remain a significantcarbon sink for CO2. Land-surface sink processes, such ascarbon fixation in the soil and photosynthesis, remove about 29% of annual global CO2 emissions.[83] The ocean also serves as a significant carbon sink via a two-step process. First, CO2 dissolves in the surface water. Afterwards, the ocean'soverturning circulation distributes it deep into the ocean's interior, where it accumulates over time as part of thecarbon cycle. Over the last two decades, the world's oceans have absorbed 20 to 30% of emitted CO2.[6]: 450 Thus, around half of human-caused CO2 emissions have been absorbed by land plants and by the oceans.[84]
This fraction of absorbed emissions is not static. If future CO2 emissions decrease, the Earth will be able to absorb up to around 70%. If they increase substantially, it'll still absorb more carbon than now, but the overall fraction will decrease to below 40%.[85] This is because climate change increases droughts and heat waves that eventually inhibit plant growth on land, and soils will release more carbon from dead plantswhen they are warmer.[86][87] The rate at which oceans absorb atmospheric carbon will be lowered as they become more acidic and experience changes inthermohaline circulation andphytoplankton distribution.[88][89][90]
Sea ice reflects 50% to 70% of incoming sunlight, while the ocean, being darker, reflects only 6%. As an area of sea ice melts and exposes more ocean, more heat is absorbed by the ocean, raising temperatures that melt still more ice. This is a positive feedbackprocess.[91]
Uncertainty over feedbacks, particularly cloud cover,[97] is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions.[98] As air warms,it can hold more moisture. Water vapour, as a potent greenhouse gas, holds heat in the atmosphere.[93] If cloud cover increases, more sunlight will be reflected back into space, cooling the planet. If clouds become higher and thinner, they act as an insulator, reflecting heat from below back downwards and warming the planet.[99]
Another major feedback is the reduction of snow cover and sea ice in the Arctic, which reduces the reflectivity of the Earth's surface.[100]More of the Sun's energy is now absorbed in these regions, contributing toamplification of Arctic temperature changes.[101] Arctic amplification is also thawingpermafrost, which releases methane and CO2 into the atmosphere.[102] Climate change can also cause methane releases fromwetlands, marine systems, and freshwater systems.[103] Overall, climate feedbacks are expected to become increasingly positive.[104]
Already in 2001, theIPCC Third Assessment Report had found that, "The combined change in radiative forcing of the two major natural factors (solar variation and volcanic aerosols) is estimated to be negative for the past two, and possibly the past four, decades."[107]Solar irradiance has been measured directly bysatellites,[108] and indirect measurements are available from the early 1600s onwards.[59] Yet, since 1880, there has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth, in contrast to the warming of the lower atmosphere (thetroposphere).[109] Similarly, volcanic activity has the single largest natural impact (forcing) on temperature, yet it is equivalent to less than 1% of current human-caused CO2 emissions.[110] Volcanic activity as a whole has had negligible impacts on global temperature trends since the Industrial Revolution.[111]
Between 1750 and 2007, solar radiation may have at most increased by 0.12 W/m2, compared to 1.6 W/m2 for the net anthropogenic forcing.[112]: 3 Consequently, the observed rapid rise in global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed tosolar variability."[113] Further, the upper atmosphere (thestratosphere) would also be warming if the Sun was sending more energy to Earth, but instead, it has been cooling.[114] This is consistent with greenhouse gases preventing heat from leaving the Earth's atmosphere.[115]
Explosive volcanic eruptions can release gases, dust and ash that partially block sunlight and reduce temperatures, or they can send water vapor into the atmosphere, which adds to greenhouse gases and increases temperatures.[116] Because both water vapor and volcanic material have low persistence in the atmosphere, even the largest eruptions only have an effect for several years.[111]
^abBindoff, N.L., W.W.L. Cheung, J.G. Kairo, J. Arístegui, V.A. Guinder, R. Hallberg, N. Hilmi, N. Jiao, M.S. Karim, L. Levin, S. O'Donoghue, S.R. Purca Cuicapusa, B. Rinkevich, T. Suga, A. Tagliabue, and P. Williamson, 2019:Chapter 5: Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems, and Dependent Communities. In:IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 447–587. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.007.
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^Mauritsen, Thorsten; Tsushima, Yoko; Meyssignac, Benoit; Loeb, Normal G.; et al. (10 May 2025). "Earth's Energy Imbalance More Than Doubled in Recent Decades".AGU Advances.6 (3) e2024AV001636. American Geophysical Union.doi:10.1029/2024AV001636.
^Olivier & Peters 2019, p. 17;Our World in Data, 18 September 2020;EPA 2020: Greenhouse gas emissions from industry primarily come from burning fossil fuels for energy, as well as greenhouse gas emissions from certain chemical reactions necessary to produce goods from raw materials;"Redox, extraction of iron and transition metals".Hot air (oxygen) reacts with the coke (carbon) to produce carbon dioxide and heat energy to heat up the furnace. Removing impurities: The calcium carbonate in the limestone thermally decomposes to form calcium oxide. calcium carbonate → calcium oxide + carbon dioxide;Kvande 2014: Carbon dioxide gas is formed at the anode, as the carbon anode is consumed upon reaction of carbon with the oxygen ions from the alumina (Al2O3). Formation of carbon dioxide is unavoidable as long as carbon anodes are used, and it is of great concern because CO2 is a greenhouse gas
^EPA 2019: Agricultural activities, such as fertilizer use, are the primary source of N2O emissions;Davidson 2009: 2.0% of manure nitrogen and 2.5% of fertilizer nitrogen was converted to nitrous oxide between 1860 and 2005; these percentage contributions explain the entire pattern of increasing nitrous oxide concentrations over this period
^abGarrett, L.; Lévite, H.; Besacier, C.; Alekseeva, N.; Duchelle, M. (2022).The key role of forest and landscape restoration in climate action. Rome: FAO.doi:10.4060/cc2510en.ISBN978-92-5-137044-5.
^IPCC SRCCL Ch2 2019, p. 172: "The global biophysical cooling alone has been estimated by a larger range of climate models and is −0.10 ± 0.14 °C; it ranges from −0.57 °C to +0.06°C ... This cooling is essentially dominated by increases in surface albedo: historical land cover changes have generally led to a dominant brightening of land"
^abSteinfeld, Henning; Gerber, Pierre; Wassenaar, Tom; Castel, Vincent; Rosales, Mauricio; de Haan, Cees (2006).Livestock's Long Shadow(PDF). Food and Agricultural Organization of the U.N.ISBN92-5-105571-8. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on 25 June 2008.
^Knutson, T., 2017:Detection and attribution methodologies overviewArchived 6 July 2024 at theWayback Machine. In:Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 443-451, doi: 10.7930/J0319T2J
^Climate.gov, 23 June 2022:"Carbon cycle experts estimate that natural "sinks"—processes that remove carbon from the atmosphere—on land and in the ocean absorbed the equivalent of about half of the carbon dioxide we emitted each year in the 2011–2020 decade."
^Melillo et al. 2017: Our first-order estimate of a warming-induced loss of 190 Pg of soil carbon over the 21st century is equivalent to the past two decades of carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning.
^Liu, Y.; Moore, J. K.; Primeau, F.; Wang, W. L. (22 December 2022). "Reduced CO2 uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation".Nature Climate Change.13:83–90.doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01555-7.OSTI2242376.S2CID255028552.
^"The study of Earth as an integrated system". Vitals Signs of the Planet. Earth Science Communications Team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory / California Institute of Technology. 2013.Archived from the original on 26 February 2019.
^IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary 2021, p. 58: The net effect of changes in clouds in response to global warming is to amplify human-induced warming, that is, the net cloud feedback is positive (high confidence)
^Wolff et al. 2015: "the nature and magnitude of these feedbacks are the principal cause of uncertainty in the response of Earth's climate (over multi-decadal and longer periods) to a particular emissions scenario or greenhouse gas concentration pathway."
^IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary 2021, p. 58: Feedback processes are expected to become more positive overall (more amplifying of global surface temperature changes) on multi-decadal time scales as the spatial pattern of surface warming evolves and global surface temperature increases.
^Greicius, Tony (2 August 2022)."Tonga eruption blasted unprecedented amount of water into stratosphere".NASA Global Climate Change. Retrieved18 January 2024.Massive volcanic eruptions like Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo typically cool Earth's surface by ejecting gases, dust, and ash that reflect sunlight back into space. In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn't inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects.
Documentary Sea Blind (Dutch Television) (in Dutch). RIVM: Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment. 11 October 2016.Archived from the original on 17 August 2018. Retrieved26 February 2019.
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