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Belarus and weapons of mass destruction

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Since 2023,Russia has claimed to havestationednuclear weapons in Belarus. As of 2025[update], there is no conclusive open-source evidence that Russian nuclear warheads and gravity bombs themselves are being stored in Belarus. If they are, the most likely location is a Cold War-era depot nearAsipovichy. Russia has also provided nuclear delivery systems and training to Belarusian forces in the form ofIskander-Mshort-range ballistic missiles and modification and training for Sukhoi Su-25 aircraft and crews to employ nuclear gravity bombs.[1]

Belarus joined theTreaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear-weapons-state in 1994.[2]

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Nuclear weapons

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Soviet period

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TheSoviet Uniondeveloped nuclear weapons in 1949. According to American think tanks, Belarus' main nuclear weapons sites at the end of theCold War were twoRT-2PM Topol bases inLida andMazyr.[3]

Post-Soviet period

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In the aftermath of thedissolution of the Soviet Union, the safety of nuclear weapons and related technology in thepost-Soviet states became an international concern, including for theUnited States. In 1992, together with Kazakhstan and Ukraine, Belarus signed theLisbon Protocol, binding them to the 1991 US-SovietSTART arms control agreement, as well as accession to theTreaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. It acceded in 1993. Belarus was the first post-Soviet state to voluntarily renounce maintaining its ex-Soviet nuclear arsenal without any preconditions or reservations. The 1994Budapest Memorandum gave Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan security guarantees in exchange for their denuclearization. The withdrawal of nuclear weapons from the territory of the country was fully completed in November 1996, assisted by the USNunn–Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction.[2]

Russian nuclear weapons sharing

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See also:Nuclear sharing § Russian sharing with Belarus, andRussian military presence in Belarus
The RussianIskander-M nuclear-capableshort-range ballistic missile was deployed to Belarus in 2022.
ABelarusian Air ForceSukhoi Su-25. It is believed that since 2023 some Su-25s are modified and crews trained for deploying Russian tactical nuclear weapons.

Technical details

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At a meeting on 25 June 2022, Russian PresidentVladimir Putin and President of BelarusAlexander Lukashenko agreed the deployment of Russian short-range nuclear-capable missiles.[4] Lukashenko has described the weapons as "non-strategic".[2] Russia supplied Belarus with nuclear-capableIskander-M missile systems in 2023,[5] with President Putin announcing the first delivery of warheads occurring as of 16 June 2023 in a speech at the St. Petersburg International Forum.[6] These missile warheads are believed to have avariable yield between 5 and 50 kilotons. Additionally, Russia has completed modifications necessary for BelarusianSu-25 bombers to carry nuclear air-dropped bombs and the pilots have received training.[7] The yield of these bombs is not believed to exceed 20 kilotons.[2] Belarus has reported full operation of the nuclear-capable Iskanders and Su-25s, and exercised their use with training nuclear warheads in May 2024.[8]

As of 2025[update], there is no conclusive open-source evidence that Russian nuclear warheads and gravity bombs themselves are being stored in Belarus, although the most likely location if so is a Cold War-era depot nearAsipovichy. On 10 December 2024, Lukashenko stated Belarus was hosting "dozens" of Russian warheads. Putin has also stated that itsOreshnikintermediate-range ballistic missile could be deployed to Belarus in the second half of 2025, and that Belarus would play a role in nuclear targeting.[1]

Despite Lukashenko's statement on weapon usage "without hesitation in case of aggression against Belarus", which could indicate the transfer of operational control to Belarus, Putin emphasized Russian control was maintained, andGeneral Secretary of the CISSergey Lebedev described a "double nuclear button" for weapon usage.[2]

Political events

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On 27 February 2022, shortly after the2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belarusiansvoted in a constitutional referendum with political and military reforms, including to repeal the post-Soviet constitutional prohibition on basing of nuclear weapons. The reforms also removed the country'sneutral status and allowed permanent basing for theRussian Armed Forces.[9] The referendum was criticized by the EU, UK, US, Canada, and other countries in the context of thecensorship andhuman rights violations against theBelarusian opposition.[10][11][12][13][14]

Russia's stationing of nuclear weapons has been condemned by Belarusian opposition leaderSviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who stated that the deployment "grossly contradicts the will of the Belarusian people," and Ukrainian presidentVolodymyr Zelenskyy, who referred to it as a "step towards internal destabilisation". TheAtlantic Council think tank has described the stationing of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus as demonstrating the status of Belarus as apuppet state.[15]

Among the independent commentators on the stationing of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus is Belarusian chemist and science journalistSiarhei Besarab. Following the announcement of plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons, Besarab published analytical materials discussing potential storage sites and the associated risks, contributing to the public discussion about nuclear and environmental safety in Belarus.[16][17][18] His activities in this area became one of the reasons for increased pressure from the authorities, leading to his forced emigration in 2023.[citation needed]

Chemical weapons

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This sectionneeds expansion. You can help byadding to it.(October 2025)

Belarus signed theChemical Weapons Convention in 1993 and ratified it in 1996.[19]. It was a member republic of the Soviet Union during theSoviet chemical weapons program.

Biological weapons

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This sectionneeds expansion. You can help byadding to it.(October 2025)

Belarus was a member republic of the Soviet Union when that state signed theBiological Weapons Convention in 1972 and ratified it in 1975.[20]. Despite this, theSoviet biological weapons program spanned almost the entire duration of the Soviet Union's existence, including into the 1990s.

References

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  1. ^abKristensen, Hans M.; Korda, Matt; Johns, Eliana; Knight, Mackenzie (2025-05-04)."Russian nuclear weapons, 2025".Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.81 (3):208–237.Bibcode:2025BuAtS..81c.208K.doi:10.1080/00963402.2025.2494386.ISSN 0096-3402. Retrieved2025-07-24.
  2. ^abcdeKarach, Olga (2018-08-01)."Nuclear weapons in Belarus: What we Know".ICAN. Retrieved2025-07-24.
  3. ^Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Monterrey Institute for International Studies (1998)."Nuclear Successor States of the Soviet Union: Status Report on Nuclear Weapons, Fissile Material, and Export Controls"(PDF).
  4. ^Nikolai N. Sokov (1 July 2022)."Russia-Belarus nuclear sharing would mirror NATO's—and worsen Europe's security".Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Retrieved26 August 2022.
  5. ^"Belarus MOD announces control of Iskander Missiles".Belarus MOD. Retrieved29 April 2025.
  6. ^Putin, Vladimir (16 June 2023)."Transcript: Plenary session of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, 16 June 2023".Website of the President of Russia. Retrieved29 April 2025.
  7. ^"Russia promises Belarus Iskander-M nuclear-capable missiles". BBC. 26 June 2022.
  8. ^"Belarus conducts tactical nuclear inspection together with Russia".Swiss Info. 7 May 2024. Retrieved29 April 2025.
  9. ^"Belarus approves hosting nuclear weapons, Russian forces permanently". France 24. 28 February 2022. Retrieved26 August 2022.
  10. ^Samuel Benson (2022-03-15)."U.S. sanctions Belarus president, more Russian officials". Politico. Retrieved2022-04-01.
  11. ^"Canada condemns fraudulent constitutional referendum in Belarus". Government of Canada. 2022-02-28. Retrieved2022-04-01.
  12. ^Ahmet Gurhan Kartal (2022-02-28)."Belarus constitutional referendum fails to meet standards, UK says". AA. Retrieved2022-03-31.
  13. ^"Belarus: Statement by the High Representative/Vice-President Josep Borrell on the constitutional referendum". EU External Action. 2022-02-28. Retrieved2022-03-31.
  14. ^"Statement on Belarus Referendum". OSCE US Mission. 2022-01-27. Retrieved2022-04-01.
  15. ^Liubakova, Hanna (10 April 2023)."Russian nukes in Belarus: Putin's creeping annexation continues".Atlantic Council.Archived from the original on 17 April 2023. Retrieved26 April 2023.
  16. ^"Дзе размесцяць расійскую ядзерную зброю, выбух якой можа знішчыць цэлы горад?".Наша Ніва (in Belarusian). 2023-05-26. Retrieved2025-06-26.
  17. ^РАЦЫЯ, РАДЫЁ."Сяргей Бесараб: Мы зараз вяртаемся ў 1996 год, калі Беларусь пазбаўлялася ядзернай зброі - БЕЛАРУСКАЕ РАДЫЁ РАЦЫЯ".www.racyja.com (in Polish). Archived fromthe original on 2023-03-31. Retrieved2025-06-26.
  18. ^РАЦЫЯ, РАДЫЁ."Сяргей Бесараб: Лагер пад Асіповічамі – хутчэй для ахоўнікаў ядзернай зброі, чым для ПВК «Вагнер» - БЕЛАРУСКАЕ РАДЫЁ РАЦЫЯ".www.racyja.com (in Polish). Archived fromthe original on 2023-07-04. Retrieved2025-06-26.
  19. ^"Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction". United Nations Treaty Collection. 2018-01-03. Retrieved2018-01-03.
  20. ^"Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction". 2018-01-03.
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