Anthony Downs | |
|---|---|
| Born | (1930-11-21)November 21, 1930 |
| Died | October 2, 2021(2021-10-02) (aged 90) Bethesda, Maryland, U.S. |
| Academic background | |
| Alma mater | Carleton College (BA) Stanford University (MA,PhD) |
| Influences | Joseph Schumpeter Kenneth J. Arrow |
| Academic work | |
| Discipline | Public economics Political sciences |
| School or tradition | Public Choice school |
| Institutions | Brookings Institution |
James Anthony Downs (November 21, 1930 – October 2, 2021) was an American economist specializing inpublic policy andpublic administration. His research focuses includedpolitical choice theory,rent control,affordable housing, andtransportation economics. He wrote a number of books including,An Economic Theory of Democracy (1957) andInside Bureaucracy (1967), which have been major influences on thepublic choice school ofpolitical economy. InDowns's Law of Peak-Hour Traffic Congestion (1962), he predicted that expanding expressways could not reduce traffic congestion, since demand would increase as well, and that reducing speeds increases capacity.
He served as a senior fellow at theBrookings Institution inWashington, D.C., member of faculty at theUniversity of Chicago and a visiting fellow at thePublic Policy Institute of California inSan Francisco. Downs was also an elected fellow of theNational Academy of Public Administration.
James Anthony Downs was born on November 21, 1930, inEvanston, Illinois.[1] His father was the founder of a consulting firm, Real Estate Research Corporation, and a frequent speaker on real estate related topics. He grew up inPark Ridge, Illinois, a suburb of Chicago.[2]
He received a B.A. in international relations and political theory fromCarleton College in 1952.[3] During this time he was the elected president of the college student body. He would later credit this experience for some of his interests in studying democracy.[2] He went to theGraduate School of Business atStanford University on a scholarship to pursue his M.A. and Ph.D. ineconomics, obtaining his doctorate in 1956.[4]
He enlisted in theNavy and served as anintelligence officer when he was drafted. During this time he also served on an aircraft carrier in theMediterranean Sea. He quit the service after three years to join his father's consulting firm and also briefly served as a member of the faculty at theUniversity of Chicago.[2]
Downs served as a consultant to many of the nation's largest corporations and public institutions, including theU.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and theWhite House. PresidentLyndon B. Johnson appointed him to the National Commission on Urban Problems in 1967, and HUD SecretaryJack Kemp appointed him to the Advisory Commission on Regulatory Barriers to Affordable Housing in 1989. He was an officer or trustee of theNAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund.[5]
In hisseminal work,An Economic Theory of Democracy (1957), Downs introduced aleft–right axis to economic theory.[6] On the "left" he placedcommunist parties that want entirelystate-planned economies, and on the "right" he placedconservative parties that demand an entirely deregulated economy.[7]
He claimed that most voters have incomplete information when voting for political candidates in a democracy, and therefore will resort to economic issues of "how much government intervention in the economy there should be" and how parties will control this. Downs borrowed the curve fromHarold Hotelling, who developed it to explain how grocery stores targeted customers. Downs's book has since become one of the most cited books inpolitical science. His left–right axis model has been integrated into themedian voter theory first articulated byDuncan Black.[8]
InAn Economic Theory of Democracy (1957), an early work in rational choice theory, Downs posited theparadox of voting, which claimed that significant elements of political life could not be explained in terms of voterself-interest. Downs showed that in democracies the aggregate distribution of political opinion forms abell-shaped curve, with most voters possessing moderate opinions; he argued that this fact forcespolitical parties in democracies to adoptcentrist positions.[9]
Later, Downs concerned himself with housing policy,[10] writing aboutrent control andaffordable housing.The Revolution in Real Estate Finance (1985) predicted a long-term housing slowdown and decrease in housing prices. Downs had involved himself withtransportation economics.
In 1962, Downs published hisDowns's Law of Peak-Hour Traffic Congestion. This law states that onurban commuter expressways, peak-hour traffic congestion rises to meet maximum capacity. Therefore, expanding the expressway network does not help against traffic jams. A complex set of forces lie behind this law, which were analyzed by presentation of a model of commuter decision-making and its underlying set of assumptions.[11] Sometimes this effect is referred to asInduced demand. By the same token, e.g. the 1965Highway Capacity Manual stated that the capacity of a highway or motorway increases with decreasing traffic speed, until its maximum capacity is reached at about 50 km/h (30 mph).[12] (Cf.Braess's paradox.)
His book,Stuck in Traffic (1992), which detailed the economic disadvantages of traffic congestion and proposedroad pricing as the only effective means of alleviating it, was denounced bytraffic engineers for its insistence on the futility of congestion relief measures. However, enough of his gloomy predictions about congestion were proven correct that he successfully published a second edition,Still Stuck in Traffic (2004).[13][14]
Downs's recommendations are starting to see implementation, largely in the form ofhigh-occupancy toll (HOT) lanes in themedians of crowded Americanfreeways, and throughcongestion pricing, already implemented in several cities around the world:Singapore[15] (seeArea Licensing Scheme andElectronic Road Pricing);London (seeLondon congestion charge);Stockholm (seeStockholm congestion tax);Valletta,Malta;[16][17] andMilan,Italy.[18][19][20]
He joined theBrookings Institution, an American thinktank, in 1977. He continued his work on housing policies and traffic issues management at the institute.[2][21]
He was the author or co-author of 24 books and more than 500 articles. His most influential books areAn Economic Theory of Democracy (1957) andInside Bureaucracy (1967); widely translated, both are credited as major influences on thepublic choice school ofpolitical economy.[2][22][23]
He was a visiting fellow at thePublic Policy Institute of California inSan Francisco, between 2004 and 2005.[22]
Downs met his first wife, Mary Katherine Watson, at a high-school prom. During this time, he challenged her to a game of chess, which she won. The couple were married in 1956. They had five children. Kay died in 1998 fromovarian cancer.[2] Downs later married his second wife Darian Dreyfuss Olsen.[2]
Anthony Downs died of natural causes in Bethesda, Maryland, on October 2, 2021.[1][2]
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