This is an accepted version of this page
While the future cannot be predicted with certainty, present understanding in various scientific fields allows for the prediction of some far-future events, if only in the broadest outline.[1][2][3][4] These fields includeastrophysics, which studies howplanets andstars form, interact and die;particle physics, which has revealed how matter behaves at the smallest scales;evolutionary biology, which studies how life evolves over time;plate tectonics, which shows how continents shift over millennia; andsociology, which examines how human societies and cultures evolve.
These timelines begin at the start of the 4th millennium in 3001 CE, and continue until the furthest and most remote reaches of future time. They include alternative future events that address unresolved scientific questions, such as whetherhumans will become extinct, whether the Earth survives when the Sun expands to become ared giant and whetherproton decay will be the eventual end of all matter in the universe.
All projections of thefuture of Earth,the Solar System andthe universe must account for thesecond law of thermodynamics, which states thatentropy, or a loss of the energy available to do work, must rise over time.[5] Stars will eventually exhaust their supply ofhydrogen fuel via fusion and burn out. The Sun will likely expand sufficiently to overwhelm most of the inner planets (Mercury, Venus, and possibly Earth) but not the giant planets, including Jupiter and Saturn. Afterwards, the Sun will be reduced to the size of awhite dwarf, and the outer planets and their moons will continue to orbit this diminutive solar remnant. This future situation may be similar to the white dwarf starMOA-2010-BLG-477L and the Jupiter-sizedexoplanet orbiting it.[6][7][8]
Long after the death of the Solar System, physicists expect that matter itself will eventually disintegrate under the influence ofradioactive decay, as even the most stable materials break apart into subatomic particles.[9] Current data suggests that theuniverse has a flat geometry (or very close to flat) and will therefore notcollapse in on itself after a finite time.[10] This infinite future could allow for the occurrence of massively improbable events, such as the formation ofBoltzmann brains.[11]
Keys
 | Astronomy andastrophysics |
 | Geology andplanetary science |
.svg){kind=icon} | Biology |
.svg) | Particle physics |
 | Mathematics |
 | Technology andculture |
 | Years from now | Event |
|---|---|---|
 | 1,000 | Due to thelunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation, the average length of asolar day will be1⁄30 of anSI second longer than it is today. To compensate, either a leap second will have to be added to the end of a day multiple times during each month, or one or more consecutive leap seconds will have to be added at the end of some or all months.[12] |
| 1,100 | As Earth's polesprecess,Gamma Cephei replacesPolaris as the northernpole star.[13] |
 | 5,000 | As one of thelong-term effects of global warming, theGreenland ice sheet will have completely melted.[14][15] |
| 10,000 | If a failure of theWilkes Subglacial Basin "ice plug" in the next few centuries were to endanger theEast Antarctic Ice Sheet, it would take up to this long to melt completely.Sea levels would rise 3 to 4 metres.[16] One of the potentiallong-term effects of global warming, this is separate from the shorter-term threat to theWest Antarctic Ice Sheet. |
| 10,000 | If humans were extinct, Earth would be midway through a stable warm period with the nextglacial period of theQuaternary glaciation due in 10,000 years, but if humans survived and did impact their planet, the greenhouse gas emissions would disrupt this natural cycle.[17] According to research, thecarbon dioxide released from burning fossil fuels could cause the planet to skipglacial periods repeatedly for at least the next 500,000 years.[18] |
| 10,000 – 1 million[note 1] | Thered supergiant starsBetelgeuse andAntares will likely have exploded assupernovae. For a few months, the explosions should be easily visible on Earth in daylight.[19][20][21][22][23] |
| 11,700 | As Earth's poles precess,Vega, thefifth-brightest star in the sky, becomes the northernpole star.[24] Although Earth cycles through many differentnaked-eye northern pole stars, Vega is the brightest. |
| 11,000–15,000 | By this point, halfway through Earth's precessional cycle, Earth'saxial tilt will be mirrored, causingsummer andwinter to occur on opposite sides of Earth's orbit. This means that the seasons in theSouthern Hemisphere will be less extreme than they are today, as it will face away from the Sun at Earth'sperihelion and towards the Sun ataphelion; the seasons in theNorthern Hemisphere will be more extreme, as it experiences more pronounced seasonal variation because of a higher percentage of land.[25] |
| 15,000 | Theoscillating tilt of Earth's poles will have moved theNorth African Monsoon far enough north to change the climate of theSahara back into a tropical onesuch as it had 5,000–10,000 years ago.[26][27] |
| 17,000[note 1] | The best-guess recurrence rate for a "civilization-threatening"supervolcanic eruption large enough to eject one teratonne (one trillion tonnes) ofpyroclastic material.[28][29] |
| 25,000 | Thenorthern polar ice cap ofMars could recede as the planet reaches a warming peak of its northern hemisphere during the c. 50,000-yearperihelion precession aspect of itsMilankovitch cycle.[30][31] |
| 36,000 | The smallred dwarfRoss 248 will pass within 3.024 light-years of Earth, becoming the closest star to the Sun.[32] It will recede after about 8,000 years, making firstAlpha Centauri (again) and thenGliese 445 the nearest stars[32] (see timeline). |
| 50,000 | According to Berger and Loutre, the currentinterglacial period will end,[33] sending the Earth back into aglacial period of theQuaternary glaciation, regardless of the effects of anthropogenicglobal warming. However, according to more recent studies in 2016, anthropogenic climate change, if left unchecked, may delay this otherwise expected glacial period by as much as an additional 50,000 years, potentially skipping it entirely.[34] Niagara Falls will have eroded the remaining 32 km toLake Erie and will therefore cease to exist.[35] The manyglacial lakes of theCanadian Shield will have been erased bypost-glacial rebound and erosion.[36] |
| 50,000 | Due to lunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation, a day on Earth is expected to be oneSI second longer than it is today. To compensate, either aleap second will have to be added to the end of every day, or the length of the day will have to be officially lengthened by one SI second.[12] |
| 60,000 | It is possible that the current cooling trend might be interrupted by aninterstadial phase (a warmer period), with the nextglacial maximum of theQuaternary glaciation reached only in about 100 kyr AP.[37] |
| 100,000 | Theproper motion of stars across thecelestial sphere, which results from their movement through theMilky Way, renders many of theconstellations unrecognizable.[38] |
| 100,000[note 1] | Thered hypergiant starVY Canis Majoris will likely have exploded in asupernova.[39] |
 | 100,000 | Native North Americanearthworms, such asMegascolecidae, will have naturally spread north through the United StatesUpper Midwest to theCanada–US border, recovering from theLaurentide ice sheet glaciation (38°N to 49°N), assuming a migration rate of 10 metres per year, and that a possible renewed glaciation by this time has not prevented this.[40] (However, humans have already introduced non-nativeinvasive earthworms of North America on a much shorter timescale, causing a shock to the regionalecosystem.) |
| 100,000 – 10 million[note 1] | Cupid andBelinda, moons ofUranus, will likely have collided.[41] |
| 100,000[note 1] | Earth will likely have undergone asupervolcanic eruption large enough to erupt 400 km3 (96 cubic miles) ofmagma.[42] |
| 100,000 | According to Berger and Loutre, the nextglacial maximum of theQuaternary glaciation is expected to be the most intense, regardless of the effects ofanthropogenic global warming.[37] |
| > 100,000 | As one of thelong-term effects of global warming, ten percent ofanthropogenic carbon dioxide will still remain in a stabilized atmosphere.[43] |
| 250,000 | Kamaʻehuakanaloa (formerly Lōʻihi), the youngest volcano in theHawaiian–Emperor seamount chain, will rise above the surface of the ocean and become a newvolcanic island.[44] |
| c. 300,000[note 1] | At some point in the next few hundred thousand years, theWolf–Rayet starWR 104 may explode in asupernova. There is a small chance that WR 104 is spinning fast enough to produce agamma-ray burst (GRB), and an even smaller chance that such a GRB could pose a threat to life on Earth.[45][46] |
| 500,000[note 1] | Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid of roughly 1 km in diameter,assuming that it is not averted.[47] |
| 500,000 | The rugged terrain ofBadlands National Park inSouth Dakota will have eroded completely.[48] |
| 600,000[note 1] | The estimated time for the thirdsuper-eruption of theTobasupervolcano by this date. The first super-eruption occurred around 840,000 years ago, after 1.4 million years of magma input, whereas magma fed the second super-eruption at 75,000 years.[49][50] |
| 1 million | Meteor Crater, a largeimpact crater inArizona considered the "freshest" of its kind, will have worn away.[51] |
| 1 million[note 1] | Desdemona andCressida, moons ofUranus, will likely have collided.[52] Thestellar systemEta Carinae will likely have exploded in asupernova.[53] |
| 1 million[note 1] | Earth will likely have undergone asupervolcanic eruption large enough to erupt 3,200 km3 (770 cubic miles) of magma, an event comparable to theToba supereruption 75,000 years ago.[54] |
| 1.29 ± 0.04 million | The starGliese 710 will pass as close as 0.051parsecs (0.1663light-years; 10,520astronomical units)[55] to the Sun before moving away. This will gravitationallyperturb members of theOort cloud, a halo of icy bodies orbiting at the edge of the Solar System, thereafter raising the likelihood of a cometary impact in the inner Solar System.[56] |
| 2 million | The estimated time for the full recovery ofcoral reef ecosystems from human-causedocean acidification if such acidification goes unchecked; the recovery of marine ecosystems after the acidification event that occurred about 65 million years ago took a similar length of time.[57] |
| 2 million+ | TheGrand Canyon will erode further, deepening slightly, but principally widening into a broad valley surrounding theColorado River.[58] |
| 2.7 million | The average orbital half-life of currentcentaurs, which are unstable because of gravitational interactions with the severalouter planets.[59] Seepredictions for notable centaurs. |
| 3 million | Due to tidal deceleration gradually slowing Earth's rotation, a day on Earth is expected to be one minute longer than it is today. To compensate, either a"leap minute" will have to be added to the end of every day, or the length of the day will have to be officially lengthened by one SI minute.[12] |
| 6 million | Estimated time for cometC/1999 F1 (Catalina), one of the longest-period comets known to return to the inner Solar System, after having travelled in its orbit out to its aphelion 66,600 AU (1.053 light-years) from the Sun and back.[60] |
| 10 million | TheRed Sea will flood the wideningEast African Rift valley, causing a new ocean basin to divide the continent ofAfrica[61] and theAfrican plate into the newly formed Nubian plate and theSomali plate. TheIndian plate will advance intoTibet by 180 km (110 mi).Nepali territory, whose boundaries are defined by theHimalayan peaks and the plains ofIndia, will cease to exist.[62] |
| 10 million | The estimated time for the full recovery ofbiodiversity after a potentialHolocene extinction, if it were on the scale of the five previous majorextinction events.[63] Even without a mass extinction, by this time most current species will have disappeared through thebackground extinction rate, with manyclades gradually evolving into new forms.[64][65] |
| 15 million | An estimated 694 stars will approach the Solar System to less than 5parsecs. Of these, 26 have a good probability to come within 1.0 parsec (3.3 light-years) and 7 within 0.5 parsecs (1.6 light-years).[66] |
| 20 million | TheStrait of Gibraltar will have closed due tosubduction and aRing of Fire will form in theAtlantic, similar to that in thePacific.[67][68] |
| 30 million[note 1] | Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid of roughly 5 km in diameter,assuming that it is not averted.[69] |
| 50 million | The maximum estimated time before the moonPhobos collides withMars.[70] |
| 50 million | According toChristopher Scotese, the movement of theSan Andreas Fault will cause theGulf of California to flood into the CaliforniaCentral Valley. This will form a new inland sea on theWest Coast of North America, causing the current locations of Los Angeles and San Francisco in California to merge.[71][failed verification] The Californian coast will begin to be subducted into theAleutian Trench.[72] Africa's collision withEurasia will close theMediterranean basin and create a mountain range similar to theHimalayas.[73] TheAppalachian Mountains peaks will have largely worn away,[74] weathering at 5.7 Bubnoff units, although topography will actually rise as regionalvalleys deepen at twice this rate.[75] |
| 50–60 million | TheCanadian Rockies will have worn away to a plain, assuming a rate of 60 Bubnoff units.[76] TheSouthern Rockies in the United States are eroding at a somewhat slower rate.[77] |
| 50–400 million | The estimated time for Earth to naturally replenish itsfossil fuel reserves.[78] |
| 80 million | TheBig Island will have become the last of the currentHawaiian Islands to sink beneath the surface of the ocean, while a more recently formed chain of "new Hawaiian Islands" will then have emerged in their place.[79] |
| 100 million[note 1] | Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid comparable in size to the one that triggered theK–Pg extinction 66 million years ago,assuming this is not averted.[80] |
| 100 million | According to thePangaea Proxima model created by Christopher R. Scotese, a new subduction zone will open in the Atlantic Ocean, and the Americas will begin to converge back toward Africa.[71][failed verification] Upper estimate for the lifespan ofSaturn's rings in their current state.[81] |
| 110 million | The Sun's luminosity will have increased by one percent.[82] |
| 125 million | According to thePangaea Proxima model created by Christopher R. Scotese, theAtlantic Ocean is predicted to stop widening and begin to shrink as theMid-Atlantic Ridgeseafloor spreading gives way to subduction. In this scenario, themid-ocean ridge betweenSouth America andAfrica will probably be subducted first; the Atlantic Ocean is predicted to narrow as a result of subduction beneath the Americas. The Indian Ocean is also predicted to be smaller due to northward subduction of oceanic crust into the Central Indian trench.Antarctica is expected to split in two and shift northwards, colliding withMadagascar and Australia, enclosing a remnant of the Indian Ocean, which Scotese calls the "Medi-Pangaean Sea".[83][84] |
| 180 million | Due to the gradual slowing of Earth's rotation, a day on Earth will be one hour longer than it is today. To compensate, either a"leap hour" will have to be added to the end of every day, or the length of the day will have to be officially lengthened by one SI hour.[12] |
| 230 million | Prediction of the orbits of the Solar System's planets is impossible over timespans greater than this, due to the limitations ofLyapunov time.[85] |
| 240 million | From its present position, theSolar System completesone full orbit of theGalactic Center.[86] |
| 250 million | According to Christopher R. Scotese, due to the northward movement of the West Coast of North America, the coast ofCalifornia will collide withAlaska.[71][failed verification] |
| 250–350 million | All the continents on Earth may fuse into asupercontinent.[71][87] Four potential arrangements of this configuration have been dubbedAmasia,Novopangaea,Pangaea Proxima andAurica. This will likely result in aglacial period, lowering sea levels and increasing oxygen levels, further lowering global temperatures.[88][89] |
| > 250 million | The supercontinent's formation, thanks to a combination of continentality increasing distance from the ocean, an increase in volcanic activity resulting in atmospheric CO2 at double current levels, increased interspecific competition, and a 2.5 percent increase insolar flux, is likely to trigger an extinction event comparable to theGreat Dying 250 million years ago.Mammals in particular are unlikely to survive, assuming they still exist in their current forms by this point.[90][91] |
| 300 million | Due to a shift in the equatorialHadley cells to roughly 40° north and south, the amount of arid land will increase by 25%.[91] |
| 300–600 million | The estimated time forVenus's mantle temperature to reach its maximum. Then, over a period of about 100 million years, major subduction occurs and the crust is recycled.[92] |
| 350 million | According to the extroversion model first developed byPaul F. Hoffman, subduction ceases in thePacific Ocean basin.[87][93] |
| 400–500 million | The supercontinent (Pangaea Proxima, Novopangaea, Amasia, or Aurica) will likely have rifted apart.[87] This will likely result in higher global temperatures, similar to theCretaceous period.[89] |
| 500 million[note 1] | The estimated time until agamma-ray burst, or massive, hyperenergetic supernova, occurs within 6,500 light-years of Earth; close enough for its rays to affect Earth'sozone layer and potentially trigger amass extinction, assuming the hypothesis is correct that a previous such explosion triggered theOrdovician–Silurian extinction event. However, the supernova would have to be precisely oriented relative to Earth to have such effect.[94] |
| 600 million | Tidal acceleration moves theMoon far enough from Earth that totalsolar eclipses are no longer possible.[95] |
| 500–600 million | The Sun's increasing luminosity begins to disrupt thecarbonate–silicate cycle; higher luminosity increasesweathering of surface rocks, which trapscarbon dioxide in the ground as carbonate. As water evaporates from the Earth's surface, rocks harden, causingplate tectonics to slow and eventually stop once the oceans evaporate completely. With less volcanism to recycle carbon into the Earth's atmosphere, carbon dioxide levels begin to fall.[96] By this time, carbon dioxide levels will fall to the point at whichC3 photosynthesis is no longer possible. All plants that use C3 photosynthesis (roughly 99 percent of present-day species) will die.[97] The extinction of C3 plant life is likely to be a long-term decline rather than a sharp drop. It is likely that plant groups will die one by one well before the critical carbon dioxide level is reached. The first plants to disappear will be C3herbaceous plants, followed bydeciduous forests,evergreen broad-leaf forests, and finally evergreenconifers.[91] However, A 2024 paper by RJ Graham et al. argues that silicate weathering is far less temperature-dependent than initially thought, and that falling carbon dioxide levels are unlikely to lead to the death of life on Earth.[98] |
| 500–800 million | As Earth begins to warm and carbon dioxide levels fall,plants—and, by extension, animals—could survive longer by evolving other strategies such as requiring less carbon dioxide for photosynthetic processes, becomingcarnivorous, adapting todesiccation, orassociating with fungi. These adaptations are likely to appear near the beginning of the moist greenhouse.[91] The decrease in plant life will result in lessoxygen in theatmosphere, allowing for moreDNA-damagingultraviolet radiation to reach the surface. The rising temperatures will increase chemical reactions in the atmosphere, further lowering oxygen levels. Plant and animal communities become increasingly sparse and isolated as the Earth becomes more barren. Flying animals would be better off because of their ability to travel large distances looking for cooler temperatures.[99] Many animals may be driven to the poles or possibly underground. These creatures would become active during thepolar night andaestivate during thepolar day due to the intense heat and radiation. Much of the land would become a barren desert, and plants and animals would primarily be found in the oceans.[99] |
| 500–800 million | As pointed out byPeter Ward andDonald Brownlee in their bookThe Life and Death of Planet Earth, according toNASA Ames scientist Kevin Zahnle, this is the earliest time for plate tectonics to eventually stop, due to the gradual cooling of the Earth's core, which could potentially turn the Earth back into awater world. This would, in turn, likely cause the extinction of Earth's remaining land life.[99] |
| 800–900 million | Carbon dioxide levels will fall to the point at whichC4 photosynthesis is no longer possible.[97] Without plant life to recycle oxygen in the atmosphere, free oxygen and the ozone layer will disappear from the atmosphere allowing for intense levels of deadly UV light to reach the surface. Animals in food chains that were dependent on live plants will disappear shortly afterward.[91] At most, animal life could survive about 3 to 100 million years after plant life dies out. Just like plants, the extinction of animals will likely coincide with the loss of plants. It will start with large animals, then smaller animals and flying creatures, then amphibians, followed by reptiles and, finally, invertebrates.[96] In the bookThe Life and Death of Planet Earth, authors Peter D. Ward and Donald Brownlee state that some animal life may be able to survive in the oceans. Eventually, however, all multicellular life will die out.[100] The first sea animals to go extinct will be large fish, followed by small fish and then, finally, invertebrates.[96] The last animals to go extinct will be animals that do not depend on living plants, such astermites, or those nearhydrothermal vents, such asworms of the genusRiftia.[91] The only life left on the Earth after this will besingle-celled organisms. |
| 1 billion[note 2] | 27% of the ocean's mass will have beensubducted into the mantle. If this were to continue uninterrupted, it would reach an equilibrium where 65% of present-day surface water would be subducted.[101] |
| 1 billion | By this point, theSagittarius Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy will have been completely consumed by theMilky Way.[102] |
| 1.1 billion | The Sun's luminosity will have increased by 10%, causing Earth's surface temperatures to reach an average of around 320 K (47 °C; 116 °F). The atmosphere will become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans.[96][103] This would causeplate tectonics to stop completely, if not already stopped before this time.[104] Pockets of water may still be present at the poles, allowing abodes for simple life.[105][106] |
| 1.2 billion | High estimate until all plant life dies out, assuming some form of photosynthesis is possible despite extremely low carbon dioxide levels. If this is possible, rising temperatures will make any animal life unsustainable from this point on.[107][108][109] |
| 1.3 billion | Eukaryotic life dies out on Earth due to carbon dioxide starvation. Onlyprokaryotes remain.[100] |
| 1.5 billion | Callisto is captured into themean-motion resonance of the otherGalilean moons ofJupiter, completing the 1:2:4:8 chain. (Currently onlyIo,Europa andGanymede participate in the 1:2:4 resonance.)[110] |
| 1.5–1.6 billion | The Sun's rising luminosity causes itscircumstellar habitable zone to move outwards; ascarbon dioxide rises inMars's atmosphere, its surface temperature increases to levels akin to Earth during theice age.[100][111] |
| 1.5–4.5 billion | Tidal acceleration moves the Moon far enough from the Earth to the point where it can no longer stabilize Earth'saxial tilt. As a consequence, Earth'strue polar wander becomes chaotic and extreme, leading to dramatic shifts in the planet's climate due to the changing axial tilt.[112] |
| 1.6 billion | Lower estimate until all remaining life, which by now had been reduced to colonies of unicellular organisms in isolated microenvironments such as high-altitude lakes and caves, goes extinct.[96][100][113] |
| < 2 billion | The first close passage of theAndromeda Galaxy and theMilky Way.[114] |
| 2 billion | High estimate until the Earth's oceans evaporate if the atmospheric pressure were to decrease via thenitrogen cycle.[115] |
| 2.55 billion | The Sun will have reached a maximum surface temperature of 5,820 K (5,550 °C; 10,020 °F). From then on, it will become gradually cooler while its luminosity will continue to increase.[103] |
| 2.8 billion | Earth's surface temperature will reach around 420 K (147 °C; 296 °F), even at the poles.[96][113] |
| 2.8 billion | High estimate until all remaining Earth life goes extinct.[96][113] |
| 3–4 billion | TheEarth's core freezes if the inner core continues to grow in size, based on its current growth rate of 1 mm (0.039 in) in diameter per year.[116][117][118] Without its liquid outer core, Earth'smagnetosphere shuts down,[119] and solar winds gradually deplete the atmosphere.[120] |
| c. 3 billion[note 1] | There is a roughly 1-in-100,000 chance that the Earth will be ejected into interstellar space by a stellar encounter before this point, and a 1-in-300-billion chance that it will be both ejected into space and captured by another star around this point. If this were to happen, any remaining life on Earth could potentially survive for far longer if it survived the interstellar journey.[121] |
| 3.3 billion[note 1] | There is a roughly one percent chance thatJupiter's gravity may makeMercury's orbit soeccentric as to crossVenus's orbit by this time, sending the inner Solar System into chaos. Other possible scenarios include Mercury colliding with the Sun, being ejected from the Solar System, or colliding with Venus or Earth.[122][123] |
| 3.5–4.5 billion | The Sun's luminosity will have increased by 35–40%, causing all water currently present in lakes and oceans to evaporate, if it had not done so earlier. Thegreenhouse effect caused by the massive, water-rich atmosphere will result in Earth's surface temperature rising to 1,400 K (1,130 °C; 2,060 °F), which is hot enough to melt some surface rock.[104][115][124][125] |
| 3.6 billion | Neptune's moonTriton falls through the planet'sRoche limit, potentially disintegrating into a planetaryring system similar toSaturn's.[126] |
| 4.32 billion | Due to the gradual slowing of Earth's rotation, a day on Earth will be twice as long as it is today. To compensate, either a"leap day" will have to be added to the end of every day, or the length of the day will have to be officially lengthened by one day.[12] |
| 4.5 billion | Mars reaches the samesolar flux as that of the Earth when it first formed 4.5 billion years ago from today.[111] |
| < 5 billion | The Andromeda Galaxy will have fullymerged with the Milky Way, forming an elliptical galaxy dubbed "Milkomeda".[114] There is also a small chance of the Solar System being ejected.[114][127] The planets of the Solar System will almost certainly not be disturbed by these events.[128][129][130] |
| 5.4 billion | The Sun, having now exhausted its hydrogen supply, leaves themain sequence and beginsevolving into ared giant.[131] |
| 6.5 billion | Mars reaches the same solar radiation flux as Earth today, after which it will suffer a similar fate to the Earth as described above.[111] |
| 6.6 billion | The Sun may experience ahelium flash, resulting in its core becoming as bright as the combined luminosity of all the stars in the Milky Way galaxy.[132] |
| 7.5 billion | Earth and Mars may becometidally locked with the expanding red giant Sun.[111] |
| 7.59 billion | The Earth and Moon are very likely destroyed by falling into the Sun, just before the Sun reaches the top of itsred giant phase.[131][note 3] Before the final collision, the Moon possibly spirals below Earth'sRoche limit, breaking into a ring of debris, most of which falls to the Earth's surface.[133] During this era, Saturn's moonTitan, if not already ejected from theSaturnian system, may reach surface temperatures necessary to support life and would orbit further out from Saturn.[134] |
| 7.9 billion | The Sun reaches the top of the red-giant branch of theHertzsprung–Russell diagram, achieving its maximum radius of 256 times the present-day value.[135] In the process,Mercury,Venus and Earth are likely destroyed.[131] |
| 8 billion | The Sun becomes a carbon–oxygenwhite dwarf with about 54.05% of its present mass.[131][136][137][138] At this point, if the Earth survives, temperatures on the surface of the planet, as well as the other planets in the Solar System, will begin dropping rapidly, due to the white dwarf Sun emitting much less energy than it does today. |
| >22.3 billion | 22.3 billion years is the estimated time until the end of the universe in aBig Rip, assuming a model ofdark energy withw = −1.5.[139][140] If the density of dark energy is less than −1, then theuniverse's expansion will continue to accelerate and theobservable universe will grow ever sparser. Around 200 million years before the Big Rip, galaxy clusters like theLocal Group or theSculptor Group will be destroyed; 60 million years before the Big Rip, all galaxies will begin to losestars around their edges and will completely disintegrate in another 40 million years; three months before the Big Rip, star systems will become gravitationally unbound, and planets will fly off into the rapidly expanding universe; thirty minutes before the Big Rip,planets, stars,asteroids and even extreme objects likeneutron stars andblack holes will evaporate intoatoms; one hundredzeptoseconds (10−19 seconds) before the Big Rip, atoms will break apart. Ultimately, once the Rip reaches thePlanck scale, cosmic strings would be disintegrated as well as the fabric ofspacetime itself. The universe would enter into a "rip singularity" when all non-zero distances become infinitely large. Whereas a "crunch singularity" involves all matter being infinitely concentrated, in a "rip singularity", all matter is infinitely spread out.[141] Observations ofgalaxy cluster speeds by theChandra X-ray Observatory suggest that the value ofw is c. −0.991, meaning the Big Rip is unlikely to occur.[142] Meanwhile, more recent data (2018) from the Planck mission indicates the value ofw to be c. −1.028 (±0.031), pushing the earliest possible time of the Big Rip to approximately 200 billion years into the future.[143] |
| 50 billion | If the Earth and Moon are not engulfed by the Sun, by this time they will becometidally locked, with each showing only one face to the other.[144][145] Thereafter, the tidal action of the white dwarf Sun will extractangular momentum from the system, causing the lunar orbit to decay and the Earth's spin to accelerate.[146] |
| 65 billion | The Moon may collide with the Earth or be torn apart to form an orbital ring due to the decay of its orbit, assuming the Earth and Moon have not already been destroyed.[147] |
| 100 billion – 1 trillion | All the ≈47 galaxies[148] of theLocal Group will coalesce into a single large galaxy—an expanded"Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda"; the last galaxies of the Local Group coalescing will mark the effective completion of its evolution.[9] |
| 100–150 billion | Theuniverse's expansion causes all galaxies beyond the formerLocal Group to disappear beyond thecosmic light horizon, removing them from theobservable universe.[149][150] |
| 150 billion | The universe will have expanded by a factor of 6,000, and thecosmic microwave background will have cooled by the same factor to around4.5×10−4 K. The temperature of the background will continue to cool in proportion to the expansion of the universe.[150] |
| 325 billion | The estimated time by which the expansion of the universe will have isolated all gravitationally bound structures within their own cosmological horizon. At this point, the universe will have expanded by a factor of more than 100 million from today, and even individual exiled stars will be isolated.[151] |
| 800 billion | The expected time when the net light emission from the combined "Milkomeda" galaxy begins to decline as thered dwarf stars pass through theirblue dwarf stage of peak luminosity.[152] |
| 1 trillion | A low estimate for the time untilstar formation ends in galaxies as galaxies are depleted of thegas clouds they need to form stars.[9] The universe's expansion, assuming a constant dark energy density, multiplies the wavelength of the cosmic microwave background by 1029, exceeding the scale of thecosmic light horizon and rendering its evidence of theBig Bang undetectable. However, it may still be possible to determine the expansion of the universe through the study ofhypervelocity stars.[149] |
| 1.05 trillion | The estimated time by which the universe will have expanded by a factor of more than 1026, reducing the average particle density to less than one particle percosmological horizon volume. Beyond this point, particles of unbound intergalactic matter are effectively isolated, and collisions between them cease to affect the future evolution of the universe.[151] |
| 1.4 trillion | The estimated time by which the cosmic background radiation cools to a floor temperature of 10−30 K and does not decline further. This residual temperature comes fromhorizon radiation, which does not decline over time.[150] |
| 2 trillion | The estimated time by which all objects beyond our former Local Group areredshifted by a factor of more than 1053. Evengamma rays that they emit are stretched so that their wavelengths are greater than the physical diameter of the horizon. The resolution time for such radiation will exceed the physical age of the universe.[153] |
| 4 trillion | The estimated time until the red dwarf starProxima Centauri, the closest star to the Sun today, at a distance of 4.25 light-years, leaves the main sequence and becomes a white dwarf.[154] |
| 10 trillion | The estimated time of peak habitability in the universe, unless habitability around low-mass stars is suppressed.[155] |
| 12 trillion | The estimated time until the red dwarf starVB 10—as of 2016, the least-massivemain-sequence star with an estimated mass of 0.075 M☉—runs out of hydrogen in its core and becomes a white dwarf.[156][157] |
| 30 trillion | The estimated time for stars (including the Sun) to undergo a close encounter with another star in local stellar neighborhoods. Whenever two stars (orstellar remnants) pass close to each other, their planets' orbits can be disrupted, potentially ejecting them from the system entirely. On average, the closer a planet's orbit to its parent star the longer it takes to be ejected in this manner, because it is gravitationally more tightly bound to the star.[158] |
| 100 trillion | A high estimate for the time by which normalstar formation ends in galaxies.[9] This marks the transition from theStelliferous Era to the Degenerate Era; with too little free hydrogen to form new stars, all remaining stars slowly exhaust their fuel and die.[159] By this time, the universe will have expanded by a factor of approximately 102554.[151] |
| 110–120 trillion | The time by which all stars in the universe will have exhausted their fuel (the longest-lived stars, low-massred dwarfs, have lifespans of roughly 10–20 trillion years).[9] After this point, the stellar-mass objects remaining are stellar remnants (white dwarfs,neutron stars,black holes) andbrown dwarfs. Collisions between brown dwarfs will create new red dwarfs on a marginal level: on average, about 100 stars will shine in what was once "Milkomeda". Collisions between stellar remnants will create occasional supernovae.[9] |
| 1015 (1 quadrillion) | The estimated time until stellar close encounters detach all planets in star systems (including the Solar System) from their orbits.[9] By this point, theblack dwarf that was once the Sun will have cooled to 5 K (−268.15 °C; −450.67 °F).[160] |
| 1019 to 1020 (10–100 quintillion) | The estimated time until 90–99% of brown dwarfs and stellar remnants (including the Sun) are ejected from galaxies. When two objects pass close enough to each other, they exchange orbital energy, with lower-mass objects tending to gain energy. Through repeated encounters, the lower-mass objects can gain enough energy in this manner to be ejected from their galaxy. This process eventually causes "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" to eject the majority of its brown dwarfs and stellar remnants.[9][161] |
| 1020 (100 quintillion) | The estimated time until the Earth collides with theblack dwarf Sun due to the decay of its orbit via emission ofgravitational radiation,[162] if the Earth is not ejected from its orbit by a stellar encounter or engulfed by the Sun during its red giant phase.[162] |
| 1023 (100 sextillion) | Around this timescale most stellar remnants and other objects are ejected from the remains of their galactic cluster.[163] |
| 1030 (1 nonillion) | The estimated time until most or all of the remaining 1–10% of stellar remnants not ejected from galaxies fall into their galaxies' centralsupermassive black holes. By this point, withbinary stars having fallen into each other, and planets into their stars, via emission of gravitational radiation, only solitary objects (stellar remnants, brown dwarfs, ejected planetary-mass objects, black holes) will remain in the universe.[9] |
 | 2×1036 (2 undecillion) | The estimated time for allnucleons in the observable universe to decay, if the hypothesizedproton half-life takes its smallest possible value (8.2 × 1033 years).[164][note 4] |
| 1036–1038 (1–100 undecillion) | The estimated time for all remaining planets and stellar-mass objects, including the Sun, to disintegrate ifproton decay can occur.[9] |
| 3×1043 (30 tredecillion) | The estimated time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if the hypothesized proton half-life takes the largest possible value of 1041 years,[9] assuming that the Big Bang wasinflationary and that the same process that made baryons predominate over anti-baryons in the early universe makes protons decay. By this time, if protons do decay, theBlack Hole Era, in which black holes are the only remaining celestial objects, begins.[9][159] |
| 3.14×1050 (314 quindecillion) | The estimated time until amicro black hole of oneEarth mass today will have decayed intosubatomic particles by the emission ofHawking radiation.[165] |
| 1065 (100 vigintillion) | Assuming that protons do not decay, the estimated time for rigid objects, from free-floating rocks in space to planets, to rearrange theiratoms andmolecules viaquantum tunnelling. On this timescale, any discrete body of matter "behaves like a liquid" and becomes a smooth sphere due to diffusion and gravity.[162] |
| 1.16×1067 (11.6 unvigintillion) | The estimated time until a black hole of onesolar mass today will have decayed by the emission ofHawking radiation.[165] |
| 1.54×1091–1.41×1092 (15.4–141 novemvigintillion) | The estimated time until the resultingsupermassive black hole of "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" from the merger ofSagittarius A* and theP2 concentration during thecollision of the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies[166] will have vanished by the emission ofHawking radiation,[165] assuming it does not accrete any additional matter nor merge with other black holes—though it is most likely that this supermassive black hole will nonetheless merge with other supermassive black holes during the gravitational collapse towards "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" of other Local Group galaxies.[167] This supermassive black hole might be the very last entity from the former Local Group to disappear—and the last evidence of its existence. |
| 10106 – 2.1×10109 | The estimated time until ultramassive black holes of 1014 (100 trillion) solar masses, predicted to form during the gravitational collapse of galaxysuperclusters,[168] decay by Hawking radiation.[165] This marks the end of the Black Hole Era. Beyond this time, if protons do decay, the universe enters theDark Era, in which all physical objects have decayed tosubatomic particles, gradually winding down to their final energy state in theheat death of the universe.[9][159] |
| 10161 | A 2018 estimate of Standard Model lifetime beforecollapse of a false vacuum; 95% confidence interval is 1065 to 101383 years due in part to uncertainty about the top quark's mass.[169][note 5] |
| 10200 | The highest estimate for the time it would take for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, provided they do not decay via the above process but instead through any one of many different mechanisms allowed in modern particle physics (higher-orderbaryon non-conservation processes,virtual black holes,sphalerons, etc.) on timescales of 1046 to 10200 years.[159] |
| 101100–32000 | The estimated time for black dwarfs of 1.2 solar masses or more to undergo supernovae as a result of slowsilicon–nickel–iron fusion, as the declining electron fraction lowers theirChandrasekhar limit, assuming protons do not decay.[170] |
| 101500 | Assuming that protons do not decay, the estimated time until allbaryonic matter in stellar remnants, planets and planetary-mass objects will have either fused together viamuon-catalyzed fusion to formiron-56 or decayed from a higher mass element into iron-56 to formiron stars.[162] |
| [note 6][note 7] | A low estimate for the time until all iron stars collapse viaquantum tunnelling intoblack holes, assuming noproton decay orvirtual black holes, and that Planck-scale black holes can exist.[162] On this vast timescale, even ultra-stable iron stars will have been destroyed by quantum-tunnelling events. At this lower end of the timescale, iron stars decay directly to black holes, as this decay mode is much more favourable than decaying into a neutron star (which has an expected timescale of years)[162] and later decaying into a black hole. On these timescales, the subsequent evaporation of each resulting black hole into subatomic particles (a process lasting roughly10100 years) and the subsequent shift to theDark Era is instantaneous. |
| [note 1][note 7] | The estimated time for aBoltzmann brain to appear in the vacuum via a spontaneousentropy decrease.[11] |
| [note 7] | Highest estimate for the time until all iron stars collapse via quantum tunnelling into neutron stars or black holes, assuming no proton decay or virtual black holes, and that black holes below the Chandrasekhar mass cannot form directly.[162] On these timescales, neutron stars above the Chandrasekhar mass rapidly collapse into black holes, and black holes formed by these processes instantly evaporate into subatomic particles. This is also the highest estimated possible time for the Black Hole Era (and subsequent Dark Era) to commence. Beyond this point, it is almost certain that the universe will be an almost pure vacuum, gradually winding down its energy level until it reaches itsfinal energy state, assuming it does not happen before this time. |
| [note 7] | The highest estimate for the time it takes for the universe to reach its final energy state.[11] |
| [note 1][note 7] | Around this vast timeframe, quantum tunnelling in any isolated patch of the universe could generate newinflationary events, resulting in new Big Bangs giving birth to new universes.[171] (Because the total number of ways in which all the subatomic particles in the observable universe can be combined is,[172][173] a number which, when multiplied by, is approximately, this is also the time required for a quantum-tunnelled andquantum fluctuation-generated Big Bang to produce a new universe identical to our own, assuming that every new universe contained at least the same number of subatomic particles and obeyed laws of physics withinthe landscape predicted bystring theory.)[174][175] |
Keys
| Astronomy andastrophysics |
| Geology andplanetary science |
| Biology |
| Particle physics |
| Mathematics |
| Technology andculture |
To date, five spacecraft (Voyager 1,Voyager 2,Pioneer 10,Pioneer 11 andNew Horizons) are ontrajectories that will take them out of the Solar System and intointerstellar space. Barring an extremely unlikely collision with some object, all five should persist indefinitely.[176]
| Date (CE) oryears from now | Event |
|---|---|---|
 | 3183 CE | TheZeitpyramide (time pyramid), a public art work started in 1993 atWemding,Germany, is scheduled for completion.[177] |
| 4017 CE | Maximum lifespan of the data films inArctic World Archive, a repository that contains code ofopen-source projects onGitHub along with other data of historical interest (if stored in optimum conditions).[178] |
| 5207 CE | According toMichio Kaku, the time by whichhumanity will be aType II civilization, capable of harnessing all the energy of itshost star.[179] |
| 10,000 | TheWaste Isolation Pilot Plant for nuclear weapons waste is planned to be protected until this time, with a "Permanent Marker" system designed to warn off visitors through multiple languages (the sixUN languages andNavajo) andpictograms.[180] TheHuman Interference Task Force has provided the theoretical basis for United States plans for future nuclearsemiotics.[181] |
| 10,000 | Planned lifespan of theLong Now Foundation's several ongoing projects, including a 10,000-year clock known as theClock of the Long Now, theRosetta Project and theLong Bet Project.[182] Estimated lifespan of theHD-Rosetta analog disc—anion beam-etched writing medium on nickel plate, a technology developed atLos Alamos National Laboratory and later commercialized. (The Rosetta Project uses this technology, named after theRosetta Stone.) |
| 10,000 | Projected lifespan of Norway'sSvalbard Global Seed Vault.[183] |
| 10,000 | Most probable estimated lifespan of technological civilization, according toFrank Drake's original formulation of theDrake equation.[184] |
| 10,000 | Ifglobalization trends lead topanmixia,human genetic variation will no longer be regionalized, as theeffective population size will equal the actual population size.[185] |
| 20,000 | According to theglottochronology linguistic model ofMorris Swadesh, future languages should retain just one out of every 100 "core vocabulary" words on theirSwadesh list compared to that of their current progenitors.[186] TheChernobyl exclusion zone is expected to become habitable again.[187] |
| 24,110 | Half-life ofplutonium-239.[188] At this point theChernobyl Exclusion Zone, the 2,600-square-kilometre (1,000 sq mi) area ofUkraine andBelarus left deserted by the 1986Chernobyl disaster, will return to normal levels of radiation.[189] |
| 25,000 | TheArecibo message, a collection of radio data transmitted on 16 November 1974, will reach the distance of its destination: theglobular clusterMessier 13.[190] This is the onlyinterstellar radio message sent to such a distant region of the galaxy. There will be a 24-light-year shift in the cluster's position in the galaxy during the time taken for the message to reach it, but as the cluster is 168 light-years in diameter, the message will still reach its destination.[191] Any reply will take at least another 25,000 years from the time of its transmission. |
| 14 September 30828 CE | Maximumsystem time for 64-bitNTFS-basedWindows operating system.[192] |
| 33,800 | Pioneer 10 passes within 3.4 light-years ofRoss 248.[193] |
| 42,200 | Voyager 2 passes within 1.7 light-years of Ross 248.[193] |
| 44,100 | Voyager 1 passes within 1.8 light-years ofGliese 445.[193] |
| 46,600 | Pioneer 11 passes within 1.9 light-years of Gliese 445.[193] |
| 50,000 | Estimated atmospheric lifetime oftetrafluoromethane, the most durablegreenhouse gas.[194] |
| 90,300 | Pioneer 10 passes within 0.76 light-years ofHIP 117795.[193] |
| 100,000+ | Time required toterraform Mars with anoxygen-rich breathable atmosphere, using only plants with solar efficiency comparable to the biosphere currently found on Earth.[195] |
| 100,000–1 million | Estimated time by whichhumanity will be aType III civilization, and could colonize the Milky Way galaxy and become capable ofharnessing all the energy of the galaxy, assuming a velocity of 10% thespeed of light.[196] |
| 250,000 | The estimated minimum time at which the spentplutonium stored at New Mexico'sWaste Isolation Pilot Plant will cease to be radiologically lethal to humans.[197] |
| 13 September 275760 CE | Maximumsystem time for theJavaScript programming language.[198] |
| 492,300 | Voyager 1 passes within 1.3 light-years ofHD 28343.[193] |
| 1 million | Estimated lifespan ofMemory of Mankind (MOM)self storage-style repository inHallstatt salt mine in Austria, which stores information oninscribed tablets ofstoneware.[199] Planned lifespan of the Human Document Project being developed at theUniversity of Twente in the Netherlands.[200] |
| 1 million | Currentglass objects in the environment will be decomposed.[201] Various public monuments composed of hardgranite will have eroded by one metre, in a moderate climate and assuming a rate of 1 Bubnoff unit (1 mm in 1,000 years, or ≈1 inch in 25,000 years).[202] Without maintenance, theGreat Pyramid of Giza will have eroded to the point where it is unrecognizable.[203] On theMoon,Neil Armstrong's "one small step"footprint atTranquility Base will erode by this time, along with those left by alltwelve Apollo moonwalkers, due to the accumulated effects ofspace weathering.[118][204] (Normal erosion processes active on Earth are not present on the Moon because of itsalmost complete lack of atmosphere.) |
| 1.2 million | Pioneer 11 comes within three light-years ofDelta Scuti.[193] |
| 2 million | Pioneer 10 passes near the bright starAldebaran.[205] |
| 2 million | Vertebrate species separated for this long will generally undergoallopatric speciation.[206] Evolutionary biologistJames W. Valentine predicted that if humanity has been dispersed among genetically isolatedspace colonies over this time, the galaxy will host anevolutionary radiation of multiple human species with a "diversity of form and adaptation that would astound us".[207] This would be a natural process of isolated populations, unrelated to potential deliberategenetic enhancement technologies. |
| 4 million | Pioneer 11 passes near one of the stars in the constellationAquila.[205] |
| 5–10 million | Due to gradual degeneration, theY chromosome will have disappeared.[208][209] |
| 7.2 million | Without maintenance,Mount Rushmore will have eroded to the point where it is unrecognizable.[210] |
 | 8 million | Humanity has a 95% probability of extinction by this date, according toJ. Richard Gott's formulation of the controversialDoomsday argument.[211] |
| 8 million | Most probable lifespan of thePioneer 10 plaques before the etching is destroyed by poorly understood interstellar erosion processes.[212] TheLAGEOS satellites' orbits will decay, and they will re-enter Earth's atmosphere, carrying with them a message to any far future descendants of humanity and a map of the continents as they are expected to appear then.[213] |
| 100 million | Maximal estimated lifespan of technological civilization, according toFrank Drake's original formulation of theDrake equation.[214] |
| 100 million | Future archaeologists should be able to identify an "UrbanStratum" of fossilizedgreat coastal cities, mostly through the remains of underground infrastructure such asbuilding foundations andutility tunnels.[215] |
| 1 billion | Estimated lifespan of "Nanoshuttle memory device" using aniron nanoparticle moved as amolecular switch through acarbon nanotube, a technology developed at theUniversity of California at Berkeley.[216] |
| 1 billion | Estimated lifespan of the twoVoyager Golden Records before the information stored on them is rendered unrecoverable.[217] Estimated time for anastroengineering project to alter theEarth's orbit, compensating for the Sun's increasing brightness and outward migration of thehabitable zone, accomplished by repeated asteroidgravity assists.[218][219] |
| 292277026596 CE (292 billion) | Numeric overflow in system time for 64-bitUnix systems.[220] |
| 1020 (100 quintillion) | Estimated timescale for the Pioneer and Voyager spacecrafts to collide with a star (or stellar remnant).[193] |
| 3×1019 –3×1021 (30 quintillion to 3 sextillion) | Estimated lifespan of "Superman memory crystal" data storage usingfemtosecond laser-etchednanostructures in glass, a technology developed at theUniversity of Southampton, at an ambient temperature of 30 °C (86 °F; 303 K).[221][222] |
The last time acidification on this scale occurred (about 65 mya) it took more than 2 million years for corals and other marine organisms to recover; some scientists today believe, optimistically, that it could take tens of thousands of years for the ocean to regain the chemistry it had in preindustrial times.
[...] 'How long will the Rockies last?' [...] The numbers suggest that in about 50 to 60 million years the remaining mountains will be gone, and the park will be reduced to a rolling plain much like the Canadian prairies.
[...] all the rings should collapse [...] in about 100 million years.
[NASA's David Morrison] explained that theAndromeda-Milky Way collision would just be two great big fuzzy balls of stars and mostly empty space passing through each other harmlessly over the course of millions of years.
{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: overridden setting (link)When galaxies collide, the supermassive black holes in the central contract eventually find their way into the centre of the newly created galaxy where they are ultimately pulled together.
p. 596: table 1 and section "black hole decay" and previous sentence on that page: "Since we have assumed a maximum scale of gravitational binding – for instance, superclusters of galaxies – black hole formation eventually comes to an end in our model, with masses of up to 1014M☉ ... the timescale for black holes to radiate away all their energy ranges ... to 10106 years for black holes of up to 1014M☉"
[Pioneer's speed is] about 12 km/s... [the plate etching] should survive recognizable at least to a distance ≈10 parsecs, and most probably to 100 parsecs.
| Key concepts | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measurement andstandards |
| ||||||||
| Philosophy of time | |||||||||
| Human experience anduse of time | |||||||||
| Time inscience |
| ||||||||
| Related | |||||||||
