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46th Canadian federal election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Next general election in Canada

46th Canadian federal election

← 2025
On or before October 15, 2029 (2029-10-15)

343 seats in theHouse of Commons
172 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
LeaderMark CarneyPierre PoilievreYves-François Blanchet
PartyLiberalConservativeBloc Québécois
Leader sinceMarch 9, 2025September 10, 2022January 17, 2019
Leader's seatNepeanBattle River—CrowfootBelœil—Chambly
Last election169 seats, 43.76%144 seats, 41.31%22 seats, 6.29%
Current seats16814222
Seats neededIncrease 4Increase 30N/A[a]

 
LeaderDon Davies
(interim)
Elizabeth May
(outgoing)[b]
PartyNew DemocraticGreen
Leader sinceMay 5, 2025November 19, 2022
Leader's seatVancouver KingswaySaanich—Gulf Islands
Last election7 seats, 6.29%1 seat, 1.22%
Current seats71
Seats neededIncrease 165Increase 171

Incumbent Prime Minister

Mark Carney
Liberal



The46th Canadian federal election will elect members of theHouse of Commons to the 46th Canadian Parliament. TheCanada Elections Act requires that the election be held no later than October 15, 2029, but it may becalled earlier.

The2025 Canadian federal election resulted in the formation of aminority government led byMark Carney.

Date of the election

[edit]

Under thefixed-date provisions of theCanada Elections Act, a federal election must be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.[5] The previous election was heldin 2025, therefore an election is scheduled to take place on October 15, 2029. However, the election may occur before that date if thegovernor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister, either for asnap election or after the government loses a vote on asupply bill (which has not happenedsince 1979) or a specificmotion of no confidence (which has not happenedsince 2011). Early elections are more likely to occur duringminority governments because the prime minister does not control a majority in the House of Commons and thus is more likely to lose votes in the House.[6][7][8]

Background

[edit]

In the2025 Canadian federal election, the incumbentLiberal Party, led by Prime MinisterMark Carney, won a plurality of seats but failed to win enough seats to gain a parliamentary majority, continuing their six-year tenure as a minority government and marking the third consecutive term of a Liberalminority government. Led byJustin Trudeau, the party won a majority governmentin 2015, after almost ten years of Conservative leadership underStephen Harper, but later it was reduced to a minority government in the2019 election and remained as suchin 2021.[9]

TheConservative Party continued as theOfficial Opposition, with party leaderPierre Poilievre losing re-election in his seat ofCarleton afternearly 21 years to Liberal candidateBruce Fanjoy.[10]Damien Kurek, the Conservative member of Parliament–elect for the riding ofBattle River—Crowfoot, announced his intentions to resign on May 2, 2025, allowing Poilievre to run ina by-election.[11] Kurek had to wait 30 days after election results were published in theCanada Gazette to resign officially, and plans to run for the Alberta seat again in the next general election.[12] On May 6,Andrew Scheer became theleader of the Official Opposition, the title he had previously held from 2017 to 2020, as Poilievre could not officially hold the title without a seat in Parliament.[13] Poilievre was elected on August 18, returning to the House of Commons.

Jagmeet Singh, the leader of theNew Democratic Party, also lost his seat,[c] with the party winning just seven seats, resulting in the loss of the party'sofficial party status for the first timesince 1993. It was the worst result in the history of the party, including its predecessor party, theCo-operative Commonwealth Federation. As a result, Singh announced his intention to resign from the leadership of the NDP once aninterim leader was chosen.[14] On May 5,Don Davies was chosen by the party's Federal Council as interimleader of the NDP until thenext leadership election.[15]

Jonathan Pedneault, the co-leader of theGreen Party, was not elected to a seat in Parliament, with the party winning just one seat and receiving its lowest share of the popular votesince 2000. As a result, Pedneault announced his resignation as co-leader shortly after the election.[1] On August 19,Elizabeth May announced her intention to resign as party leader.[16]

Incumbents not standing for re-election

[edit]
Member of ParliamentElectoral districtProvince or territoryDate announced
 Cathay Wagantall[17]Yorkton—MelvilleSaskatchewanJuly 28, 2025
 Matt Jeneroux[18]Edmonton RiverbendAlbertaNovember 6, 2025

Timeline

[edit]

Changes in seats held

[edit]
See also:By-elections to the 45th Canadian Parliament
Changes in seats held (2025–present)
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
Battle River—CrowfootJune 17, 2025Damien Kurek ConservativeResigned to provide a seat forPierre PoilievreAugust 18, 2025Pierre Poilievre Conservative
Acadie—AnnapolisNovember 4, 2025Chris d'Entremont ConservativeLeft caucus to join theLiberal Party government caucus[19][20] Liberal
Markham—UnionvilleDecember 11, 2025Michael Ma ConservativeLeft caucus to join the Liberal Party government caucus Liberal
University—RosedaleJanuary 9, 2026Chrystia Freeland LiberalResigned to become an economic advisor for UkraineBy-election TBA Vacant
Scarborough SouthwestFebruary 2, 2026Bill Blair LiberalResigned as a member of parliament to become theCanadian high commissioner to the United KingdomBy-election TBA Vacant
TerrebonneFebruary 13, 2026Tatiana Auguste Liberal2025 election results annulled by theSupreme Court of CanadaBy-election TBA Vacant

2025

[edit]

2026

[edit]

Opinion polls

[edit]
Main article:Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Although parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats), thus rendering it impossible for the party to gain a majority in Parliament.
  2. ^The Green Party has not had a co-leader since April 30, 2025, whenJonathan Pedneault resigned.[1]On August 19, May announced her intention to resign as party leader before the next election.[2] May said she intends to remain leader until a new leader or co-leaders are chosen, and that she wants to remain leader "at least until 2026".[3][4]
  3. ^Burnaby South, which Singh represented before the election, was abolished during the2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. Singh ran in Burnaby Central, a riding which encompasses much of the same territory.

References

[edit]
  1. ^abCaruso-Moro, Luca (April 30, 2025)."Green Party co-leader Jonathan Pedneault resigns".CP24. RetrievedApril 30, 2025.
  2. ^Major, Darren (August 19, 2025)."Elizabeth May says she won't lead Green Party in next election".CBC News. RetrievedSeptember 2, 2025.
  3. ^@ElizabethMay (August 20, 2025)."I hope to receive strong support from our membership in the leadership review, and commit that I will stay on as MP..." (Tweet) – viaTwitter.
  4. ^DeRosa, Katie (August 20, 2025)."Elizabeth May to step down as leader of the federal Green Party — eventually".CBC News. RetrievedSeptember 4, 2025.
  5. ^"An Act to amend the Canada Elections Act". LegisINFO. May 3, 2007.Archived(PDF) from the original on June 25, 2024. RetrievedJune 25, 2024.
  6. ^Aiello, Rachel (October 24, 2019)."Split opposition means stronger minority for Liberals, experts say".CTV News. Archived fromthe original on October 24, 2019. RetrievedOctober 25, 2019.
  7. ^Harris, Kathleen (October 21, 2020)."Snap election averted as Liberal government survives confidence vote in Commons".CBC News. RetrievedNovember 26, 2020.
  8. ^Coyne, Andrew (October 28, 2020)."What, exactly, is a non-confidence vote? Parliament should get to decide".The Globe and Mail. RetrievedNovember 26, 2020.
  9. ^Shamim, Sarah (April 29, 2025)."Canada election results: Who are the key winners and losers?".Al Jazeera. RetrievedMay 7, 2025.
  10. ^"Liberal Bruce Fanjoy topples Pierre Poilievre in Carleton".CBC. April 29, 2025. RetrievedApril 29, 2025.
  11. ^Ha, Stephanie (May 2, 2025)."Conservative MP gives up seat for Pierre Poilievre to run in byelection".CTV News. RetrievedMay 2, 2025.
  12. ^Tunney, Catharine (May 5, 2025)."Conservative Damien Kurek says he'll step aside for Poilievre — but by law he has to wait".CBC News. RetrievedMay 6, 2025.
  13. ^"Poilievre pledges to listen after election loss, Scheer tapped to represent caucus in interim".CTV News. May 6, 2025. RetrievedMay 6, 2025.
  14. ^Hunter, Justine (April 29, 2025)."Jagmeet Singh to resign as NDP Leader".The Globe and Mail. RetrievedApril 29, 2025.
  15. ^Little, Simon (May 5, 2025)."NDP choose Vancouver MP Don Davies as interim leader".Global News. RetrievedMay 5, 2025.
  16. ^https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/elizabeth-may-not-leading-greens-next-election-1.7612908
  17. ^Lee, Cam (July 28, 2025)."Cathay Wagantall serving final term as MP for Yorkton-Melville".northeastNOW.Pattison Media. RetrievedJuly 28, 2025.
  18. ^Ha, Stephanie (November 6, 2025)."Conservative MP says he's resigning next spring, denies 'coercion' involved in decision".CTV News. RetrievedNovember 7, 2025.
  19. ^"Conservative MP says he's considering joining Canada's Liberal government".POLITICO. November 4, 2025. RetrievedNovember 4, 2025.
  20. ^Tasker, John Paul (November 4, 2025)."Nova Scotia MP Chris d'Entremont is out of the Conservative caucus".CBC News.
  21. ^Van Dyk, Spencer; Aiello, Rachel (November 5, 2025)."Nova Scotia MP resigns from Conservative caucus, crosses floor to join Carney Liberals".CTV News. RetrievedNovember 5, 2025.
  22. ^Ha, Stephanie (December 12, 2025)."MP Michael Ma leaves Conservative caucus to join Liberals".CTV News. RetrievedDecember 12, 2025.
  23. ^"Longtime Liberal MP Chrystia Freeland's resignation takes effect today".CityNews Ottawa. January 9, 2026. RetrievedJanuary 9, 2026.
  24. ^Tasker, John Paul (January 31, 2026)."Pierre Poilievre sails through leadership review as Conservatives deliver a strong endorsement".CBC News. RetrievedFebruary 1, 2026.
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