2026 United States Senate election in Texas
The2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent the state ofTexas .Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with arunoff election held on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority in their respective primaries. Incumbent four-termRepublican SenatorJohn Cornyn , who was re-elected in2020 , is running for re-election to a fifth term. Cornyn is facing a primary challenge fromRepresentative Wesley Hunt andTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton .
Republicans have won every Senate election in Texas since1990 , and an incumbent senator has not lost a primary since1970 .
Republican primary
Background Incumbent SenatorJohn Cornyn is seeking a fifth term but is facing a competitive challenge fromAttorney General Ken Paxton . The two have clashed for years with Paxton criticizing Cornyn for being insufficiently conservative, particularly over his support forU.S. aid to Ukraine ,DREAM Act forDACA beneficiaries and playing a leading role in the passage of thebipartisan gun safety bill after theUvalde school massacre . Cornyn, in turn, has highlightedPaxton's legal troubles , perceivedcharacter flaws and corruption, and his2023 impeachment , in which Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlledTexas House before theSenate later acquitted him of all charges.[ 1] [ 2] [ 3] [ 4]
The race has been viewed as a key battle between theTexas Republican Party 's establishment wing and its hardline conservative faction.[ 1] hard-right faction has been steadily gaining ground in recent years and has ousted more traditional GOP elected officials. Polling has found clear evidence of the divide and that Paxton has a massive lead among "Trump Movement " voters while Cornyn leads among "Traditional Republicans " who make up a much smaller chunk of the electorate.[ 5] RINO for backing the gun safety bill which Paxton has highlighted in ads.[ 6] [ 7] President Trump has yet to endorse either of the candidates though he says that both Paxton and Cornyn are good friends of his.[ 8] [ 9] Ted Cruz , the junior senator, has also avoided picking a side in the primary, having previously endorsed Cornyn in the last primary of 2020.[ 10]
The election also comes amidst efforts by the state Republican primary to close itsprimary election to only registered members. Legislation aimed at allowing closed primaries failed in the legislature, leading to the party suing the state, alleging the existing law violates theFirst Amendment .[ 11] [ 12]
Campaign Paxton has led Cornyn in early polling conducted both before and after his official entry into the race. Questions have been raised about Paxton's electability in the general election, however, as polls have shown him underperforming Cornyn, even trailing hypothetical Democratic opponents.[ 13] [ 14] Wall Street Journal [ 15] [ 16]
All three candidates have jockeyed for the endorsement of Donald Trump, making their support for him and his agenda major parts of their campaign platforms, but Trump has not endorsed any of them as of February 2026.[ 17] [ 18] [ 19] Islamophobic sentiment in their advertisements and actions, with Cornyn and Paxton specifically targeting theEPIC City development inCollin County with investigations and lawsuits.[ 20] [ 21] [ 22]
Candidates
Declared
Withdrawn
Endorsements John Cornyn
Executive branch officials U.S. senators John Barrasso ,Senate Majority Whip (2025–present) fromWyoming (2007–present)[ 36] Marsha Blackburn ,Tennessee (2019–present)[ 36] Tom Cotton ,Arkansas (2015–present)[ 36] Bill Hagerty ,Tennessee (2021–present)[ 37] Rand Paul ,Kentucky (2011–present)[ 36] Pete Ricketts ,Nebraska (2023–present)[ 38] Rick Scott ,Florida (2019–present)[ 37] Tim Scott ,South Carolina (2013–present)[ 39] John Thune ,Senate Majority Leader (2025–present) fromSouth Dakota (2005–present)[ 40] Tommy Tuberville ,Alabama (2021–present)[ 36] U.S. representatives Bill Archer , formerTX-07 (1971–2001)[ 41] Henry Bonilla , formerTX-23 (1993–2007)[ 41] Kevin Brady , formerTX-08 (1997–2023)[ 41] Michael Burgess , formerTX-26 (2003–2025)[ 41] Quico Canseco , formerTX-23 (2011–2013)[ 41] Mike Conaway , formerTX-11 (2005–2021)[ 41] John Culberson , formerTX-07 (2001–2019)[ 41] Tom DeLay , formerHouse Majority Leader (2003–2005) fromTX-22 (1985–2006)[ 41] Jake Ellzey ,TX-06 (2021–present)[ 42] Bill Flores , formerTX-17 (2011–2021)[ 41] Craig Goldman ,TX-12 (2025–present)[ 43] Jeb Hensarling , formerTX-05 (2003–2019)[ 41] French Hill ,AR-02 (2015–present)[ 36] Kenny Marchant , formerTX-24 (2005–2021)[ 41] Michael McCaul ,TX-10 (2005–present)[ 33] Pete Olson , formerTX-22 (2009–2021)[ 41] Ted Poe , formerTX-02 (2005–2019)[ 41] Lamar Smith , formerTX-21 (1987–2019)[ 41] Mac Thornberry , formerTX-13 (1995–2021)[ 41] Statewide officials State legislators Rodney Anderson , formerstate representative from the105th district (2015–2019) and106th district (2011–2013)[ 44] Giovanni Capriglione ,state representative from the98th district (2013–present)[ 44] Myra Crownover , formerstate representative from the64th district (2000–2017)[ 33] John Cyrier , formerstate representative from the17th district (2015–2023)[ 33] Drew Darby ,state representative from the72nd district (2007–present)[ 45] Charlie Geren ,state representative from the99th district (2003–present) and89th district (2001–2003)[ 44] Larry Gonzales , formerstate representative from the52nd district (2011–2018)[ 33] Brooks Landgraf , formerstate representative from the81st district (2015–present)[ 34] Dee Margo , formerstate representative from the78th district (2011–2013) andmayor of El Paso (2017–2021)[ 46] Four Price , formerstate representative from the87th district (2011–2025)[ 45] John Raney , formerstate representative from the14th district (2011–2025)[ 33] Carl Tepper ,state representative from the84th district (2023–present)[ 45] Terry Wilson ,state representative from the20th district (2017–present)[ 33] Local officials Labor unions Organizations Newspapers Ken Paxton
U.S. representatives State legislators Individuals Organizations Wesley Hunt
U.S. representatives Organizations Declined to endorse
U.S. senators U.S. representatives
Fundraising Italics indicate withdrawn candidate
Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2025[ A] Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand Virgil Bierschwale (R) $9,918 $9,657 $261 John Cornyn (R) $10,030,736 $4,802,390 $5,861,807 Wesley Hunt (R) $1,371,508 $2,343,552 $1,515,133 Gurlez Khan (R) $9,342 $9,861 $0 Ken Paxton (R) $5,320,191 $1,654,744 $3,665,447 Tony Schmoker (R) $2,500 $3,107 $0 Source:Federal Election Commission [ 71]
Polling Aggregate polls
Source of poll Dates Dates John Wesley Ken Other/Undecided[ a] Margin 270toWin [ 72] January 15, 2025 – February 9, 2026 February 9, 2026 27.7% 19.7% 30.7% 25.2% Paxton +3.0% RealClearPolitics [ 73] December 1, 2025 - February 3, 2026 February 9, 2026 27.8% 19.5% 29.8% 22.9% Paxton +2.0% Decision Desk HQ [ 74] May 11, 2025 – February 3, 2026 February 12, 2026 25.4% 20.0% 29.8% 24.8% Paxton +4.4% Race to the WH [ 75] January 4, 2025 – February 2, 2026 February 6, 2026 26.1% 21.8% 27.2% 24.9% Paxton +1.1% Average 26.8% 20.3% 29.4% 24.5% Paxton +2.6%
Poll source Date(s) Sample[ b] Margin John Wesley Ken Other Undecided Pulse Decision Science (R)[ 76] [ B] February 8–11, 2026 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 27% 15% 36% – 22% Pulse Decision Science (R)[ 77] [ C] February 1–3, 2026 801 (LV) ± 3.5% 26% 18% 34% – 22% J.L. Partners (R)[ 78] January 31 – February 3, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 26% 26% 27% – 21% Ragnar Research Partners (R)[ 79] [ D] January 29 – February 1, 2026 – (LV) – 31% 24% 29% – 16% University of Houston /YouGov [ 80] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 31% 17% 38% 2%[ c] 12% Emerson College [ 81] January 10–12, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.1% 26% 16% 27% 2% 29% Deep Root Analytics (R)[ 79] [ D] January 5–11, 2026 – (LV) – 29% 19% 26% – 26% Pulse Decision Science (R)[ 82] [ E] December 14–17, 2025 809 (LV) ± 3.4% 38% 16% 38% – 8% 1892 Polling (R)[ 79] [ D] December 4, 2025 – (LV) – 28% 19% 29% – 24% McLaughlin & Associates (R)[ 83] [ F] December 1–4, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 27% 28% 33% – 12% J.L. Partners[ 84] December 1–3, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 24% 24% 29% – 23% co/efficient (R)[ 85] December 1–3, 2025 1,022 (LV) ± 3.07% 28% 19% 27% – 26% Public Policy Polling (D)[ 86] [ G] December 1–2, 2025 527 (LV) – 22% 22% 32% – 24% Peak Insights (R)[ 87] [ D] November 20–25, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 35% 18% 33% – 14% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 88] [ H] November 21–22, 2025 857 (LV) ± 3.3% 25% 26% 36% – 13% Ragnar Research Partners (R)[ 89] [ I] November 13–16, 2025 758 (LV) ± 4.0% 32% 21% 31% – 16% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] November 4–6, 2025 811 (LV) ± 4.6% 27% 26% 34% – 13% Harper Polling (R)[ 91] [ J] October 28–30, 2025 614 (LV) ± 4.0% 26% 24% 25% – 25% Hunt Research (R)[ 43] [ 92] October 6–10, 2025 1,097 (LV) ± 2.96% 24% 19% 28% – 29% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] October 4–6, 2025 – (V) – 31% 24% 34% – 11% Peak Insights (R)[ 87] [ D] October 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 34% 19% 36% – 11% University of Houston /Texas Southern University [ 93] September 19 – October 1, 2025 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 33% 22% 34% – 11% Deep Root Analytics (R)[ 94] [ D] September 22–28, 2025 1,142 (LV) – 33% 21% 28% – 18% UT Tyler [ 95] September 17–24, 2025 492 (RV) ± 3.1% 29% 14% 31% – 26% Ragnar Research Partners (R)[ 96] [ K] September 20–22, 2025 760 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 17% 31% – 20% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 97] [ H] September 14–16, 2025 842 (V) – 28% 23% 38% – 11% 38% 23% 39% – – Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] August 24–26, 2025 – (V) – 28% 23% 38% – 11% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] August 4–6, 2025 – (V) – 29% 23% 37% – 11% Texas Southern University [ 98] August 6–12, 2025 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 30% 22% 35% – 13% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] July 16–18, 2025 – (V) – 32% 15% 38% 15% G1 Research[ 99] Late June 2025 – – 28% 17% 41% – 14% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] June 22–23, 2025 – (V) – 28% 17% 41% – 14% Pulse Decision Science (R)[ 100] [ 101] [ E] June 17–22, 2025 806 (LV) ± 3.5% 32% 13% 49% – 7% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] June 8–10, 2025 – (V) – 28% 12% 47% – 13% YouGov /Texas Southern University [ 102] May 9–19, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 27% 15% 34% – 24% Quantus Insights (R)[ 103] [ 104] [ L] May 11–13, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.4% 38% 16% 46% – – American Opportunity Alliance (R)[ 105] [ 106] April 29 – May 1, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 27% 14% 43% – 16% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] April 29–30, 2025 – (V) – 27% 18% 40% – 15% The Tarrance Group (R)[ 107] [ I] April 27 – May 1, 2025 – – 34% 19% 44% – – Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] April 15–17, 2025 – (V) – 26% 18% 42% – 14% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] March 23–25, 2025 – (V) – 26% 13% 46% – 15%
Hypothetical polling
John Cornyn vs. Ken Paxton Poll source Date(s) Sample[ b] Margin John Ken Other Undecided J.L. Partners (R)[ 78] January 31 – February 3, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 41% – 19% University of Houston /YouGov [ 80] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 40% 51% – 9% McLaughlin & Associates (R)[ 83] [ F] December 1–4, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 40% 44% – 12% Public Policy Polling (D)[ 86] [ G] December 1–2, 2025 527 (LV) – 34% 44% – 22% Ragnar Research Partners (R)[ 89] [ I] November 13–16, 2025 758 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 41% – 14% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] November 4–6, 2025 811 (LV) ± 4.6% 38% 46% – 16% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] October 4–6, 2025 – (V) – 43% 46% – 11% University of Houston /Texas Southern University [ 93] September 19 – October 1, 2025 576 (RV) ± 4.1% 44% 43% – 13% UT Tyler [ 95] September 17–24, 2025 493 (RV) – 39% 37% – 23% Ragnar Research Partners (R)[ 96] [ K] September 20–22, 2025 – (V) ± 3.6% 39% 39% – 22% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] September 14–16, 2025 – (V) – 44% 44% – 12% Texas Public Opinion Research[ 109] August 27–29, 2025 320 (RV) – 32% 26% 13%[ d] 29% co/efficient (R)[ 110] August 25–27, 2025 818 (LV) ± 3.4% 36% 39% – 25% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] August 24–26, 2025 – (V) – 41% 48% – 11% Echelon Insights[ 111] August 21–24, 2025 515 (LV) ± 4.5% 37% 42% – 21% Emerson College [ 112] August 11–12, 2025 491 (RV) ± 4.4% 30% 29% 5%[ e] 36% Texas Southern University [ 98] August 6–12, 2025 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 39% 44% – 17% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] August 4–6, 2025 – (V) – 42% 45% – 13% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] July 16–18, 2025 – (V) – 36% 47% – 17% Pulse Decision Science (R)[ 100] [ 101] [ E] June 17–22, 2025 806 (LV) ± 3.5% 38% 57% – 5% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] June 8–10, 2025 – (V) – 33% 49% – 18% UT Tyler [ 113] May 28 – June 7, 2025 538 (RV) – 34% 44% – 22% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 114] [ 115] [ M] June 6–8, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 33% 49% – 18% UpONE Insights (R)[ 116] [ 117] [ N] May 27–28, 2025 600 (V) ± 4.0% 28% 50% – 21% YouGov /Texas Southern University [ 102] May 9–19, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 34% 43% – 23% Quantus Insights (R)[ 103] [ 104] [ L] May 11–13, 2025 600 (RV) ± 4.4% 39% 52% – 9% American Opportunity Alliance (R)[ 105] [ 106] April 29 – May 1, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 35% 52% – 13% The Tarrance Group (R)[ 107] [ I] April 27 – May 1, 2025 – – 40% 56% – – Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] April 29–30, 2025 – (V) – 33% 48% – 19% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] April 15–17, 2025 – (V) – 33% 50% – 17% Internal Republican Party poll[ 118] Mid–April 2025 605 (V) – 33% 50% – 17% Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 90] [ H] March 23–25, 2025 – (V) – 35% 52% – 13% Lake Research Partners (D)/[ 119] [ O] March 7–10, 2025 – (RV) – 27% 38% 19%[ f] 16% Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[ 120] January 28 – February 2, 2025 – (V) – 28% 53% – 19% Victory Insights (R)[ 121] January 4–6, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 34% 42% – 25% CWS Research (R)[ 122] [ P] July 9–10, 2022 1,918 (RV) ± 2.2% 31% 51% – 18%
John Cornyn vs. Wesley Hunt Ken Paxton vs. Wesley Hunt John Cornyn vs. Ronny Jackson vs. Chip Roy Poll source Date(s) Sample[ b] Margin John Ronny Chip Undecided CWS Research (R)[ 123] [ P] October 19–23, 2022 823 (RV) ± 3.4% 35% 14% 18% 33%
John Cornyn vs. "Someone Else" Poll source Date(s) Sample[ b] Margin John Someone Undecided Victory Insights (R)[ 121] January 4–6, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 35% 40% 25%
Results
Democratic primary
Background Democrats, who have not won a statewide election in Texas since1994 , see an opening in the state due to the bitter and divisive primary fight in the Republican side, a potential midterm backlash against theTrump administration , negative approval ratings for President Trump in Texas as well as recent polling numbers showing competitive matchups.[ 124] [ 125] [ 126] [ 127]
Colin Allred , who unsuccessfully ran against incumbent Republican senatorTed Cruz in2024 , exited the race on December 8, 2025, which precipitatedJasmine Crockett 's entry into the race.[ 128]
Campaign Crockett and Talarico participated in a debate on January 24, 2026, hosted by theAFL-CIO inGeorgetown . During the debate, both candidates expressed similar policy positions, attacking each other very little. Crockett defended her "firebrand" campaigning style as necessary to meet the political moment, while Talarico expressed a more mild approach and emphasized electability against Ken Paxton.[ 129] [ 130] Black voters, Democrats' strongest voter base, and Talarico performing best amongWhite andLatino voters, demographics which hold far moreswing voters .[ 131]
Candidates
Declared
Withdrawn
Declined
Endorsements Jasmine Crockett
U.S. representatives Labor unions Organizations Newspapers James Talarico
U.S. senators U.S. representatives State officials State legislators Individuals Organizations Newspapers Colin Allred(withdrawn)
Executive branch officials U.S. representatives State legislators Declined to endorse
U.S. representatives Labor unions
Debates and forums
2026 Texas Democratic Senate primary debates No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn Crockett Hassan Talarico 1[ 160] January 24, 2026 TexasAFL-CIO Daniel Marin KXAN-TV P N P
Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2025 Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand Jasmine Crockett (D) $6,531,174 $910,538 $5,620,637 James Talarico (D) $13,152,583 $6,012,427 $7,140,156 Source:Federal Election Commission [ 71]
Polling Aggregate polls
Source of poll Dates Dates Jasmine James Other/Undecided[ i] Margin 270toWin [ 72] January 15 – February 9, 2026 February 9, 2026 42.5% 43.0% 14.5% Talarico +0.5% RealClearPolitics [ 161] January 10–31, 2026 February 9, 2026 41.0% 41.0% 18.0%[ j] Tied VoteHub[ 162] September 19 – January 31, 2026 February 9, 2026 42.1% 38.8% 19.1% Crockett +3.3% Average 41.9% 40.9% 17.2% Crockett +1.0%
Poll source Date(s) Sample[ b] Margin Colin Jasmine James Other Undecided University of Houston /YouGov [ 80] January 20–31, 2026 550 (LV) ± 4.2% – 47% 39% 2%[ k] 12% Slingshot Strategies (D)[ 163] [ O] January 14–21, 2026 1,290 (LV) ± 3.7% – 38% 37% 4%[ l] 21% HIT Strategies (D)[ 164] [ Q] January 6–15, 2026 1,005 (LV) ± 3.2% – 46% 33% – 21% Emerson College [ 81] January 10–12, 2026 413 (LV) ± 4.8% – 38% 47% <1%[ m] 15% Texas Southern University [ 165] December 9–11, 2025 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% – 51% 43% – 6% December 8, 2025 Allred withdraws from the race University of Houston /Texas Southern University [ 93] September 19 – October 1, 2025 478 (RV) ± 4.5% – 52% 34% – 14% 46% – 42% – 8% Impact Research (D)[ 166] [ R] October 23–29, 2025 836 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% – 48% – 9% UT Tyler [ 95] September 17–24, 2025 377 (RV) – 42% – 30% 4%[ n] 24% Public Policy Polling (D)[ 167] September 3–4, 2025 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% – 32% – 27% Emerson College [ 112] August 11–12, 2025 370 (RV) ± 5.1% 58% – – 8%[ o] 34% Texas Southern University [ 98] August 6–12, 2025 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 50% – 43% – 7%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s) Sample[ b] Margin Colin James Joaquin Jasmine Beto Other Undecided University of Houston /Texas Southern University [ 93] September 19 – October 1, 2025 478 (RV) ± 4.5% 13% 25% – 31% 25% – 6% 34% – – 57% – – 9% 38% – – – 55% – 7% – – – 51% 41% – 8% 39% – – 54% – 7% UT Tyler [ 95] September 17–24, 2025 377 (RV) – 25% – 13% 29% 31% 2%[ p] – Texas Public Opinion Research[ 109] August 27–29, 2025 270 (RV) – 13% 7% 4% 26% 27% 5%[ q] 18% Texas Southern University [ 98] August 6–12, 2025 1,500 (LV) ± 2.5% 38% – – – 58% – 4% 52% – – 41% – – 7% NRSC (R)[ 168] July 4–7, 2025 566 (LV) ± 3.0% 20% – 13% 35% 13% – 18%
Results
Third-party and independent candidates
Candidates
Declared
General election
Predictions
Polling John Cornyn vs. Jasmine Crockett
Ken Paxton vs. Jasmine Crockett
Wesley Hunt vs. Jasmine Crockett
John Cornyn vs. James Talarico
Poll source Date(s) Sample[ b] Margin John James Other Undecided University of Houston /YouGov [ 80] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 44% 43% 5%[ r] 8% Emerson College [ 81] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 44% – 9% Ragnar Research Partners (R)[ 177] November 12–17, 2025 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 40% – 14% University of Houston /Texas Southern University [ 93] September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 48% 45% – 7% UT Tyler [ 95] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 35% 7%[ u] 17%
Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico
Poll source Date(s) Sample[ b] Margin Ken James Other Undecided University of Houston /YouGov [ 80] January 20–31, 2026 1,502 (LV) ± 2.5% 46% 44% 3%[ t] 7% Emerson College [ 81] January 10–12, 2026 1,165 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 46% – 9% Ragnar Research Partners (R)[ 177] November 12–17, 2025 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 44% – 12% University of Houston /Texas Southern University [ 93] September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 49% 46% – 5% UT Tyler [ 95] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 37% 8%[ v] 17%
Wesley Hunt vs. James Talarico
Hypothetical polling
John Cornyn vs. Colin Allred
Poll source Date(s) Sample[ b] Margin John Colin Other Undecided Ragnar Research Partners (R)[ 177] November 12–17, 2025 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 40% – 13% University of Houston /Texas Southern University [ 93] September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 48% 46% – 6% UT Tyler [ 95] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 37% 7%[ u] 13% Emerson College [ 112] August 11–12, 2025 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 38% – 17% YouGov /Texas Southern University [ 102] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 44% – 8%
Ken Paxton vs. Colin Allred
Poll source Date(s) Sample[ b] Margin Ken Colin Other Undecided Ragnar Research Partners (R)[ 177] November 12–17, 2025 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 44% – 12% University of Houston /Texas Southern University [ 93] September 19 – October 1, 2025 1,650 (RV) ± 2.41% 48% 47% – 5% UT Tyler [ 95] September 17–24, 2025 1,032 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 41% 8%[ v] 13% GBAO (D)[ 178] [ S] August 13–18, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 49% – 4% 49% 50% [ x] – – Emerson College [ 112] August 11–12, 2025 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 41% – 13% YouGov /Texas Southern University [ 102] May 9–19, 2025 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 46% – 6% Brad Parscale (R)[ 118] Mid–April 2025 >1,000 (LV) – 37% 52% – 11%
Wesley Hunt vs. Colin Allred
John Cornyn vs. Beto O'Rourke
Ken Paxton vs. Beto O'Rourke
Wesley Hunt vs. Beto O'Rourke
John Cornyn vs. Joaquin Castro
Ken Paxton vs. Joaquin Castro
Wesley Hunt vs. Joaquin Castro
John Cornyn vs. Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s) Sample[ b] Margin John Generic Undecided Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 114] [ 115] [ M] June 6–8, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 35% 23%
Ken Paxton vs. Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s) Sample[ b] Margin Ken Generic Undecided Stratus Intelligence (R)[ 114] [ 115] [ M] June 6–8, 2025 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 42% 19%
Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s) Sample[ b] Margin Generic Generic Other Undecided Texas Public Opinion Research[ 109] August 27–29, 2025 843 (RV) ± 4.6% 48% 43% 9%[ y] –
Notes ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined. ^a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z Key: ^ Sara Canady with 1%; "4 others" with <1% ^ "Would not vote in that race" with 9%; "Prefer not to answer" with 4% ^ "Someone else" with 5% ^ Would not Vote with 8%; Other with 7%; Refused with 4% ^ County executive ^ Diego Bernal ,state representative from the123rd district (2015–present)[ 148] John Bryant ,state representative from the114th district (2023–present)[ 148] John Bucy III ,state representative from the136th district (2019–present)[ 148] Elizabeth Campos ,state representative from the119th district (2021–present)[ 148] Terry Canales ,state representative from the40th district (2013–present)[ 149] Sheryl Cole ,state representative from the46th district (2019–present)[ 149] Philip Cortez ,state representative from the117th district (2017–present)[ 148] Aicha Davis ,state representative from the109th district (2025–present)[ 148] Lulu Flores ,state representative from the51st district (2023–present)[ 148] Erin Gamez ,state representative from the38th district (2022–present)[ 148] Josey Garcia ,state representative from the124th district (2023–present)[ 148] Linda Garcia ,state representative from the107th district (2025–present)[ 148] Cassandra Hernandez ,state representative from the115th district (2025–present)[ 148] Donna Howard ,state representative from the48th district (2006–present)[ 148] Ann Johnson ,state representative from the134th district (2021–present)[ 148] Christian Manuel ,state representative from the22nd district (2023–present)[ 149] Mando Martinez ,state representative from the39th district (2005–present)[ 148] Terry Meza ,state representative from the105th district (2019–present)[ 148] Christina Morales ,state representative from the145th district (2019–present)[ 148] Eddie Morales ,state representative from the74th district (2021–present)[ 148] Penny Morales Shaw ,state representative from the148th district (2021–present)[ 148] Ray Lopez ,state representative from the125th district (2019–present)[ 148] Claudia Ordaz ,state representative from the79th district (2023–present)[ 148] Mary Ann Perez ,state representative from the144th district (2017–present)[ 148] Vincent Perez ,state representative from the77th district (2025–present)[ 148] Ramon Romero Jr. ,state representative from the90th district (2015–present)[ 148] Lauren Ashley Simmons ,state representative from the146th district (2025–present)[ 149] Armando Walle ,state representative from the140th district (2009–present)[ 148] Erin Zwiener ,state representative from the45th district (2019–present)[ 148] ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined. ^ Ahmad Hassan with 1.5% ^ Ahmad Hassan with 2% ^ "Would not vote in that race" with 4% ^ Hassan at <1% ^ "Someone else" with 4% ^ Morgul with 4%; Swanson with 3%; Virts with 1% ^ "Refused" with 2% ^ "Would not vote in that race" with 5% ^a b Ted Brown (L) with 5% ^ Ted Brown (L) with 4% ^a b c Ted Brown (L) with 3% ^a b "Someone else" with 7% ^a b "Someone else" with 8% ^a b "Someone else" with 6% ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate ^ "Someone else" with 9% Partisan clients
^ Some candidates may have not published fundraising totals as of the filing deadline ^ Poll sponsored by Paxton's campaign ^ Poll sponsored by Lone Star PAC, which supports Paxton ^a b c d e f Poll sponsored by Texans for a Conservative Majority PAC, which supports Cornyn ^a b c Poll commissioned by a Paxton-allied super PAC. ^a b c d Poll sponsored by Standing For Texas, who support Hunt[ 108] ^a b c Poll sponsored by the Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate ^a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w Poll commissioned by a pro-Hunt group ^a b c d Poll sponsored by theSenate Leadership Fund , which supports Cornyn ^ Poll sponsored by Hunt's campaign ^a b Poll commissioned byOne Nation , which supports Cornyn ^a b Poll sponsored by Trending Politics, a conservative news website ^a b c Poll commissioned by the Conservative Policy Project ^ Poll sponsored by the Educational Freedom Institute ^a b Poll sponsored by Texas Public Opinion Research ^a b Poll conducted for the Defend Texas Liberty PAC ^ Poll sponsored by Crockett's campaign ^ Poll sponsored by Talarico's campaign ^ Poll sponsored by Allred's campaign
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RetrievedSeptember 22, 2025 . ^ Garcia, Berenice (December 18, 2025)."Texas Democratic candidates unite in the Rio Grande Valley to court Latino voters" .The Texas Tribune . RetrievedDecember 18, 2025 . ^ "Matt Rogers told Las Culturistas listeners not to support Jasmine Crockett" .Out (magazine) . RetrievedJanuary 10, 2026 .^ "In Senate bid, Talarico models the leadership this moment demands | Endorsement" .Austin American-Statesman . February 10, 2026. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2026 .^ "Do you want to win or not? Democrats should make Talarico their Senate candidate | Endorsement" .Houston Chronicle . February 3, 2026. RetrievedFebruary 3, 2026 .^ "March 2026 Primary Election Endorsements for the Austin Area • The Austin Chronicle" .The Austin Chronicle . February 12, 2026. RetrievedFebruary 14, 2026 .^ "Black leaders back Allred as Talarico's crowds challenge his lead in Democratic race for U.S. Senate" .WFAA . October 8, 2025. 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RetrievedFebruary 7, 2026 .^ "They all want to win: New poll shows how Democratic primary voters are weighing electability and turnout in the Texas Senate race" .Texas Public Opinion Research . January 29, 2026. RetrievedJanuary 29, 2026 .^ Fink, Jack (January 21, 2026)."In Texas Senate race, Crockett campaign says she is best candidate to reassemble Democratic base and expand the electorate in general election" .CBS News . RetrievedJanuary 22, 2026 . ^ Adams, Michael O.; Jones, Mark P. (December 12, 2025)."The 2026 Texas Democratic U.S. Senate Primary" (PDF) .Texas Southern University . RetrievedDecember 12, 2025 . ^ Hogan, Matt; Cuevas, Mayra; Ortiz, Paola (November 7, 2025)."Poll Shows Talarico Surging into Lead in Texas Senate Democratic Primary" .Impact Research . RetrievedNovember 7, 2025 . ^ Stanton, Zack (September 7, 2025)."Playbook: Trump's 'Apocalypse Now' moment" .Politico . RetrievedSeptember 7, 2025 . ^ Mordowanec, Nick (July 10, 2025)."Jasmine Crockett's Chances of Winning Texas Senate Primary—Poll" .Newsweek . RetrievedJuly 10, 2025 . ^a b c d e Gunzburger, Ron."Politics1 – Online Guide to Texas Elections, Candidates & Politics" .politics1.com . RetrievedDecember 11, 2025 . ^a b c d e "Sen. Nathan Johnson announces bid for Texas attorney general" .KXAN Austin . July 15, 2025. Archived fromthe original on August 27, 2025. RetrievedDecember 11, 2025 .^ Doonan, David (May 27, 2025)."University assistant professor announces his candidacy to represent the Green Party in 2026 Senate election" .Green Party of the United States (Press release). RetrievedJune 7, 2025 . ^ "Senate Ratings" .Inside Elections . RetrievedJanuary 14, 2025 .^ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings" .Cook Political Report . RetrievedFebruary 11, 2025 .^ "2026 Senate ratings" .Sabato's Crystal Ball . RetrievedFebruary 13, 2025 .^ "2026 Senate Forecast" .Race to the WH . RetrievedMarch 19, 2025 .^a b Thomas, Sumati (December 2, 2025)."Texas Senate Early Findings 2026" .Change Research . RetrievedDecember 2, 2025 . ^a b c d Perkins, Chris (November 19, 2025)."Texas Statewide Survey" .Ragnar Research Partners . RetrievedNovember 19, 2025 . ^ "Allred for Texas State of the Race Memo – August 2025" (PDF) .GBAO . August 22, 2025. RetrievedAugust 22, 2025 .
External links Official campaign websites
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