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2026 United States Senate election in Alaska

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For related races, see2026 United States Senate elections.

2026 United States Senate election in Alaska
← 2020
November 3, 2026
2032 →
IncumbentU.S. senator

Dan Sullivan
Republican



Elections in Alaska

The2026 United States Senate election in Alaska will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent the state ofAlaska. Ajungle primary election will be held on August 18, 2026, from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election, which will be conducted underranked-choice voting.

IncumbentRepublican SenatorDan Sullivan, having beenre-elected in 2020 with 53.9% of the vote,[1] has declared his re-election bid. FormerU.S. Representative fromAlaska's at-large congressional districtMary Peltola is also running for this seat.[2]

Alaska has been represented in the U.S. Senate exclusively by Republicans since 2015, and has not voted for a Democrat for president since1964. Peltola is the only Democrat to have won a statewide election in Alaska sinceMark Begich was elected to the U.S. Senate in2008.

Candidates

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Republican Party

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Declared

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Filed paperwork

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  • Christopher Miklos[4]

Democratic Party

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Declared

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Green Party

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Declared

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Independents

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Filed paperwork

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Primary election

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Under Alaska's voting system, all candidates, regardless of party, will run on the same primary ballot. The top four candidates in the primary will advance to the general election, which will be conducted usingranked-choice voting.[citation needed]

Background

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Incumbent RepublicanDan Sullivan announced his run for re-election in early 2025. He was first elected in2014, defeatingMark Begich, the last Democrat to represent Alaska in theU.S. Senate. He was last re-elected in2020, prior to the implementation of Alaska's ranked-choice voting system.[3] Facing few obvious swing state targets to regain the Senate majority in2026, Democrats began looking towards more Republican-leaning states, such asOhio andTexas, as potential targets.[8] Among these states was Alaska, where Senate Democratic leaderChuck Schumer heavily courted former U.S. RepresentativeMary Peltola, the last Democrat to win any statewide election in Alaska, to run for Senate.[9] Peltola herself mulled between running for Senate andrunning for governor, but she ultimately decided to enter the Senate race in early 2026, setting up the race between her and Sullivan.[10][11]

Campaign

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Peltola's entry into the race immediately made the race competitive, according to most predictors.[12] She still faces significant hurdles, such as Sullivan's incumbency and lack of a prominent Republican challenger, the unpopularity of the national Democratic Party in Alaska, and a reduction in cross-party support.Lisa Murkowski, Alaska's other U.S. Senator and a notedmoderate Republican, had endorsed Peltola in her2022 and2024 bids for U.S. House, but she endorsed Sullivan, her colleague, in this race, instead.[13]

Endorsements

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Mary Peltola (D)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
Party officials
Organizations
Labor unions
Dan Sullivan (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Labor unions
Organizations

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Dan Sullivan (R)$7,365,342$2,262,211$5,834,874
Source:Federal Election Commission[24]

General election

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Predictions

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SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections[25]Lean RJanuary 12, 2026
The Cook Political Report[26]Lean RJanuary 12, 2026
Sabato's Crystal Ball[27]Lean RJanuary 29, 2026
Race To The WH[28]Tilt RFebruary 2, 2026

Polling

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Dan Sullivan vs. Mary Peltola

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Dan
Sullivan		Mary
Peltola		Other/Undecided
[a]		Margin
Race to the WH[29]August 8, 2025 – January 21, 2026February 6, 202647.1%47.4%5.5%Peltola +0.3%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Dan
Sullivan (R)		Mary
Peltola (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[30][A]January 16–17, 2026611 (V)–47%49%–4%
Alaska Survey Research[32]January 8–11, 20261,988 (LV)± 2.2%46%48%–6%
Data for Progress (D)[33]October 17–23, 2025823 (LV)± 3.0%45%46%5%[c]4%
Alaska Survey Research[34]October 10–15, 20251,708 (LV)–46%48%–6%
Alaska Survey Research[35]July 29 – August 1, 20251,623 (LV)± 2.5%47%42%–11%
Data for Progress (D)[36]July 21–27, 2025678 (LV)± 4.0%46%45%5%[d]4%
Alaska Survey Research[37]April 21–25, 20231,261 (LV)–41%44%–15%

Notes

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  1. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^"I would rank neither" with 5%
  4. ^"I would rank neither" with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. ^Poll sponsored by theDemocratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.[31]

References

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  1. ^Axelrod, Tal; Budryk, Zack (November 11, 2020)."Sullivan wins reelection in Alaska, giving Republicans 50 seats in Senate".The Hill.Archived from the original on December 24, 2020. RetrievedMay 23, 2024 – viaMSN.
  2. ^abNichols, Hans (January 12, 2026)."Mary Peltola plunges into Alaska Senate race".Axios.Archived from the original on January 13, 2026. RetrievedJanuary 12, 2026.
  3. ^abDowning, Suzanne (March 22, 2025)."Breaking: Sen. Dan Sullivan formally announces his campaign for reelection".Must Read Alaska.Archived from the original on April 18, 2025. RetrievedJune 4, 2025.
  4. ^"MIKLOS, CHRISTOPHER - Candidate overview".Federal Election Commission. January 1, 2019. RetrievedMay 18, 2025.
  5. ^Downing, Suzanne (July 21, 2025)."Democrats have their challenger for Sen. Dan Sullivan - and she works for an Alaska newspaper".Must Read Alaska.Archived from the original on October 7, 2025. RetrievedSeptember 19, 2025.
  6. ^Samuels, Iris (October 16, 2025)."Begich and Sullivan maintain fundraising efforts ahead of 2026 elections".Anchorage Daily News.Archived from the original on October 26, 2025. RetrievedOctober 25, 2025.
  7. ^"Alaska Division of Elections, Candidates". October 14, 2025.Archived from the original on November 19, 2024. RetrievedOctober 25, 2025.
  8. ^Neukam, Stephen (August 6, 2025)."Senate Democrats' top remaining targets for the 2026 midterms".Axios. RetrievedFebruary 5, 2026.
  9. ^Nichols, Hans; Neukam, Stephen (August 13, 2025)."Scoop: Schumer courts Peltola for Alaska Senate race".Axios. RetrievedFebruary 5, 2026.
  10. ^Herz, Nathaniel (July 15, 2025)."Dems are 'salivating' over a Peltola bid for Senate, but Alaska governor race could be 'wide open'".Alaska Beacon. RetrievedFebruary 5, 2026.
  11. ^Thiessen, Mark (January 12, 2026)."Democrat Mary Peltola, barrier-breaking ex-Alaska congresswoman, is challenging Republican Dan Sullivan in Senate race".PBS News. RetrievedFebruary 5, 2026.
  12. ^Kondik, Kyle (January 13, 2026)."Alaska Senate Race Comes Onto the Competitive Board with Peltola's Entry".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedFebruary 5, 2026.
  13. ^"Former Rep. Mary Peltola jumps into Alaska Senate race".POLITICO. January 12, 2026. RetrievedFebruary 5, 2026.
  14. ^Courtney, Wil (January 12, 2026)."Peltola Senate challenge draws national battle lines as Murkowski backs Sullivan".www.alaskasnewssource.com.Archived from the original on January 12, 2026. RetrievedJanuary 13, 2026.
  15. ^"Peltola's entrance in Alaska Senate race gives Democrats hope". RetrievedFebruary 9, 2026.
  16. ^"Mary Peltola announces run for U.S. Senate, challenging incumbent Dan Sullivan". RetrievedFebruary 6, 2026.
  17. ^Altimari, Daniela (January 12, 2026)."Former Rep. Mary Peltola enters Alaska Senate race in boost to Democrats".Roll Call.Archived from the original on January 12, 2026. RetrievedJanuary 12, 2026.
  18. ^@ProgressiveVic (January 18, 2026)."ENDORSEMENT ALERT! Here is our first 18 endorsements for this year's 2026 midterms" (Tweet). RetrievedJanuary 18, 2026 – viaTwitter.
  19. ^abBrooks, James; Smith, Corinne (January 12, 2026)."Mary Peltola announces run for Alaska U.S. Senate, challenging incumbent Dan Sullivan".Alaska Beacon.Archived from the original on January 13, 2026. RetrievedJanuary 13, 2026.
  20. ^"Trump endorses Alaska US Senator Dan Sullivan".Archived from the original on October 2, 2025. RetrievedSeptember 13, 2025.
  21. ^Ruskin, Liz (January 12, 2026)."Mary Peltola enters Alaska U.S. Senate race".Alaska Public Media.Archived from the original on January 12, 2026. RetrievedJanuary 12, 2026.
  22. ^"Begich exchanges endorsements with Sullivan who faces a familiar foe".Alaska Watchman. January 15, 2026. RetrievedJanuary 16, 2026.
  23. ^"22 Republicans endorsed by LGBT organization: Full list of names".Newsweek. February 3, 2026. RetrievedFebruary 4, 2026.
  24. ^"2026 Election United States Senate - Alaska".fec.gov.Federal Election Commission.Archived from the original on May 15, 2025. RetrievedJuly 17, 2025.
  25. ^Gonzales, Nathan L."Senate Ratings".Inside Elections.Archived from the original on January 20, 2021. RetrievedJanuary 12, 2026.
  26. ^"2026 CPR Senate Race ratings".Cook Political Report.Archived from the original on November 30, 2018. RetrievedJanuary 12, 2026.
  27. ^"2026 Senate".Sabato's Crystal Ball.Archived from the original on February 15, 2025. RetrievedJanuary 12, 2026.
  28. ^"2026 Senate Forecast".Race to the WH.Archived from the original on March 15, 2025. RetrievedMarch 19, 2025.
  29. ^"2026 Senate Polling Average".Race to the WH. RetrievedFebruary 8, 2026.
  30. ^"Alaska DSCC Jan 26 1 - Questionnaire".Public Policy Polling. January 21, 2026. RetrievedJanuary 22, 2026 – viaPolitico.
  31. ^Stanton, Andrew (January 21, 2026)."Mary Peltola chances of beating Dan Sullivan to flip Alaska from GOP—Polls".Newsweek. RetrievedJanuary 21, 2026.The poll surveyed 611 Alaska voters from January 16-17, 2026. Politico reported it was commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), an organization that supports Democratic Senate candidates across the country.
  32. ^Moore, Ivan."2025/26 Winter Alaska Survey Report"(PDF). Alaska Survey Research.Archived(PDF) from the original on January 14, 2026. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2026.
  33. ^Ruskin, Liz (October 31, 2025)."New poll shows Peltola neck-and-neck with Sullivan, if she were to run for U.S. Senate".Alaska Public Media.Archived from the original on November 1, 2025. RetrievedNovember 1, 2025.
  34. ^Sabbatini, Mark (October 22, 2025)."Poll: Peltola ahead of Sullivan in race that could decide control of US Senate".Juneau Independent.Archived from the original on November 13, 2025. RetrievedOctober 23, 2025.
  35. ^"2025 Summer Alaska Survey Report".Alaska Survey Research. August 22, 2025.Archived from the original on December 9, 2025. RetrievedAugust 25, 2025.
  36. ^"Mary Peltola Would Be Front-Runner for Alaska Governor".Data for Progress. August 8, 2025.Archived from the original on August 8, 2025. RetrievedAugust 8, 2025.
  37. ^Downing, Suzanne (May 2, 2023)."New poll says Rep. Mary Peltola could take Sen. Dan Sullivan in 2026".Must Read Alaska.Archived from the original on June 28, 2025. RetrievedMay 8, 2025.

External links

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