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2026 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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2026 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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The2026 United States House of Representatives elections will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect representatives from all 435congressional districts across each of the 50U.S. states. Five of the sixnon-voting delegates from theDistrict of Columbia and the inhabitedU.S. territories will also be elected (Puerto Rico's delegate, the Resident Commissioner, serves four year terms and was last elected in 2024). Numerousfederal, state, and local elections, including the2026 U.S. Senate elections, will also be held on this date.

Election ratings

[edit]

Latest published ratings for competitive seats

[edit]

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (theCook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

In total there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 218 are needed for a majority, while 290 seats are needed for a two-thirdssupermajority (if all members are sitting and voting).

Most election ratings use:

  • Tossup: no advantage
  • Tilt (sometimes used): very slight advantage
  • Lean: significant, but not overwhelming advantage
  • Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
  • Safe orSolid: outcome is nearly certain

The following are the latest published ratings for competitive seats.

DistrictCPVI
[1]
IncumbentLast result[2]Cook
Jan. 15,
2026
[3]
IE
Dec. 5,
2025
[4]
Sabato
Feb. 5,
2026
[5]
WH
Feb. 4,
2026
[6]
Alaska at-largeR+6Nick Begich III51.3% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely R
Arizona 1R+1David Schweikert
(retiring)
51.9% RTossupTossupTossupTossup
Arizona 2R+7Eli Crane54.5% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely R
Arizona 5R+10Andy Biggs
(retiring)
60.4% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Arizona 6EVENJuan Ciscomani50.0% RTossupTossupTossupTilt D(flip)
Arizona 8R+8Abraham Hamadeh56.5% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
California 1D+7[a]Vacant[b]65.3% RSolid D(flip)Solid D(flip)Safe D(flip)Likely D(flip)
California 3D+6[a]Ami Bera57.6% DSolid DSolid DLikely DSafe D
California 6D+5[a]New seatSolid D(flip)Likely D(flip)Safe D(flip)Safe D(flip)
California 13D+2[a]Adam Gray50.0% DLean DTilt DLean DLean D
California 21D+5[a]Jim Costa52.6% DLikely DLean DLikely DLikely D
California 22D+1[a]David Valadao53.4% RTossupTilt RTossupTossup
California 25D+4[a]Raul Ruiz56.3% DSolid DLikely DSafe DLikely D
California 40R+6[a]Young Kim and
Ken Calvert
55.3% R; 51.7% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
California 45D+3[a]Derek Tran50.1% DLean DTilt DLean DLikely D
California 47D+6[a]Dave Min51.4% DSolid DLikely DSafe DSafe D
California 48D+2[a]Darrell Issa59.3% RTossupTilt D(flip)TossupTilt D(flip)
Colorado 3R+5Jeff Hurd50.8% RLikely RSolid RLikely RLikely R
Colorado 4R+9Lauren Boebert53.6% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLean R
Colorado 5R+5Jeff Crank54.7% RLikely RLikely RLikely RTilt R
Colorado 8EVENGabe Evans49.0% RTossupTossupTossupTilt D(flip)
Connecticut 5D+3Jahana Hayes53.4% DSolid DSolid DLikely DSafe D
Florida 4R+5Aaron Bean57.3% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Florida 7R+5Cory Mills56.5% RLikely RLikely RSafe RLikely R
Florida 9D+4Darren Soto55.1% DSolid DSolid DLikely DLikely D
Florida 13R+5Anna Paulina Luna54.8% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely R
Florida 15R+5Laurel Lee56.2% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLean R
Florida 23D+2Jared Moskowitz52.4% DLean DLean DLean DLikely D
Georgia 1R+8Buddy Carter
(retiring)
62.0% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLean R
Illinois 8D+5Raja Krishnamoorthi
(retiring)
57.1% DSolid DSolid DSafe DLikely D
Illinois 17D+3Eric Sorensen54.4% DSolid DSolid DLikely DSafe D
Indiana 1D+1Frank J. Mrvan53.4% DLikely DLean DLean DLikely D
Iowa 1R+4Mariannette Miller-Meeks50.1% RTossupTossupTossupTossup
Iowa 2R+4Ashley Hinson
(retiring)
57.1% RLikely RLikely RLikely RTilt R
Iowa 3R+2Zach Nunn51.9% RTossupLean RTossupTossup
Kansas 3D+2Sharice Davids53.4% DSolid DSolid DLikely DSolid D
Kentucky 6R+7Andy Barr
(retiring)
63.0% RSolid RSolid RLikely RLean R
Maine 2R+4Jared Golden
(retiring)
50.3% DLikely R(flip)Likely R(flip)Lean R(flip)Lean R(flip)
Maryland 6D+3April McClain Delaney53.1% DSolid DSolid DLikely DSafe D
Michigan 4R+3Bill Huizenga55.1% RLikely RLean RLikely RLean R
Michigan 7EVENTom Barrett50.3% RTossupTossupTossupTossup
Michigan 8R+1Kristen McDonald Rivet51.2% DLean DLean DLean DLikely D
Michigan 10R+3John James
(retiring)
51.1% RLean RTilt RTossupTossup
Minnesota 1R+6Brad Finstad58.6% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLean R
Minnesota 2D+3Angie Craig
(retiring)
55.6% DLikely DLikely DLean DLean D
Minnesota 8R+7Pete Stauber58.0% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Missouri 2TBD[a]Ann Wagner54.5% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Missouri 5TBD[a]Emanuel Cleaver60.2% DSolid D[c]Solid R(flip)Safe R(flip)Likely R(flip)
Montana 1R+5Ryan Zinke52.3% RLikely RSolid RLikely RLean R
Nebraska 1R+6Mike Flood60.1% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Nebraska 2D+3Don Bacon
(retiring)
50.9% RLean D(flip)Tilt D(flip)Lean D(flip)Tilt D(flip)
Nevada 1D+2Dina Titus52.0% DLikely DLean DLikely DLean D
Nevada 3D+1Susie Lee51.4% DLean DLean DLean DLean D
Nevada 4D+2Steven Horsford52.7% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely D
New Hampshire 1D+2Chris Pappas
(retiring)
54.0% DLikely DLean DLean DLikely D
New Hampshire 2D+2Maggie Goodlander53.0% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely D
New Jersey 2R+5Jeff Van Drew58.0% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
New Jersey 5D+2Josh Gottheimer54.6% DSolid DSolid DLikely DLikely D
New Jersey 7EVENThomas Kean Jr.51.8% RTossupTilt RTossupTossup
New Jersey 9D+2Nellie Pou50.8% DLean DLean DLean DLikely D
New Mexico 2EVENGabe Vasquez52.1% DLean DTilt DLean DLean D
New York 1TBDNick LaLota55.2% RSolid RSolid RLikely RLikely R
New York 2TBDAndrew Garbarino59.8% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
New York 3TBDTom Suozzi51.8% DLean DLean DLean DLean D
New York 4TBDLaura Gillen51.1% DLean DTilt DLean DLikely D
New York 17TBDMike Lawler52.2% RTossupTossupLean RTossup
New York 18TBDPat Ryan57.2% DSolid DSolid DLikely DSafe D
New York 19TBDJosh Riley51.1% DLean DLean DLean DLikely D
New York 21TBDElise Stefanik
(retiring)
62.1% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
New York 22TBDJohn Mannion54.6% DSolid DSolid DLikely DSafe D
North Carolina 1R+5[a]Don Davis49.5% DLean R(flip)Tilt R(flip)Lean R(flip)Tossup
North Carolina 3R+6[a]Greg Murphy77.4% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
North Carolina 7R+7[a]David Rouzer58.6% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
North Carolina 9R+8[a]Richard Hudson56.3% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLean R
North Carolina 11R+5[a]Chuck Edwards56.8% RLikely RSolid RSafe RTilt R
Ohio 1R+1[a]Greg Landsman54.6% DTossupTossupTossupLean D
Ohio 7R+5[a]Max Miller51.1% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Ohio 9R+5[a]Marcy Kaptur48.3% DTossupTilt R(flip)Lean R(flip)Tossup
Ohio 10R+4[a]Mike Turner57.6% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Ohio 13D+2[a]Emilia Sykes51.1% DLean DLikely DLean DLikely D
Ohio 15R+5[a]Mike Carey56.5% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLean R
Oregon 4D+6Val Hoyle51.7% DSolid DSolid DLikely DSafe D
Oregon 5D+4Janelle Bynum47.7% DLikely DSolid DLikely DLikely D
Oregon 6D+6Andrea Salinas53.3% DSolid DSolid DLikely DSafe D
Pennsylvania 1D+1Brian Fitzpatrick56.4% RLikely RLean RLean RTossup
Pennsylvania 7R+1Ryan Mackenzie50.5% RTossupTossupTossupTossup
Pennsylvania 8R+4Rob Bresnahan50.8% RLean RTilt RLean RTossup
Pennsylvania 10R+3Scott Perry50.6% RTossupTilt RTossupTossup
Pennsylvania 17D+3Chris Deluzio53.9% DSolid DLikely DLikely DSafe D
South Carolina 1R+6Nancy Mace
(retiring)
58.3% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLean R
South Carolina 2R+7Joe Wilson59.7% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
South Carolina 5R+11Ralph Norman
(retiring)
63.6% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Tennessee 5R+8Andy Ogles56.8% RLikely RLikely RSolid RLikely R
Texas 9R+9[a]New seatSolid R(flip)Solid R(flip)Safe R(flip)Lean R(flip)
Texas 10R+10[a]Michael McCaul
(retiring)
63.6% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Texas 15R+7[a]Monica De La Cruz57.1% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely R
Texas 21R+10[a]Chip Roy
(retiring)
61.8% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Texas 22R+11[a]Troy Nehls
(retiring)
62.1% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Texas 28R+3[a]Henry Cuellar52.8% DLean DTilt DLean DTilt D
Texas 32R+8[a]New seatSolid R(flip)Solid R(flip)Safe R(flip)Likely R(flip)
Texas 34R+3[a]Vicente Gonzalez51.3% DTossupTossupTossupTossup
Texas 35R+4[a]New seatLikely R(flip)Likely R(flip)Likely R(flip)Tilt R(flip)
Texas 38R+10[a]Wesley Hunt
(retiring)
62.9% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Virginia 1R+3Rob Wittman56.4% RLean RLean RLikely RTilt R
Virginia 2EVENJen Kiggans50.8% RTossupTossupTossupTilt D(flip)
Virginia 5R+6John McGuire57.5% RSolid RSolid RSafe RTilt R
Virginia 7D+2Eugene Vindman51.3% DLean DLean DLikely DLikely D
Washington 3R+2Marie Gluesenkamp Perez51.7% DTossupTilt DLean DTilt D
Washington 4R+10Dan Newhouse
(retiring)
52.0% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Washington 5R+5Michael Baumgartner60.7% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Wisconsin 1R+2Bryan Steil54.1% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLean R
Wisconsin 3R+3Derrick Van Orden51.4% RTossupTilt RTossupTossup
Wisconsin 7R+11Tom Tiffany
(retiring)
63.6% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
OverallD – 211
R – 206
19 tossups
D – 212
R – 213
11 tossups
D – 211
R – 208
17 tossups
D – 215
R – 204
17 tossups

Party listings

[edit]

The two parties' campaign committees (theNational Republican Congressional Committee andDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee) published their own lists of targeted seats.

Republican-held seats

[edit]

On April 8, 2025, theDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee released their target seat list which included Republican-held seats and open seats.[7] On December 10, 2025, the list was revised adding four districts (CA-48, FL-15, NC-3, and NC-11) and removing two (CA-40 and CA-41).[8] The list was further revised on February 10, 2026, where five more districts (CO-5, MN-1, MT-1, SC-1, and VA-5) were added.[9]

  1. Alaska 1:Nick Begich III
  2. Arizona 1: Open seat
  3. Arizona 2:Eli Crane
  4. Arizona 6:Juan Ciscomani
  5. California 22:David Valadao
  6. California 48:Darrell Issa
  7. Colorado 5:Jeff Crank
  8. Colorado 8:Gabe Evans
  9. Florida 7:Cory Mills
  10. Florida 13:Anna Paulina Luna
  11. Florida 15:Laurel Lee
  12. Florida 27:Maria Elvira Salazar
  13. Iowa 1:Mariannette Miller-Meeks
  14. Iowa 2: Open seat
  15. Iowa 3:Zach Nunn
  16. Kentucky 6: Open seat
  17. Michigan 4:Bill Huizenga
  18. Michigan 7:Tom Barrett
  19. Michigan 10: Open seat
  20. Minnesota 1:Brad Finstad
  21. Missouri 2:Ann Wagner
  22. Montana 1:Ryan Zinke
  23. Nebraska 2: Open seat
  24. New Jersey 7:Thomas Kean Jr.
  25. New York 17:Mike Lawler
  26. North Carolina 3:Greg Murphy
  27. North Carolina 11:Chuck Edwards
  28. Ohio 7:Max Miller
  29. Ohio 10:Mike Turner
  30. Ohio 15:Mike Carey
  31. Pennsylvania 1:Brian Fitzpatrick
  32. Pennsylvania 7:Ryan Mackenzie
  33. Pennsylvania 8:Rob Bresnahan
  34. Pennsylvania 10:Scott Perry
  35. South Carolina 1: Open seat
  36. Tennessee 5:Andy Ogles
  37. Texas 15:Monica De La Cruz
  38. Virginia 1:Rob Wittman
  39. Virginia 2:Jen Kiggans
  40. Virginia 5:John McGuire
  41. Wisconsin 1:Bryan Steil
  42. Wisconsin 3:Derrick Van Orden

Democratic-held seats

[edit]

On March 17, 2025, theNational Republican Congressional Committee released their target seat list which included Democratic-held seats and open seats.[10] TheDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee also released its frontline members, which are bolded below, and the ones not bolded are seats targeted by the Republican committee but not in the Democratic committee frontline program:

  1. California 9:Josh Harder
  2. California 13:Adam Gray
  3. California 27:George Whitesides
  4. California 45:Derek Tran
  5. California 47:Dave Min
  6. Florida 9:Darren Soto
  7. Florida 23:Jared Moskowitz
  8. Indiana 1:Frank Mrvan
  9. Maine 2: Open seat
  10. Michigan 8:Kristen McDonald Rivet
  11. North Carolina 1:Don Davis
  12. New Hampshire 1: Open seat
  13. New Jersey 9:Nellie Pou
  14. New Mexico 2:Gabe Vasquez
  15. Nevada 1:Dina Titus
  16. Nevada 3:Susie Lee
  17. Nevada 4:Steven Horsford
  18. New York 3:Tom Suozzi
  19. New York 4:Laura Gillen
  20. New York 19:Josh Riley
  21. Ohio 9:Marcy Kaptur
  22. Ohio 13:Emilia Sykes
  23. Texas 28:Henry Cuellar
  24. Texas 34:Vicente Gonzalez
  25. Virginia 7:Eugene Vindman
  26. Washington 3:Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyzaaabacadaeafagahState enacted a new congressional map after the most recent publication of the Cook PVI.
  2. ^Doug LaMalfa died on January 6, 2026. Aspecial election using the current, strongly Republican boundaries will be held on August 4, 2026.
  3. ^Prediction was made before recent redistricting.

References

[edit]
  1. ^"2025 Cook PVI℠: District Map and List (119th Congress)".The Cook Political Report. April 3, 2025. RetrievedApril 3, 2025.
  2. ^"Election 2024: House results". CNN. RetrievedMarch 7, 2025.
  3. ^"2026 CPR House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. RetrievedNovember 14, 2025.
  4. ^"2026 House Ratings". Inside elections. RetrievedDecember 6, 2025.
  5. ^"2026 House Ratings".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedDecember 10, 2025.
  6. ^"The 2026 House Forecast".Race to the WH. RetrievedOctober 8, 2025.
  7. ^rice@dccc.org (April 8, 2025)."DCCC Announces 2026 Districts in Play".DCCC. RetrievedAugust 25, 2025.
  8. ^iwata@dccc.org (December 10, 2025)."DCCC Expands the Battlefield in 2026 with New Offensive Targets".DCCC. RetrievedDecember 11, 2025.
  9. ^iwata@dccc.org (February 10, 2026)."DCCC Announces Second Expansion of the House Battlefield for 2026 Cycle with 5 New Offensive Targets".DCCC. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2026.
  10. ^Marinella, Mike (March 17, 2025)."NRCC Targets 26 Offensive Seats to Expand House Majority".NRCC. RetrievedAugust 25, 2025.
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