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2026 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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2026 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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The2026 United States House of Representatives elections will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect representatives from all 435congressional districts across each of the 50U.S. states. Five of the sixnon-voting delegates from theDistrict of Columbia and the inhabitedU.S. territories will also be elected (Puerto Rico's delegate, the Resident Commissioner, serves four year terms and was last elected in 2024). Numerousfederal, state, and local elections, including the2026 U.S. Senate elections, will also be held on this date.

Election ratings

[edit]

Latest published ratings for competitive seats

[edit]

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The 82 seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. Of the remaining 353 seats, 166 are considered "safe" Democratic, and 187 "safe" Republican. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (theCook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

In total there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 218 are needed for a majority, while 290 seats are needed for a two-thirdssupermajority (if all members are sitting and voting).

Most election ratings use:

  • Tossup: no advantage
  • Tilt (sometimes used): very slight advantage
  • Lean: significant, but not overwhelming advantage
  • Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
  • Safe orSolid: outcome is nearly certain

The following are the latest published ratings for competitive seats.


DistrictCPVI
[1]
IncumbentLast result[2]Cook
Oct. 22,
2025
[3]
IE
Oct. 23,
2025
[4]
Sabato
Oct. 22,
2025
[5]
WH
Oct. 21,
2025
[6]
Alaska at-largeR+6Nick Begich III51.3% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLean R
Arizona 1R+1David Schweikert
(retiring)
51.9% RTossupTossupTossupTossup
Arizona 2R+7Eli Crane54.5% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely R
Arizona 5R+10Andy Biggs
(retiring)
60.4% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Arizona 6EVENJuan Ciscomani50.0% RTossupTossupTossupTossup
Arizona 8R+8Abe Hamadeh56.5% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
California 1R+12Doug LaMalfa65.3% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLean D(flip)[a]
California 3R+2Kevin Kiley55.5% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely D(flip)[a]
California 9D+1Josh Harder51.8% DLean DLean DLean DLikely D[a]
California 13R+1Adam Gray50.0% DTossupTossupTossupLean D[a]
California 21D+4Jim Costa52.6% DLikely DLean DLean DLikely D[a]
California 22R+1David Valadao53.4% RLean RLean RLean RTossup[a]
California 25D+3Raul Ruiz56.3% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely D[a]
California 27D+3George Whitesides51.3% DLean DLean DLean DLikely D[a]
California 40R+1Young Kim55.3% RLean RLean RLean RLikely R[a]
California 41R+2Ken Calvert51.7% RLean RLean RLean RSafe D(flip)[a]
California 45D+1Derek Tran50.1% DTossupTossupTossupLean D[a]
California 47D+3Dave Min51.4% DLean DTilt DLean DLikely D[a]
California 48R+7Darrell Issa59.3% RSolid RSolid RSafe RTossup[a]
California 49D+4Mike Levin52.2% DLikely DLean DLikely DSafe D[a]
Colorado 3R+5Jeff Hurd50.8% RLikely RSolid RLikely RLean R
Colorado 4R+9Lauren Boebert53.6% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLean R
Colorado 5R+5Jeff Crank54.7% RSolid RLikely RLikely RLean R
Colorado 8EVENGabe Evans49.0% RTossupTossupTossupTossup
Connecticut 5D+3Jahana Hayes53.4% DLikely DSolid DLikely DLikely D
Florida 4R+5Aaron Bean57.3% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Florida 7R+5Cory Mills56.5% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Florida 9D+4Darren Soto55.1% DSolid DSolid DLikely DLikely D
Florida 13R+5Anna Paulina Luna54.8% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely R
Florida 15R+5Laurel Lee56.2% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Florida 23D+2Jared Moskowitz52.4% DLean DLean DLean DLean D
Georgia 1R+8Buddy Carter
(retiring)
62.0% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Georgia 10R+11Mike Collins
(retiring)
63.1% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Illinois 8D+5Raja Krishnamoorthi
(retiring)
57.1% DSolid DSolid DSafe DLikely D
Illinois 17D+3Eric Sorensen54.4% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely D
Indiana 1D+1Frank J. Mrvan53.4% DLikely DLean DLean DLean D
Iowa 1R+4Mariannette Miller-Meeks50.1% RTossupTossupTossupTossup
Iowa 2R+4Ashley Hinson
(retiring)
57.1% RLikely RLikely RLikely RTilt R
Iowa 3R+2Zach Nunn51.9% RLean RLean RTossupTossup
Kansas 3D+2Sharice Davids53.4% DSolid DSolid DLikely DLikely D
Kentucky 6R+7Andy Barr
(retiring)
63.0% RSolid RSolid RLikely RLean R
Maine 2R+4Jared Golden50.3% DTossupTilt DTossupTilt R(flip)
Maryland 6D+3April McClain Delaney53.1% DSolid DSolid DLikely DLikely D
Michigan 3D+4Hillary Scholten53.7% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely D
Michigan 4R+3Bill Huizenga55.1% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLean R
Michigan 7EVENTom Barrett50.3% RTossupTossupTossupTossup
Michigan 8R+1Kristen McDonald Rivet51.2% DLean DTilt DLean DLean D
Michigan 10R+3John James
(retiring)
51.1% RLean RTilt RTossupTossup
Minnesota 1R+6Brad Finstad58.6% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Minnesota 2D+3Angie Craig
(retiring)
55.6% DLikely DLean DLean DLean D
Minnesota 8R+7Pete Stauber58.0% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Missouri 2TBD[b]Ann Wagner54.5% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Missouri 5TBD[b]Emanuel Cleaver60.2% DSafe DSolid R(flip)Safe R(flip)Likely R(flip)
Montana 1R+5Ryan Zinke52.3% RLikely RSolid RLikely RLean R
Nebraska 1R+6Mike Flood60.1% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Nebraska 2D+3Don Bacon
(retiring)
50.9% RLean D(flip)TossupLean D(flip)Tilt D(flip)
Nevada 1D+2Dina Titus52.0% DLikely DLean DLikely DLikely D
Nevada 2R+7Mark Amodei55.0% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Nevada 3D+1Susie Lee51.4% DLean DLean DLean DLean D
Nevada 4D+2Steven Horsford52.7% DLikely DLean DLikely DLikely D
New Hampshire 1D+2Chris Pappas
(retiring)
54.0% DLikely DLean DLean DLean D
New Hampshire 2D+2Maggie Goodlander53.0% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely D
New Jersey 2R+5Jeff Van Drew58.0% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
New Jersey 5D+2Josh Gottheimer54.6% DSolid DSolid DLikely DLikely D
New Jersey 7EVENThomas Kean Jr.51.8% RLean RTilt RTossupTossup
New Jersey 9D+2Nellie Pou50.8% DLean DLean DLean DLean D
New Jersey 11D+5Mikie Sherrill56.5% DSolid DSolid DSafe DLikely D
New Mexico 2EVENGabe Vasquez52.1% DTossupTilt DLean DTilt D
New York 1R+4Nick LaLota55.2% RSolid RSolid RLikely RLean R
New York 2R+6Andrew Garbarino59.8% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
New York 3EVENTom Suozzi51.8% DLean DLean DLean DTilt D
New York 4D+2Laura Gillen51.1% DTossupTilt DLean DLean D
New York 17D+1Mike Lawler52.2% RLean RTossupLean RTossup
New York 18D+2Pat Ryan57.2% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely D
New York 19D+1Josh Riley51.1% DLean DLean DLean DLean D
New York 22D+4John Mannion54.6% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely D
North Carolina 1TBD[b]Don Davis49.5% DLikely R(flip)Tilt R(flip)Likely R(flip)Tilt D
North Carolina 3TBD[b]Greg Murphy77.4% RLikely RSolid RLikely RSafe R
North Carolina 7R+7David Rouzer58.6% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
North Carolina 9R+8Richard Hudson56.3% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLean R
North Carolina 11R+5Chuck Edwards56.8% RLikely RSolid RSafe RLikely R
North Carolina 14R+8Tim Moore58.1% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Ohio 1D+3Greg Landsman54.6% DLikely DTBD[c]Lean DLikely D
Ohio 7R+5Max Miller51.1% RSolid RTBD[c]Safe RLikely R
Ohio 9R+3Marcy Kaptur48.3% DTossupTBD[c]TossupTossup
Ohio 10R+3Mike Turner57.6% RSolid RTBD[c]Safe RLikely R
Ohio 13EVENEmilia Sykes51.1% DTossupTBD[c]TossupLean D
Ohio 15R+4Mike Carey56.5% RSolid RTBD[c]Safe RLikely R
Oregon 4D+6Val Hoyle51.7% DSolid DSolid DLikely DSafe D
Oregon 5D+4Janelle Bynum47.7% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely D
Oregon 6D+6Andrea Salinas53.3% DSolid DSolid DLikely DSafe D
Pennsylvania 1D+1Brian Fitzpatrick56.4% RLikely RLikely RLean RTossup
Pennsylvania 7R+1Ryan Mackenzie50.5% RTossupTossupTossupTossup
Pennsylvania 8R+4Rob Bresnahan50.8% RLean RTilt RLean RTilt R
Pennsylvania 10R+3Scott Perry50.6% RTossupTilt RTossupTossup
Pennsylvania 17D+3Chris Deluzio53.9% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely D
South Carolina 1R+6Nancy Mace
(retiring)
58.3% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLean R
South Carolina 2R+7Joe Wilson59.7% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
South Carolina 5R+11Ralph Norman
(retiring)
63.6% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Tennessee 7R+10Vacant[d]59.5% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Texas 9TBD[b]New seatSolid R(flip)Solid R(flip)Safe R(flip)Lean R(flip)
Texas 10TBD[b]Michael McCaul
(retiring)
63.6% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Texas 15TBD[b]Monica De La Cruz57.1% RLikely RLikely RSafe RLikely R
Texas 21TBD[b]Chip Roy
(retiring)
61.8% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Texas 28TBD[b]Henry Cuellar52.8% DTossupTilt DTossupTossup
Texas 32TBD[b]New seatSolid R(flip)Solid R(flip)Safe R(flip)Likely R(flip)
Texas 34TBD[b]Vicente Gonzalez51.3% DLean R(flip)TossupLean R(flip)Tossup
Texas 35TBD[b]New seatLikely R(flip)Likely R(flip)Likely R(flip)Tilt R(flip)
Texas 38TBD[b]Wesley Hunt
(retiring)
62.9% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Utah 2R+10Celeste Maloy58.0% RSolid RSolid RSafe RTilt R[e]
Utah 3R+10Mike Kennedy66.4% RSolid RSolid RSafe RTossup[e]
Virginia 1R+3Rob Wittman56.4% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLean R
Virginia 2EVENJen Kiggans50.8% RLean RTossupTossupTossup
Virginia 5R+6John McGuire57.5% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Virginia 7D+2Eugene Vindman51.3% DLean DLean DLean DLean D
Virginia 10D+6Suhas Subramanyam52.3% DLikely DSolid DLikely DLikely D
Washington 3R+2Marie Gluesenkamp Perez51.7% DTossupTilt DLean DTilt D
Washington 5R+5Michael Baumgartner60.7% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
Washington 8D+3Kim Schrier54.1% DLikely DSolid DLikely DLikely D
Wisconsin 1R+2Bryan Steil54.1% RLikely RLikely RLikely RTilt R
Wisconsin 3R+3Derrick Van Orden51.4% RTossupTilt RTossupTossup
Wisconsin 7R+11Tom Tiffany
(retiring)
63.6% RSolid RSolid RSafe RLikely R
OverallD – 202
R – 216
17 tossups
D – 202
R – 206
12 tossups
15 TBD
D – 205
R – 212
18 tossups
D - 212
R - 204
19 tossups

Party listings

[edit]

The two parties' campaign committees (theNational Republican Congressional Committee andDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee) published their own lists of targeted seats.

Republican-held seats

[edit]

On April 8, 2025, theDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee released their target seat list which included Republican-held seats and open seats.[7]

  1. Alaska 1:Nick Begich III
  2. Arizona 1: Open seat
  3. Arizona 2:Eli Crane
  4. Arizona 6:Juan Ciscomani
  5. California 22:David Valadao
  6. California 40:Young Kim
  7. California 41:Ken Calvert
  8. Colorado 8:Gabe Evans
  9. Florida 7:Cory Mills
  10. Florida 13:Anna Paulina Luna
  11. Florida 27:Maria Elvira Salazar
  12. Iowa 1:Mariannette Miller-Meeks
  13. Iowa 2: Open seat
  14. Iowa 3:Zach Nunn
  15. Kentucky 6: Open seat
  16. Michigan 4:Bill Huizenga
  17. Michigan 7:Tom Barrett
  18. Michigan 10: Open seat
  19. Missouri 2:Ann Wagner
  20. Nebraska 2: Open seat
  21. New Jersey 7:Thomas Kean Jr.
  22. New York 17:Mike Lawler
  23. Ohio 7:Max Miller
  24. Ohio 10:Mike Turner
  25. Ohio 15:Mike Carey
  26. Pennsylvania 1:Brian Fitzpatrick
  27. Pennsylvania 7:Ryan Mackenzie
  28. Pennsylvania 8:Rob Bresnahan
  29. Pennsylvania 10:Scott Perry
  30. Tennessee 5:Andy Ogles
  31. Texas 15:Monica De La Cruz
  32. Virginia 1:Rob Wittman
  33. Virginia 2:Jen Kiggans
  34. Wisconsin 1:Bryan Steil
  35. Wisconsin 3:Derrick Van Orden

Democratic-held seats

[edit]

On March 17, 2025, theNational Republican Congressional Committee released their target seat list which included Democratic-held seats and open seats.[8] TheDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee also released its frontline members, which are bolded below, and the ones not bolded are seats targeted by the Republican committee but not in the Democratic committee frontline program:

  1. California 9:Josh Harder
  2. California 13:Adam Gray
  3. California 27:George Whitesides
  4. California 45:Derek Tran
  5. California 47:Dave Min
  6. Florida 9:Darren Soto
  7. Florida 23:Jared Moskowitz
  8. Indiana 1:Frank Mrvan
  9. Maine 2:Jared Golden
  10. Michigan 8:Kristen McDonald Rivet
  11. North Carolina 1:Don Davis
  12. New Hampshire 1: Open seat
  13. New Jersey 9:Nellie Pou
  14. New Mexico 2:Gabe Vasquez
  15. Nevada 1:Dina Titus
  16. Nevada 3:Susie Lee
  17. Nevada 4:Steven Horsford
  18. New York 3:Tom Suozzi
  19. New York 4:Laura Gillen
  20. New York 19:Josh Riley
  21. Ohio 9:Marcy Kaptur
  22. Ohio 13:Emilia Sykes
  23. Texas 28:Henry Cuellar
  24. Texas 34:Vicente Gonzalez
  25. Virginia 7:Eugene Vindman
  26. Washington 3:Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdefghijklmnRating is based on the map if2025 California Proposition 50 passes
  2. ^abcdefghijklmState enacted a new congressional map after the most recent publication of the Cook PVI.
  3. ^abcdefRatings not given for Ohio races due to pending redistricting.
  4. ^Republican Mark Green resigned on July 20, 2025. Aspecial election will be held on December 2.
  5. ^abRating is based on the map proposal C, passed by the legislature but awaiting judicial confirmation

References

[edit]
  1. ^"2025 Cook PVI℠: District Map and List (119th Congress)".The Cook Political Report. April 3, 2025. RetrievedApril 3, 2025.
  2. ^"Election 2024: House results". CNN. RetrievedMarch 7, 2025.
  3. ^"2026 CPR House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2025.
  4. ^"2026 House Ratings". Inside elections. RetrievedMarch 7, 2025.
  5. ^"2026 House Ratings".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedApril 10, 2025.
  6. ^"The 2026 House Forecast".Race to the WH. RetrievedOctober 8, 2025.
  7. ^rice@dccc.org (April 8, 2025)."DCCC Announces 2026 Districts in Play".DCCC. RetrievedAugust 25, 2025.
  8. ^Marinella, Mike (March 17, 2025)."NRCC Targets 26 Offensive Seats to Expand House Majority".NRCC. RetrievedAugust 25, 2025.
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