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A general election to determine the composition of the 55th Parliament of New Zealand is planned to be held on 7 November 2026,[1][2] following the dissolution or expiry of the currently elected54th Parliament.
Voters will elect 120 members to theHouse of Representatives under New Zealand'smixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, aproportional representation system in which 71 members are elected from single-memberelectorates and 49 members are elected fromclosedparty lists.
After the previous election, the centre-rightNational Party, led by Prime MinisterChristopher Luxon, formeda coalition government with theACT andNew Zealand First parties. The main opponent to the National–ACT–NZ First government is the centre-leftLabour Party, led by former Prime MinisterChris Hipkins. Other opposition parties include the left-wingGreen Party and the indigenous rights-basedTe Pāti Māori.
New Zealand uses themixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties which meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of theparty vote they receive. At this election, 71 of the 120 seats will be filled by the MPs elected from theelectorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by thefirst past the post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 49 seats will be filled by candidates from each party's closedparty list. If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, anoverhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.
The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms theGovernment. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, a party has only won an outright majority of seats once, when theLabour Party won 65 out of 120 seats in2020. As a result, parties typically negotiate with other parties to form acoalition government or aminority government.

Electorate boundaries for the next election are due to be redrawn following the2023 census. This means that unless asnap election is called before the boundary review, the next general election will be the first to use boundaries based on the 2023 census.[3][4]
The number ofSouth Island general electorates is fixed at 16,[5] with the number ofNorth Island general electorates and Māori electorates increasing or decreasing in proportion. For the 2020 and 2023 elections, there were 49 North Island general electorates and seven Māori electorates, leaving 48 seats to be elected through party lists. Due to changes in the relative populations between the two islands,Statistics New Zealand announced on 25 October 2024 that there would be 16 South Island electorates, 48 North Island electorates, 7 Māori electorates, and 49 list seats.[6][7] Redrawn draft boundaries were released for public consultation on 25 March 2025. The draft boundaries proposed the disestablishment of theŌhāriu,Mana andŌtaki electorates in Wellington, replacing them with two new electorates, Kenepuru andKapiti. Meanwhile due to significant boundary changes inNew Lynn,Kelston,Te Atatū,Panmure-Ōtāhuhu, andBay of Plenty, those electorates are proposed to be replaced with new electorates namedWaitākere, Glendene, Rānui,Ōtāhuhu, and Mount Maunganui respectively.[8] The majority of objections to the draft boundaries concerned movingBalmoral fromEpsom toMount Albert, movingAshhurst fromRangitīkei toWairarapa, and movingNewlands andWoodridge fromŌhāriu toHutt South.[9][10]
On 8 August, the electorate boundaries were finalised, with the reconfiguration leading to the creation of new electorates. In westernAuckland, the electorates ofNew Lynn,Kelston andTe Atatū were reconfigured intoWaitakere,Glendene andHenderson. In southern Auckland, the electorate ofPanmure-Ōtāhuhu becomesŌtāhuhu after losing the Panmure suburbs. InBay of Plenty, the electorates ofTauranga andBay of Plenty are reconfigured, with theBay of Plenty electorate being re-namedMount Maunganui to reflect the change. In the East Coast, theEast Coast electorate was re-named toEast Cape.
In the lowerNorth Island, the electorates of Otaki, Mana and Ōhāriu are reconfigured into theKenepuru andKapiti electorates. In Wellington, the northward shift ofWellington Central led to the recreation of theWellington North electorate, while the expansion ofRongotai into the Wellington suburbs led to the formation of theWellington Bays electorate.[11]
Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years. The last election was held on Saturday, 14 October 2023.[12]
TheGovernor-General must issuewrits for an election within seven days of the expiration ordissolution of thecurrent Parliament.[13] Under section 17 of theConstitution Act 1986, Parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2023 election were returned on 9 November 2023. As a result, the 54th Parliament would expire, if not dissolved earlier, on Monday, 9 November 2026. Consequently, the last day for issuance of writs of election would be 16 November 2026. The writs must be returned within 60 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount or death of a candidate), which would be Friday, 15 January 2027.[14] Because polling day must be a Saturday,[14] and two weeks is generally required for the counting of special votes, the last possible date that this election could be held is Saturday, 19 December 2026.
On 21 January 2026, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced that the election will be held on 7 November 2026. Parliament will dissolve on 1 October and writs will be issued on 4 October with nominations closing at midday on 8 October. Advance voting will begin on 26 October, and the last day for the return of the writ will be 3 December.[15]
Since the 2023 election, six parties have been deregistered:DemocracyNZ on 15 February 2024,[16][a]Leighton Baker Party on 27 May 2024,[17][b]New Zealand Loyal on 26 July 2024,[18][c]Democratic Alliance on 27 November 2024,[19]New Nation Party on 29 January 2025,[20][d] andFreedoms New Zealand on 1 May 2025.[21][e]
Damien O'Connor announced on 26 January 2026 that he would not stand in theWest Coast-Tasman electorate again, but whether he will stand elsewhere or go on the list has not been decided yet.[22]
| Name | Party | Electorate/List | Term in office | Date announced | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Webb | Labour | Christchurch Central | 2017–present | 21 October 2025[23] | |
| Paulo Garcia | National | New Lynn | 2019–2020, 2023–present | 16 December 2025[24] | |
| Maureen Pugh | National | West Coast-Tasman | 2016–2017, 2018–present | 23 January 2026[25] | |
| Celia Wade-Brown | Green | List | 2024–present | 28 January 2026[26] | |
| Judith Collins | National | Papakura | 2002–present | 28 January 2026[27] | |
| Name | Party | Electorate/List | Term in office | Date announced | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Woods | Labour | Wigram | 2011–present | 3 August 2025[28] | ||
| Nicola Willis | National | List | 2018–present | 22 December 2025[29] | ||
| Greg O'Connor | Labour | Ōhāriu | 2017–present | 21 January 2026[30] | Intention to become Speaker of the House of Representatives | |
In November 2025, the National Party announced that it would gradually raise the defaultKiwiSaver contribution for employees and employers from 3% to 6% by 2032 if re-elected in 2026.[31]
In late October 2025, Labour made two policy announcements including the establishment of an economic investment fund called the "NZ Future Fund" and the introduction of acapital gains tax based on property transactions to subsidise doctors' visits.[32][33] In early November 2025, the party proposed freecervical cancer screenings for all women aged between 25 and 69 years.[34] In mid-November, the party announced that it would repeal theRegulatory Standards Act 2025 within its first 100 days of government if it won the 2026 general election.[35] Prior to the party's annual general meeting, Labour leaderChris Hipkins confirmed that the party would contest all sevenMāori electorates, citing the internal conflict withinTe Pāti Māori, which holds six of those seats. The party has sought to exploit growing voter disillusionment with the National-led coalition government's handling of cost of living, health, economic and housing issues.[36]
In mid January 2026, Labour proposed a streaming levy on foreign streaming companies likeNetflix in order to invest in theNew Zealand film industry.[37] In early February 2026, Labour leaderChris Hipkins along with the Greens co-leadersChlöe Swarbrick andMarama Davidson announced during a press conference at theWaitangi Treaty Grounds that the two parties would work together during the election and in a future government.[38]
In May 2025, the Greens released their alternative "Green Budget," which proposed investing $8 billion over the next four years in various green policies including creating a Ministry of Green Works and supporting sustainable infrastructure.[39] Other notable Green Budget policies have included a newwealth tax, higher corporate taxes, a private jet tax, higher mining royalties and income tax rates.[40] In mid November 2025, the Greens confirmed they would revoke all coal, gold and seabed mining consents approved under the incumbent coalition government'sFast-track Approvals Act 2024.[41]
In early February 2026, co-leaderMarama Davidson confirmed that the party would be fielding candidates in three of theMāori electorates including list MPHuhana Lyndon, lawyer Tania Waikato and former Te Pāti Māori candidate Heather Te-Au Skipworth.[42]
On the 15th of February 2026, the ACT Party held its annual State of the Nation address in Christchurch, where party leader David Seymour stated they would campaign on decreasing government spending, and merging ministerial portfolios.[43][44]
Despite supporting the passage of the Government's Regulatory Standards Act 2025 into law in mid November 2025, New Zealand First subsequently announced on 20 November that it would repeal the legislation if re-elected into government in 2026. NZ First leaderWinston Peters said that the party had only supported the Regulatory Standards Act due toACT New Zealand's coalition agreement with the National Party.[45]
On 10 February 2026, NZ First deputy leaderShane Jones confirmed the party would campaign on reinstating ministerial powers in approvingfast-track projects during the 2026 election.[46] On 12 February, the party confirmed it would campaign for a referendum on the future of theMāori electorates.[47]
In February 2025, Te Pāti Māori proposed the creation of a Parliamentary Commissioner forTe Tiriti o Waitangi, who would have extraordinary powers to audit and veto bills that did not comply with the Treaty. The party described the policy as a "bottomline" in any coalition negotiations.[48] In April 2025, Te Pāti Māori announced plans to run candidates in the general seats at the 2026 general election.[49]
In January 2026, the party stated they will campaign onabolishing prisons by 2040 to address the high Māori incarceration rate, replacing them with "community-led and community-based solutions".[50]
The Opportunity Party has announced it would campaign with several policies, including reducing house prices through a land value tax, and introducing a "Citizen's Voice", consisting ofcitizens' assemblies for certain major issues.[51] In mid-February 2026, party leader Qiulae Wong announced that Opportunity would campaign on replacing all forms of welfare assistance includingsuperannuation with a means-tested "citizen's income." Unlikeuniversal basic income, people earning more than NZ$350,000 a year would not be able to access it. The citizen's income policy would be funded by a land value tax, and savings from the benefits that would be replaced.[52]

The use ofmixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). However, projections that show the National Party winning fewer than 44 total seats (44 being the number of electorate seats currently held by National) assume that National will lose at least enough electorates to avoid an overhang. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[53]
| Source | Seats in parliament[i] | Likely government formation | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | Total | ||
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[54] 1-3 Feb 2026 poll | 39 | 43 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 120 | Hung parliament |
| Roy Morgan[55] 6–26 Jan 2026 poll | 43 | 38 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| RNZ–Reid Research[56] 15–22 Jan 2026 poll | 40 | 43 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[57] 14–18 Jan 2026 poll | 39 | 43 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[58] 25 Nov – 21 Dec 2025 poll | 41 | 40 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 4* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy[59] 5–10 Dec 2025 poll | 38 | 48 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 4* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[60] 29 Nov–3 Dec 2025 poll | 44 | 43 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 4*** | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Roy Morgan[61] 27 Oct – 23 Nov 2025 poll | 42 | 36 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 4* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Talbot Mills[62] 1–10 Nov 2025 poll | 40 | 47 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 4* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[63] 2–6 Nov 2025 poll | 39 | 42 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[64] 29 Sep – 26 Oct 2025 poll | 41 | 39 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Talbot Mills[65] 1–10 Oct 2025 poll | 35 | 43 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[66] 4–8 Oct 2025 poll | 42 | 40 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy[67] 3–8 Oct 2025 poll | 38 | 42 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[68] 1–5 Oct 2025 poll | 38 | 40 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan[69] 25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025 poll | 39 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 120 | Hung parliament |
| RNZ–Reid Research[70] 4–12 Sep 2025 poll | 40 | 42 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Talbot Mills[71] 1–10 Sep 2025 poll | 39 | 43 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[72] 31 Aug – 2 Sep 2025 poll | 42 | 42 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan[73] 28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025 poll | 36 | 42 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6*** | 123 | Labour–Greens–Māori (65) |
| Talbot Mills[74] 1–10 Aug 2025 poll | 39 | 42 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[75] 2–6 Aug 2025 poll | 42 | 40 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[76] 3–5 Aug 2025 poll | 40 | 43 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 6** | 122 | Hung parliament |
| Roy Morgan[77] 30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 poll | 38 | 39 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Talbot Mills[78] 1–10 Jul 2025 poll | 39 | 42 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[79] 2–6 Jul 2025 poll | 42 | 39 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Roy Morgan[80] 26 May – 22 Jun 2025 poll | 40 | 37 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[81] 7–9 Jun 2025 poll | 42 | 44 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| RNZ–Reid Research[82] 23–30 May 2025 poll | 38 | 42 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| 1 News–Verian[83] 24–28 May 2025 poll | 43 | 37 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[84] 28 Apr – 25 May 2025 poll | 40 | 37 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[85] 30 Apr – 4 May 2025 poll | 42 | 41 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[86] 24 Mar – 20 Apr 2025 poll | 39 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[87] 29 Mar – 2 Apr 2025 poll | 44 | 40 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[88] 29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 poll | 42 | 37 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| RNZ–Reid Research[89] 21–27 Mar 2025 poll | 41 | 40 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[90] 24 Feb – 23 Mar 2025 poll | 41 | 35 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 120 | Hung parliament |
| Talbot Mills[91] 1–10 Mar 2025 poll | 39 | 43 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[92] 2–4 Mar 2025 poll | 42 | 42 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Roy Morgan[93] 27 Jan – 23 Feb 2025 poll | 38 | 36 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 6** | 122 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[94] 3–7 Feb 2025 poll | 43 | 42 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[95] 2–4 Feb 2025 poll | 39 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Talbot Mills[96] 7–27 Jan 2025 poll | 40 | 42 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| Roy Morgan[97] 2–26 Jan 2025 poll | 40 | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[98] 9–13 Jan 2025 poll | 38 | 39 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[99] 25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024 poll | 39 | 32 | 17 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| 1 News–Verian[100] 30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 poll | 46 | 36 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[101] 1–3 Dec 2024 poll | 44 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT (61) |
| Labour–Talbot Mills[102] 22–28 Nov 2024 poll | 39 | 40 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy[103] 26–27 Nov 2024 poll | 42 | 39 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan[104] 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 poll | 37 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[105] 6–10 Nov 2024 poll | 48 | 39 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Talbot Mills[106] 1–10 Nov 2024 poll | 42 | 41 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[107] 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 poll | 39 | 37 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[108] 5–9 Oct 2024 poll | 47 | 37 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[109] 3–7 Oct 2024 poll | 44 | 38 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Roy Morgan[110] 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 poll | 47 | 29 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[111] 8–10 Sep 2024 poll | 48 | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Talbot Mills[112] 1–10 Sep 2024 poll | 46 | 39 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan[113] 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 poll | 45 | 33 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| 1 News–Verian[114] 10–14 Aug 2024 poll | 49 | 38 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan[115] 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 poll | 41 | 31 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[116] 4–8 Jul 2024 poll | 47 | 33 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Roy Morgan[117] 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 poll | 44 | 35 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[118] 15–19 Jun 2024 poll | 47 | 36 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[119] 4–6 Jun 2024 poll | 44 | 36 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[120] 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 poll | 42 | 38 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 122 | Hung parliament |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[121] 5–7 May 2024 poll | 47 | 37 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Talbot Mills[122] 30 Apr 2024 poll | 42 | 41 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[123] 20–24 Apr 2024 poll | 48 | 40 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (64) |
| Roy Morgan[124] 25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 poll | 45 | 31 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[125] 2–4 Apr 2024 poll | 47 | 32 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan[126] 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 poll | 45 | 27 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
| Talbot Mills[127] 1–10 Feb 2024 poll | 47 | 35 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[128] 1–7 Feb 2024 poll | 49 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT (66) |
| Roy Morgan[129] 8–28 Jan 2024 poll | 49 | 28 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Roy Morgan[130] Dec 2023 poll | 46 | 28 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 8** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Curia[131] 3–5 Dec 2023 poll | 46 | 36 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT-NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[132] 1–6 Nov 2023 poll | 46 | 35 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| 2023 election result[133] 14 Oct 2023 | 48 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
Legislation has been introduced on changing the parliamentary term to four years from the current three. A referendum would be held alongside the election that follows the passage of the drafted bill. This would be either at the 2026 election, or the election after. If backed, the term length change would apply from October 2031.[134] In August 2025, Cabinet allocated $25 million for a referendum on four-year terms.[135]