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Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Hungary in April 2026.[1][2] This parliamentary election will be the 10th since1990.
On 3 April 2022, with 54.13% of the popular vote,Fidesz–KDNP received the highest vote share by any party or alliance since 1990 and won two-thirds of the seats for the fourth time. TheUnited for Hungary alliance suffered a massive defeat and was shortly after dissolved, its members sat in separate political groups in the National Assembly. From other minor parties, onlyOur Homeland Movement reached the threshold for entry, while theHungarian Two Tailed Dog Party did not.[3]
Following the election, only theDemocratic Coalition managed to achieve sustained double-digit poll results alongside Fidesz, but still lagged far behind the ruling parties.[4][5]
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On 2 February 2024, it was revealed that PresidentKatalin Novák had granted apardon in April 2023 to a criminal involved in a pedophilia case.[6] The scandal resulted in Novák's resignation, as well as that of former justice ministerJudit Varga, who had countersigned the pardon.[7] Not long after, Varga's ex-husbandPéter Magyar published aFacebook post declaring that he would resign from all of his government-related positions, stating that the past few years had made him realize that the idea of a "national, sovereign, bourgeois Hungary" stated as the goal ofViktor Orbán's rule was in fact a "political product" serving to obscure massive corruption and transfers of wealth to those with the right connections.[8]
On 15 March, Magyar, despite initially refusing his participation in politics, held a rally attended by tens of thousands inBudapest at which he announced the formation of a new political party.[9] According to polling conducted that month, around 15% of voters claimed they were "certain or highly likely" to vote for Magyar if he ran for office.[10]
On 10 April, Magyar announced his bid to run both in theEuropean andBudapest Assembly elections with the at that point unknownRespect and Freedom Party, which finished in 2nd place with nearly 30% of votes, the highest number and percentage of votes by any non-Fidesz party since 2006, eventuating collapse for other opposition parties with it and a new situation in Hungarian politics. Following the midterm elections, the strengthening of TISZA continued and according to the independent/opposition-aligned polls, by the end of the year it had become the most popular political party in Hungary, or at least a close competitor to Fidesz, thus overturning the continuous dominance of ruling parties that had lasted since theŐszöd speech came to light.[11][12] Following this, some opposition parties, such asEverybody's Hungary People's Party andMomentum Movement have decided not to run in the next election in the interest of government change.[13][14]
On 17 December 2024, the National Assembly voted changes about the 106 constituencies. As a result, the number of electoral districts inBudapest decreased from 18 to 16, while inPest County it was increased from 12 to 14. Border changes in some parts ofCsongrád-Csanád County andFejér County also happened. The ruling Fidesz-KDNP made the decision citing changes in the results of latest census (2022), but according to the opposition, the real goal was to weaken their position in those, mainly capital districts, where they werepreviously elected directly.[15]
The changes have been accused of amounting togerrymandering, with the opposition Tisza Party needing to win by around 5 points in the national vote in order to get a majority in the Assembly.[16]
The 199 members of theNational Assembly will be elected bymixed-member majoritarian representation with two methods; 106 will be elected in single-member constituencies byfirst-past-the-post voting, while the other 93 will be elected from a single nationwide constituency, mostly byproportional representation. The electoral threshold is set at 5%, although this is raised to 10% for coalitions of two parties and 15% for coalitions of three or more parties. Seats are then allocated using theD'Hondt method.[17]
Since 2014 each of the Armenian, Bulgarian, Croatian, German, Greek, Polish, Romani, Romanian, Rusyn, Serbian, Slovak, Slovenian, and Ukrainian ethnic minorities can win one of the 93 party lists seats if they register as a specific list and reach a lowered quota of of the total of party list votes. Each minority is able to send a minority spokesman – without the rights of an MP – to the National Assembly, if the list does not reach this lowered quota.[18]
The following graph presents the average of all polls.
The following two graphs present only the polls that are government-aligned, or independent/opposition-aligned, respectively.
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