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2025 in climate change

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Overview of the events of 2024 in climate change
List of years in climate change

This article documents notable events, research findings, scientific and technological advances, and human actions to measure, predict,mitigate, andadapt to theeffects ofglobal warming and climate change—during the year2025.

Summaries

[edit]
The cusp of a new era

     We are on the cusp of a new era. Fossil fuels are running out of road. The sun is rising on a clean energy age.

—UN Secretary GeneralAntónio Guterres, 22 July 2025[1]
This will never, ever be forgiven

     To squabble while famines take hold, forcing millions to flee their homelands – this will never be forgotten as conflicts spread. ... When climate disasters decimate the lives of millions, when we already have the solutions, this will never, ever be forgiven

—Simon Stiell, executive secretary of theUNFCCC,
atCOP30 in Brazil, November 2025[2]

Measurements and statistics

[edit]
  • "Vital Signs of the Planet" as presented by NASA on 31 December 2025[6]
    "Vital Signs of the Planet" as presented by NASA on 31 December 2025[6]
Global average surface temperatures, shown here for each January since 1940, reached a record high temperature of 1.75 °C in January 2025 despite the Earth being in aLa Niña (regional cooling) phase.[7]
Globalsea ice reached a new all-time minimum in early February, and remained below the previous record of February 2023 for the rest of the month.[8]
Hansenet al. (2025) wrote that the IPCC had underestimated aerosols' cooling effect, causing it to also underestimateclimate sensitivity (Earth's responsiveness to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations).[9] In what Hansen called aFaustian bargain, regulation of aerosols improved air quality, but aerosols' cooling effect became inadequate to temper the increasing warming effect of greenhouse gases—explaining unexpectedly large global warming in 2023-2024.[9]
Scientists in the field ofextreme event attribution have concluded that in virtually all countries and territories around the world in a one-year period beginning in May 2024, human-caused global warming has increased the number of days of extreme heat events over long-term norms.[10]
Growth in solar and wind power from the first half of 2024 to the first half of 2025 increased more than the growth in overall demand for electricity, reducing reliance on fossil fuels and helping to curbgreenhouse gas emissions.[11]
15 December: an article published in theCopernicus Programme'sEarth System Science Data presented a GloSATglobal surface air temperature dataset based on marine air temperature observations rather than the sea surface temperature measurements typically used. GloSAT extended back to the 1780s, earlier than 1850 covered by previous datasets.[12]
  • 10 January: a summary from theCopernicus Climate Change Service stated that 2024 was the warmest year since records began in 1850, with anaverage global surface temperature reaching 1.6 °C abovepre-industrial levels, surpassing for the first time the 1.5 °Cwarming target set by theParis Agreement. The summary also stated that 2024 was the second consecutive year with the hottest global temperature, surpassing 2023 by +0.12 °C.[13]
  • 21 January: a study published inNature Climate Change concluded that at least 30% of the Arctic has become a net source of carbon dioxide.[14]
  • 28 January: a study published inEnvironmental Research Letters reported that global meansea surface temperature increases had more than quadrupled, from 0.06 K per decade during 1985–89 to 0.27 K per decade for 2019–23, and projected that the increase inferred over the past 40 years would likely be exceeded within the next 20 years.[15]
  • 3 February: a study co-authored byJames Hansen published inEnvironment concluded that the IPCC had underestimated the effect ofaerosols' planet-coolingradiative forcing, after enactment of international regulation of maritime aerosol emissions in the 2020s designed to improve air quality.[9] This underestimation of aerosols' effect was said to cause underestimation ofclimate sensitivity, Hansenet al. writing that the reduction in aerosols explains the unexpectedly large global warming experienced in 2023-2024.[9]
  • 10 February: a study published inNature Climate Change shows that the first single calendar year above 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels in 2024 indicates that most probably Earth has already entered the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit — that is, a 20-year period with average warming of 1.5 °C.[16]
  • 24 February: a study published by the non-profit Initiative on GHG Accounting of War estimated that the three years of theRussian invasion of Ukraine had caused 230 MtCO2e (metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent)emissions—citing warfare, buildings reconstruction, landscape fires, damage to energy infrastructure, refugee and civil aviation displacement.[17]
  • 7 March: a study byWorld Weather Attribution concluded that in a February 2025heat wave, climate change made extreme heat at least 2 °C hotter and at least ten times more likely.[18]
  • 21 March: on the first World Glaciers Day (established by the UN General Assembly), theWorld Meteorological Organization reported that five of the past six years witnessed the most rapid glacier retreat on record, and 2022-2024 witnessed the largest three-year loss of glacier mass on record.[19]
  • 14 April: a study published in theProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences concluded that since 1940, global warming has tripled the number of days per year that the oceans experience extreme surface heat conditions, and is responsible for a 1 °C increase in maximum intensity of marine heatwave events.[20]
  • 10 May: a study published inAGU Advances said that observations from space show that Earth'senergy imbalance in 2023 reached values that were twice that of the best estimate from theIPCC, and cautioned that the ability to observe this imbalance is deteriorating because satellites are being decommissioned.[21]
  • 30 May: a study jointly published byClimate Central, theRed Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, andWorld Weather Attribution concluded that in the preceding year, four billion people experienced at least thirtyadditional days of extreme heat because of climate change; and that in 195 countries and territories, climate change at least doubled the number of extreme heat days as compared to a world without climate change.[10]
  • 5 June (reported): for the first time,NOAA'sMauna Loa Observatory measured an atmosphericcarbon dioxide concentration of over 430 parts per million.[22]
  • 16 June: a study published inNature Communications found that higher temperatures (27.3 °C vs. 6.4 °C) were associated with a 45% higher probability of havingobstructive sleep apnea on a given night.[23]
  • 18 June: a study published inNature concluded that global warming reduces crop production by 4.4% of recommended caloric consumption for each 1 °C of global warming, though adaptation measures can reduce losses.[24]
  • July: theInternational Renewable Energy Agency'sRenewable Power Generation Costs 2024 said that on alevelized cost of electricity (LCOE) basis, 91% of newrenewable utility-scale capacity delivered power at a lower cost than the cheapest newfossil fuel-based alternative. New onshore wind projects had an LCOE of $0.034/kWh, solar photovoltaic $0.043/kWh, and hydropower $0.057/kWh.[25]
  • 7 July: a study published inNature Geoscience reported that changes in long-duration heatwaves increase nonlinearly with temperature, with increments of warming increasing the durations more than proportionately.[26]
  • 11 August: applyingextreme event attribution, a study published inNature Ecology & Evolution concluded that human-caused intensification of heat extremes caused a 25–38% reduction in global abundance of tropical birds from 1950 to 2020.[27]
  • 25 August: an article published inNature Climate Change reported the results of a 15-year study that concluded that long-term exposure toheat waves accelerated the aging process, with manual workers, rural residents and participants from communities with fewer air conditioners being more susceptible to health impacts.[28]
  • 27 August: a study published inNature Climate Change concluded that tropicaldeforestation-induced local warming is associated with 23,610–33,560 heat-related deaths per year.[29]
  • 3 September: noting that the planet'scarbon sequestration capacity is not unlimited, a study published inNature concluded that fully using Earth's geologic storage capacity would help limit global warming by only 0.7 °C (1.3 °F).[30]
  • 10 September: applyingextreme event attribution to 213 historical heatwaves from 2000–2023, a study published inNature concluded that human-caused climate change made the median of heatwaves in 2000–2009 about 20 times more likely than a pre-industrial baseline, and heatwaves in 2010–2019 about 200 times more likely.[31] Specifically, the study concluded that fossil fuel and cement producers enabled 16–53 heatwaves that would have been virtually impossible in a preindustrial climate.[31]
  • 10 September: a study published inNature attributed 3,400–7,400 acute deaths in North America and 37,800–90,900 chronic deaths in North America and Europe toPM2.5 (fine particulate matter) exposure from the2023 Canadian wildfires.[32]
  • 7 October:Ember'sGlobal Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2025 reported that in the first half of 2025, renewables overtook coal generation for the first time on record (34.3% vs. 33.1% of global electricity).[33]
  • 13 October:Global Tipping Points Report 2025 said that "warm-water coral reefs are crossing their thermaltipping point and experiencing unprecedented dieback".[34]
  • 13 October: a global study of ~320,000 sleep-tracker users, published in the journalSleep, found that high ambient temperatures (99th vs 50th percentile: 27.3 °C vs 12.2 °C) were associated with a mean sleep loss of approximately 15–17 minutes and a ~40 % increase in the probability of a short-sleep night.[35]
  • 16 October: theWorld Meteorological Organization'sGreenhouse Gas Bulletin reported that from 2023 to 2024, atmospheric carbon dioxide increased by 3.5 ppm, constituting the largest single-year increase since measurements began in 1957.[36]
  • 28 October:The Lancet estimated that in 2022, 2.52 million deaths globally were attributable to ambient air pollution from burning fossil fuels.[37]
  • 12 November: a report fromAmnesty International said that at least 2 billion people, including 520 million children, live within 5 kilometres (3.1 mi) of fossil fuel infrastructure.[38]
  • 12 November: a report from theAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) said that the remainingcarbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5 °C is "virtually exhausted"—equivalent to four years at 2025 emissions levels.[39]
  • May: an EIT Urban Mobility study ofnon-exhaust emissions published by theEuropean Institute of Innovation and Technology said that because ofregenerative braking, electric vehicles produce ~83% lessbrake dust than equivalent conventional vehicles, though their increased weight leads to 20% higher tire and road wear emissions.[40]
  • 9 December: a report from the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network concluded that, from 1980 to 2024, Caribbean hard coral cover declined by 48%; and that, between 1985 and 2024, mean sea surface temperature over coral reef areas increased by +1.07 °C.[41]
  • 9 January 2026: a report published inAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences said thatocean heat content in 2025 had reached a new record for nine consecutive years.[42]
  • 22 January 2026:Ember'sEuropean Electricity Review 2026 reported that in 2025, wind and solar energy provided 30% of EU electricity, surpassing fossil power (29%) for the first time, and generating more power than fossil sources in 14 of 27 EU countries.[43]

Natural events and phenomena

[edit]
  • 1 January: a study published inScience Advances concluded that faster flow of theAntarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) at higher latitudes causes upwelling of isotopically light deep waters around Antarctica, likely increasingatmospheric carbon dioxide levels and thereby potentially constituting a criticalpositive feedback for future warming.[44]
  • 6 January: a study published inNature Climate Change stated that afungal pathogen (Entomophaga maimaiga) that had successfully controlled the defoliation of thespongy moth inNorth American forests was becoming less effective due to climate change producing hotter, drier conditions. The study predicts this will lead to significantly decreased forestbiodiversity and productivity by spongy moths, evidenced by recent increases in defoliation.[45]
  • 7 January: NOAA'sArctic Report Card 2024 reported that, including the impact of increased wildfires, theArctic tundra region had shifted fromstoring carbon in the soil to becoming a carbon dioxidesource, and that the Arctic remained a consistent source of methane—both adding to planet-warming greenhouse gases in the air.[46]
  • 8 January: a study published inNature concluded that one-quarter of 23,496 decapodcrustaceans, fishes andodonates studied, some of which provide climate change mitigation, are threatened with extinction.[47] One-fifth of threatened freshwater species are affected by climate change and severe weather events.[47]
  • 9 January: a study published inNature Reviews Earth & Environment estimated that since the mid-twentieth century, global-averaged 3-month and 12-month "hydroclimate whiplash" events have increased by 31–66% and 8–31%, respectively.[48] Such increases amplify hazards associated with rapid swings between wet and dry states, including flash floods, wildfires, landslides and disease outbreaks.[48] (Hydroclimate volatility refers to "sudden, large and/or frequent transitions between very dry and very wet conditions".)[48]
  • 15 January: a study published inWeather reported that the terrestrial biosphere's rate of natural carbon dioxidesequestration has fallen since its 2008 peak at a rate of 0.25% per year, a decline that will accelerate climate change.[49]
  • 16 January: an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary study published inCommunications Earth & Environment identified five key hazards ofpermafrost thaw: infrastructure failure, disruption of mobility and supplies, decreased water quality, challenges for food security, and exposure to diseases and contaminants.[50]
  • 21 January: a study published in theProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reported an "abrupt, coherent, climate-driven transformation" from "blue" (more transparent) to "brown" (less transparent) states of lakes inGreenland after a season of both record heat and rainfall drove astate change in these systems.[51] This change was said to alter "numerous physical, chemical, and biological lake features", and the state changes were said to be unprecedented.[51]
  • February: thoughpolar bears andgrizzly bears traditionally occupy distinct habitats (marine and land), arctic warming has forced polar bears inland into grizzly bear habitats, where the two species mate to produce hybrid "grolar bears" that have characteristics poorly adapted to either marine or land habitats.[52]
  • 4 February: a study published inEnvironmental Research Letters concluded that, in addition to the2023 marine heat wave, an extensiveriver plume caused a ~10–20 m (33–66 ft) thick strongly stratified barrier layer that contributed toHurricane Idalia's rapid intensification (Category 1 to Category 4 in less than 24 hours).[53]
  • 21 February: a study published innpj Natural Hazards unified studies of climatic trends and ofwildland–urban interface (WUI) expansion, and concluded that climatic factors increased the frequency of high-risk fire weather by a factor of 2.5, and that the combination of climatic factors with WUI expansion led to a 4.1-fold increase in the frequency of conditions conducive to extreme-impact wildfires from 1990 to 2022 across California.[54]
  • 26 February: a study published inNature concluded that theAtlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is resilient to extreme greenhouse gas and North Atlantic freshwater forcings across 34 climate models, suggesting that an AMOC collapse is unlikely in the 21st century.[55]
  • 26 February: a study published inScience Advances concluded that short-, mid-, and long-term ambient outdoor heat can significantly accelerateepigeneticaging in older adults.[56]
  • 5 March: a study published inGeophysical Research Letters concluded that redistribution of mass caused by melting of ice sheets and glaciers will shift the Earth's rotational poles from 12–27 metres (39–89 ft) by 2100, depending on the degree of future global warming.[57] Changing Earth's rotational axis affects spacecraft navigation and orientation of deep space telescopes.[57]
  • 10 March: a study published inNature Sustainability projected that climate change's cooling of the atmosphere occupied byspace debris inlow Earth orbit will reduce the atmosphere's drag on the debris, extending the debris' lifetime and potentially causing a 50–66% reduction insatellite carrying capacity at altitudes 200–1,000 km (120–620 mi).[58]
  • 19 March: an article published inNature said that two major natural events occurred at the end of the last ice age: around 10,300 and 8,300 years ago, sea levels surged rapidly due to meltwater releases from the North American and Antarctic ice sheets, with peak rates of sea-level rise reaching nearly 9 mm/year — comparable to projections for the year 2100 under high-emissions scenarios.[59]
  • 25 March: an article published inNature said that volcanic eruptions over the past 603 years have significantly impacted the strength and tilt of the Atlantic jet stream, which in turn influenced extreme weather events in Europe. These jet stream shifts contributed to increased droughts when moving north and heightened flood risks when shifting south.[60]
  • 10 April:NOAA published a statement that after a few months ofLa Niña conditions, the tropical Pacific wasENSO-neutral and was likely to remain so through autumn, stating the most recent La Niña phase was very brief.[61]
  • 21 April: NOAA confirmed the Earth was experiencing itsfourth global coral bleaching event, which it called the biggest to date: from 1 January 2023 to 20 April 2025, bleaching-level heat stress had impacted 83.7% of the world's coral reef area, and mass coral bleaching had been documented in at least 83 countries and territories.[62]
  • 30 April: a study published inNature Communications described how melting ofsea ice caused by global warming allows increased areas of open water—which passes a narrower spectrum of light than the smooth continuum of frequencies passed by sea ice—to "cause major changes in both the pigment and species composition of primary producers in polar ecosystems".[63] These changes affectphotosynthesis in oceanphytoplankton.[63]
  • 31 March: a study published in theAmerican Geophysical Union'sJGR Oceans said that most climate model simulations project a decline or disappearance of theBeaufort Gyre before 2100, so that the gyre region would no longer accumulate freshwater, thus impacting oceanic properties in the Arctic and North Atlantic..[64]
  • 6 May: a study published inNature Communications concluded thatglacial melt is accelerated even when ocean temperatures are constant, a phenomenon caused when cold freshmeltwater rushing from beneathglaciers creates upward turbulence, drawing in warm ocean water from below.[65]
  • 8 May: NOAA's April 2025 U.S. Climate Report documented a slow-moving storm system that brought over 150 tornadoes to the South and Midwest, resulting in at least 24 fatalities and widespread flooding. This event underscores the increasing frequency of severe convective storms in a warming climate.[66]
  • 20 May: a study published inCommunications Earth & Environment concluded that merely maintaining a global average temperature of +1.5 °C is inadequate to avoid extensive loss and damage to coastal populations in coming centuries, and hypothesized that "+1 °C above pre-industrial, possibly even lower" is required to avoid such loss and damage.[67]
  • 31 May: a study published inCommunications Earth & Environment suggested that asglacial melt exposes soil, glacial meltwater's net sequestration of carbon dioxide gives way to water from exposed soil that enhances methane and carbon dioxide production, switching from a negative to positive warming feedback.[68]
  • 4 June: a study published inNature concluded that atmospheric evaporative demand (AED)—"atmospheric thirst" causing moisture to be removed from the Earth's surface—has increaseddrought severity by an average of 40% globally.[69]
  • 9 June: a study published inGlobal Change Biology suggested that by 2020, globalocean acidity conditions had already crossed into theuncertainty range of thePlanetary Boundary Framework.[70]
  • 16 June: a study published in theProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reported a tripling in the past half-century of the number ofplanetary wave events caused by quasi-resonant amplification (QRA).[71] Such wave events underlie extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, wildfires, and heat dome events.[71]
  • 7 July: findings in a study published inProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences suggested that current Earth system models overestimate the ability ofnortherntemperate forests to absorb carbon, because the models do not consider the impacts of shrinking snowpack and increased soil freeze/thaw cycles.[72]
  • 14 July: a study published inCommunications Earth & Environment said that accelerated East Asian reduction in aerosol emissions unmasks greenhouse gas-driven warming, enough to be a main driver of the accelerated global warming since 2010.[73]
  • 5 August: a study published inGeophysical Research Letters concluded that a slowdown in the rate ofArctic sea ice decline since 2005 is largely due to natural climate variation.[74] The study forecast that the slowdown could continue for another five to ten years, although a faster-than-average sea ice decline would be more likely thereafter.[74]
  • 2 September: a study published in theProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reported that theGulf of Panama's seasonalupwelling failed in early 2025, breaking a >40-year record of reliability, which the researchers said "underscores how climate disruption can threaten wind-driven tropical upwelling systems".[75]
  • 10 September: a study published inAerospace assessed how a warming atmosphere could reduce aircraftclimb angles by 2035–2064 and concluded that the number of people affected by aircraft-generated noise pollution could increase by up to 4%, and that the effects are maximised for the most damaging and psychologically annoying (low) frequencies.[76]
  • 18 September: theWorld Meteorological Organization'sState of Global Water Resources Report 2024 concluded that only one third ofriver basins had normalhydrological conditions in 2024, and that all glacier regions lost ice for third straight year.[77]
  • 24 September: a report from thePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research assessed that the Ocean Acidification Boundary had been breached for the first time, with ocean acidity entering its danger zone—the seventh of ninecritical Earth system boundaries to have been exceeded.[78]
  • 15 October: a study published inNature concluded that Australian rainforests had transitioned fromcarbon sink (on balance, removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere) to carbon source (on balance, adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere).[79]
  • 15 October: a study published inNature concluded that global sea-level rise rates since 1900 are faster than in any century over at least the past four millennia, with human activities causing over 94% of observed urban subsidence in southeastern China.[80]
  • 28 November: a study published inScientific Reports reported that between 2010 and 2017, Africa’s forests and woody savannas transitioned from being acarbon sink to acarbon source, a transition largely attributed todeforestation.[81]
  • 8 December: a study published in theJournal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry concluded that children exposed to average maximum temperatures above 32 °C (90 °F) were less likely to be developmentally on track compared to those exposed to cooler temperatures, with literacy and numeracy skills being most affected.[82]

Actions, and goal statements

[edit]

Science and technology

[edit]
A positive tipping point

      Experts believe thatsolar,wind, andEVs have irreversibly crossed a positivetipping point and entered a virtuous cycle of cost decline and widespread adoption.

—Climate Action Team in the Executive Office
of the United Nations Secretary-General[83]
July 2025
  • 12 February: a study published inBird Study found thatsolar farms can benefit bird abundance andbiodiversity in arable-dominated landscapes, especially when managed with biodiversity in mind.[84]
  • 3 March: advising policy makers to assimilate uncertainty into decision making to increasedecarbonization, a study published in theProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences urged a "portfolio approach" of planting diverse species of trees, as that approach "reduces exposure to downside cost extremes".[85]
  • May (reported): a technique involves pumping water from beneath Arctic ice and spraying it on top of the ice. It quickly refreezes, thickening the ice in that location so that it lasts longer into the warm months and increases the amount of planet-warming sunlight that isreflected back into space.[86]
  • Spring: two Chinese companies announced battery technology to enable electric vehicles to drive hundreds of miles on a five-minutecharge.[87]BYD Company developed a battery with a peak charging capacity of 1,000 kilowatts, compared to U.S. chargers with peak rates of 400 kilowatts or less.[87]
  • 15 December: theCopernicus Programme's Earth System Science Data released the GloSAT reference analysis, a gridded data set ofair temperature change across global land and ocean extending back to the 1780s, using marine air temperature observations rather than the sea surface temperature measurements.[88]

Political, economic, legal, and cultural actions

[edit]
Existential problem of planetary proportions

      (Climate change is) an existential problem of planetary proportions that imperils all forms of life and the very health of our planet. ... A complete solution to this daunting, and self-inflicted, problem requires the contribution of all fields of human knowledge, whether law, science, economics or any other.

—International Court of Justice advisory opinion[89] regardingObligations of States in respect of climate change
26 July 2025
In May 2025, NOAA/NCEI in the Trump administration indicated that it would no longer assemble the data that forms the basis of this chart.[95] NOAA/NCEI has access to non-public data, so that any private databases would be more limited in scope.[95]
  • 30 March: anopen letter signed by 1900 researchers called on the administration of US PresidentDonald Trump to stop its "wholesale assault on U.S. science", including its blocking of research on climate change, and causing researchers to live in a "climate of fear" amid the administration's flagging of terms such asclimate change as objectionable.[96]
  • 28 April: U.S. PresidentDonald Trump dismissed the scientists and experts who compile theNational Climate Assessments (NCAs) that are required by theU.S. Congress, the next assessment having been planned for 2028.[97] This decision disrupted the NCA's long-standing process of providing Congress and the public with credible, science-based climate information.[98] Within the week, theAmerican Meteorological Society (AMS) and theAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU) said that together they will produce over 29 peer-reviewed journals to cover climate change; that while not claiming they will replace the NCA, they will carry on its work.[99]
  • 7 May: a study ofemissionsinequality from 1990 to 2020 published inNature Climate Change concluded that two-thirds of global warming isattributable to the wealthiest 10%, and 20% of warming is attributable to the wealthiest 1%.[100] Numerous other statistics were presented.
  • 8 May (reported): theNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under U.S. PresidentDonald Trump said that NOAA'sNational Centers for Environmental Information would no longer update its Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters database beyond 2024, and that its information—going as far back as 1980—would be archived.[95]
Beyond scientific dispute

      In summary, the committee concludes that the evidence for current and future harm to human health and welfare created by human-causedGHGs is beyond scientific dispute. Much of the understanding of climate change that was uncertain or tentative in 2009 is now resolved and new threats have been identified. ... The United States faces a future in which climate-induced harm continues to worsen and today's extremes become tomorrow's norms.

—National Academies of
Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine[101]
17 September 2025
A con job and a scam

     [Climate change] is the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world, in my opinion. ... All of thesepredictions...were made by stupid people that of course their country's fortunes and given those same countries, no chance for success. If you don't get away from thisgreen scam, your country is going to fail.

— US President Donald Trump
to the UN General Assembly,
23 September 2025[102]
  • 22 September:Climate Action Tracker downgraded the US's rating from "insufficient" to "critically insufficient", citing US climate action under theTrump Administration.[111]
  • 28 October:Bill Gates wrote that "we’ve made great progress" fighting climate change, but that funds should not be cut for "health and development" for promoting humanresilience.[112] He wrote that people "will be able to live and thrive in most places on Earth for the foreseeable future", and that much of the climate community now "focus(es) too much on near-termemissions goals".[112]
  • November (reported): theUniversity of California, San Diego is thought to be the first major public university in the U.S. to require undergraduate students to take a class on climate change to earn their degree, with other schools adding environmental sustainability requirements.[113]
  • November: the2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) took place inBelém,Brazil, without the United States sending high-level representatives.[114] Administrators granted access to about 1600fossil fuel lobbyists, constituting one in 25 attendees and outnumbering representatives from any individual country except Brazil.[115] Negotiations came close to collapse andpetrostates blocked measures fortransition away from fossil fuels, though there was agreement of ajust transition mechanism (JTM).[116]
  • 1 December (reported): US real estate listing serviceZillow removed a feature, added in September, that listed individual properties' risk of wildfire, flood, extreme heat, wind and poor air quality. Removal was prompted by whatThe Guardian described as "complaints from real estate agents and some homeowners that the rankings appeared arbitrary, could not be challenged and harmed house sales".[117]
  • 10 December (reported): theUS Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) removed mention offossil fuels from its web page explaining thecauses of climate change, retaining mention of only natural phenomena as causes.[118]

Mitigation goal statements

[edit]

Adaptation goal statements

[edit]
  • 9 March:US Secretary of DefensePeter Hegseth posted on social media websiteX that "The (US Department of Defense) does not do climate change crap", though a 2018Pentagon study found that nearly half of all U.S. military sites were threatened by weather linked to climate change.[122] Hegseth also called for a review of mission statements and military planning documents to ensure there are no "references to climate change and related subjects", though not prohibiting the Pentagon from "assessingweather-related impacts on operations, mitigating weather-related risks (or) conducting environmental assessments".[123] The Defense Department had announced cancellation of 91 studies, including research on climate change impacts and global migration patterns, to save about 0.03% of the department's budget in 2024.[124]

Consensus

[edit]
Surveys of US adults re global warming show slowly growing agreements that global warming is occurring and is mostly human-caused. By 2025, over 70% of surveyed US adults agreed that global warming is happening, and almost 60% agree that it is mostly human-caused.[125]
  • 17 April: a study published inNature Human Behaviour found that presenting people withbinary climate data—for example, a lake freezing versus not freezing—significantly increases the perceived impact of climate change compared to whencontinuous data such as temperature change is presented.[126] The researchers said the findings confirmed theboiling frog effect forclimate change communication.[126]
  • 5 June: results of a 20-country survey published inNature Human Behaviour show strong majority support—including 75% of Europeans and half of Americans—for the Global Climate Scheme (a variant ofCap and Share) a global carbon price and cash redistribution plan. The study also found widespread support for increased foreign aid or a wealth tax to fund low-income countries.[127]
  • 22 August: results of a public survey of theglobal south published inNature Climate Change found thatscientists are perceived as the most trusted information source in all countries surveyed except Vietnam, and that trust in scientists correlates with increased climate knowledge.[128]

Projections

[edit]
  • 6 January: A study published inScientific Reports comparing projectedheat-related deaths from climate change withCOVID-19 mortality rates across 38 global cities found that in half, annual heat-related deaths would likely exceed COVID-19 death rates within 10 years ifglobal temperatures rise by 3.0 °C abovepre-industrial levels. The study projected that cities inNorth America andEurope, particularly inMediterranean andCentral European regions, would have most dramatic increases in projected heat mortality.[129]
  • 3 February: climate risk financial modeling company First Street Foundation projected that by 2055, 70,026 U.S. neighborhoods (84% of all census tracts) may experience $1.47 trillion in net climate-related property value losses, citing insurance pressures and shifting consumer demand.[130]
  • 4 February: a review article published inNature Reviews Earth & Environment, linking physical climate science with heat mortality risk, projected that human-caused global warming reaching 2 °C above preindustrial levels will cause tripling of global land area that is "uncompensable" (beyond which human core body temperature rises uncontrollably) for young adults.[131]
  • 26 February: a study published inNature concluded that theAtlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is resilient to extreme greenhouse gas and North Atlantic freshwater forcings across 34 climate models, suggesting that an AMOC collapse is unlikely in the 21st century.[55]
  • 28 February: based on the Earth's orbital characteristics (precession,obliquity, andeccentricity), a study published inScience concluded thatglacial-interglacial periodicity has been largely deterministic in a ~100,000 year cycle, and projected that in the absence of human-caused forcing, the nextice age would start in ~10,000 years.[132]
  • 5 March: a paper published inNature cited theInternational Energy Agency as stating thatdata centers caused 1–1.3% of world electricity demand in 2022, but that, with electricity consumption expected to grow by more than 80% by 2050 owing to all sources, data centers were projected to "account for a relatively small share of overall electricity demand growth".[133]
  • 10 March: a study published inNature Sustainability projected that climate change's cooling of the atmosphere that is occupied byspace debris inlow Earth orbit will reduce the atmosphere's drag on the debris, extending the debris' lifetime and potentially causing a 50–66% reduction insatellite carrying capacity at altitudes 200–1,000 km (120–620 mi).[58]
  • 12 March: theBoston Consulting Group'sLanding the Economic Case for Climate Action with Decision Makers concluded that thenet cost of failing to invest to reduce global warming from a current forecast 3.0 °C to 2.0 °C equates to 11% to 27% of cumulative economic output.[134]
Overshooting 1.5 °C goal of Paris Agreement is inevitable

     Science tells us it is still possible to keep temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Yet, a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees, starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s, is now inevitable.

—UN Secretary GeneralAntónio Guterres
atCOP30 in Brazil, November 2025[135]
  • 20 May: noting that current global temperatures have quadrupled the rate ofice sheet loss since the 1990s, a study published inNature Communications concluded that maintaining current global temperatures will cause several metres ofsea level rise over coming centuries, "causing extensive loss and damage to coastal populations and challenging the implementation of adaptation measures".[67]
  • 28 May: theWorld Meteorological Organization projected a 70% chance that the average global warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 °C, up from 47% in last year's report for 2024-2028.[136]
  • 29 May: a study published inScience estimated that if temperatures remain steady, glaciers globally will lose 39% of their 2020 mass, causing asea level rise of 113 millimetres (4.4 in).[137] More than twice as much glacier mass was projected to remain at the Paris Agreement's +1.5 °C goal than the 2.7 °C predicted from current policies (53% versus 24%).[137]
  • 16 June: a study published inNature Communications projected that with ≥1.8 °C global warming, there would be a 1.2- to 3-fold increase inobstructive sleep apnea by 2100.[23]
  • 10 September: a report byCommon Goal and Football for Future forecast that by 2050, 14 of 16World Cup stadiums will face extreme heat conditions (unsafe withoutadaptation), and 11 stadiums will experience unplayable heat (where matches cannot be safely staged).[138] Also, every grassrootspitch analyzed already breached at least three major climate risk thresholds, and two-thirds of grassroots pitches will face unsafe or unplayable heat conditions.[138]
  • 17 September: a study published inNature projected that if global warming exceeds 2 °C (3.6 °F), at least 99% of western Atlanticcoral reefs will be eroding by 2100.[139]
  • 18 September: referring to effects ofPM2.5 (fine particulate matter), a study published inNature projected 34,930-98,430 excess deaths per year in the US by 2050 under a high warming scenario, and suggested that "the health impacts of climate-drivenwildfire smoke could be among the most important and costly consequences of a warming climate in the US".[140]
  • 23 September: a study published inNature Communications projected that many regions may face high risk of "Day ZeroDrought" (DZD) conditions by the 2020s and 2030s, with the length of time between successive DZD events being shorter DZD durations.[141]
  • 24 October: a study published inNature Climate Change projected that under current climate policies, emissions until 2050 lock in 0.3 metres (0.98 ft)additional global meansea level rise by 2300 than historical emissions until 2020, increasing to 0.8 metres (2.6 ft) for emissions until 2090.[142]
  • 17 November: a study published inEnvironmental Research: Climate examined heatwave changes aftergreenhouse gas emissions reachnet zero, simulating assuming various years in which net zero is achieved.[143] The research concluded that most regional trends show no decline over the entire 1000 years of each simulation, and projected that some regions will experience millennial-scale heating trends when net zero occurs on or after 2050.[143]
  • 18 November: a study published inNature Communications Earth and Environment concluded that global warming will weakenAndes mountainsglaciers' buffering role againstmegadroughts, estimating that Andes glacier runoff coulddecline by up to 20% (annual) and 48% (summer) during end-of-century megadroughts compared to pre-2010 levels.[144]
  • 19 November: a study published inNature Communications reconstructed European summer durations over the last ten millennia and projected that by 2100, European summers could last up to 42 days longer under a business-as-usual scenario.[145]
  • 10 December: a study published inNature concluded that, by 2100 under a highemissions scenario, a large part of theAmazon rainforest will shift to a hotter "hypertropical" climate in which "temperature and moisture conditions during typical dry season months will more frequently exceed identified drought mortality thresholds, elevating the risk of forest dieback".[146]
  • 17 December: theInternational Energy Agency forecast that global coal consumption has reached a plateau and may well decline by 2030.[147]

Significant publications

[edit]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
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