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2024 Vermont gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2024 United States gubernatorial elections.

2024 Vermont gubernatorial election

← 2022
November 5, 2024
2026 →
Turnout72.12%
 
NomineePhil ScottEsther Charlestin
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
AllianceProgressive
Popular vote266,43979,217
Percentage73.43%21.83%

County results
Municipality results
Scott:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
     No votes

Governor before election

Phil Scott
Republican

ElectedGovernor

Phil Scott
Republican

Elections in Vermont
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The2024 Vermont gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect thegovernor of Vermont, concurrently with the2024 U.S. presidential election, as well aselections to theUnited States Senate and elections to theUnited States House of Representatives and variousstate and local elections. IncumbentRepublican governorPhil Scott won re-election to a fifth term, defeating theDemocratic nominee,Vermont Commission on Women co-chairEsther Charlestin.[1][2][3] Primary elections took place on August 13, 2024.[4]

Being frequently ranked as the nation's most popular governor,[5][6][7] Scott has won re-election by continually increasing margins since his first election in 2016. Despite Vermont's strong Democratic lean at the presidential level, Scott was expected to easily win again in 2024.

Along withNew Hampshire, this race was one of two Republican-held governorships up for election in 2024 in a state carried byJoe Biden in the2020 presidential election. This was the best Republican performance in a Vermont gubernatorial election since1946, with Scott winning every municipality (as he did in2022)[8] and Scott's coattails allowed Republicans to break Democratic supermajorities in the state legislature.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]
  • Peter Duval, formerUnderhill selectman and independent candidate for governor in2022(ran as a Democrat)[10]

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanPhil Scott (incumbent)23,17392.75%
RepublicanUndervotes[a]1,3575.43%
Write-in4481.79%
RepublicanOvervotes70.03%
Total votes23,565100.00%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Peter Duval, formerUnderhill selectman and independent candidate for governor in2022[13]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Esther Charlestin

Political parties

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Charlestin
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results[11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticEsther Charlestin24,00746.19%
DemocraticUndervotes[a]13,40425.79%
DemocraticPeter Duval9,37718.04%
RepublicanPhil Scott(write-in)4,5588.77%
Write-inMisc. Write-ins6011.56%
DemocraticOvervotes220.04%
Total votes51,969100%

Progressive primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Withdrew after nomination

[edit]
  • Marielle Blais, speech-language pathologist and nominee for state auditor in2022[13][19]

Results

[edit]
Progressive primary results[11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
ProgressiveMarielle Blais26864.73%
ProgressiveUndervotes[a]7117.11%
RepublicanPhil Scott(write-in)358.45%
DemocraticEsther Charlestin(write-in)215.07%
Write-inMisc. Write-ins194.59%
Total votes414100%

Independent and third party candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[22]Solid RJune 13, 2024
Inside Elections[23]Solid RJuly 14, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24]Safe RJune 4, 2024
RCP[25]Solid RJuly 13, 2024
Elections Daily[26]Safe RJuly 12, 2023
CNalysis[27]Solid RAugust 17, 2024

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Phil
Scott (R)
Esther
Charlestin (D)
Kevin
Hoyt (I)
OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire[28]October 29 – November 2, 20241,167 (LV)± 2.9%65%26%2%2%[c]4%
University of New Hampshire[29]August 15–19, 2024924 (LV)± 3.2%56%28%5%2%[d]10%

Results

[edit]
Swing by county[30][31]
Legend
  •   Republican — +0–2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5–5%
  •   Republican — +7.5–10%
2024 Vermont gubernatorial election[32]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanPhil Scott (incumbent)266,43973.43%+2.52%
Democratic/ProgressiveEsther Charlestin79,21721.83%−2.11%
IndependentKevin Hoyt9,3682.58%+0.52%
Green Mountain Peace and JusticeJune Goodband4,5121.24%N/A
IndependentEli "Poa" Mutino2,4140.67%N/A
Write-in8910.25%−0.21
Total votes362,841100.0%
Republicanhold

By county

[edit]
By county
CountyPhil Scott
Republican
Esther Charlestin
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
#%#%#%
Addison16,17172.59%5,37524.13%7303.28%
Bennington14,00769.26%4,29221.22%1,9249.52%
Caledonia12,94778.94%2,64116.1%8144.96%
Chittenden65,87369.18%26,23727.55%3,1143.27%
Essex2,77382.33%37511.13%2206.54%
Franklin21,96082.8%3,28012.37%1,2824.83%
Grand Isle4,05081.75%74415.02%1603.23%
Lamoille11,49178.42%2,56517.5%5974.08%
Orange13,34876.34%3,31018.93%8284.73%
Orleans11,96682.35%1,85212.75%7124.9%
Rutland26,84979.84%4,99214.84%1,7875.32%
Washington24,81771.4%8,37724.1%1,5634.2%
Windham15,71562.51%7,73130.75%1,6936.74%
Windsor24,47272.66%7,44622.11%1,7615.23%
Totals266,43973.43%79,21721.83%17,1854.74%

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcBlank ballots
  2. ^Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Goodband (GMPaJ) with 1%
  4. ^ "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 2%; Goodband (GMPaJ) and Mutino (I) with 0%

References

[edit]
  1. ^Kinzel, Bob (October 19, 2023)."If Gov. Phil Scott runs for reelection, he will remain a Republican".Vermont Public. RetrievedNovember 13, 2023.
  2. ^Mearhoff, Sarah (August 13, 2024)."Esther Charlestin wins Democratic gubernatorial nod while statewide incumbents cruise to primary victories".VTDigger. RetrievedNovember 3, 2024.
  3. ^Thomas, Steff Danielle (November 5, 2024)."GOP Gov. Phil Scott wins reelection in blue Vermont".The Hill. RetrievedNovember 17, 2024.
  4. ^"2024 State Primary Election Dates".www.ncsl.org. RetrievedAugust 6, 2023.
  5. ^"Poll finds Scott retains highest approval rating among governors in US".WCAX News. July 24, 2023. RetrievedMarch 16, 2024.
  6. ^Mueller, Julia (January 12, 2023)."Here are America's most popular and least popular governors".The Hill. RetrievedMarch 16, 2024.
  7. ^MultiState."Decoding 2023 Gubernatorial Approval Ratings".MultiState. RetrievedMarch 16, 2024.
  8. ^McDonald, Zoe."Vermont election updates: Scott, Rodgers and legislative candidates give strong showing".Vermont Public. RetrievedNovember 17, 2024.
  9. ^Mearhoff, Sarah (May 11, 2024)."Phil Scott to seek 5th term as governor".VTDigger. RetrievedMay 11, 2024.
  10. ^abMearhoff, Sarah (August 5, 2024)."Several Democratic primaries feature candidates with conservative ties".VTDigger. RetrievedAugust 7, 2024.
  11. ^abcSecretary of State of Vermont (August 13, 2024)."Vermont Election Night Results".electionresults.vermont.gov. RetrievedAugust 17, 2024.
  12. ^Stolk, Babette (January 5, 2024)."Middlebury educator and consultant Esther Charlestin announces run for governor".VTDigger. RetrievedJanuary 8, 2024.
  13. ^abMearhoff, Sarah (May 30, 2024)."As filing deadline passes, Vermont appears set for a sleepier statewide election season".VTDigger. RetrievedMay 31, 2024.
  14. ^Mearhoff, Sarah (May 20, 2024)."Howard Dean will not run for governor of Vermont".VTDigger. RetrievedMay 20, 2024.
  15. ^Mearhoff, Sarah (October 17, 2023)."State Rep. Caleb Elder floats a 2024 race for governor".VTDigger. RetrievedOctober 18, 2023.
  16. ^Flowers, John (March 15, 2024)."Starksboro Rep. Caleb Elder to run for state Senate".Addison County Independent. RetrievedMarch 30, 2024.
  17. ^Mearhoff, Sarah (May 20, 2024)."Howard Dean, Miro Weinberger rule out runs for governor of Vermont".VTDigger. RetrievedMay 20, 2024.
  18. ^Mearhoff, Sarah (May 2, 2024)."David Zuckerman is seeking reelection to lieutenant governor's office".VTDigger. RetrievedMay 2, 2024.With his reelection announcement Thursday, Zuckerman largely quashed any rumors that he would try to make the jump to higher office this year, either again to the governor's office or to Washington
  19. ^Mearhoff, Sarah (August 21, 2024)."With primary results certified, Vermont's 2024 candidates are set".VTDigger. RetrievedAugust 21, 2024.
  20. ^ab"General Election Candidates". Vermont Secretary of State. May 13, 2024.
  21. ^Cusanelli, Michael (May 20, 2024)."Political newcomer Poa Mutino announces campaign to become governor of Vermont".WPTZ. RetrievedMay 30, 2024.
  22. ^"2024 Governor Race ratings".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedJuly 24, 2023.
  23. ^"Gubernatorial Ratings".Inside Elections. RetrievedJuly 24, 2023.
  24. ^"2024 Gubernatorial race ratings".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedJuly 24, 2023.
  25. ^"2024 Governor Races".www.realclearpolling.com. RetrievedJuly 16, 2024.
  26. ^"Election Ratings".Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. RetrievedJuly 24, 2023.
  27. ^"Governor Forecasts".CNalysis. RetrievedAugust 17, 2024.
  28. ^University of New Hampshire
  29. ^University of New Hampshire
  30. ^"Connecticut Election Results".Bloomberg. RetrievedNovember 13, 2024.
  31. ^"Connecticut Election Results".Bloomberg. November 5, 2024. RetrievedNovember 13, 2024.
  32. ^"2024 General Election Canvass Report"(PDF).VT SOS. RetrievedDecember 10, 2024.

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[edit]

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