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2024 United States presidential election in Oregon

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Main article:2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Oregon

← 2020
November 5, 2024
2028 →
Turnout75% (Decrease7pp)
 
NomineeKamala HarrisDonald Trump
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateCaliforniaFlorida
Running mateTim WalzJD Vance
Electoral vote80
Popular vote1,240,600919,480
Percentage55.27%40.97%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Votes

  
  


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Oregon
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2004
2008
2012
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U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
List of Oregon ballot measures

The2024 United States presidential election in Oregon took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of Oregon has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionment due to the2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]

Democrats have won Oregon in every presidentialelection starting in1988, and have consistently done so by double digits starting in2008. Ablue state, although not as strongly as neighboringCalifornia andWashington, Oregon is part of the Democratic-leaningWest Coast, and was predicted to go comfortably for DemocratKamala Harris (from neighboring California) in 2024.[2]

Harris carried Oregon by a 14.3% margin, which was slightly closer thanOregon in 2020. Oregon shifted to the right by a much smaller margin than the majority of states in this election, asJoe Biden had won Oregon by 16.1% in 2020. This can also be said about neighboringWashington, which also largely resisted the national red wave. Oregon was one of the few states to have many counties shift leftward. Democrats also gained a U.S. House seat in Oregon in theconcurrent U.S. House elections in Oregon.

Oregon and Washington shifted rightwards by less than 2%, much less than the national shift of about 6 percentage points, including the trend of Harris significantly underperforming Biden in many blue states, including her home state ofCalifornia. Trump's vote share in Oregon in this election marked the highest for a Republican candidate in a presidential election sinceMitt Romney in2012.

Primary elections

[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Oregon Republican presidential primary

The Oregon Republican primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as theKentucky caucuses.

Oregon Republican primary, May 21, 2024[3]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Donald Trump294,74491.6%3131
Write-in votes27,2098.5%
Total:321,983100.0%3131

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Oregon Democratic presidential primary

The Oregon Democratic primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as theKentucky primary.

Oregon Democratic primary, May 21, 2024[4]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)397,70287.1%6666
Marianne Williamson33,6037.4%
Write-in votes25,1355.5%
Total:456,440100.0%661278

Minor parties

[edit]

Minor parties in Oregon nominate by nominating delegates to their national conventions, or for the We the People and Independent parties, holding a nominating convention. They are allowed to self-finance a primary, but no party chose to do so. The following candidates' nominations were accepted by Oregon's secretary of state:

Minor party nominations in Oregon
PartyCandidate
LibertarianChase Oliver
We The PeopleRobert F. Kennedy Jr.
Progressive PartyCornel West
Pacific GreenJill Stein
Constitution PartyRandall Terry

The Republican Party issued a legal challenge to Libertarian party ballot access that was rejected by the secretary of state.[5]

General election

[edit]

Oregon is considered solidly Democratic, and Donald Trump did not pay the $3,500 required for a candidate statement in the ballot handbook, although candidate statements were provided by the Democratic, We the People, Libertarian, and Pacific Green candidates.[6] Notably, Oregon's third-largest party, theIndependent Party of Oregon, did not nominate a candidate, although it had cross-nominated Joe Biden in 2020.[7]

In the early hours of October 28, an incendiary device was placed in a ballot drop box in Portland. A total of 3 ballots were damaged, while the rest were unharmed due to the ballot box's fire suppression system.[8]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[9]Solid DDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections[10]Solid DApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11]Safe DJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12]Safe DAugust 26, 2024
CNalysis[13]Solid DDecember 30, 2023
The Economist[14]Safe DSeptember 12, 2024
538[15]Solid DOctober 23, 2024
NBC News[16]Safe DOctober 6, 2024
YouGov[17]Safe DOctober 16, 2024
Split Ticket[18]Safe DNovember 1, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[19][A]October 16–17, 2024716 (LV)± 3.7%53%41%6%
Hoffman Research[20]July 24–26, 2024700 (LV)± 3.7%49%44%7%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Hoffman Research[20]July 24–26, 2024700 (LV)± 3.7%45%40%7%1%7%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
The Bullfinch Group[21][B]April 16–23, 2024250 (RV)± 6.2%52%40%8%
John Zogby Strategies[22][C]April 13–21, 2024419 (LV)47%44%9%
Emerson College[23]October 31 – November 1, 2022975 (LV)± 3.1%51%35%14%
Emerson College[24]September 30 – October 1, 2022796 (LV)± 3.4%50%41%9%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
The Bullfinch Group[21][B]April 16–23, 2024250 (RV)± 6.2%40%29%19%1%3%8%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[22][C]April 13–21, 2024419 (LV)40%49%11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[22][C]April 13–21, 2024419 (LV)42%39%19%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Oregon[25]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic1,240,60055.27%Decrease 1.18%
Republican919,48040.97%Increase 0.60%
We the People33,7331.50%N/A
Pacific Green19,0990.85%Increase 0.35%
Libertarian9,0610.40%Decrease 1.35%
Progressive5,6440.25%Increase 0.04%
Constitution1,8500.08%N/A
Write-in15,0260.67%Decrease 0.05%
Total votes2,244,493100.00%N/A

By county

[edit]
County[25]Kamala Harris
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Baker2,34324.17%7,06072.83%2913.00%-4,717-48.66%9,694
Benton33,90967.50%14,18728.24%2,1364.25%19,72239.26%50,232
Clackamas130,58053.03%106,38743.20%9,2733.77%24,1939.82%246,240
Clatsop12,53353.81%9,91342.56%8443.62%2,62011.25%23,290
Columbia12,89541.15%17,22754.98%1,2123.87%-4,332-13.83%31,334
Coos13,73138.42%20,84958.34%1,1553.23%-7,118-19.92%35,735
Crook3,83623.54%12,01273.71%4492.76%-8,176-50.17%16,297
Curry5,73740.40%8,00056.34%4633.26%-2,263-15.94%14,200
Deschutes68,10853.47%54,85043.06%4,4173.47%13,25810.41%127,375
Douglas18,38629.75%41,56167.24%1,8603.01%-23,175-37.50%61,807
Gilliam29125.66%80570.99%383.35%-514-45.33%1,134
Grant81618.31%3,49078.32%1503.37%-2,674-60.01%4,456
Harney79718.73%3,30777.72%1513.55%-2,510-58.99%4,255
Hood River8,36465.82%3,85430.33%4893.85%4,51035.49%12,707
Jackson54,06545.22%61,74351.64%3,7643.15%-7,678-6.42%119,572
Jefferson3,94133.54%7,45463.44%3553.02%-3,513-29.90%11,750
Josephine16,92834.11%31,12962.72%1,5713.17%-14,201-28.61%49,628
Klamath9,85627.75%24,67569.48%9842.77%-14,819-41.73%35,515
Lake68116.16%3,42181.20%1112.63%-2,740-65.04%4,213
Lane125,77559.53%77,37636.62%8,1343.85%48,39922.91%211,285
Lincoln17,11257.42%11,64539.07%1,0473.51%5,46718.34%29,804
Linn25,74936.05%43,07860.31%2,6023.64%-17,329-24.26%71,429
Malheur2,88426.35%7,71070.44%3513.21%-4,826-44.09%10,945
Marion73,97047.21%77,08949.20%5,6323.59%-3,119-1.99%156,691
Morrow1,13824.05%3,40872.02%1863.93%-2,270-47.97%4,732
Multnomah325,92778.68%70,75917.08%17,5644.24%255,16861.60%414,250
Polk22,03446.30%23,76849.94%1,7913.76%-1,734-3.64%47,593
Sherman23320.03%89076.53%403.44%-657-56.49%1,163
Tillamook7,74747.67%7,97149.05%5343.29%-224-1.38%16,252
Umatilla9,25129.63%20,97367.17%1,0013.21%-11,722-37.54%31,225
Union4,10728.18%9,94268.22%5253.60%-5,835-40.04%14,574
Wallowa1,57330.79%3,36665.90%1693.31%-1,793-35.10%5,108
Wasco6,06945.32%6,83751.06%4853.62%-768-5.74%13,391
Washington193,01364.78%92,59031.08%12,3464.14%100,42333.70%297,949
Wheeler21024.19%61871.20%404.61%-408-47.00%868
Yamhill26,01145.00%29,53651.10%2,2533.90%-3,525-6.10%57,800
Totals1,240,60055.27%919,48040.97%84,4133.76%321,12014.31%2,244,493

County that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Harris won five of six congressional districts.[26][user-generated source]

DistrictHarrisTrumpRepresentative
1st66.76%29.16%Suzanne Bonamici
2nd34.90%61.96%Cliff Bentz
3rd70.73%25.12%Earl Blumenauer (118th Congress)
Maxine Dexter (119th Congress)
4th54.14%42.16%Val Hoyle
5th52.49%43.83%Lori Chavez-DeRemer (118th Congress)
Janelle Bynum (119th Congress)
6th53.75%42.45%Andrea Salinas

Analysis

[edit]

Trump flipped backMarion County, after losing it in 2020 but winning it in 2016.

Trump also became the first Republican to win the White House without winningDeschutes County since it was created in 1916. Deschutes County shifted leftward by about 2%, with Harris winning the highest vote share in the county since 1964.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdefKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ^This poll was sponsored by theNorthwest Progressive Institute
  2. ^abPoll sponsored by The Independent Center
  3. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021)."Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats".NPR.Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. RetrievedAugust 20, 2021.
  2. ^"270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map".270toWin.com. RetrievedDecember 18, 2023.
  3. ^"Oregon Presidential Election Results 2024".NBC News. RetrievedJune 5, 2024.
  4. ^"Oregon Presidential Primary". The AP. June 4, 2024. RetrievedJuly 12, 2024.
  5. ^Shumway, Julia (July 29, 2024)."Despite denials, records show Oregon Republican Party trying to keep Libertarians off the ballot".Oregon Capital Chronicle.
  6. ^Shumway, Julia (September 3, 2024)."Trump won't appear in Oregon's voters' pamphlet, will still be on ballot".Oregon Capital Chronicle.
  7. ^"2024 Nominations of the Independent Party of Oregon".
  8. ^Ortiz, Erik (October 28, 2024)."Ballot drop boxes set on fire in Portland, Ore., and Vancouver, Wash".NBC News. RetrievedOctober 28, 2024.
  9. ^"2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings".cookpolitical.com.Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  10. ^"Presidential Ratings".insideelections.com.Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  11. ^"2024 Electoral College ratings".centerforpolitics.org.University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  12. ^"2024 presidential predictions".elections2024.thehill.com/.The Hill. December 14, 2023. RetrievedAugust 26, 2024.
  13. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".projects.cnalysis.com/.CNalysis. December 30, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  14. ^"Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model".The Economist. RetrievedSeptember 13, 2024.
  15. ^Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024)."2024 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. RetrievedOctober 25, 2024.
  16. ^"Presidential Election Preview 2024".NBC News.
  17. ^"2024 Presidential Election Polls".YouGov.
  18. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
  19. ^Villeneuve, Andrew (October 17, 2024)."Kamala Harris has a fifteen point lead over Donald Trump in Washington and a twelve point lead in Oregon, NPI polls find".Northwest Progressive Institute.
  20. ^abJaquiss, Nigel (July 30, 2024)."New Poll Shows Harris With 5–Point Lead Over Trump in Oregon".Willamette Week.
  21. ^ab"Independent Center 2024 Pacific State Survey Toplines"(PDF).The Independent Center. April 23, 2024. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on May 10, 2024.
  22. ^abc"Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump".Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  23. ^Mumford, Camille (November 4, 2022)."Oregon 2022: Independent Candidates' Support Melts As Democrat Tina Kotek Leads Republican Christine Drazan by Four for Governor".Emerson Polling.
  24. ^Mumford, Camille (October 4, 2022)."Oregon 2022: Republican Christine Drazan with Two-Point Lead Over Democrat Tina Kotek for Governorship; Sen. Wyden Holds 19-Point Lead in Re-election Bid".Emerson Polling.
  25. ^abGriffin-Valade, Lavonne (November 5, 2024)."November 5, 2024, General Election Abstract of Votes".Oregon Secretary of State.Archived from the original on January 30, 2026. RetrievedFebruary 8, 2026.
  26. ^2024 Pres by CD.docs.google.com (Report).
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