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2024 United States presidential election in Ohio

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Ohio

← 2020
November 5, 2024
2028 →
Turnout71.71%Decrease[1]
 
NomineeDonald TrumpKamala Harris
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaCalifornia
Running mateJD VanceTim Walz
Electoral vote170
Popular vote3,180,1162,533,699
Percentage55.14%43.93%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/no votes

  
  


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Main article:2024 United States presidential election
Elections in Ohio
U.S. President
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
General elections
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant Governor elections
Secretary of State elections
Attorney General elections
State Auditor elections
State Treasurer elections
State Supreme Court elections
State House elections
State Senate elections

The2024 United States presidential election in Ohio was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Ohio voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. Ohio had 17 electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionment due to the2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[2]

RepublicanDonald Trump ultimately won Ohio for the third straight election, defeating DemocratKamala Harris by 11.21%, the widest presidential margin of victory in the state since fellow RepublicanRonald Reagan's 18.76% in1984. Trump became the third presidential candidate to carry Ohio three times, followingFranklin D. Roosevelt (the only previous candidate with three consecutive victories here) andRichard Nixon. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Ohio a state Trump would once again win, or a likelyred state. A formerbellwether andswing state, Ohio has not voted for a Democratic nominee for president sinceBarack Obama in2012. No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. Since 2012, Ohio has been trending towards the GOP. The state is currently moderately to strongly Republican. Trump's 2024 statewide victory was the first double-digit win at the presidential level for Ohio since RepublicanGeorge H. W. Bush's 10.85% in1988. Ohio was the home state of Trump's running mateJD Vance. At the previous presidential election in2020, Trump won Ohio overJoe Biden, the first time a candidate won Ohio but not the presidency since Nixon's contest againstJohn F. Kennedy in1960.

The election was held concurrently with aU.S. Senate race in Ohio, in which Republican nomineeBernie Moreno unseated Democratic incumbentSherrod Brown, which was partly credited to Trump's overall success in the state. Additionally, an attempt to establish a redistricting commission (with the goal of endinggerrymandering) was proposed on the state's ballot but was defeated.[3] Trump's denouncement of this is also perceived as having had an influence on this, amongst a number of other factors.[4][5]

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Ohio Democratic presidential primary

The Ohio Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside theArizona,Illinois, andKansas primaries.

Ohio Democratic primary, March 19, 2024[6]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)461,55887.06%124
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)68,62912.94%3
Total:530,187100.00%12716133


President Joe Biden won every county and 87.06% of the vote, but, despite having already dropped out, U.S. RepresentativeDean Phillips won three delegates. Congressman Phillips was still on the ballot on election day, and gained his delegates by meeting the 15% threshold of votes needed to receive a delegate in a congressional district in the state's2nd,6th, and14th districts.[7]

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Ohio Republican presidential primary

The Ohio Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries inArizona,Florida, andIllinois.

Ohio Republican primary, March 19, 2024[8]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump896,05979.21%7979
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)162,56314.37%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)38,0893.37%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)20,0271.77%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)14,4501.28%
Total:1,131,188100.00%7979

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[9]Solid RDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections[10]Likely RApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11]Safe RJune 13, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12]Likely RDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis[13]Likely RNovember 4, 2024
CNN[14]Solid RJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist[15]Safe RNovember 1, 2024
538[16]Likely RJune 11, 2024
NBC News[17]Safe ROctober 6, 2024
YouGov[18]Safe RNovember 1, 2024
Split Ticket[19]Likely RNovember 1, 2024

Democratic ballot access controversy

[edit]

Due to theDemocratic National Convention taking place on August 19, 2024, which occurred more than a week after the August 7 deadline to certify a presidential candidate for office, under ordinary rules, the eventual Democratic nominee would be disqualified from the ballot.[20][21] Efforts to create an emergency fix had stalled in theOhio Legislature. The state House adjourned without considering a fix on May 8.[22] On May 21,Ohio Secretary of StateFrank LaRose provided an update confirming that efforts to rectify the situation were at an impasse, as the state legislature would not take up the issue and theOhio Democratic Party had offered no "legally acceptable remedy" up to that point. He further clarified that if the party did not work toward a solution themselves, their presidential nominee would not be listed on the November ballot.[23]

On May 23,GovernorMike DeWine called for a special legislative session and tasked lawmakers with ensuring Biden's inclusion on the ballot. Republican leaders in the state senate, with DeWine's support, hoped to pass a bill that will tie solving the ballot access issue to a ban on foreign contributions toward ballot measure efforts in the state.Ohio Democratic Party chairElizabeth Walters and state House minority leaderAllison Russo had signaled their opposition to the ban, which was described as apoison pill amendment; a spokesperson for DeWine later said that a bill dealing only with the ballot access issue could also be considered.[24]

After the state legislature appeared to be unable to address the issue, the Democratic Party announced on May 28 that a virtual roll call nomination, similar to the process used by the party in 2020, would take place two weeks before the2024 Democratic National Convention to nominate Biden and meet Ohio's deadline.[25] Nonetheless, the Ohio legislature passed a bill on June 1 extending the deadline to August 23,[26] which DeWine signed on June 2.[27] However, because the law did not take effect until September 1, Democrats continued with the roll call to meet the original deadline.[28]

Green Party ballot access controversy

[edit]

Green Party nomineeJill Stein also appeared on the ballot, though votes for her did not count, due to her nominating a running mate after the state deadline. Citing the law that allowed Joe Biden to be nominated, the Green Party attempted to use this exact ruling in their favor to swap VP candidates. However, VP candidate Anita Rios testified in federal court that she had not signed the withdraw form, and that someone unknown to the Stein campaign had submitted a forgery of her signature. The Green Party argued that the Secretary of State should never have accepted the withdraw letter, saying the signature of Rios was a PDF copy from her 2014 governorship candidacy paperwork.[29] The Stein campaign stated that a letter to the Ohio Secretary of State requesting removal from the ballot was "fraudulent".[30]

A hearing to restore ballot access for Stein was scheduled for October 22, in which the federal courts abstained from making a ruling on the case. The Stein campaign and the Ohio Green Party announced that they would continue the lawsuit to make the votes for Stein-Rios in Ohio count.[31]

Polling

[edit]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
[a]
Margin
270ToWinOctober 22 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202444.3%52.0%3.7%Trump +7.7%
538through November 4, 2024November 4, 202443.4%52.3%4.3%Trump +8.8%
The Hill/DDHQthrough November 3, 2024November 3, 202444.6%52.2%3.2%Trump +7.6%
Average44.1%52.2%3.7%Trump +8.1%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[32]November 3–4, 20241,022 (LV)± 3.0%54%45%1%
Trafalgar Group (R)[33]November 2–4, 20241,095 (LV)± 2.9%52%45%3%[c]
Emerson College[34][A]October 30 − November 2, 2024900 (LV)± 3.2%54%42%4%[d]
54.7%[e]43.5%1.9%
Morning Consult[35]October 23 − November 1, 20241,254 (LV)± 3.0%53%44%3%
Trafalgar Group (R)[36][B]October 25–28, 20241,127 (LV)± 2.9%52%46%2%[f]
ActiVote[37]October 5−28, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%
CES/YouGov[38]October 1–25, 20243,120 (A)52%45%3%
3,091 (LV)52%45%3%
J.L. Partners[39]October 22−24, 2024997 (LV)± 3.1%53%44%3%
University of Akron[40]September 12 – October 24, 20241,241 (RV)± 2.8%51%44%5%
Bowling Green State University/YouGov[41]October 10−21, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.6%50%43%5%[g]
Morning Consult[35]October 6−15, 20241,243 (LV)± 3.0%52%45%3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[42][C]October 9−14, 20241,051 (LV)± 3.0%51%44%5%[c]
Washington Post[43]October 3–7, 20241,002 (RV)± 3.5%51%44%5%[h]
1,002 (LV)51%45%4%[i]
Marist College[44]October 3–7, 20241,511 (RV)± 3.0%52%46%2%[j]
1,327 (LV)± 3.2%52%46%2%[j]
ActiVote[45]August 28 – September 30, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%
Bowling Green State University/YouGov[46]September 18–27, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.6%51%44%5%[k]
New York Times/Siena College[47]September 21–26, 2024687 (RV)± 4.0%49%45%6%
687 (LV)50%44%6%
RMG Research[48][D]September 18−20, 2024757 (LV)± 3.5%54%43%3%[l]
Morning Consult[35]September 9−18, 20241,488 (LV)± 3.0%52%43%5%
Morning Consult[35]August 30 – September 8, 20241,558 (LV)± 3.0%52%44%4%
Emerson College[49]September 3–5, 2024945 (LV)± 3.1%53%43%4%
54%[m]45%1%[i]
SoCal Strategies (R)[50][E]August 31 – September 1, 2024600 (LV)52%43%5%
August 23, 2024Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspendshis presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
ActiVote[51]August 2–22, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%56%44%
August 19–22, 2024Democratic National Convention
Rasmussen Reports (R)[52][F]August 13–17, 20241,267 (LV)51%44%5%
August 6, 2024Kamala Harrisselects Gov.Tim Walz as her running mate.
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[53][G]July 23–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%52%42%6%
July 21, 2024Joe Biden announceshis withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declaresher candidacy for president.
July 15–19, 2024Republican National Convention
July 13, 2024attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Ohio Northern University[54]March 6–11, 20241,241 (LV)± 3.3%51%38%11%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[32]November 3–4, 20241,022 (LV)± 3.0%54%45%1%0%
Focaldata[55]October 3 – November 1, 20242,161 (LV)53%44%0%1%2%
1,867 (RV)± 2.1%52%45%0%2%1%
2,161 (A)53%42%0%2%3%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[56][H]October 19–22, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%52%44%1%1%2%[f]
New York Times/Siena College[47]September 21–26, 2024687 (RV)± 4.0%47%44%2%2%5%
687 (LV)49%43%2%2%4%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
Miami University[57]October 28–30, 2024859 (RV)± 5.0%49%46%0%0%0%5%
851 (LV)50%47%0%0%0%3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[52][F]August 13–17, 20241,267 (LV)50%42%4%1%0%3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[53][G]July 23–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%39%9%1%1%2%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
National Public Affairs[58]May 28–29, 2024801 (LV)± 3.5%54%46%
John Zogby Strategies[59][I]April 13–21, 2024643 (LV)52%42%6%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[60]March 13–15, 2024818 (RV)± 3.4%51%40%9%
Ohio Northern University[54]March 6–11, 20241,241 (LV)± 3.3%50%38%12%
Emerson College[61][J]March 7–10, 20241,300 (RV)± 2.6%50%41%9%
55%[m]45%
Emerson College[62][J]January 23–25, 20241,844 (RV)± 2.3%47%36%17%[n]
Emerson College/WJW-TV[63]November 10–13, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%50%38%12%
Data for Progress (D)[64]October 31 – November 2, 2023597 (LV)± 4.0%51%43%6%
Ohio Northern University[65]October 16–19, 2023668 (RV)± 3.8%45%40%15%[o]
Emerson College[66]October 2–4, 2023438 (RV)± 4.5%45%33%23%
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[67]September 16–19, 20231,559 (RV)48%43%9%
Ohio Northern University[68]July 17–26, 2023675 (RV)± 3.7%49%39%12%
Targoz Market Research[69]November 2–6, 2022505 (LV)± 4.3%57%40%3%
Emerson College[70]October 30 – November 1, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%38%12%
Ohio Northern University/Lucid[71]October 11–15, 2022668 (LV)55%35%10%
Emerson College[72]October 6–7, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%40%12%
Emerson College[73]September 12–13, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%40%10%
Echelon Insights[74]August 31 – September 7, 2022831 (LV)± 4.3%49%41%10%
Emerson College[75]August 15–16, 2022925 (LV)± 3.2%53%39%8%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[76][K]July 22–24, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%42%44%14%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Marist College[77]June 3–6, 20241,137 (RV)± 3.6%48%41%5%1%1%4%
National Public Affairs[58]May 28–29, 2024801 (LV)± 3.5%48%40%7%2%3%
East Carolina University[78]March 8–11, 20241,298 (LV)± 3.2%48%38%5%1%1%7%
Emerson College[61][J]March 7–10, 20241,300 (RV)± 2.6%47%38%6%1%1%7%
Emerson College/WJW-TV[63]November 10–13, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%45%31%8%1%2%13%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden. vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Ohio Northern University[54]March 6–11, 20241,241 (LV)± 3.3%44%32%13%11%
Ohio Northern University[65]October 16–19, 2023668 (RV)± 3.8%42%35%11%12%[g]

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Cornel
West
Green
Other /
Undecided
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[67]September 16–19, 20231,559 (RV)45%36%9%10%
42%34%6%18%[p]
Suffolk University/USA Today[79]July 9–12, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%44%38%2%16%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Gavin
Newsom
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Ohio Northern University[54]March 6–11, 20241,241 (LV)± 3.3%51%33%16%

Donald Trump vs. Gretchen Whitmer

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Gretchen
Whitmer
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Ohio Northern University[54]March 6–11, 20241,241 (LV)± 3.3%51%34%15%

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[59][I]April 13–21, 2024643 (LV)47%39%14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[59][I]April 13–21, 2024643 (LV)55%34%11%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Nikki
Haley
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Ohio Northern University[65]October 16–19, 2023668 (RV)± 3.8%34%36%30%[q]
Ohio Northern University[68]July 17–26, 2023675 (RV)± 3.7%38%38%24%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Ohio Northern University[65]October 16–19, 2023668 (RV)± 3.8%38%41%21%[o]
Ohio Northern University[68]July 17–26, 2023675 (RV)± 3.7%41%39%20%
Emerson College[72]October 6–7, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%49%38%13%
Emerson College[73]September 12–13, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%38%14%
Echelon Insights[74]August 31 – September 7, 2022831 (LV)± 4.3%46%40%14%

Ron Desantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Ron
Desantis
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Cornel
West
Green
Other /
Undecided
Suffolk University/USA Today[79]July 9–12, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%39%37%2%22%

Chris Christie vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Chris
Christie
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Ohio Northern University[68]July 17–26, 2023675 (RV)± 3.7%33%39%28%

Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mike
Pence
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Ohio Northern University[65]October 16–19, 2023668 (RV)± 3.8%38%38%24%[q]
Ohio Northern University[68]July 17–26, 2023675 (RV)± 3.7%37%38%25%

Tim Scott vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Scott
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Ohio Northern University[68]July 17–26, 2023675 (RV)± 3.7%38%39%23%

Generic Republican vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Causeway Solutions[80]May 19–27, 20231,639 (RV)± 2.5%45%33%22%

Results

[edit]
State Senate district results
State House district results
2024 United States presidential election in Ohio[81]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican3,180,11655.14%+1.87%
Democratic2,533,69943.93%−1.31%
Libertarian28,2000.49%−0.65%
Independent
  • Richard Duncan
  • Mitch Bupp
12,8050.22%+0.22%
American Solidarity
10,1970.18%+0.18%
Green
  • Jill Stein (votes not counted)
  • Anita Rios (votes not counted)
N/A[r]
Write-in2,7710.05%+0.02%
Total votes5,767,788100.00%N/A

By county

[edit]
CountyDonald Trump
Republican
Kamala Harris
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams10,26982.62%2,09816.88%620.50%8,17165.74%12,429
Allen33,20171.28%12,75427.38%6211.34%20,44743.90%46,576
Ashland19,86374.31%6,54424.48%3231.21%13,31949.83%26,730
Ashtabula27,65663.47%15,34535.22%5741.31%12,31128.25%43,575
Athens11,36943.70%14,13454.33%5111.97%−2,765−10.63%26,014
Auglaize20,98881.57%4,44217.26%3001.17%16,54664.31%25,730
Belmont22,75873.30%8,08026.02%2110.68%14,67847.28%31,049
Brown17,25780.22%4,06918.92%1860.86%13,18861.30%21,512
Butler114,83162.66%66,71336.41%1,7080.93%48,11826.25%183,252
Carroll10,63476.76%3,07122.17%1481.07%7,56354.59%13,853
Champaign15,33474.57%4,94424.04%2861.39%10,39050.53%20,564
Clark40,40363.92%21,84734.56%9561.52%18,55629.36%63,206
Clermont76,96467.11%36,13031.50%1,5891.39%40,83435.61%114,683
Clinton15,98476.59%4,63322.20%2531.21%11,35154.39%20,870
Columbiana35,60773.80%12,06425.01%5751.19%23,54348.79%48,246
Coshocton12,36275.29%3,83523.36%2231.35%8,52751.93%16,420
Crawford15,40275.74%4,68323.03%2511.23%10,71952.71%20,336
Cuyahoga195,16533.74%376,38565.08%6,8201.18%−181,220−31.16%581,515
Darke22,23482.01%4,58316.90%2951.09%17,65165.11%27,112
Defiance13,30269.07%5,66729.42%2911.51%7,63539.65%19,260
Delaware70,44852.61%61,65746.04%1,8011.34%8,7916.57%134,383
Erie22,49356.32%16,87142.24%5731.44%5,62214.08%39,937
Fairfield51,99961.57%31,69537.53%7630.90%20,30424.04%84,457
Fayette9,70676.94%2,77321.98%1361.08%6,93354.96%12,615
Franklin210,83034.89%380,51862.98%12,8362.13%−169,688−28.09%604,184
Fulton15,89370.44%6,37428.25%2971.31%9,51942.19%22,564
Gallia10,31479.13%2,59219.89%1280.98%7,72259.24%13,034
Geauga33,84461.32%20,60437.33%7411.35%13,24023.99%55,189
Greene53,39959.07%35,57539.36%1,4211.57%17,82419.71%90,707
Guernsey13,31475.54%4,15423.57%1580.89%9,16051.97%17,626
Hamilton172,36541.87%233,36056.69%5,9311.44%−60,995−14.82%413,213
Hancock26,05268.53%11,46730.16%4991.31%14,58538.37%38,018
Hardin9,91176.78%2,86322.18%1341.04%7,04854.60%12,908
Harrison5,48477.02%1,55921.90%771.08%3,92555.12%7,120
Henry10,87372.61%3,90526.08%1971.31%6,96846.53%14,975
Highland16,26981.32%3,60918.04%1270.64%12,66063.28%20,005
Hocking9,67971.63%3,70427.41%1290.96%5,97544.22%13,512
Holmes10,38483.84%1,85414.97%1481.19%8,53068.87%12,386
Huron19,48471.26%7,49627.41%3641.33%11,98843.85%27,344
Jackson11,24978.49%2,95320.60%1300.91%8,29657.89%14,332
Jefferson22,31771.03%8,59227.35%5081.62%13,72543.68%31,417
Knox23,11271.61%8,69826.95%4671.44%14,41444.66%32,277
Lake72,92456.46%54,48442.18%1,7511.36%18,44014.28%129,159
Lawrence20,01374.58%6,51424.27%3091.15%13,49950.31%26,836
Licking61,35964.20%32,83234.35%1,3901.45%28,52729.85%95,581
Logan18,18277.33%5,02721.38%3031.29%13,15555.95%23,512
Lorain83,29752.12%74,20746.44%2,3031.44%9,0905.68%159,807
Lucas82,39842.81%106,32055.23%3,7711.96%−23,922−12.42%192,489
Madison14,73770.98%5,71327.52%3121.50%9,02443.46%20,762
Mahoning61,24954.09%50,63644.72%1,3481.19%10,6139.37%113,233
Marion19,21969.96%7,90228.77%3491.27%11,31741.19%27,470
Medina66,30861.67%39,77136.99%1,4381.34%26,53724.68%107,517
Meigs8,12777.98%2,20221.13%930.89%5,92556.85%10,422
Mercer19,71082.72%3,86516.22%2511.06%15,84566.50%23,826
Miami42,67771.80%15,96926.87%7921.33%26,70844.93%59,438
Monroe5,39679.18%1,33619.60%831.22%4,06059.58%6,815
Montgomery125,56648.95%126,76749.41%4,2111.64%−1,201−0.46%256,544
Morgan5,16875.97%1,56022.93%751.10%3,60853.04%6,803
Morrow14,60977.17%4,10021.66%2231.17%10,50955.51%18,932
Muskingum28,14771.45%10,87427.60%3730.95%17,27343.85%39,394
Noble5,05081.66%1,06917.29%651.05%3,98164.37%6,184
Ottawa14,87261.86%8,86636.88%3041.26%6,00624.98%24,042
Paulding7,20377.22%1,98721.30%1381.48%5,21655.92%9,328
Perry13,06276.81%3,80022.35%1430.84%9,26254.46%17,005
Pickaway21,60773.46%7,39725.15%4091.39%14,21048.31%29,413
Pike9,35276.39%2,79322.81%970.27%6,55953.58%12,242
Portage47,68157.02%34,75941.57%1,1791.41%12,92215.45%83,619
Preble17,14678.77%4,34319.95%2771.28%12,80358.82%21,766
Putnam16,57683.55%2,99615.10%2681.35%13,58068.45%19,840
Richland41,29870.76%16,59128.43%4730.81%24,70742.33%58,362
Ross22,80168.96%9,84629.78%4181.26%12,95539.18%33,065
Sandusky19,31164.74%10,13933.99%3771.27%9,17230.75%29,827
Scioto22,97873.59%8,02125.69%2260.72%14,95747.90%31,225
Seneca17,24167.87%7,76530.57%3981.56%9,47637.30%25,404
Shelby20,74081.78%4,35017.15%2721.07%16,39064.63%25,362
Stark111,47860.52%71,09038.60%1,6250.88%40,38821.92%184,193
Summit125,91045.88%145,00552.83%3,5391.29%−19,095−6.95%274,454
Trumbull55,98357.66%39,75840.95%1,3551.39%16,22516.71%97,096
Tuscarawas30,65270.94%12,03227.84%5271.22%18,62043.10%43,211
Union23,98263.84%12,93434.43%6511.73%11,04829.41%37,567
Van Wert11,61678.45%3,00020.26%1901.29%8,61658.19%14,806
Vinton4,53178.58%1,16920.27%661.15%3,36258.31%5,766
Warren91,13264.74%47,12833.48%2,4991.78%44,00431.26%140,759
Washington22,16171.20%8,60027.63%3621.17%13,56143.57%31,123
Wayne36,76469.17%15,89829.91%4880.92%20,86639.26%53,150
Williams13,46173.50%4,64425.36%2091.14%8,81748.14%18,314
Wood36,87754.56%30,01644.41%6931.03%6,86110.15%67,586
Wyandot8,56474.83%2,73123.86%1501.31%5,83350.97%11,445
Totals3,180,11754.83%2,533,70043.69%86,0121.48%646,41711.14%5,799,829
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won 11 of 15 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[82]

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
1st46.34%52.69%Greg Landsman
2nd73.41%25.83%Brad Wenstrup (118th Congress)
David Taylor (119th Congress)
3rd29.37%69.61%Joyce Beatty
4th67.94%31.18%Jim Jordan
5th64.18%34.91%Bob Latta
6th66.45%32.77%Michael Rulli
7th54.90%44.26%Max Miller
8th61.40%37.72%Warren Davidson
9th52.89%46.18%Marcy Kaptur
10th52.37%46.64%Mike Turner
11th22.11%77.18%Shontel Brown
12th65.93%33.21%Troy Balderson
13th49.53%49.57%Emilia Sykes
14th58.54%40.61%David Joyce
15th54.10%44.89%Mike Carey

Analysis

[edit]

A heavily populatedMidwestern state located mainly in theRust Belt, with thesouthern portion of the state having cultural influence from theUpper South andBible Belt, Ohio had been considered a vitalbellwether state for decades and had been decided by single digits at the presidential level since1992, but has been trending towards the political right in recent years and is now considered a moderatelyred state, similarly toFlorida andAlaska. The state voted significantly more Republican than the U.S. at large whenDonald Trump carried the state by just over eight points in the previous two elections, despite polls showing a tight race in both cycles, especially in2020, when the state backed the losing presidential candidate for the first time in60 years. This was the first time since1988 that the state voted Republican in three consecutive presidential elections, and the first time since2012 that it voted for the winner of the national popular vote.The GOP's success in Ohio during the2022 midterms further testified to the state's rightward shift and the end of its swing-state status at the presidential level. However, Democratic policies saw success in 2023 when a majority of voters voted againstraising the threshold for voter-led initiatives to 60%, and then voted in favor ofenshrining abortion rights andlegalizing recreational marijuana. Ohio was widely expected to be carried again by Trump in the November general election.[83]JD Vance's selection was seen as a strategic effort to bolster support in theMidwest (especially his home state) and among Trump supporters.

Independent candidateRobert F. Kennedy Jr. gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot.[84]

The election was held concurrently with aU.S. Senate race in Ohio, in which Republican nomineeBernie Moreno unseated Democratic incumbentSherrod Brown; this was partly credited to Trump's overall success in the state.

Exit poll data

[edit]
2024 presidential election in Ohio voter demographics[85]
Demographic subgroupTrumpHarris% of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals79222
Moderates455441
Conservatives94637
Party
Democrats79231
Republicans95541
Independents504828
Gender
Men603947
Women504953
Race
White603985
Black10898
Latino50453
AsianN/AN/A2
All other racesN/AN/A2
Education
Never attended college702919
Some college534625
Associate degree653415
Bachelor's degree495024
Advanced degree396018
Gender by race
White men643641
White women564344
Black men21783
Black women4955
Latino menN/AN/A2
Latina womenN/AN/A1
All other races47514
Area type
Urban386131
Suburban574244
Rural722625
Income
<$30,000524711
$30,000 – $49,999623416
$50,000 – $99,999495032
$100,000 – $199,999594030
≥$200,000564412
Most important issue
Democracy257432
Economy792034
Abortion297015
Immigration93512
Foreign policyN/AN/A3
Biden job approval
Strongly approve19916
Somewhat approve69423
Somewhat disapprove43559
Strongly disapprove96350
Abortion should be:
Legal in all cases128729
Legal in most cases465330
Illegal in most cases94528
Illegal in all cases9179
Democracy in the United States is:
Very threatened653437
Somewhat threatened505037
Somewhat secure494819
Very secure45557
First time voting?
Yes59407
No554593
White born-again orevangelical Christian?
Yes881228
No435672
Union household?
Yes544517
No564383
Mike DeWine job approval
Approve544553
Disapprove574340

County swings

[edit]

Although no counties flipped, all but three counties in the state shifted rightward.Appalachian Ohio in particular shifted further to the right, with onlyAthens County voting for Harris.

Mahoning County voted for Trump by over 9%, shifting rightward by 7%, the largest shift in the state. Mahoning County also voted for Bernie Moreno by 0.2% in the concurrent U.S. Senate election. The county had voted Democratic from 1976 to 2016, even voting forWalter Mondale in1984, despite Mondale losing 49 states that year.

Only three counties in Ohio shifted leftward, includingDelaware County, thehighest-income county in Ohio. This does support exit polls showing Harris improved among higher-income voters, particularly White women with college degrees.

Harris lost Delaware county by less than 7%, the closest a Democratic nominee has come to winning the county since 1932, with Delaware County voting to the left of the state. Sherrod Brown nearly won Delaware County, losing it by less than 2%, also to the left of the state.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^abcdefghijklmnopqrKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ab"Other" with 2%
  4. ^"Someone else" with 2%
  5. ^With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  6. ^ab"Other" with 1%
  7. ^ab"Some other candidate" with 2%
  8. ^"Someone else" & "Would not vote" with 1% each
  9. ^ab"Someone else" with 1%
  10. ^ab"Another party's candidates" with 1%
  11. ^"Some other candidate" with 1%
  12. ^"Some other candidate" with 2%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  13. ^abWith voters who lean towards a given candidate
  14. ^"Someone else" with 9%
  15. ^ab"Some other candidate" with 5%
  16. ^Joe Manchin with 6%
  17. ^ab"Some other candidate" with 8%
  18. ^Appeared on the ballot, but votes were not counted. Some counties tallied votes as "Jill Stein/Anita Rios," and others counted as "withdrawn candidate." Some counties did not report any votes for Stein/Rios. Tallied votes at 39,044, or 0.68%

Partisan clients

  1. ^Poll sponsored byThe Hill
  2. ^Poll sponsored by Ohio Press Network
  3. ^Poll sponsored byAmerican Thinker
  4. ^Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  5. ^Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
  6. ^abPoll sponsored byNumbersUSA
  7. ^abPoll commissioned byAARP
  8. ^Poll sponsored by the Senate Opportunity Fund
  9. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign
  10. ^abcPoll sponsored byNexstar Media Group
  11. ^Poll conducted for theJohn Bolton Super PAC

References

[edit]
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