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2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi

← 2020November 5, 20242028 →
Turnout57.5%
 
NomineeDonald TrumpKamala Harris
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaCalifornia
Running mateJD VanceTim Walz
Electoral vote60
Popular vote747,744466,668
Percentage60.89%38.00%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Data

  
  


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Mississippi
U.S. President
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House

The2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Mississippi voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. Mississippi's six votes in the Electoral College were unaffected byreapportionment after the2020 United States census.[1]

Donald Trump ran on the Republican ballot for a third consecutive time, winning the state by a margin of 22.9%, up 6.4 points from his marginfour years earlier. Trump was the first person to receive 60% of the vote in a presidential election in Mississippi sinceRonald Reagan in1984. Before the election, most news organizations considered Mississippi a safe win for Trump.

Turnout noticeably fell, with Harris receiving more than 70,000 fewer votes than Biden, and fewer raw votes thanHillary Clinton in2016. This was the first time since2004 that the Democratic presidential nominee won less than 40% of the vote in Mississippi, a state that is 38%Black. All but one county (Sharkey County) shifted towards Republicans, and Trump flipped somemajority-Black counties.

Primary elections

[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Mississippi Republican presidential primary

The Mississippi Republican primary was held on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries inHawaii,Idaho,Missouri, andWashington. 40 delegates to theRepublican National Convention will be allocated to presidential candidates.[2]

Mississippi Republican primary, March 12, 2024[3]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump229,19892.50%40040
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)13,4375.42%000
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)4,0421.63%000
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)1,0960.44%000
Total:247,773100.00%40040

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary

The 2024 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary was held on March 12, 2024, alongside theDemocrats Abroad,Georgia,Mississippi, andWashington primaries, andNorthern Mariana Islands caucuses. 40 delegates to theDemocratic National Convention will be allocated to presidential candidates.[4]

In Mississippi, candidates have to pay a filing fee of $2,500 and gather at least 500 signatures to make the primary ballot.[5] Incumbent PresidentJoe Biden won the primary, being the only candidate that met these requirements.[6][better source needed]

Winner

[edit]

Results

Mississippi Democratic primary, March 12, 2024[7]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)87,92298.7%35
Write-in votes1,1871.3%
Total:89,109100.00%3535


General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[8]Solid RDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections[9]Solid RApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10]Safe RJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11]Safe RDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis[12]Solid RDecember 30, 2023
CNN[13]Solid RJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist[14]Safe RJune 12, 2024
538[15]Solid RSeptember 20, 2024
RCP[16]Solid RJune 26, 2024
NBC News[17]Safe ROctober 6, 2024
YouGov[18]Likely RNovember 1, 2024
Split Ticket[19]Safe RNovember 1, 2024

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[20][A]April 13–21, 2024423 (LV)51%42%7%
Echelon Insights[21][B]August 31 – September 7, 2022409 (LV)± 7.8%54%36%10%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[20][A]April 13–21, 2024423 (LV)50%37%13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[20][A]April 13–21, 2024423 (LV)52%35%13%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Echelon Insights[21][B]August 31 – September 7, 2022409 (LV)± 7.8%49%37%14%

Early voting

[edit]

A study by the Center for Election Innovation & Research in July 2024 found that Mississippi is one of only three remaining states (along with Alabama and New Hampshire) to offer no early in-person voting option for the 2024 general election. The state also requires an eligible reason to vote by mail.[22]

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi[23]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican747,74460.89%+3.29%
Democratic466,66838.00%−3.06%
Independent5,3870.44%N/A
Libertarian2,5360.21%−0.40%
Green1,8730.15%+0.04%
Socialism and Liberation1,0750.09%N/A
Constitution1,0300.08%N/A
American Solidarity
1,0070.08%−0.01%
Independent
6880.06%N/A
Total votes1,228,008100.00%N/A

By county

[edit]
County[24][25]Donald Trump
Republican
Kamala Harris
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams5,08142.60%6,74356.53%1040.87%-1,662-13.93%11,928
Alcorn12,65783.75%2,32815.40%1270.84%10,32968.35%15,112
Amite4,48465.80%2,24632.96%851.25%2,23832.84%6,815
Attala4,72361.31%2,93038.04%500.65%1,79323.28%7,703
Benton2,53565.34%1,31833.97%270.70%1,21731.37%3,880
Bolivar3,94337.79%6,41961.51%730.70%-2,476-23.73%10,435
Calhoun4,44373.63%1,54725.64%440.73%2,89647.99%6,034
Carroll3,73071.81%1,43127.55%330.64%2,29944.26%5,194
Chickasaw4,07956.39%3,09042.71%650.90%98913.67%7,234
Choctaw2,88174.06%96524.81%441.13%1,91649.25%3,890
Claiborne55815.76%2,95083.31%330.93%-2,392-67.55%3,541
Clarke5,09367.27%2,43032.10%480.63%2,66335.17%7,571
Clay4,01744.35%4,96054.76%800.88%-943-10.41%9,057
Coahoma2,00829.57%4,71169.38%711.05%-2,703-39.81%6,790
Copiah6,13452.58%5,42646.52%1050.90%7086.07%11,665
Covington5,86966.23%2,92132.96%710.80%2,94833.27%8,861
DeSoto48,06460.78%29,02336.70%1,9952.52%19,04124.08%79,082
Forrest16,57958.24%11,47540.31%4121.45%5,10417.93%28,466
Franklin2,83169.63%1,21329.83%220.54%1,61839.79%4,066
George9,85889.06%1,13810.28%730.66%8,72078.78%11,069
Greene4,77684.55%83514.78%380.67%3,94169.76%5,649
Grenada5,65157.86%4,06041.57%550.56%1,59116.29%9,766
Hancock16,68478.79%4,26220.13%2291.08%12,42258.66%21,175
Harrison48,49763.88%26,55534.98%8711.15%21,94228.90%75,923
Hinds22,81626.28%62,84072.37%1,1741.35%-40,024-46.09%86,830
Holmes1,24318.47%5,42080.53%671.00%-4,177-62.07%6,730
Humphreys99028.55%2,44370.44%351.01%-1,453-41.90%3,468
Issaquena29647.59%28746.14%396.27%91.45%622
Itawamba9,52389.66%1,0279.67%710.67%8,49679.99%10,621
Jackson36,37669.41%15,46929.52%5651.08%20,90739.89%52,410
Jasper4,11852.19%3,72247.17%500.63%3965.02%7,890
Jefferson54116.40%2,72782.66%310.94%-2,186-66.26%3,299
Jefferson Davis2,30242.80%3,04156.55%350.65%-739-13.74%5,378
Jones20,26573.01%7,27226.20%2180.79%12,99346.81%27,755
Kemper1,69141.39%2,38158.27%140.34%-690-16.89%4,086
Lafayette14,05060.02%8,95638.26%4031.72%5,09421.76%23,409
Lamar20,77573.75%7,03824.98%3581.27%13,73748.76%28,171
Lauderdale16,48760.16%10,67738.96%2430.89%5,81021.20%27,407
Lawrence4,11367.95%1,89931.37%410.68%2,21436.58%6,053
Leake5,14361.37%3,18237.97%550.66%1,96123.40%8,380
Lee24,33968.87%10,61630.04%3831.08%13,72338.83%35,338
Leflore2,85430.29%6,47668.74%910.97%-3,622-38.45%9,421
Lincoln11,43272.35%4,26226.97%1080.68%7,17045.37%15,802
Lowndes13,08753.58%11,09645.43%2430.99%1,9918.15%24,426
Madison32,33358.04%22,70040.75%6771.22%9,63317.29%55,710
Marion7,87470.38%3,21528.74%990.88%4,65941.64%11,188
Marshall7,97753.24%6,88845.97%1180.79%1,0897.27%14,983
Monroe10,86167.59%5,09031.68%1180.73%5,77135.91%16,069
Montgomery2,65860.08%1,73739.26%290.66%92120.82%4,424
Neshoba8,15475.08%2,62224.14%850.78%5,53250.93%10,861
Newton6,64171.23%2,60327.92%790.85%4,03843.31%9,323
Noxubee1,15125.87%3,26973.48%290.65%-2,118-47.61%4,449
Oktibbeha8,90149.31%8,85149.03%2991.66%500.28%18,051
Panola8,20256.87%6,06142.03%1591.10%2,14114.85%14,422
Pearl River20,43882.84%3,98216.14%2511.02%16,45666.70%24,671
Perry4,42579.89%1,07819.46%360.65%3,34760.43%5,539
Pike7,94351.29%7,40247.80%1400.90%5413.49%15,485
Pontotoc11,74083.45%2,21415.74%1140.81%9,52667.71%14,068
Prentiss8,58182.66%1,72716.64%730.70%6,85466.02%10,381
Quitman90233.69%1,72564.44%501.87%-823-30.74%2,677
Rankin50,89673.04%18,06025.92%7221.04%32,83647.13%69,678
Scott6,09861.65%3,72937.70%640.65%2,36923.95%9,891
Sharkey55131.20%1,20168.01%140.79%-650-36.81%1,766
Simpson7,55268.07%3,47931.36%630.57%4,07336.71%11,094
Smith6,14680.07%1,48619.36%440.57%4,66060.71%7,676
Stone6,21478.47%1,62020.46%851.07%4,59458.01%7,919
Sunflower2,51531.93%5,31267.45%490.62%-2,797-35.51%7,876
Tallahatchie2,33346.55%2,63052.47%490.98%-297-5.93%5,012
Tate9,18571.42%3,55527.64%1210.94%5,63043.78%12,861
Tippah7,98483.24%1,54716.13%600.63%6,43767.12%9,591
Tishomingo8,06489.10%92110.18%650.72%7,14378.93%9,050
Tunica79929.95%1,83768.85%321.20%-1,038-38.91%2,668
Union10,55984.62%1,80714.48%1120.90%8,75270.14%12,478
Walthall4,11463.01%2,35536.07%600.92%1,75926.94%6,529
Warren9,40751.41%8,68347.45%2081.14%7243.96%18,298
Washington4,64931.97%9,73566.95%1561.07%-5,086-34.98%14,540
Wayne6,01365.94%3,02833.21%780.86%2,98532.73%9,119
Webster4,19582.34%87217.11%280.55%3,32365.22%5,095
Wilkinson1,07536.68%1,81761.99%391.33%-742-25.32%2,931
Winston4,92258.71%3,39240.46%700.83%1,53018.25%8,384
Yalobusha3,51859.85%2,28938.94%711.21%1,22920.91%5,878
Yazoo4,55850.81%4,34248.40%710.79%2162.41%8,971
Totals747,74460.89%466,66838.00%13,5961.11%281,07622.89%1,228,008

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won three of four congressional districts.[26]

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
1st68%31%Trent Kelly
2nd39%60%Bennie Thompson
3rd64%35%Michael Guest
4th71%28%Mike Ezell

Analysis

[edit]

Though Mississippi has voted to the left of its bordering states in recent presidential elections, owing mainly to its largeAfrican-American minority, the state is located in theDeep South and therefore theBible Belt. One of the most socially conservative states in the nation, it has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate sinceSouthernerJimmy Carter's narrow statewide victory in1976, nor has it been competitive at this level sinceBill Clinton of neighboringArkansas fell five points short of carrying the state in1996.

Trump received 60.9% of the vote in Mississippi, winning the state by a 22.9% margin. Harris received 15% less total votes than Biden did, in large part with a decline in turnout from black majority counties on theMississippi Delta. Collectively, these counties saw a 8% drop in turnout compared to 2020.[27] Trump has flipped the majority black counties ofCopiah,Issaquena,Jasper,Pike,Warren, andYazoo, as well asMarshall andOktibbeha counties.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^abListed on the ballot without party affiliation.

Partisan clients

  1. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign
  2. ^abPoll sponsored by NetChoice

References

[edit]
  1. ^Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021)."Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats".NPR.Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. RetrievedAugust 20, 2021.
  2. ^"Mississippi Republican Presidential Nominating Process".thegreenpapers.com. March 5, 2023. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2023.
  3. ^"Mississippi Presidential Primary". The AP. May 2, 2024. RetrievedMay 9, 2024.
  4. ^"Mississippi Democratic Delegation 2024".www.thegreenpapers.com. RetrievedOctober 11, 2023.
  5. ^"Ballot access for presidential candidates".Ballotpedia. RetrievedJanuary 20, 2024.
  6. ^"2024 Candidate Qualifying List 1.15.2024"(PDF).Mississippi Secretary of State. January 15, 2024. RetrievedJanuary 17, 2024.
  7. ^"Mississippi Presidential Primary Election Results 2024".NBC News. RetrievedMarch 12, 2024.
  8. ^"2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings".cookpolitical.com.Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  9. ^"Presidential Ratings".insideelections.com.Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  10. ^"2024 Electoral College ratings".centerforpolitics.org.University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  11. ^"2024 presidential predictions".elections2024.thehill.com/.The Hill. December 14, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  12. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".projects.cnalysis.com/.CNalysis. December 30, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  13. ^"Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2024.
  14. ^"Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model".The Economist. RetrievedJune 12, 2024.
  15. ^Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024)."2024 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. Archived fromthe original on June 11, 2024. RetrievedSeptember 23, 2024.
  16. ^"2024 RCP Electoral College Map".RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. RetrievedJune 26, 2024.
  17. ^"Presidential Election Preview 2024".NBC News.
  18. ^"2024 Presidential Election Polls".YouGov.
  19. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
  20. ^abc"Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump".Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  21. ^abChavez, Krista (September 13, 2022)."New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech".NetChoice.
  22. ^"The Expansion of Voting Before Election Day, 2000–2024".The Center for Election Innovation & Research. RetrievedSeptember 7, 2024.
  23. ^Watson, Michael (December 2, 2024)."Certification of Vote for Electors for President and Vice President"(PDF).Secretary of State of Mississippi.Archived(PDF) from the original on June 15, 2025. RetrievedAugust 27, 2025.
  24. ^Watson, Michael (November 5, 2024)."Statewide Recapitulation Report"(PDF).Secretary of State of Mississippi.Archived(PDF) from the original on June 11, 2025. RetrievedAugust 28, 2025.
  25. ^Watson, Michael (November 3, 2024)."Pike Updated"(PDF).Secretary of State of Mississippi.Archived(PDF) from the original on June 15, 2025. RetrievedAugust 28, 2025.
  26. ^https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::2a63d0b3-58db-4e59-9b3b-436b221e078a
  27. ^Miller, Colin."Redistricter".redistricter.com. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2025.
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