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2024 United States presidential election in Maryland

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Main article:2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Maryland
← 2020November 5, 20242028 →
Turnout72.84%[1]Decrease 1.79pp
 
NomineeKamala HarrisDonald Trump
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateCaliforniaFlorida
Running mateTim WalzJD Vance
Electoral vote100
Popular vote1,902,5771,035,550
Percentage62.62%34.08%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Maryland
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
Government

The2024 United States presidential election in Maryland took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Maryland voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionment due to the2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]

Due to the progressive influence of theBaltimore-Washington metropolitan area—home to the majority of Maryland's population and most of Maryland's significant African American population—Democrats have consistently won Maryland's electoral votes by double-digit margins since1992. While regions likeWestern Maryland and theEastern Shore remain more rural and conservative, their impact is outweighed by the state's urban centers. In 2020,Joe Biden from neighboringDelaware won Maryland by 33 points. Maryland was widely expected to remain a safeblue state in 2024.[3]

Harris comfortably won the state by about 28.5%, but by a margin almost 5 points lower than Joe Biden. Trump became the first Republican presidential nominee to surpass one million votes in Maryland sinceGeorge W. Bush in2004.Larry Hogan, who was concurrentlyrunning for the U.S. Senate, ran 17 points ahead of Trump.

Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without winningFrederick County sinceAbraham Lincoln in1860, and Harris the first unsuccessful Democrat to ever win the county.

With 1.1% of the total vote share, Maryland wasGreen Party candidateJill Stein's best state.[4]

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Maryland Democratic presidential primary

The Maryland Democratic primary was held on May 14, 2024,[5] alongside primaries inNebraska andWest Virginia.

Maryland Democratic primary, May 14, 2024[6]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)591,52387.1%9595
Uncommitted66,1689.8%
Marianne Williamson12,9351.9%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)8,1881.2%
Total:678,814100.0%9523118

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Maryland Republican presidential primary

The Maryland Republican primary was held on May 14, 2024,[5] alongside primaries inNebraska andWest Virginia.

Maryland Republican primary, May 14, 2024
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump205,99677.7%37037
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)56,50621.3%000
Uncommitted2,6071.0%000
Total:265,109100.0%37037

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[7]Solid DDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections[8]Solid DApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9]Safe DJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10]Safe DDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis[11]Solid DDecember 30, 2023
CNN[12]Solid DJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist[13]Safe DJune 12, 2024
538[14]Solid DJune 11, 2024
RCP[15]Solid DJune 26, 2024
NBC News[16]Safe DOctober 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Morning Consult[17]October 22–31, 2024490 (LV)± 5.0%64%31%5%
ActiVote[18]October 6–30, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%64%37%–
Braun Research[19][A]October 17–22, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.6%61%33%7%[b]
1,000 (RV)± 3.6%59%34%7%[c]
Emerson College[20]October 19–21, 2024865 (LV)± 3.2%64%34%2%
63%33%4%[d]
Morning Consult[17]October 10–15, 2024490 (LV)± 4.0%64%31%4%
ActiVote[21]September 8 – October 14, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%63%37%–
Braun Research[22][A]September 19–23, 20241,012 (LV)± 3.5%64%32%5%[e]
1,012 (RV)± 3.5%62%32%6%[f]
Morning Consult[17]September 9–18, 2024516 (LV)± 4.0%61%33%6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[23]September 16–17, 2024543 (RV)± 4.2%64%33%3%
Emerson College[24]September 12–13, 2024890 (LV)± 3.2%65%33%2%
63%32%5%
Morning Consult[17]August 30 – September 8, 2024516 (LV)± 4.0%62%34%4%
Gonzales Research[25]August 24–30, 2024820 (RV)± 3.5%56%35%10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[26][B]August 14–20, 2024700 (LV)± 4.0%64%32%4%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Jill
Stein
Green		Undecided
Chism Strategies[27]October 28–30, 2024510 (LV)± 4.34%56%33%0%0%1%10%[g]
YouGov[28][h]October 23–27, 2024500 (LV)± 5.2%61%34%–0%2%5%
University of Maryland, Baltimore County[29]September 23–28, 2024863 (LV)± 3.3%57%35%2%0%1%5%[i]
Braun Research[22][A]September 19–23, 20241,012 (LV)± 3.5%63%31%–1%1%5%[j]
1,012 (RV)± 3.5%61%31%–1%1%6%[k]
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[26][B]August 14–20, 2024700 (LV)± 4.0%59%29%5%1%1%5%
Hypothetical polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[30]June 19–20, 2024635 (V)± 3.9%56%30%15%
Emerson College[31]May 6–8, 20241,115 (RV)± 2.9%56%35%9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[32][C]May 6–7, 2024719 (V)± 3.7%60%32%8%
Emerson College[33]February 12–13, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%55%32%13%
Gonzales Research[34]January 23 – February 2, 2024815 (RV)± 3.5%53%32%15%
Gonzales Research[35]September 18–28, 2023818 (LV)± 3.5%56%30%13%
Gonzales Research[36]May 30 – June 6, 2023841 (RV)± 3.5%52%35%13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[31]May 6–8, 20241,115 (RV)± 2.9%50%33%6%4%1%6%
Emerson College[33]February 12−13, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%47%32%6%1%1%13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Other /
Undecided
Gonzales Research[34]January 23 – February 2, 2024815 (RV)± 3.5%45%28%18%9%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Gonzales Research[34]January 23 – February 2, 2024815 (RV)± 3.5%50%36%14%
Gonzales Research[35]September 18–28, 2023818 (LV)± 3.5%53%36%11%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Gonzales Research[35]September 18–28, 2023818 (LV)± 3.5%56%35%9%
Gonzales Research[36]May 30 – June 6, 2023841 (RV)± 3.5%51%37%12%

Joe Biden vs. Vivek Ramaswamy

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Vivek
Ramaswamy
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Gonzales Research[35]September 18–28, 2023818 (LV)± 3.5%56%29%15%

Results

[edit]
Legislative district results
2024 United States presidential election in Maryland[37][38]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic1,902,57762.62%−2.74%
Republican1,035,55034.08%+1.93%
Green33,1341.09%+0.57%
Independent28,8190.95%N/A
Libertarian15,5700.51%−0.59%
Write-in22,6840.75%+0.08%
Total votes3,038,334100.00%

By county

[edit]
CountyKamala Harris
Democratic		Donald Trump
Republican		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Allegany9,23128.72%22,14168.90%7652.38%-12,910-40.18%32,137
Anne Arundel171,94555.19%128,89241.37%10,7353.45%43,05313.82%311,572
Baltimore249,95860.53%149,56036.22%13,3973.24%100,39824.31%412,915
Baltimore City195,10984.55%27,98412.13%7,6613.32%167,12572.42%230,754
Calvert23,43843.25%29,36154.18%1,3922.57%-5,923-10.93%54,191
Caroline4,86029.76%11,05367.69%4172.55%-6,193-37.93%16,330
Carroll36,86735.91%62,27360.66%3,5113.42%-25,406-24.75%102,651
Cecil17,62833.37%33,87164.11%1,3322.52%-16,243-30.74%52,831
Charles63,45468.90%26,14528.39%2,4982.71%37,30940.51%92,097
Dorchester6,95441.46%9,39055.99%4282.55%-2,436-14.53%16,772
Frederick82,40952.79%68,75344.04%4,9523.17%13,6568.75%156,114
Garrett3,45621.82%11,98375.66%3992.52%-8,527-53.84%15,838
Harford62,45341.61%83,05055.33%4,5873.06%-20,597-13.72%150,090
Howard124,76468.44%49,42527.11%8,1024.44%75,33941.33%182,291
Kent5,25147.19%5,56149.97%3162.84%-310-2.78%11,128
Montgomery386,58174.45%112,63721.69%20,0033.85%273,94452.76%519,221
Prince George's347,03885.90%45,00811.14%11,9632.96%302,03074.76%404,009
Queen Anne's11,27334.85%20,20062.45%8742.70%-8,927-27.60%32,347
St. Mary's23,53139.91%33,58256.96%1,8413.12%-10,051-17.05%58,954
Somerset4,05439.99%5,80557.27%2782.74%-1,751-17.28%10,137
Talbot11,11948.70%11,12548.73%5862.57%-6-0.03%22,830
Washington27,26037.17%44,05460.07%2,0182.75%-16,794-22.90%73,332
Wicomico21,51345.86%24,06551.30%1,3342.84%-2,552-5.44%46,912
Worcester12,43137.81%19,63259.71%8182.49%-7,201-21.90%32,881
Totals1,902,57762.62%1,035,55034.08%100,2073.30%867,02728.54%3,038,334

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
County flips
Legend

  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Harris won seven of eight congressional districts.[39]

DistrictHarrisTrumpRepresentative
1st40.17%56.99%Andy Harris
2nd57.48%39.17%Dutch Ruppersberger (118th Congress)
Johnny Olszewski (119th Congress)
3rd59.84%36.30%John Sarbanes (118th Congress)
Sarah Elfreth (119th Congress)
4th85.00%11.77%Glenn Ivey
5th65.11%32.03%Steny Hoyer
6th51.25%45.51%David Trone (118th Congress)
April McClain Delaney (119th Congress)
7th77.68%19.12%Kweisi Mfume
8th76.01%20.17%Jamie Raskin

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdefghKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^"No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
  3. ^"No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
  4. ^"Someone else" with 2%; "Undecided" with 2%
  5. ^"No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
  6. ^"No opinion/Skipped" with 5%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
  7. ^"Someone else" with 4%
  8. ^Poll sponsored by theUniversity of Maryland, College Park.
  9. ^"Some other candidate" with 2%
  10. ^"No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
  11. ^"No opinion/Skipped" with 5%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%

Partisan clients

  1. ^abcPoll sponsored byThe Washington Post and theUniversity of Maryland, College Park
  2. ^abPoll commissioned byAARP
  3. ^This poll was commissioned byEMILY's List, which supports Biden.

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Official 2024 Presidential General Election turnout"(PDF). Maryland State Board of Elections. RetrievedDecember 5, 2024.
  2. ^Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021)."Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats".NPR.Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. RetrievedFebruary 7, 2023.
  3. ^"270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map".270toWin.com. RetrievedFebruary 15, 2024.
  4. ^"2024 Maryland Election Results".AP News. RetrievedMarch 8, 2025.
  5. ^ab"Legislation - HB0535".Maryland General Assembly. Archived fromthe original on April 24, 2023. RetrievedApril 24, 2023.
  6. ^"Maryland Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. May 21, 2024. RetrievedJune 17, 2024.
  7. ^"2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings".cookpolitical.com.Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  8. ^"Presidential Ratings".insideelections.com.Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  9. ^"2024 Electoral College ratings".centerforpolitics.org.University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  10. ^"2024 presidential predictions".elections2024.thehill.com/.The Hill. December 14, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  11. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".projects.cnalysis.com/.CNalysis. December 30, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  12. ^"Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2024.
  13. ^"Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model".The Economist. RetrievedJune 12, 2024.
  14. ^Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024)."2024 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. RetrievedJune 11, 2024.
  15. ^"2024 RCP Electoral College Map".RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. RetrievedJune 26, 2024.
  16. ^"Presidential Election Preview 2024".NBC News.
  17. ^abcdMorning Consult
  18. ^ActiVote
  19. ^Braun Research
  20. ^Emerson College
  21. ^ActiVote
  22. ^abBraun Research
  23. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  24. ^Emerson College
  25. ^Gonzales Research
  26. ^abFabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
  27. ^Chism Strategies
  28. ^YouGov
  29. ^University of Maryland, Baltimore County
  30. ^"Alsobrooks leads Hogan by 11".Public Policy Polling. June 24, 2024.
  31. ^abMumford, Camille (May 9, 2024)."Maryland 2024 Poll: Alsobrooks 42%, Trone 41%".Emerson Polling.
  32. ^"Public Policy Polling (D)"(PDF).
  33. ^abMumford, Camille (February 15, 2024)."Maryland 2024 Poll: Former Gov. Larry Hogan Starts Strong in Election for Open Senate Seat".Emerson Polling.
  34. ^abc"Gonzales Research"(PDF).
  35. ^abcd"Gonzales Research"(PDF).
  36. ^abSears, Bryan P. (June 14, 2023)."Poll: Biden's independent voter trouble and a hypothetical contest against Wes Moore".
  37. ^"Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results for President and Vice President of the United States".elections.maryland.gov. Maryland State Board of Elections. RetrievedOctober 24, 2024.
  38. ^"Data Files for the 2024 Presidential Election Results".elections.maryland.gov. Maryland State Board of Elections. RetrievedDecember 10, 2024.
  39. ^"Statewide Data Breakdown by State Congressional Districts".elections.maryland.gov.Archived from the original on December 9, 2024.

External links

[edit]

Media related toUnited States presidential election in Maryland, 2024 at Wikimedia Commons

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