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The2024 United States presidential election in Maine took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Maine voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionment due to the2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] This election coincided with five referendum questions including areferendum to change the state flag, as well as aU.S. Senateelection,U.S. Houseelections for the state's twocongressional districts and various other state, county and local elections. The state usesranked-choice voting.
Unlike all other states exceptNebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. The at-large votes were expected to be contested by both parties, but are favored to be carried by the Democratic presidential candidate, having last been won by a Republican in1988. However, the two congressional districts were expected to be split between the Democratic and Republican candidates withME-1 being a strongly blue district andME-2 being a moderately to strongly red district, something that had occurred in both2016 and2020.
Maine at large was potentially considered a secondary battleground during the 2024 election cycle. In 2016, Trump narrowly lost Maine at-large toHillary Clinton by less than 3% and a margin of 22,142 votes. However, in 2020, Biden won the state by just over 9% and 74,302 votes, though Trump held Maine's 2nd congressional district. However, most polls and analysts accurately predicted Maine to remain in the Democratic camp at large in the 2024 election.
Harris won Maine at-large by about 6.9%, worse than Biden but better than Clinton, and with the largest raw vote total of any presidential candidate in the state's history. Maine was the only state where Harris received the most raw votes of any candidate in the state's history up to 2024. Maine also had one of the smallest swings, swinging rightward by just 2%.[2]
As expected, Harris won Maine's 1st congressional district while Trump won Maine's 2nd congressional district. Ranked-choice tabulation was ultimately not used as Harris won a majority of the vote statewide and in the 1st district, while Trump won a majority of the vote in the 2nd district. Despite losing the state, Trump received the highest percentage of the total vote for a Republican sinceGeorge H. W. Bush carried the state in1988.
The Maine Democratic primary was held onSuper Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 60,018 | 82.8% | 24 | ||
| Dean Phillips | 4,623 | 6.4% | |||
| Other candidates | 480 | 0.7% | |||
| Blank ballots | 7,359 | 10.2% | |||
| Total: | 72,480 | 100% | 24 | 8 | 32 |
The Maine Republican caucuses was held onSuper Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 79,034 | 71.92% | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| Nikki Haley | 27,912 | 25.40% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 1,191 | 1.08% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 440 | 0.40% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 299 | 0.27% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blank ballots | 1,022 | 0.93% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 109,898 | 100.00% | 20 | 0 | 20 |
Following a challenge to Trump's nomination petition for the Republican primary, theMaine Secretary of StateShenna Bellows on December 28, 2023 rejectedDonald Trump's petition for the ballot on grounds of insurrection, similarly to what the Colorado Supreme Court ordered the secretary of state to do inAnderson v. Griswold for theColorado primary.[5] On January 2, 2024, Trumpappealed the ruling to theMaine Superior Court, arguing that Bellows is biased and that she has "no legal authority to consider the federal constitutional issues presented by the challengers".[6] On January 17, aMaine Superior Court judge ordered Bellows to wait for the Colorado case to be adjudicated by the Supreme Court before upholding or modifying her decision. Bellows appealed this decision to theMaine Supreme Judicial Court,[7] and the appeal was dismissed on January 24.[8] On March 4, 2024, the US Supreme Court ruled inTrump v. Anderson[9] that the Colorado courts could not order for Trump to be removed from the Republican primary ballot as it is a matter for Congress to legislate on, which it had not.[10] The secretary of state reversed her decision on the same day as the US Supreme Court's ruling.[11]
| Source | Ranking (1st) | Ranking (2nd) | Ranking (statewide) | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Economist[12] | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | September 5, 2024 |
| Cook Political Report[13] | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | August 27, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[14] | Safe D | Likely R | Safe D | November 4, 2024 |
| CNalysis[15] | Safe D | Very Likely R | Solid D | November 4, 2024 |
| 538[16] | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | July 15, 2024 |
| CNN[17] | Safe D | Lean R | Safe D | January 14, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | June 29, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[19] | Safe D | Lean R | Likely D | April 26, 2023 |
| NBC News[20] | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | October 6, 2024 |
| YouGov[21] | Safe D | Tossup | Safe D | November 1, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[22] | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | November 1, 2024 |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[23] | August 15–19, 2024 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 58% | 41% | 1% |
| University of New Hampshire[24] | July 23–25, 2024 | 1,445 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 54% | 45% | 1% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[25] | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 1,485 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 52% | 41% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4%[b] |
| SurveyUSA[26][A] | October 24–29, 2024 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Pan Atlantic Research[27] | September 5–15, 2024 | 812 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 41% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[23] | August 15–19, 2024 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 55% | 38% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| University of New Hampshire[24] | July 23–25, 2024 | 1,445 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 40% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5%[b] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[28][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 350 (LV) | – | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Pan Atlantic Research[29] | February 6–14, 2024 | 791 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 38% | 30%[c] |
| Digital Research[30] | October 3 – November 2, 2023 | 614 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 36% | 35% | 29%[d] |
| Emerson College[31] | September 19–20, 2022 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | RCV count | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital Research[32] | April 8–30, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 40% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 6% | 2% |
| 2 | 41% | 41% | 11% | 1% | 6% | Elim | ||||
| 3 | 41% | 42% | 11% | Elim | 6% | Elim | ||||
| 4 | 42% | 43% | 15% | Elim | Elim | Elim | ||||
| 5 | 51% | 49% | Elim | Elim | Elim | Elim |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[28][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 350 (LV) | – | 35% | 53% | 12% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[28][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 350 (LV) | – | 43% | 37% | 20% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research[27] | September 5–15, 2024 | 414 (LV) | – | 58% | 32% | 10% |
| University of New Hampshire[23] | August 15–19, 2024 | 476 (LV) | – | 64% | 36% | – |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[25] | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 60% | 36% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2%[b] |
| SurveyUSA[26][A] | October 24–29, 2024 | 482 (LV) | – | 58% | 37% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[23] | August 15–19, 2024 | 476 (LV) | – | 62% | 33% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2%[b] |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axis Research[33][C] | October 17–20, 2024 | 411 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50% | 41% | 8%[f] |
| Pan Atlantic Research[27] | September 5–15, 2024 | 398 (LV) | – | 49% | 42% | 9% |
| University of New Hampshire[23] | August 15–19, 2024 | 432 (LV) | – | 47% | 52% | 1% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[25] | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 683 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 44% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5%[b] |
| SurveyUSA[26][A] | October 24–29, 2024 | 484 (LV) | – | 49% | 44% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[23] | August 15–19, 2024 | 432 (LV) | – | 44% | 49% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
Swing by county
County flipsDemocratic Hold | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic
|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 435,652 | 52.40% | −0.69% | ||
| Republican | 377,977 | 45.46% | +1.44% | ||
| Green | 8,967 | 1.08% | +0.08% | ||
| Libertarian | 5,286 | 0.64% | −1.09% | ||
| Justice For All | 2,912 | 0.35% | N/A | ||
| Write-in | 581 | 0.07% | +0.06% | ||
| Total votes | 831,375 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| County | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Androscoggin | 27,019 | 45.91% | 30,605 | 52.01% | 1,223 | 2.08% | -3,586 | -6.10% | 58,847 |
| Aroostook | 12,900 | 36.18% | 22,246 | 62.40% | 507 | 1.42% | -9,346 | -26.22% | 35,653 |
| Cumberland | 127,971 | 66.42% | 59,964 | 31.12% | 4,721 | 2.46% | 68,007 | 35.30% | 192,656 |
| Franklin | 7,990 | 44.80% | 9,459 | 53.03% | 387 | 2.17% | -1,469 | -8.23% | 17,836 |
| Hancock | 19,817 | 54.66% | 15,551 | 42.90% | 885 | 2.44% | 4,266 | 11.76% | 36,253 |
| Kennebec | 34,585 | 47.45% | 36,589 | 50.20% | 1,712 | 2.35% | -2,004 | -2.75% | 72,886 |
| Knox | 15,076 | 58.22% | 10,262 | 39.63% | 555 | 2.15% | 4,814 | 18.59% | 25,893 |
| Lincoln | 13,110 | 54.62% | 10,409 | 43.37% | 484 | 2.01% | 2,701 | 11.25% | 24,003 |
| Oxford | 14,765 | 42.69% | 19,228 | 55.59% | 597 | 1.72% | -4,463 | -12.90% | 34,590 |
| Penobscot | 37,945 | 43.58% | 47,438 | 54.48% | 1,690 | 1.94% | -9,493 | -10.90% | 87,073 |
| Piscataquis | 3,510 | 34.39% | 6,487 | 63.57% | 208 | 2.04% | -2,977 | -29.18% | 10,205 |
| Sagadahoc | 13,982 | 57.17% | 9,917 | 40.55% | 557 | 2.28% | 4,065 | 16.62% | 24,456 |
| Somerset | 10,134 | 35.63% | 17,826 | 62.68% | 481 | 1.69% | -7,692 | -27.05% | 28,441 |
| Waldo | 12,661 | 50.38% | 11,815 | 47.02% | 654 | 2.60% | 846 | 3.36% | 25,130 |
| Washington | 6,763 | 37.48% | 11,001 | 60.96% | 282 | 1.56% | -4,238 | -23.48% | 18,046 |
| York | 71,813 | 54.22% | 58,054 | 43.83% | 2,585 | 1.95% | 13,759 | 10.39% | 132,452 |
| Totals[35][h] | 430,342 | 52.17% | 376,991 | 45.71% | 17,473 | 2.12% | 53,351 | 6.47% | 824,806 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Harris won the first of Maine's two congressional districts. Trump won the other district, which elected a Democrat to the House of Representatives in the same election cycle.[36]
| District | Harris | Trump | Other | Representative | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| 1st | 258,863 | 59.69% | 165,214 | 38.09% | 9,632 | 2.22% | Chellie Pingree |
| 2nd | 176,789 | 44.46% | 212,763 | 53.50% | 8,114 | 2.04% | Jared Golden |
A sparsely populated state inNew England, Maine is one of the mostrural states in the nation and is considered to be moderatelyblue.
All but two counties swung Republican compared to 2020, and Trump flippedKennebec County, which he had won in 2016 but narrowly lost in 2020. However, the state trended (relative to the national popular vote) 3.9 points towards the Democrats, remaining non-competitively blue even as neighboring New Hampshire was decided rather narrowly. While every state in the union shifted toward Donald Trump in the 2024 election, Maine had one of the smallest such shifts.[37][38] Trump was the first Republican since George H.W. Bush to win Kennebec with a majority, winning it in 2016 on a plurality. It was also the first time since 2012 that the county was won by a majority, with Obama carrying it with 55%.
State and district results of the2024 United States presidential election | ||
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