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2024 United States presidential election in Kansas

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Kansas

← 2020
November 5, 2024
2028 →
Turnout67.84%[1]
 
NomineeDonald TrumpKamala Harris
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaCalifornia
Running mateJD VanceTim Walz
Electoral vote60
Popular vote758,802544,853
Percentage57.16%41.04%

County results
Congressional district results
Municipality results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Votes

  
  


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Kansas
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Republican
2008
2012
2016
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
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Mayoral elections

The2024 United States presidential election in Kansas took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Kansas voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of Kansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionment due to the2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]

A sparsely populatedGreat Plains state that has not voted Democrat for president sinceLyndon B. Johnson in1964, Kansas was considered by nearly all major news organizations to be safely Republican at the presidential level.

Kansas was won by the Republican nominee, former PresidentDonald Trump, with a margin of 16.1%, a slight improvement from 4 years prior, although one of Trump’s smallest improvements throughout the nation by about 1.4%.[3]

Primary elections

[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Kansas Republican presidential primary


The Kansas Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.

Kansas Republican primary, March 19, 2024[4][5]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump72,11575.52%3939
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)15,33916.06%
None of the Names Shown4,9825.22%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)2,5432.66%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)5080.53%
Total:95,487100.00%3939

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Kansas Democratic presidential primary

The Kansas Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries inArizona,Illinois, andOhio.

Kansas Democratic primary, March 19, 2024[6]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)35,90683.7%3333
None of the Names Shown4,43310.3%
Marianne Williamson1,4943.5%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)5661.3%
Jason Palmer5161.2%
Total:42,915100.0%33639


Green primary

[edit]

The Kansas Green primary was held from January 22, 2024, to February 5, 2024. It was a helddigitally under aranked-choice voting system.Jill Stein won with 100% of the vote, being ranked first by all 7 voting party members. Stein automatically received Kansas's 4 delegates to the2024 Green National Convention.[7]

Kansas Green primary, January 22, 2024 – February 5, 2024
CandidateVotesPercentageDelegate count
Jill Stein7100%4
Total:7100%4
Source:[7]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[8]Solid RDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections[9]Solid RApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10]Safe RJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11]Safe RMay 31, 2024
CNalysis[12]Very Likely RNovember 4, 2024
CNN[13]Solid RJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist[14]Safe RJune 12, 2024
538[15]Solid ROctober 3, 2024
NBC News[16]Safe ROctober 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Fort Hays State University[17]September 26 – October 16, 2024656 (A)46%37%17%[b]
608 (A)50%39%11%[c]
517 (RV)48%43%9%[d]
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[18][A]April 13–21, 2024385 (LV)48%42%10%
Emerson College[19]October 1–4, 2023487 (RV)± 4.4%47%31%22%
Emerson College[20]October 27–29, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%37%13%
Emerson College[21]September 15–18, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%52%36%12%
Echelon Insights[22][B]August 31 – September 7, 2022392 (LV)± 7.5%52%41%7%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[18][A]April 13–21, 2024385 (LV)44%42%14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[18][A]April 13–21, 2024385 (LV)53%36%11%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Echelon Insights[22][B]August 31 – September 7, 2022392 (LV)± 7.5%50%39%11%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Kansas[23]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican758,80257.16%+1.02%
Democratic544,85341.04%−0.47%
Independent16,3221.23%N/A
Libertarian7,6140.57%−1.66%
Total votes1,327,591100.00%N/A

By county

[edit]
County[24]Donald Trump
Republican
Kamala Harris
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Allen4,02971.69%1,44525.71%1462.60%2,58445.98%5,620
Anderson2,99878.85%73219.25%721.90%2,26659.60%3,802
Atchison4,91167.42%2,20130.22%1722.36%2,71037.20%7,284
Barber1,85485.44%28813.27%281.29%1,56671.17%2,170
Barton8,20577.28%2,20720.79%2051.93%5,99856.49%10,617
Bourbon5,00375.90%1,44421.91%1452.19%3,55953.99%6,592
Brown3,10672.67%1,06524.92%1032.41%2,04147.75%4,274
Butler22,42669.57%9,15028.38%6602.05%13,27641.19%32,236
Chase1,09074.56%34823.80%241.64%74250.76%1,462
Chautauqua1,29985.01%21113.81%181.18%1,08871.20%1,528
Cherokee6,58475.33%1,97022.54%1862.13%4,61452.79%8,740
Cheyenne1,18583.33%20614.49%312.18%97968.84%1,422
Clark86785.50%12912.72%181.78%73872.78%1,014
Clay3,15076.59%86721.08%962.33%2,28355.51%4,113
Cloud3,21879.24%76718.89%761.87%2,45160.35%4,061
Coffey3,37176.68%93421.25%912.07%2,43755.43%4,396
Comanche72783.18%13014.87%171.95%59768.31%874
Cowley9,36069.06%3,91928.91%2752.03%5,44140.15%13,554
Crawford10,08461.42%5,95636.28%3772.30%4,12825.14%16,417
Decatur1,21783.70%21514.79%221.51%1,00268.91%1,454
Dickinson7,01476.71%1,98921.75%1411.54%5,02554.96%9,144
Doniphan2,89980.71%62617.43%671.86%2,27363.28%3,592
Douglas17,52329.85%39,58267.42%1,6022.73%-22,059-37.57%58,707
Edwards1,04282.11%21316.78%141.11%82965.33%1,269
Elk1,12383.93%19114.28%241.79%93269.65%1,338
Ellis9,74371.81%3,51125.88%3142.31%6,23245.93%13,568
Ellsworth2,07875.34%63623.06%441.60%1,44252.28%2,758
Finney7,16666.25%3,42531.67%2252.08%3,74134.58%10,816
Ford5,61668.10%2,46129.84%1702.06%3,15538.26%8,247
Franklin8,77368.76%3,67628.81%3102.43%5,09739.95%12,759
Geary5,28857.56%3,67439.99%2252.45%1,61417.57%9,187
Gove1,22787.77%15010.73%211.50%1,07777.04%1,398
Graham1,05581.97%21016.32%221.71%84565.65%1,287
Grant1,79380.77%39517.79%321.44%1,39862.98%2,220
Gray1,83783.77%32414.77%321.46%1,51369.00%2,193
Greeley51086.00%7512.65%81.35%43573.35%593
Greenwood2,29979.50%54118.71%521.79%1,75860.79%2,892
Hamilton67182.33%13116.07%131.60%54066.26%815
Harper2,07280.78%43717.04%562.18%1,63563.74%2,565
Harvey9,59159.32%6,20238.36%3762.32%3,38920.96%16,169
Haskell1,04581.70%22117.28%131.02%82464.42%1,279
Hodgeman81784.58%13614.08%131.34%68170.50%966
Jackson4,55770.12%1,79927.68%1432.20%2,75842.44%6,499
Jefferson6,69467.11%3,03030.38%2512.51%3,66436.73%9,975
Jewell1,37086.87%17611.16%311.97%1,19475.71%1,577
Johnson154,24744.47%183,45152.89%9,1622.64%-29,204-8.42%346,860
Kearny1,08283.17%19214.76%272.07%89068.41%1,301
Kingman3,11979.02%75319.08%751.90%2,36659.94%3,947
Kiowa94184.85%15113.62%171.53%79071.23%1,109
Labette5,41068.30%2,38530.11%1261.59%3,02538.19%7,921
Lane70983.91%11113.14%252.95%59870.77%845
Leavenworth22,05560.00%13,73237.36%9692.64%8,32322.64%36,756
Lincoln1,23381.82%25016.59%241.59%98365.23%1,507
Linn4,09381.39%85416.98%821.63%3,23964.41%5,029
Logan1,18684.71%18313.07%312.22%1,00371.64%1,400
Lyon7,46256.05%5,51541.42%3372.53%1,94714.63%13,314
Marion4,31273.35%1,42924.31%1382.34%2,88349.04%5,879
Marshall3,64473.35%1,20524.26%1192.39%2,43949.09%4,968
McPherson9,81669.29%4,02128.38%3302.33%5,79540.91%14,167
Meade1,42784.19%24714.57%211.24%1,18069.62%1,695
Miami12,85468.55%5,47229.18%4242.27%7,38239.37%18,750
Mitchell2,60882.22%52816.65%361.13%2,08065.57%3,172
Montgomery9,28774.65%2,93423.58%2201.77%6,35351.07%12,441
Morris2,02172.39%72125.82%501.79%1,30046.57%2,792
Morton90985.75%13112.36%201.89%77873.39%1,060
Nemaha4,65582.58%88815.75%941.67%3,76766.83%5,637
Neosho4,96172.86%1,69624.91%1522.23%3,26547.95%6,809
Ness1,20588.41%1299.46%292.13%1,07678.95%1,363
Norton1,88282.73%34615.21%472.06%1,53667.52%2,275
Osage5,73672.44%1,94624.58%2362.98%3,79047.86%7,918
Osborne1,47783.21%26114.70%372.09%1,21668.51%1,775
Ottawa2,47582.42%47615.85%521.73%1,99966.57%3,003
Pawnee2,00374.88%62523.36%471.76%1,37851.52%2,675
Phillips2,35685.67%33112.04%632.29%2,02573.63%2,750
Pottawatomie9,81172.83%3,39425.19%2671.98%6,41747.64%13,472
Pratt3,05474.82%95423.37%741.81%2,10051.45%4,082
Rawlins1,19484.68%17612.48%402.84%1,01872.20%1,410
Reno17,84765.94%8,55431.60%6662.46%9,29334.34%27,067
Republic2,00181.51%39616.13%582.36%1,60565.38%2,455
Rice3,07377.39%82520.78%731.83%2,24856.61%3,971
Riley11,63047.44%12,06349.21%8203.35%-433-1.77%24,513
Rooks2,15384.86%34913.76%351.38%1,80471.10%2,537
Rush1,31581.88%26416.44%271.68%1,05165.44%1,606
Russell2,63279.40%60818.34%752.26%2,02461.06%3,315
Saline15,06964.61%7,73433.16%5212.23%7,33531.45%23,324
Scott1,84386.32%24811.62%442.06%1,59574.70%2,135
Sedgwick120,11855.73%90,50641.99%4,9262.28%29,61213.74%215,550
Seward3,13368.51%1,35429.61%861.88%1,77938.90%4,573
Shawnee39,90148.45%40,30848.95%2,1412.60%-407-0.50%82,350
Sheridan1,22989.51%1269.18%181.31%1,10380.33%1,373
Sherman2,16183.15%37914.58%592.27%1,78268.57%2,599
Smith1,67583.25%30014.91%371.84%1,37568.34%2,012
Stafford1,54881.00%32617.06%371.94%1,22263.94%1,911
Stanton53780.87%11517.32%121.81%42263.55%664
Stevens1,59586.92%21011.44%301.64%1,38575.48%1,835
Sumner7,81073.81%2,52723.88%2442.31%5,28349.93%10,581
Thomas3,00781.85%59716.25%701.90%2,41065.60%3,674
Trego1,34384.41%21613.58%322.01%1,12770.83%1,591
Wabaunsee2,81672.95%94424.46%1002.59%1,87248.49%3,860
Wallace68691.71%526.95%101.34%63484.76%748
Washington2,26383.81%39614.67%411.52%1,86769.14%2,700
Wichita74086.05%10712.44%131.51%63373.61%860
Wilson2,89480.19%64717.93%681.88%2,24762.26%3,609
Woodson1,20580.01%28218.73%191.26%92361.28%1,506
Wyandotte18,86737.07%30,93860.78%1,0962.15%-12,071-23.71%50,901
Totals758,80256.83%544,85340.80%31,6712.37%213,94916.02%1,335,326
Swing by county:
  Democratic — +2.5–5%
  Democratic — +0–2.5%
  Republican — +0–2.5%
  Republican — +2.5–5%
  Republican — +5–7.5%
  Republican — +7.5–10%
  Republican — +10–12.5%

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won three of four congressional districts.[25]

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
1st64.72%33.45%Tracey Mann
2nd58.89%39.21%Jake LaTurner (118th Congress)
Derek Schmidt (119th Congress)
3rd47.06%51.16%Sharice Davids
4th60.79%37.50%Ron Estes

Analysis

[edit]

In recent years, Democrats have seen some success in the state, such as defeating the2022 Kansas abortion referendum and holding thegovernorship since2019. This leftward shift has been attributed to the growth of theKansas City metropolitan area, more specificallyJohnson County, the state's most populous, which supportedJoe Biden four years prior, the first win for a Democrat in this county since1916.[26] While Democrats had hoped that their margin of defeat would narrow further after favorable polls and Biden's favorable results compared to 2016, Kansas instead shifted to the right, with Trump improving on his margin[27] and Republicans in the state legislature expanding their supermajorities.[28]

Trump improved on his 14.6% margin from 2020, albeit by only 1.5% compared to the national average of about 6%, meaning Kansas voted to the right of the nation by a smaller margin in 2024. As such, Trump is the first Republican to win the White House without Johnson County sinceWilliam McKinley in1896, and the first since Kansas achieved statehood to win withoutRiley County, home toFort Riley andKansas State University, andShawnee County, home to the state capital ofTopeka (though he was less than 500 votes away from winning each of the latter two counties).Johnson County was the only county that supported Biden in 2020 in which Kamala Harris improved the Democratic margin.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdeKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^"I do not plan on voting/cannot vote" & "Neither of the top two candidates" with 7% each
  3. ^"Neither of the top two candidates" with 7%
  4. ^"Neither of the top two candidates" with 6%

Partisan clients

  1. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign
  2. ^abPoll sponsored by NetChoice

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Kansas Secretary of State | Elections | Election Statistics Data".sos.ks.gov. RetrievedMarch 9, 2025.
  2. ^Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021)."Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats".NPR.Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. RetrievedAugust 20, 2021.
  3. ^Kondik, Kyle (December 19, 2024)."How the States Vote Relative to the Nation".Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
  4. ^"Kansas Presidential Primary". The AP. RetrievedMarch 18, 2024.
  5. ^"Kansas Republican Presidential Nominating Process"(PDF).sos.ks.gov. March 19, 2024. RetrievedApril 24, 2024.
  6. ^"Kansas Presidential Primary".The AP. May 2, 2024. RetrievedMay 16, 2024.
  7. ^ab@KSGreenParty (February 8, 2024)."The Kansas Green Party has concluded its presidential primary. Seven Kansas Green Party members cast their ranked-choice ballot and all ranked @DrJillStein first. Jill Stein will receive all four of our delegates at the Presidential Nominating Convention. #GreenParty" (Tweet) – viaTwitter.
  8. ^"2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings".cookpolitical.com.Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  9. ^"Presidential Ratings".insideelections.com.Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  10. ^"2024 Electoral College ratings".centerforpolitics.org.University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  11. ^"2024 presidential predictions".elections2024.thehill.com/.The Hill. December 14, 2023. RetrievedMay 31, 2024.
  12. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".projects.cnalysis.com/.CNalysis. December 30, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  13. ^"Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2024.
  14. ^"Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model".The Economist. RetrievedJune 12, 2024.
  15. ^Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024)."2024 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. RetrievedOctober 4, 2024.
  16. ^"Presidential Election Preview 2024".NBC News. December 17, 2024.
  17. ^"Kansas Speaks - Fall 2024 Statewide Public Opinion Survey"(PDF).Fort Hays State University. October 28, 2024.
  18. ^abc"Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump".Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  19. ^Mumford, Camille (October 12, 2023)."Kansas 2024 Poll: Trump Holds 16-point Lead Over Biden in Potential 2024 Rematch".Emerson Polling.
  20. ^Mumford, Camille (November 2, 2022)."Kansas 2022: Governor Laura Kelly Holds Three-Point Lead Over AG Derek Schmidt in Gubernatorial Election; Senator Moran leads by 21 points for Re-election".Emerson Polling.
  21. ^Mumford, Camille (September 21, 2022)."Kansas 2022: Democratic Governor Laura Kelly in Tight Race with A.G. Derek Schmidt in Gubernatorial Election".Emerson Polling.
  22. ^abChavez, Krista (September 13, 2022)."New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech".NetChoice.
  23. ^"Official General Election Results"(PDF).Kansas Secretary of State. RetrievedDecember 30, 2024.
  24. ^"Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  25. ^"The Downballot".
  26. ^"How Johnson County, Kansas, became a crucial battleground in the 2024 election". The Kansas City Star. August 4, 2024. RetrievedOctober 31, 2024.
  27. ^Smith, Sherman (November 6, 2024)."Kansas backs Trump for president after surprising survey attracts interest in state's votes • Kansas Reflector".Kansas Reflector. RetrievedJanuary 21, 2025.
  28. ^McCoy, Tim Carpenter, Sherman Smith, Allison Kite, Max (November 6, 2024)."Election night results show Republicans preserving supermajorities in Kansas House, Senate • Kansas Reflector".Kansas Reflector. RetrievedJanuary 21, 2025.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
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