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2024 United States presidential election in Iowa

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Iowa
← 2020
November 5, 2024
2028 →
Turnout74.18% (Decrease1.59pp)
 
NomineeDonald TrumpKamala Harris
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaCalifornia
Running mateJD VanceTim Walz
Electoral vote60
Popular vote927,019707,278
Percentage55.73%42.52%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%

President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Iowa
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The2024 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionment due to the2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

For most of the race, Iowa was expected to be a safe red state.[2] A poll performed bySelzer and Co. and published byThe Des Moines Register on November 2 claimed Harris to be up by 3%, leading some to predict a far closer race than initially expected. Nonetheless, Democrats did not seriously contest the state.[3][4][5]

In the election, Donald Trump won the state in a landslide, winning the state by 13.2 percentage points, the widest margin for any candidate since1972. This was the first time a Republican won the state by double digits since1980.[6][7] Selzer retired from polling following the election.[8][9]

Caucuses

[edit]

Democratic caucuses

[edit]
Main article:2024 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses

During the Iowa Democratic caucuses, in-person caucusing focusing only on party business was held on January 15. Voting on candidates was done exclusively viamail-in ballots from January 12 untilSuper Tuesday, March 5, 2024. This was the result of a compromise between theIowa Democratic Party and theDemocratic National Committee (DNC). Iowa traditionally holds its race first during thepresidential primary and caucuses season, but the DNC originally wanted South Carolina to instead hold its race first on February 3.[10]

Iowa Democratic caucus, January 12 – March 5, 2024[11]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)12,33790.37%4040
Uncommitted6144.50%00
Dean Phillips3942.89%00
Marianne Williamson[a]3072.25%00
Total:13,652100.00%40646

Republican caucuses

[edit]
Main article:2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

The Iowa Republican caucuses were held on January 15, 2024, the first-in-the-nation nomination contest of the2024 Republican primaries. Former presidentDonald Trump won the primary with the largest margin of victory for a non-incumbent in the Iowa caucuses. Trump's overwhelming victory in the state established his position early as the frontrunner.

Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Haley
  •   30–40%
Iowa Republican precinct caucuses, January 15, 2024[12]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump56,24351.00%20020
Ron DeSantis23,49121.30%909
Nikki Haley21,02719.07%808
Vivek Ramaswamy8,4307.64%303
Ryan Binkley7680.70%000
Asa Hutchinson1880.17%000
Other900.08%000
Chris Christie (withdrawn)350.03%000
Total:110,272100.00%40040

Libertarian caucuses

[edit]
Main article:2024 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses

The Iowa Libertarian caucuses were held on January 15, 2024, its first as a recognized party in the state.[13] 2022 U.S. Senate candidateChase Oliver fromGeorgia won the non-binding preferential vote with 42.7% of the vote.[14]

2024 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses[15]
CandidateVotesPercentage
Chase Oliver3842.70
Michael Rectenwald1516.85
Mike ter Maat1213.48
Joshua Smith1213.48
Vivek Ramaswamy44.49
Mario Perales22.25
Robert Sansone22.25
Jacob Hornberger11.12
Lars Mapstead11.12
Art Olivier11.12
None of the above11.12
Total89100.00

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[16]Likely RNovember 4, 2024
Inside Elections[17]Tilt RNovember 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[18]Likely RNovember 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[19]Likely RNovember 3, 2024
CNalysis[20]Tilt RNovember 4, 2024
CNN[21]Solid RNovember 3, 2024
The Economist[22]Safe RNovember 3, 2024
538[23]Likely RNovember 3, 2024
NBC News[24]Solid RNovember 3, 2024
Split Ticket[25]Lean RNovember 2, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
[b]		Margin
270ToWinOctober 2 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202445.3%50.0%4.7%Trump +4.7%
Silver Bulletinthrough November 3, 2024November 4, 202445.4%49.8%4.8%Trump +4.4%
Average45.4%49.9%4.7%Trump +4.5%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
InsiderAdvantage (R)[26]November 2–3, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%52%46%2%[d]
SoCal Strategies (R)[27][A]November 2–3, 2024501 (RV)± 4.4%50%43%7%
435 (LV)52%44%4%
Emerson College[28][B]November 1–2, 2024800 (LV)± 3.4%53%43%4%[e]
54%[f]45%1%[e]
Cygnal (R)[29][C]September 27–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%51%45%4%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
Selzer & Co.[30][D]October 28–31, 2024808 (LV)± 3.4%44%47%3%0%6%[g]
Selzer & Co.[31][D]September 8–11, 2024656 (LV)± 3.8%47%43%6%1%3%[e]
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[32][C]July 8–9, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%51%39%10%
John Zogby Strategies[33][E]April 13–21, 2024405 (LV)–47%45%8%
Selzer & Co.[34][D]February 25–28, 2024640 (LV)± 3.9%48%33%19%[h]
Cygnal (R)[35][C]February 13–14, 2024600 (LV)± 3.9%49%40%11%
John Zogby Strategies[36]January 2–4, 2024500 (LV)–51%39%10%
Emerson College[37]December 15–17, 20231,094 (RV)± 2.9%48%40%12%
Emerson College[38]October 1–4, 2023464 (RV)± 4.5%44%34%22%
Cygnal (R)[39][C]September 28–29, 2023506 (LV)± 4.3%47%38%15%
Emerson College[40]September 7–9, 2023896 (RV)± 3.2%50%39%11%
HarrisX[41][F]August 17–21, 20231,952 (LV)–47%41%12%
Big Data Poll (R)[42]July 9–12, 20231,057 (LV)± 3.0%42%36%22%
Emerson College[43]May 19–22, 20231,064 (RV)± 2.9%49%38%13%
Cygnal (R)[44][C]April 3–4, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%46%40%14%
Emerson College[45]October 2–4, 2022959 (LV)± 3.1%47%39%14%
Cygnal (R)[46][C]October 2–4, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%51%41%8%
Cygnal (R)[47][C]July 13–14, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%51%40%9%
Cygnal (R)[48][C]February 20–22, 2022610 (LV)± 3.9%53%38%9%
Selzer & Co.[49][D]November 7–10, 2021658 (LV)± 3.8%51%40%9%
Cygnal (R)[50][C]October 18–19, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%54%41%5%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
Selzer & Co.[51][D]June 9–14, 2024632 (LV)± 3.9%50%32%9%2%7%[i]

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Cornel
West
Green		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[40]September 7–9, 2023896 (RV)± 3.2%48%35%5%12%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[39][C]September 28–29, 2023506 (LV)± 4.3%48%34%18%

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[33][E]April 13–21, 2024405 (LV)–39%45%16%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[33][E]April 13–21, 2024405 (LV)–50%39%11%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Big Data Poll (R)[42]July 9–12, 20231,057 (LV)± 3.0%38%36%26%
Emerson College[43]May 19–22, 20231,064 (RV)± 2.9%45%38%17%
Cygnal (R)[44][C]April 3–4, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%48%38%14%

Generic Republican vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[39][C]September 28–29, 2023506 (LV)± 4.3%49%33%18%

Results

[edit]
Township results
Trump
  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%
Harris
  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
2024 United States presidential election in Iowa[52]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican927,01955.73%+2.64%
Democratic707,27842.52%−2.37%
We the People13,1220.79%N/A
Libertarian7,2180.43%−0.73%
Socialism and Liberation1,4270.09%N/A
Independent
4240.03%N/A
Socialist
  • Bill Stodden
  • Stephanie Cholensky
3610.02%N/A
Write-in6,6570.40%+0.02%
Total votes1,663,506100.00%N/A

By county

[edit]
CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Kamala Harris
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adair2,91671.47%1,08626.62%781.91%1,83044.85%4,080
Adams1,51771.05%57626.98%421.97%94144.07%2,135
Allamakee4,85766.37%2,35032.11%1111.52%2,50734.26%7,318
Appanoose4,70472.55%1,68626.00%941.45%3,01846.55%6,484
Audubon2,21468.14%97029.86%652.00%1,24438.28%3,249
Benton9,54965.81%4,73932.66%2211.52%4,81033.15%14,509
Black Hawk30,57248.60%31,29949.76%1,0351.65%-727-1.16%62,906
Boone9,19959.72%5,89538.27%3092.01%3,30421.45%15,403
Bremer8,79960.24%5,57138.14%2371.62%3,22822.10%14,607
Buchanan6,79063.16%3,76635.03%1941.80%3,02428.13%10,750
Buena Vista4,96265.84%2,46232.67%1131.50%2,50033.17%7,537
Butler5,78471.89%2,14426.65%1181.47%3,64045.24%8,046
Calhoun3,70872.75%1,32826.05%611.20%2,38046.70%5,097
Carroll7,81470.14%3,15328.30%1731.55%4,66141.84%11,140
Cass5,00769.38%2,07728.78%1331.84%2,93040.60%7,217
Cedar6,39060.03%4,07538.28%1791.68%2,31521.75%10,644
Cerro Gordo12,62754.85%9,95543.25%4381.90%2,67211.60%23,020
Cherokee4,39872.04%1,61126.39%961.57%2,78745.65%6,105
Chickasaw4,23467.86%1,91930.76%861.38%2,31537.10%6,239
Clarke3,14070.10%1,26528.24%741.65%1,87541.86%4,479
Clay6,04770.80%2,36727.71%1271.49%3,68043.09%8,541
Clayton6,25566.54%3,01732.10%1281.36%3,23834.44%9,400
Clinton13,96458.48%9,47239.67%4421.85%4,49218.81%23,878
Crawford4,65171.06%1,81227.69%821.25%2,83943.37%6,545
Dallas32,37451.42%29,40246.70%1,1851.88%2,9724.72%62,961
Davis3,02776.56%87822.21%491.24%2,14954.35%3,954
Decatur2,71172.51%95725.60%711.90%1,75446.91%3,739
Delaware6,98468.89%2,97829.37%1761.74%4,00639.52%10,138
Des Moines10,79456.65%7,93541.64%3251.71%2,85915.01%19,054
Dickinson7,77569.21%3,29729.35%1621.44%4,47839.86%11,234
Dubuque28,22453.48%23,70544.92%8411.59%4,5198.56%52,770
Emmet3,42271.32%1,31527.41%611.27%2,10743.91%4,798
Fayette6,32564.23%3,33433.85%1891.92%2,99130.38%9,848
Floyd4,74462.01%2,78236.37%1241.62%1,96225.64%7,650
Franklin3,43170.02%1,39328.43%761.55%2,03841.59%4,900
Fremont2,71171.44%1,02326.96%611.61%1,68844.48%3,795
Greene3,21165.79%1,60332.84%671.37%1,60832.95%4,881
Grundy4,99869.94%2,01928.25%1291.81%2,97941.69%7,146
Guthrie4,44667.95%1,97430.17%1231.88%2,47237.78%6,543
Hamilton5,00465.87%2,48232.67%1111.46%2,52233.20%7,597
Hancock4,33673.01%1,52325.64%801.35%2,81347.37%5,939
Hardin5,79068.44%2,55330.18%1171.38%3,23738.26%8,460
Harrison5,56669.93%2,24528.21%1481.86%3,32141.72%7,959
Henry6,43967.07%2,99531.20%1661.73%3,44435.87%9,600
Howard3,15765.09%1,61933.38%741.53%1,53831.71%4,850
Humboldt3,77074.17%1,23624.32%771.51%2,53449.85%5,083
Ida2,77175.81%82622.60%581.59%1,94553.21%3,655
Iowa6,06862.95%3,40035.27%1711.77%2,66827.68%9,639
Jackson7,07465.49%3,56733.02%1601.48%3,50732.47%10,801
Jasper12,70162.88%7,14135.35%3561.76%5,56027.53%20,198
Jefferson4,35352.16%3,78845.39%2052.46%5656.77%8,346
Johnson26,08730.11%58,84667.92%1,7111.97%-32,759-37.81%86,644
Jones6,82062.11%3,94235.90%2181.99%2,87826.21%10,980
Keokuk3,86975.13%1,21923.67%621.20%2,65051.46%5,150
Kossuth5,98371.25%2,28427.20%1301.55%3,69944.05%8,397
Lee10,15262.67%5,65934.94%3872.39%4,49327.73%16,198
Linn54,23744.11%66,35853.97%2,3641.92%-12,121-9.86%122,959
Louisa3,58469.70%1,48028.78%781.52%2,10440.92%5,142
Lucas3,40073.18%1,16925.16%771.66%2,23148.02%4,646
Lyon5,89984.25%1,02314.61%801.14%4,87669.64%7,002
Madison6,86468.45%3,00830.00%1561.56%3,85638.45%10,028
Mahaska8,20774.98%2,57723.54%1621.48%5,63051.44%10,946
Marion13,28967.92%5,92830.30%3491.78%7,36137.62%19,566
Marshall9,81556.83%7,13441.31%3211.86%2,68115.52%17,270
Mills5,67168.71%2,45629.76%1261.53%3,21538.95%8,253
Mitchell3,73664.74%1,94333.67%921.59%1,79331.07%5,771
Monona3,33171.84%1,23626.66%701.51%2,09545.18%4,637
Monroe3,10474.65%1,00224.10%521.25%2,10250.55%4,158
Montgomery3,48668.70%1,50829.72%801.58%1,97838.98%5,074
Muscatine11,15256.46%8,21241.58%3881.96%2,94014.88%19,752
O'Brien5,99879.71%1,42818.98%991.32%4,57060.73%7,525
Osceola2,62381.23%55517.19%511.58%2,06864.04%3,229
Page5,15370.38%2,06028.13%1091.49%3,09342.25%7,322
Palo Alto3,57671.78%1,33826.86%681.36%2,23844.92%4,982
Plymouth10,66176.31%3,10422.22%2061.47%7,55754.09%13,971
Pocahontas2,72776.13%79622.22%591.65%1,93153.91%3,582
Polk112,24043.70%140,07554.54%4,5231.76%-27,835-10.84%256,838
Pottawattamie26,33559.10%17,46839.20%7561.70%8,86719.90%44,559
Poweshiek5,75857.51%4,06740.62%1881.88%1,69116.89%10,013
Ringgold2,01575.02%63823.75%331.23%1,37751.27%2,686
Sac4,10075.09%1,28923.61%711.30%2,81151.48%5,460
Scott45,97651.01%42,47947.13%1,6781.86%3,4973.88%90,133
Shelby4,60070.71%1,81127.84%941.45%2,78942.87%6,505
Sioux16,05384.49%2,62613.82%3221.69%13,42770.67%19,001
Story21,66543.74%26,76554.04%1,0962.21%-5,100-10.30%49,526
Tama5,37962.43%3,07035.63%1671.94%2,30926.80%8,616
Taylor2,38177.28%66621.62%341.10%1,71555.66%3,081
Union4,04467.25%1,87431.17%951.58%2,17036.08%6,013
Van Buren2,78576.83%77821.46%621.71%2,00755.37%3,625
Wapello9,47965.00%4,89633.57%2081.43%4,58331.43%14,583
Warren19,48659.40%12,71238.75%6061.85%6,77420.65%32,804
Washington7,11961.43%4,29737.08%1721.48%2,82224.35%11,588
Wayne2,42677.66%64320.58%551.76%1,78357.08%3,124
Webster10,85064.78%5,64133.68%2571.53%5,20931.10%16,748
Winnebago3,63664.45%1,90933.84%971.72%1,72730.61%5,642
Winneshiek6,42753.65%5,32144.42%2311.93%1,1069.23%11,979
Woodbury25,96960.50%16,14537.62%8071.88%9,82422.88%42,921
Worth2,71563.33%1,50835.18%641.49%1,20728.15%4,287
Wright3,85367.32%1,77030.93%1001.75%2,08336.39%5,723
Totals927,01955.73%707,27842.52%29,2091.76%219,74113.21%1,663,506

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
County flips
Legend

  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won all four congressional districts.[53]

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
1st53.29%44.86%Mariannette Miller-Meeks
2nd54.11%44.15%Ashley Hinson
3rd51.33%46.94%Zach Nunn
4th64.83%33.47%Randy Feenstra

Analysis

[edit]

AnUpper Midwestern state previously considered a battleground and a bellwether state for decades, Iowa voted significantly more Republican than the nation-at-large in both2016 and2020 and is now considered a moderatelyred state at the federal and state levels. RepublicanDonald Trump won the state by a comfortable margin of 8.2% while losing nationally in 2020, despite polls indicating a close race. Biden became the first Democrat to be elected president without winning Iowa sinceJimmy Carter in1976. Furthermore, during the2022 midterms, all three statewide incumbent Republicans (GovernorKim Reynolds, Secretary of AgricultureMike Naig, and Secretary of StatePaul Pate) won reelection by more than 18%, two of three statewide incumbent Democrats (28-year incumbent Attorney GeneralTom Miller and 40-year incumbent TreasurerMichael Fitzgerald) lost to Republican challengers, and the remaining incumbent Democrat (four-year incumbent AuditorRob Sand) won by fewer than 3,000 votes, or 0.24%. Republicans alsowon all four of Iowa's U.S. House seats.[54][55]

Iowa handed RepublicanDonald Trump a decisive victory, doing so by a margin of 219,741 votes. This election marks the third consecutive cycle in which Iowa voted for the Republican candidate in a presidential election. Notably, Trump improved his margins in 98 of 99 counties and gained significant support across all demographics, performing better insuburban,rural, andurban areas.[56] Trump became the first Republican to winScott County sinceRonald Reagan in1984.

This is the first election since 1968 that Iowa voted to the right ofAlaska, a state that only voted Democratic in 1964. Iowa andFlorida also voted for Trump by over 13% in 2024 after having previously voted twice for DemocratBarack Obama.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^While voting was ongoing, Williamson suspended and then unsuspended her campaign.
  2. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^abcdefghijKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^"Other" with 1%
  5. ^abc"Someone else" with 1%
  6. ^With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. ^"Not sure" with 3%; "Don't want to say" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 0%
  8. ^"Someone else" with 15%
  9. ^"Someone else" with 3%, "would not vote" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ^Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
  2. ^Poll sponsored by RealClearDefense
  3. ^abcdefghijklPoll sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation
  4. ^abcdePoll sponsored by theDes Moines Register & Mediacom Iowa
  5. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign
  6. ^Poll conducted for American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce

References

[edit]
  1. ^Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021)."Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats".NPR.Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. RetrievedAugust 20, 2021.
  2. ^"270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map".270toWin.com. RetrievedFebruary 15, 2024.
  3. ^Pfannenstiel, Brianne."Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedNovember 4, 2024.
  4. ^"Harris grabs unexpected last-minute lead over Trump in Iowa poll | US elections 2024 | The Guardian".amp.theguardian.com. November 3, 2024. RetrievedNovember 4, 2024.
  5. ^"What to Make of the Shock Poll Showing Harris Ahead in Iowa?".Townhall.com. November 4, 2024. RetrievedNovember 4, 2024.
  6. ^Pfannenstiel, Brianne."Pollster J. Ann Selzer: 'I'll be reviewing data' after Iowa Poll misses big Trump win".The Des Moines Register. RetrievedNovember 6, 2024.
  7. ^"Trump's Iowa Win Is a Harsh Reminder to Never Trust Election Polls".The New Republic.ISSN 0028-6583. RetrievedNovember 6, 2024.
  8. ^Reilly, Liam (November 17, 2024)."Top pollster Ann Selzer to retire after bombshell Iowa poll ended in huge miss"".CNN. RetrievedNovember 17, 2024.
  9. ^"I investigated Ann Selzers poll showing Trump losing".MSN.com. RetrievedNovember 20, 2024.
  10. ^"DNC's new calendar, will release caucus results on Super Tuesday".Iowa Public Radio. October 6, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  11. ^"Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus Results".Des Moines Register. RetrievedMarch 5, 2024.
  12. ^"Iowa Republican Presidential Nominating Process".The Green Papers.
  13. ^"Libertarian Party of Iowa announces it will hold caucuses Jan. 15".
  14. ^Bunge, Mike (January 16, 2024)."Libertarian Party of Iowa announces the winner of its statewide Presidential caucus".KIMT 3. RetrievedJanuary 17, 2024.
  15. ^Bunge, Mike (January 16, 2024)."Libertarian Party of Iowa announces the winner of its statewide Presidential caucus".KIMT. Allen Media Broadcasting.Archived from the original on January 16, 2024. RetrievedJanuary 16, 2024.
  16. ^"2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings".cookpolitical.com.Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  17. ^"Presidential Ratings".insideelections.com.Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  18. ^"2024 Electoral College ratings".centerforpolitics.org.University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  19. ^"2024 presidential predictions".elections2024.thehill.com/.The Hill. September 18, 2024. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2024.
  20. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".projects.cnalysis.com/.CNalysis. December 30, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  21. ^"Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2024.
  22. ^"Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model".The Economist. RetrievedJuly 15, 2024.
  23. ^Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024)."2024 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. RetrievedJune 11, 2024.
  24. ^"Presidential Election Preview 2024".NBC News.
  25. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
  26. ^"InsiderAdvantage Iowa Survey".InsiderAdvantage. November 4, 2024.
  27. ^"SoCal Strategies Iowa Poll".Substack. November 3, 2024.
  28. ^"November 2024 Iowa Poll: Trump 53%, Harris 43%".Emerson College Polling. November 2, 2024.
  29. ^"Survey of Likely General Election Voters"(PDF).Cygnal. October 1, 2024. RetrievedOctober 2, 2024.
  30. ^Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 2, 2024)."Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how".The Des Moines Register.
  31. ^Pfannenstiel, Brianne (September 15, 2024)."Trump's Iowa lead shrinks significantly as Kamala Harris replaces Biden, Iowa Poll shows".The Des Moines Register.
  32. ^"Iowans Seek Protection From Property Taxes and Income Taxes; Grapple with Inflation".Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. July 15, 2024.
  33. ^abc"Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump".Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  34. ^Pfannenstiel, Brianne (March 5, 2024)."Iowa Poll: Trump dominates Biden in lead-up to likely 2024 presidential election rematch".The Des Moines Register.
  35. ^"Poll: Iowans Want Constitutional Protection From Tax Increases".Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. February 16, 2024.
  36. ^Zogby, Jeremy (January 5, 2024)."The Zogby Report - 01.05.24 – The State of Nikki Haley and Iowa".John Zogby Strategies.
  37. ^Mumford, Camille (December 20, 2023)."Iowa 2024 Poll: Trump Maintains Support, Haley Catches DeSantis For Second Place".Emerson Polling.
  38. ^"Iowa 2024 Poll: Plurality of Independent Voters Disapprove of Gov. Reynolds".Emerson Polling. October 13, 2023.
  39. ^abc"ITRF Poll: Iowans Pessimistic About the Direction of the Country".Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. October 4, 2023.
  40. ^ab"Iowa 2024: Biden and Trump Remain Frontrunners In Caucuses, But Both Losing Ground".Emerson Polling. September 12, 2023.
  41. ^"American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce Releases Its First 2024 Presidential Race National and Iowa Surveys of Voters, Conducted by HarrisX".PR Newswire. August 21, 2023.
  42. ^ab"Iowa Poll: Trump Takes Majority of GOP Caucus-Goers, Window Closing".Big Data Poll. July 13, 2023.
  43. ^abMumford, Camille (May 25, 2023)."Iowa 2024: Biden and Trump Start with Significant Leads in Party Caucuses".Emerson Polling.
  44. ^ab"ITRF Poll: Economy and Taxes are Top of Mind for Iowa Voters".Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. April 10, 2023.
  45. ^Mumford, Camille (October 7, 2022)."Iowa 2022: Republican Candidates Grassley and Reynolds Hold Double-Digit Leads in US Senate and Gubernatorial Elections".Emerson Polling.
  46. ^"Strong Support for Republicans; Voters Focused on Inflation".Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. October 6, 2022.
  47. ^"Survey of Likely General Election Voters Iowa Statewide"(PDF).Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. July 22, 2022.
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  50. ^"Survey of Likely 2022 General Election Voters Iowa Statewide"(PDF).Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. October 25, 2021.
  51. ^Pfannenstiel, Brianne (June 17, 2024)."Trump maintains big lead over Biden and RFK Jr. despite felony conviction, Iowa Poll shows".The Des Moines Register.
  52. ^"Official Canvass by County"(PDF).Iowa SOS. RetrievedDecember 6, 2024.
  53. ^"Dra 2020".
  54. ^"Iowa Election Results and Maps 2022 | CNN Politics".CNN. RetrievedNovember 21, 2023.
  55. ^Murray, Isabella."The congressional race that could indicate just how red Iowa has shifted".ABC News. RetrievedNovember 21, 2023.
  56. ^"Iowa Presidential Election Results".The New York Times. November 5, 2024.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedNovember 12, 2024.
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