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2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut

← 2020
November 5, 2024
2028 →
Turnout76.17%[1]Decrease
 
NomineeKamala HarrisDonald Trump
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateCaliforniaFlorida
Running mateTim WalzJD Vance
Electoral vote70
Popular vote992,053736,918
Percentage56.40%41.89%

County results
Municipality results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Connecticut
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The2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Connecticut voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of Connecticut has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionment due to the2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]

Like most ofNew England, Connecticut is considered solidly Democratic, having voted for Joe Biden in2020 by more than 20%. The state last voted for a Republican presidential candidate inGeorge H. W. Bush's landslide victory in the1988 election.

Harris comfortably won the state by 14.5 points as overall turnout decreased by 10.1 points, performing worse than Biden in2020, but slightly better thanClinton in2016. Meanwhile, Trump secured 41.9% of the vote to record the best Republican performance in Connecticut since2004.[3] With this election being the first under the state's newCouncil of Government system, Harris won 6 and Trump won 3 of the 9 county-equivalents.

Primary elections

[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Connecticut Republican presidential primary

The Connecticut Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside theNew York primary.[4]

Connecticut Republican primary, April 2, 2024[5]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump34,75077.88%28028
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)6,22913.96%000
Uncommitted2,1664.85%000
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)1,2892.89%000
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)1840.41%000
Total:44,618100.00%28028

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Connecticut Democratic presidential primary

The Connecticut Democratic primary was held on April 2, 2024.

Connecticut Democratic primary, April 2, 2024[6]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)55,53384.8%6060
Uncommitted7,61911.6%
Marianne Williamson1,4902.3%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)5770.9%
Cenk Uygur (withdrawn)3100.5%
Total:65,529100.0%601479

Libertarian primary

[edit]

TheLibertarian Party of Connecticut held aranked-choice straw poll on April 2, 2024.[7]

2024 Connecticut Libertarian straw poll
CandidateRound 1T.Round 2T.Round 3T.Round 4T.Round 5T.Round 6T.Round 7
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
Chase Oliver3734.9%+13835.8%3837.6%+34141.0%+14242.4%+24444.4%+54951.0%
Jacob Hornberger1211.3%1211.3%+11312.9%+11414.0%+21616.2%+42020.2%+42425.0%
Michael Rectenwald1414.6%1413.2%1413.9%1414.0%+21616.2%+21818.2%+52324.0%
Joshua Smith109.4%+11110.4%1110.9%1111.0%+21313.1%+41717.2%–17Eliminated
Mike ter Maat98.5%98.5%98.9%+11010.0%+21212.1%–12Eliminated
Lars Mapstead76.6%+187.5%87.9%+21010.0%–10Eliminated
Charles Ballay76.6%+187.5%87.9%–8Eliminated
None of the above65.7%65.7%–6Eliminated
Joseph Collins Jr.43.8%–4Eliminated
Active ballots106–5101–1100–199–396

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[8]Solid DDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections[9]Solid DApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10]Safe DJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11]Safe DDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis[12]Solid DDecember 30, 2023
CNN[13]Solid DJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist[14]Safe DAugust 28, 2024
538[15]Solid DAugust 23, 2024
RCP[16]Solid DJune 26, 2024
NBC News[17]Safe DOctober 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
MassINC Polling Group[18][A]September 12–18, 2024800 (LV)± 3.7%52%37%3%8%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024Joe Bidenwithdraws from the race.
John Zogby Strategies[19][B]April 13–21, 2024411 (LV)55%38%7%
Emerson College[20][C]October 19–21, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%49%40%11%
Emerson College[21][C]September 7–9, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%49%36%15%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[22]July 26–27, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%52%39%9%
Emerson College[23]May 10–11, 20221,000 (RV)± 3.0%51%38%11%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[19][B]April 13–21, 2024411 (LV)49%41%10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[19][B]April 13–21, 2024411 (LV)50%33%17%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut[24]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic992,05356.40%Decrease 2.84%
Republican736,91841.89%Increase 2.68%
Green14,2810.81%Increase 0.40%
Independent8,4480.48%N/A
Libertarian6,7290.38%Decrease 0.73%
Socialism and Liberation
2640.02%N/A
American Solidarity
1620.01%N/A
Independent
1280.01%N/A
Independent
210.00%N/A
Write-in60.00%Decrease 0.03%
Total votes1,759,010100.00%N/A
Shift by county
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Republican — >15%
  •   Republican — +12.5−15%
  •   Republican — +10−12.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5−10%
  •   Republican — +5−7.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5−5%
  •   Republican — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5−5%
  •   Democratic — +5−7.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +10−12.5%
  •   Democratic — +12.5−15%
  •   Democratic — >15%

By county

[edit]
icon
This sectiondoes notcite anysources. Please helpimprove this section byadding citations to reliable sources. Unsourced material may be challenged andremoved.(January 2024) (Learn how and when to remove this message)
CountyKamala Harris
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Fairfield267,01959.04%178,26339.41%7,0211.55%88,75619.63%452,303
Hartford259,36660.41%162,57237.87%7,3871.72%96,79422.54%429,325
Litchfield47,94045.24%56,45253.27%1,5771.49%-8,512-8.03%105,969
Middlesex54,17355.55%41,65442.71%1,6921.74%12,51912.84%97,519
New Haven218,98155.02%171,43543.08%7,5711.90%47,54611.94%397,987
New London76,19055.41%58,85842.81%2,4521.78%17,33212.60%137,500
Tolland43,31153.13%36,77345.11%1,4361.76%6,5388.02%81,520
Windham25,07344.08%30,91154.34%9031.59%-5,838-10.26%56,887
Totals992,05356.40%736,91841.89%30,0391.71%255,13514.51%1,759,010

[25]

By Council of Government

[edit]
Council of government results
Council of GovernmentKamala Harris
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Capitol Planning Region285,10560.09%181,03838.16%8,3021.75%104,06721.93%474,445
Greater Bridgeport83,46160.90%51,51937.59%2,0681.51%31,94223.31%137,048
Lower Connecticut River Valley58,36055.84%44,31842.41%1,8261.75%14,04213.44%104,504
Naugatuck Valley99,23745.61%115,29052.99%3,0601.41%-16,053-7.38%217,587
Northeastern Connecticut21,16541.52%29,02856.95%7771.52%-7,863-15.43%50,970
Northwest Hills31,13748.58%31,94449.84%1,0091.57%-807-1.26%64,090
South Central Connecticut156,24858.96%103,08738.90%5,6732.14%53,16120.06%265,008
Southeastern Connecticut76,14655.58%58,39242.62%2,4561.79%17,75412.96%136,994
Western Connecticut181,19458.76%122,30239.66%4,8681.58%58,89219.10%308,364
Totals992,05356.40%736,91841.89%30,0391.71%255,13514.51%1,759,010

[26]

Swing by planning region
(black border denotes flips)[27][28]
Legend
  •   Republican — +0–2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5–5%
  •   Republican — +5–7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5–10%

By congressional district

[edit]

Harris won all five congressional districts.[24]

DistrictHarrisTrumpRepresentative
1st60.61%37.73%John B. Larson
2nd53.03%45.30%Joe Courtney
3rd56.07%42.01%Rosa DeLauro
4th60.90%37.54%Jim Himes
5th52.01%46.42%Jahana Hayes

Analysis

[edit]

Harris won all five congressional districts, performing best in the fourth district, matching Biden's strongest result there in 2020. However, she ceded ground by 1.71% to 3.93% across districts compared to 2020, despite a uniform victory. Such a result was also consistent with her underperformance in comparison to Democratic nominees for theelection to the House of Representatives.

Conversely, Trump outran Republican nominees in four out of five districts, earning a poorer result in the fifth district. He still improved on his 2020 performance in all five districts, gaining 2.01% to 3.71% more votes.[29][24]

Fourteen towns that voted forBiden in2020 voted forTrump in 2024:Andover,Bristol,Brookfield,Burlington,Derby,Durham,Haddam,Hampton,Montville,New Milford,North Canaan,Suffield,Willington, andWoodstock. One town (Warren) that voted for Trump in 2020 voted forHarris in 2024.[30]

A graphical representation of Harris's (top) and Trump's (bottom) in comparison to 2024 House election (left) and 2020 presidential election (right)

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ^Poll sponsored byThe Connecticut Mirror
  2. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign
  3. ^abPoll sponsored byWTNH-TV

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Presidential Election 2024".Connecticut Secretary of the State.
  2. ^Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021)."Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats".NPR.Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. RetrievedAugust 20, 2021.
  3. ^"Connecticut Presidential Election Voting History".270toWin. RetrievedNovember 16, 2024.
  4. ^"Election Calendars".
  5. ^"Connecticut Presidential Primary". The AP. May 6, 2024. RetrievedMay 17, 2024.
  6. ^"Connecticut Presidential Primary". The AP. May 6, 2024. RetrievedMay 16, 2024.
  7. ^@LPofCT (April 3, 2024)."The winner of our LPCT Presidential Primary straw poll is @ChaseForLiberty" (Tweet) – viaTwitter.
  8. ^"2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings".Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  9. ^"Presidential Ratings".Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  10. ^"2024 Electoral College ratings".Sabato's Crystal Ball.University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  11. ^"2024 presidential predictions".The Hill. December 14, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  12. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".CNalysis. December 30, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  13. ^"Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2024.
  14. ^"Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model".The Economist. RetrievedAugust 29, 2024.
  15. ^Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024)."2024 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. RetrievedAugust 24, 2024.
  16. ^"2024 RCP Electoral College Map".RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. RetrievedJune 26, 2024.
  17. ^"Presidential Election Preview 2024".NBC News.
  18. ^Pazniokas, Mark (September 23, 2024)."CT Mirror poll shows Harris leading Trump by 16 points in state".The Connecticut Mirror.
  19. ^abc"Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump".Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  20. ^Mumford, Camille (October 25, 2022)."Connecticut 2022: Incumbents Blumenthal & Lamont Maintain Leads Ahead of Midterm Elections".Emerson Polling.
  21. ^Latina, Jodi (September 15, 2022)."News 8/The Hill/Emerson Polling looks at abortion rights, presidential approval rating".WTNH-TV.
  22. ^Keating, Christopher (August 1, 2022)."New poll shows Blumenthal ahead in U.S. Senate race by double digits and that many voters don't know his challengers".The Hartford Courant.
  23. ^"Emerson Polling - Connecticut 2022 Poll: Lamont Leads Stefanowski in Gubernatorial Election".Emerson College Polling. May 18, 2022.
  24. ^abc"Statement of Vote"(PDF).Secretary of the State of Connecticut.Archived(PDF) from the original on April 1, 2025. RetrievedMarch 18, 2025.
  25. ^Leip, David."Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".uselectionatlas.org. RetrievedMay 26, 2017.
  26. ^"Connecticut Election Results".Bloomberg. RetrievedNovember 13, 2024.
  27. ^"Connecticut Election Results".Bloomberg. RetrievedNovember 13, 2024.
  28. ^"Connecticut Election Results".Bloomberg. November 5, 2024. RetrievedNovember 13, 2024.
  29. ^Nir, David."Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district".Daily Kos. RetrievedNovember 15, 2024.
  30. ^"Connecticut 2024 Election: Analysis Shows Declining Voter Turnout and Shifting Voting Patterns".CTData. November 19, 2024.
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