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2024 United States presidential election in Alabama

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Alabama

← 2020
November 5, 2024
2028 →
Turnout58.5% (Decrease 4.6pp)[1]
 
NomineeDonald TrumpKamala Harris
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaCalifornia
Running mateJD VanceTim Walz
Electoral vote90
Popular vote1,462,616772,412
Percentage64.57%34.10%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie

  40–50%

No Votes

  


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Alabama
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Alabama participated, alongside the 49 other US states andWashington, D.C., in the2024 United States presidential election on November 5, 2024. Alabama chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of Alabama has nine electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionment due to the2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]

Alabama voted for theRepublican nominee,Donald Trump (representing neighboringFlorida), by a comfortable margin in the election, with him winning the state by 30.47%.[3] This was the largest Republican win in the state since1972, against the backdrop ofRichard Nixon's49-state landslide re-election. Prior to the election, all major news organizations marked Alabama a safered state.[4]

Turnout noticeably fell, with Harris receiving over 70,000 fewer votes than Biden, while Trump increased his raw vote total by over 20,000. Harris had the lowest vote share of any Democratic nominee in Alabama since 1972, slightly less thanHillary Clinton’s 34.36% in2016.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Alabama Democratic presidential primary

The Alabama Democratic primary was held onSuper Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Alabama Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[5]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)168,08089.50%5252
Uncommitted11,2836.01%00
Dean Phillips8,4424.50%00
Total:187,805100.00%52759


Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Alabama Republican presidential primary

The Alabama Republican primary was held onSuper Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Alabama Republican primary, March 5, 2024[6][7]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump499,14783.20%50050
Nikki Haley77,98913.00%000
Uncommitted9,8071.63%000
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)8,4521.41%000
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)1,8640.31%000
Chris Christie (withdrawn)1,4420.24%000
David Stuckenberg7520.13%000
Ryan Binkley5090.08%000
Total:599,962100.00%50050


General election

[edit]

On April 9, 2024, Alabama Secretary of StateWes Allen informed theDemocratic National Committee that state law would not permit certification in time to include President Biden on the November ballot, as the2024 Democratic National Convention (DNC) was to take place days after the state deadline of August 15.[8] The following month, legislation was approved extending the deadline to August 23, one day after the conclusion of the DNC, allowing Biden to appear on the ballot.[9] In early August, after Vice PresidentKamala Harris replaced Biden in the race, Democrats held a virtual convention to nominate Harris, a process then formalized at the DNC convention. The day after the convention's conclusion, theAlabama Democratic Party filed paperwork to ensure Harris's inclusion on the Alabama ballot in November.[10]

Voting laws

[edit]

A study by the Center for Election Innovation & Research in July 2024 found that Alabama is one of only three remaining states (along with Mississippi and New Hampshire) to offer no early in-person voting option for the 2024 general election. The state also requires an eligible reason to vote by mail.[11]

In August 2024,Alabama Secretary of StateWes Allen announced a process for purging 3,251 registered Alabama voters and referred them to the state attorney general’s office for criminal prosecution.[12][13] In September 2024, the Department of Justice sued Alabama for violating the National Voter Registration Act.[14][15] In October 2024, district judgeAnna Manasco ruled in favor of the Department of Justice, ordering the state to restore the voter registrations.[16][17] Alabama secretary of state’s chief of staff Clay Helms testified that 2,000 of the purged voters were legally registered citizens.[17]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[18]Solid RDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections[19]Solid RApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20]Safe RJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[21]Safe RDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis[22]Solid RDecember 30, 2023
CNN[23]Solid RJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist[24]Safe RJune 12, 2024
538[25]Solid RJune 11, 2024
RCP[26]Solid RJune 26, 2024
NBC News[27]Safe ROctober 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024Joe Bidenwithdraws from the race.
John Zogby Strategies[28][A]April 13–21, 2024513 (LV)60%32%8%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[29]February 29 – March 3, 2024191 (RV)56%37%7%[b]
179 (LV)57%38%5%[c]
WPA Intelligence (R)[30]August 23–24 & 26, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%57%32%12%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[28][A]April 13–21, 2024513 (LV)56%31%13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[28][A]April 13–21, 2024513 (LV)56%30%14%

Results

[edit]
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

2024 United States presidential election in Alabama[31]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican1,462,61664.57%+2.54%
Democratic772,41234.10%−2.47%
Independent12,0750.53%N/A
Independent[d]4,9300.22%−0.86%
Green4,3190.19%N/A
Write-in8,7380.39%+0.07%
Total votes2,265,090100.00%N/A

By county

[edit]
County[31]Donald Trump
Republican
Kamala Harris
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Autauga20,48472.43%7,43926.30%3581.27%13,04546.13%28,281
Baldwin95,79878.36%24,93420.40%1,5171.24%70,86457.97%122,249
Barbour5,60656.88%4,15842.19%910.92%1,44814.69%9,855
Bibb7,57281.80%1,61917.49%660.71%5,95364.31%9,257
Blount25,35490.03%2,5769.15%2330.83%22,77880.88%28,163
Bullock1,10126.78%2,98372.56%270.66%-1,882-45.78%4,111
Butler5,17260.99%3,25138.34%570.67%1,92122.65%8,480
Calhoun34,91271.76%13,19427.12%5471.12%21,71844.64%48,653
Chambers8,71161.15%5,40537.94%1290.91%3,30623.21%14,245
Cherokee11,35887.33%1,55311.94%950.73%9,80575.39%13,006
Chilton16,92085.61%2,69813.65%1450.73%14,22271.96%19,763
Choctaw4,10361.64%2,51537.79%380.57%1,58823.86%6,656
Clarke6,96558.25%4,92741.20%660.55%2,03817.04%11,958
Clay5,73484.73%99314.67%400.59%4,74170.06%6,767
Cleburne6,98891.33%6057.91%580.76%6,38383.43%7,651
Coffee17,49578.39%4,60120.61%2231.00%12,89457.77%22,319
Colbert19,71472.58%7,13726.28%3091.14%12,57746.31%27,160
Conecuh3,42356.57%2,58042.64%480.79%84313.93%6,051
Coosa3,75871.34%1,47828.06%320.61%2,28043.28%5,268
Covington14,67785.86%2,31413.54%1040.61%12,36372.32%17,095
Crenshaw5,00077.09%1,45722.46%290.45%3,54354.63%6,486
Cullman38,70489.70%4,0399.36%4030.93%34,66580.34%43,146
Dale14,47675.64%4,48423.43%1790.94%9,99252.21%19,139
Dallas5,19033.38%10,23665.84%1210.78%-5,046-32.46%15,547
DeKalb25,63386.42%3,75812.67%2690.91%21,87573.75%29,660
Elmore31,37475.37%9,77423.48%4761.14%21,60051.89%41,624
Escambia10,88472.77%3,96426.50%1090.73%6,92046.27%14,957
Etowah35,65377.28%10,02721.73%4570.99%25,62655.54%46,137
Fayette7,15885.53%1,14213.65%690.82%6,01671.88%8,369
Franklin10,41786.11%1,56812.96%1120.93%8,84973.15%12,097
Geneva10,92988.13%1,39111.22%810.65%9,53876.91%12,401
Greene88521.91%3,13377.57%210.52%-2,248-55.66%4,039
Hale3,36946.12%3,86852.95%680.93%-499-6.83%7,305
Henry6,98974.99%2,26324.28%680.73%4,72650.71%9,320
Houston32,46973.21%11,35225.60%5281.19%21,11747.62%44,349
Jackson20,07385.21%3,27613.91%2070.88%16,79771.31%23,556
Jefferson131,12343.90%162,11254.27%5,4691.83%-30,989-10.37%298,704
Lamar6,03387.56%80611.70%510.74%5,22775.86%6,890
Lauderdale32,70874.95%10,32623.66%6031.38%22,38251.29%43,637
Lawrence13,02480.78%2,98318.50%1150.71%10,04162.28%16,122
Lee46,02062.93%25,79835.28%1,3091.79%20,22227.65%73,127
Limestone37,88771.04%14,58127.34%8641.62%23,30643.70%53,332
Lowndes1,75831.09%3,86768.38%300.53%-2,109-37.29%5,655
Macon1,68221.47%6,08477.66%680.87%-4,402-56.19%7,834
Madison105,43053.35%87,82444.44%4,3632.21%17,6068.91%197,617
Marengo4,99551.59%4,63147.83%560.58%3643.76%9,682
Marion12,24590.42%1,1978.84%1010.75%11,04881.58%13,543
Marshall34,43485.26%5,55313.75%4010.99%28,88171.51%40,388
Mobile100,75957.52%72,05541.14%2,3501.34%28,70416.39%175,164
Monroe6,00761.20%3,74038.10%680.69%2,26723.10%9,815
Montgomery30,47733.94%57,94664.53%1,3751.53%-27,469-30.59%89,798
Morgan40,44975.54%12,39223.14%7021.31%28,05752.40%53,543
Perry1,26928.42%3,17471.09%220.49%-1,905-42.67%4,465
Pickens5,46561.32%3,38838.02%590.66%2,07723.31%8,912
Pike8,22462.14%4,89937.02%1110.84%3,32525.12%13,234
Randolph9,10282.07%1,92017.31%690.62%7,18264.76%11,091
Russell10,07848.64%10,42250.30%2181.05%-344-1.66%20,718
Shelby79,66669.46%33,08728.85%1,9451.70%46,57940.61%114,698
St. Clair35,50181.56%7,64017.55%3850.88%27,86164.01%43,526
Sumter1,54229.06%3,72570.19%400.75%-2,183-41.13%5,307
Talladega22,10066.47%10,89832.78%2520.76%11,20233.69%33,250
Tallapoosa14,88474.33%4,97524.85%1640.82%9,90949.49%20,023
Tuscaloosa50,72459.50%33,39939.17%1,1331.33%17,32520.32%85,256
Walker25,46485.49%4,10213.77%2200.74%21,36271.72%29,786
Washington6,53477.41%1,86322.07%440.52%4,67155.34%8,441
Wilcox1,79334.07%3,44965.53%210.40%-1,656-31.46%5,263
Winston10,19191.41%8847.93%740.66%9,30783.48%11,149
Totals1,462,61664.57%772,41234.10%30,0621.33%690,20430.47%2,265,090

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won five of seven congressional districts.[32]

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
1st76.96%21.97%Jerry Carl (118th Congress)
Barry Moore (119th Congress)
2nd45.32%53.39%Barry Moore (118th Congress)
Shomari Figures (119th Congress)
3rd72.21%26.19%Mike Rogers
4th82.65%16.34%Robert Aderholt
5th63.59%34.61%Dale Strong
6th68.64%29.70%Gary Palmer
7th37.37%61.34%Terri Sewell

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

Analysis

[edit]

ADeep Southern state in theBible Belt, Alabama is one of the mostsocially conservative states in the nation and is considered to be deeplyred, not having voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since it supportedJimmy Carter of neighboringGeorgia in1976. Since then, the state has been competitive at this level in three elections:1980 (when Carter narrowly lost Alabama while decisively losing re-electionnationwide);1992, and1996 (whenSouthernerBill Clinton lost the state by just under 7 points in both of his victories). In addition, Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers of thestate legislature, and the only Democrat to win a statewide election in Alabama since 2008[33] is formerU.S. SenatorDoug Jones, who narrowly won a2017 special election but was commandingly defeated in2020.

Donald Trump was able to increase his support and gain ground in every county. He narrowly flipped majority-BlackMarengo County into the Republican column for the first time in a presidential race sinceGeorge W. Bush did so by a similar margin in2004.Kamala Harris only narrowly held ontoHuntsville's urban core by 3.4%, a decline from Biden's 6% margin four years earlier. Though she kept her margin of defeat in the encompassingMadison County within the single digits, it was still a slight drop from Biden's.[34]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^"Another candidate" with 5%
  3. ^"Another candidate" with 4%
  4. ^abcOliver and ter Maat were nominated by theLibertarian Party of Alabama but placed on the ballot as independents because the party did not haveballot access.
  5. ^Replacement forButch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

  1. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Alabama voter turnout rate for presidential election 58.5%, lowest in over 30 years". November 6, 2024. RetrievedFebruary 7, 2025.
  2. ^Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021)."Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats".NPR.Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. RetrievedFebruary 7, 2023.
  3. ^"Alabama Presidential Election Results".The New York Times. November 5, 2024.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedNovember 19, 2024.
  4. ^"270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map".270toWin.com. RetrievedDecember 25, 2024.
  5. ^"Certification of Results - Democratic Party (Excel file with vote totals)".Alabama Secretary of State. RetrievedMarch 28, 2024.
  6. ^"2024 Qualified Candidates".Alabama Republican Party. February 29, 2024. RetrievedMarch 5, 2024.
  7. ^"Alabama Presidential Primary". The AP. April 30, 2024. RetrievedMay 9, 2024.
  8. ^Jack Forrest (April 9, 2024)."Biden may miss window to appear on Alabama's presidential ballot, secretary of state says".CNN. RetrievedMay 3, 2024.
  9. ^Kim Chandler (May 2, 2024)."Alabama lawmakers approve legislation to ensure President Biden is on the November ballot".Associated Press. RetrievedMay 3, 2024.
  10. ^Stephenson, Jemma (August 23, 2024)."Kamala Harris, Donald Trump get on Alabama state ballots near deadline".Alabama Reflector. RetrievedSeptember 7, 2024.
  11. ^"The Expansion of Voting Before Election Day, 2000–2024".The Center for Election Innovation & Research. RetrievedSeptember 7, 2024.
  12. ^Levine, Sam (August 30, 2024)."'The chilling effect': behind GOP-led states' efforts to purge some voters from the rolls".The Guardian.ISSN 0261-3077. RetrievedNovember 2, 2024.
  13. ^"Federal judge blocks Alabama's voter purge program ahead of election".NBC News. October 16, 2024. RetrievedNovember 2, 2024.
  14. ^Cole, Devan (September 29, 2024)."Justice Department sues Alabama over its effort to remove more than 3,000 names from voter rolls too close to election | CNN Politics".CNN. RetrievedNovember 2, 2024.
  15. ^Lo Wang, Hansi (September 27, 2024)."Justice Department sues Alabama, claiming it purged voters too close to the election".NPR. RetrievedNovember 2, 2024.
  16. ^Rubin, April (October 16, 2024)."Federal judge orders Alabama to halt voter purge program and restore eligible voters".Axios.
  17. ^abRiddle, Safiyah (October 16, 2024)."A federal judge halts an Alabama program that purged thousands of legal voters".AP News. RetrievedNovember 2, 2024.
  18. ^"2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings".cookpolitical.com.Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  19. ^"Presidential Ratings".insideelections.com.Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  20. ^"2024 Electoral College ratings".centerforpolitics.org.University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  21. ^"2024 presidential predictions".elections2024.thehill.com/.The Hill. December 14, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  22. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".projects.cnalysis.com/.CNalysis. December 30, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  23. ^"Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2024.
  24. ^"Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model".The Economist. RetrievedJune 12, 2024.
  25. ^Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024)."2024 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. Archived fromthe original on June 11, 2024. RetrievedJune 11, 2024.
  26. ^"2024 RCP Electoral College Map".RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. RetrievedJune 26, 2024.
  27. ^"Presidential Election Preview 2024".NBC News.
  28. ^abc"Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump".Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  29. ^"Mainstreet Research Survey - Super Tuesday States"(PDF).FAU Polling. March 4, 2024.
  30. ^Gorman, Reese (August 30, 2023)."Alabama voters support Tuberville military hold abortion protest, poll says".The Washington Examiner.
  31. ^abAllen, Wes (November 26, 2024)."Final Canvass of Results"(PDF).Secretary of State of Alabama.Archived(PDF) from the original on November 4, 2025. RetrievedJanuary 12, 2026.
  32. ^"Dra 2020".
  33. ^"Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".uselectionatlas.org. RetrievedApril 15, 2025.
  34. ^"DRA 2020".Daves Redistricting. RetrievedApril 15, 2025.
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