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2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Not to be confused with2024 West Virginia Senate election.
Main article:2024 United States Senate elections

2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia

← 2018
November 5, 2024
2030 →
 
NomineeJim JusticeGlenn Elliott
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote514,079207,548
Percentage68.75%27.76%

County results
Congressional district results
Justice:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

U.S. senator before election

Joe Manchin
Independent

Elected U.S. senator

Jim Justice
Republican

Elections in West Virginia
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Ballot measures

The2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent theState of West Virginia.Republican governorJim Justice won his first term in office, defeatingDemocratic Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliott. He succeededindependent incumbentJoe Manchin, who did not seek a third full term.[1]

Manchin, a Democrat until his final year in the Senate, announced he would not run for re-election shortly before switching to independent.[2] He endorsed Elliott, who won the Democratic nomination with 45% of the vote against political activistZach Shrewsbury and businessmanDon Blankenship. Justice won the Republican nomination with 62% of the vote against CongressmanAlex Mooney.

Due to West Virginia's heavy Republican lean, the absence of Manchin, Justice's personal popularity, and being held concurrently with apresidential race in a state in whichDonald Trump was expected to win by a wide margin, a Republican pickup for this seat was considered a foregone conclusion in 2024.[3][4][5][6][7] Justice was sworn in as a Senator on January 14, 2025, giving elected Republicans control of both of West Virginia’s Senate seats for the first time since 1931 and giving the state an entirely Republican congressional delegation for the first time since 1923.[a] This was the first time since the1956 special election that a Republican won West Virginia's Class I Senate Seat.

Background

[edit]

Manchin saw electoral success through the 2010s, positioning himself as acentrist toconservative Democrat with strong ties to West Virginia,[8] which is now considered adeeply red state at the federal and state levels.

The Republican Party identified this contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle.[9] Amongst the Republicans who ran for this seat were CongressmanAlex Mooney[10] and GovernorJim Justice.[11]

Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was re-elected in2018, and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, Republicans were favored to win this seat even if Manchin sought re-election.[12] After Justice announced his bid for the seat in April 2023,Elections Daily labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage against Manchin.[7] After Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets rated this seat as an expected easy flip to GOP control. While some Democratic sources hoped that a primary victory byDon Blankenship would spur Manchin to run as anindependent, Manchin himself described that notion as a "long, long, long-shot scenario" that ended when Blankenship lost the primary.[13]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Glenn Elliott

U.S. senators

Local officials

Labor Unions

Zach Shrewsbury

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Zachary Shrewsbury (D)$295,678$238,895$56,782
Glenn Elliott (D)$125,407$60,071$65,335
Don Blankenship (D)$1,000$0$1,085
Source:Federal Election Commission[26]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Elliott
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Shrewsbury
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Blankenship
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Tie
  •   30–40%
Democratic primary results[27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticGlenn Elliott46,17645.40%
DemocraticZach Shrewsbury36,75436.14%
DemocraticDon Blankenship18,77818.46%
Total votes101,708100.00%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Jim Justice

Federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Alex Mooney

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Jim Justice (R)$2,956,027$2,024,749$931,451
Alex Mooney (R)$3,266,887$2,629,525$637,362
Source:Federal Election Commission[26]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Jim
Justice
Alex
Mooney
OtherUndecided
Emerson College[57]May 2–5, 2024558 (LV)± 4.1%60%30%10%[c]
Research America[58][A]April 24 – May 1, 2024407 (LV)± 4.9%67%23%7%3%
Osage Research (R)[59][B]April 22–24, 2024400(LV)± 4.9%49%35%5%11%
NMB Research (R)[60]April 20–22, 2024500(LV)± 4.38%60%24%16%
Research America[61][A]April 3–9, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%66%24%4%6%
Emerson College[62][C]March 19–21, 2024735 (LV)± 3.6%54%17%1%22%
American Pulse Research
& Polling (R)[63][D]
November 13–14, 2023414 (LV)± 4.8%56%20%3%[d]22%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R)[64][E]September 11–13, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%62%23%15%
Research America[65][A]August 16–26, 2023402 (RV)± 4.9%58%26%16%
Orion Strategies[66][F]June 17–20, 2023651 (LV)± 6.0%56%19%9%16%
East Carolina University[67]May 22–23, 2023796 (RV)± 3.7%53%12%35%
co/efficient (R)[68]April 24–25, 2023753 (LV)± 3.5%45%17%38%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Jim
Justice
Alex
Mooney
Patrick
Morrisey
Undecided
National Public Affairs (R)[69]March 14–17, 2023360 (LV)± 5.2%43%21%10%24%
Tarrance Group (R)[70][G]February 5–7, 2023609 (LV)[e]± 4.1%53%16%21%8%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Justice
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Mooney
  •   40–50%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results[27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanJim Justice138,30761.84%
RepublicanAlex Mooney59,34826.54%
RepublicanBryan Bird7,0013.13%
RepublicanBryan McKinney6,5732.94%
RepublicanZane Lawhorn4,5172.02%
RepublicanJanet McNulty4,4041.97%
RepublicanDon Lindsay3,5031.57%
Total votes223,653100.00%

Independents

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[71]Solid R(flip)May 17, 2024
Inside Elections[4]Solid R(flip)May 9, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6]Safe R(flip)April 17, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[5]Safe R(flip)June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[7]Safe R(flip)May 4, 2023
CNalysis[72]Solid R(flip)November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[73]Solid R(flip)August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[74]Safe R(flip)October 23, 2024
538[75]Solid R(flip)October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Glenn Elliott (D)

U.S. senators

Jim Justice (R)

Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Glenn Elliott (D)$252,262$183,127$69,135
Jim Justice (R)$3,680,408$2,881,158$799,423
Source:Federal Election Commission[26]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Glenn
Elliott (D)
Jim
Justice (R)
Undecided
Research America[78][H]August 21–27, 2024400 (RV)± 4.9%28%62%10%[f]
Kaplan Strategies[79]June 4, 2024464 (RV)± 4.6%27%60%13%
Hypothetical polling

Joe Manchin vs. Jim Justice

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Jim
Justice (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College[80]October 1–4, 2023539 (RV)± 4.2%28%41%31%
Research America[65]August 16–26, 2023402 (RV)± 4.9%38%51%11%
East Carolina University[67]May 22–23, 2023957 (RV)± 3.7%32%54%1%13%
co/efficient (R)[68]April 24–25, 2023974 (LV)± 3.0%29%43%28%
Tarrance Group (R)[70][G]February 5–7, 2023609 (LRV)± 4.1%42%52%5%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[81][D]August 24–26, 2022762 (RV)± 3.5%32%47%21%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[82]January 17–20, 2022783 (LV)± 3.5%41%37%22%

Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Alex
Mooney (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College[80]October 1–4, 2023539 (RV)± 4.2%37%31%31%
Research America[65]August 16–26, 2023402 (RV)± 4.9%45%41%14%
East Carolina University[67]May 22–23, 2023957 (RV)± 3.7%40%41%1%18%
co/efficient (R)[68]April 24–25, 2023974 (LV)± 3.0%36%30%34%
Tarrance Group (R)[70][G]February 5–7, 2023609 (LRV)± 4.1%55%40%5%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[81][D]August 24–26, 2022762 (RV)± 3.5%38%45%12%5%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[82]January 17–20, 2022783 (LV)± 3.5%49%28%16%7%

Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Patrick
Morrisey (R)
OtherUndecided
Tarrance Group (R)[70][G]February 5–7, 2023609 (LRV)± 4.1%52%42%6%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[81][D]August 24–26, 2022762 (RV)± 3.5%36%50%9%5%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[82]January 17–20, 2022783 (LV)± 3.5%50%29%7%16%

Joe Manchin as an Independent vs. Jim Justice

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (I)
Jim
Justice (R)
Undecided
Tarrance Group (R)[83][G]September 24–26, 2023500 (LV)± 4.5%43%49%8%

Results

[edit]
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Republican—+20-25%
  •   Republican—+25-30%
  •   Republican—+30-40%
  •   Republican—+40-50%
  •   Republican—+>50%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia[84][85]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanJim Justice514,07968.75%+22.49%
DemocraticGlenn Elliott207,54827.76%−21.81%
LibertarianDavid Moran26,0753.49%−0.68%
Write-in150.00%N/A
Total votes747,717100.00%N/A
Republicangain fromIndependent

By county

[edit]
CountyJim Justice
Republican
Glenn Elliott
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Barbour4,96378.7%1,06917.0%2734.3%3,89461.7%6,305
Berkeley35,87065.3%16,74030.5%2,2854.2%19,13034.8%54,895
Boone5,96574.7%1,82622.9%1972.5%4,13951.8%7,988
Braxton3,81272.9%1,25524.0%1653.2%2,55748.9%5,232
Brooke6,85770.8%2,68427.7%1411.5%4,17343.1%9,682
Cabell21,48661.9%12,09334.8%1,1313.3%9,39327.1%34,710
Calhoun2,29380.3%48417.0%772.7%1,80963.3%2,854
Clay2,47978.1%59418.7%1003.2%1,88559.4%3,173
Doddridge2,37481.8%37913.1%1505.2%1,99568.7%2,903
Fayette10,14766.7%4,51229.7%5573.7%5,63537.0%15,216
Gilmer1,76376.3%48120.8%672.9%1,28255.5%2,311
Grant4,64786.2%54710.1%1992.7%4,10076.1%5,393
Greenbrier9,67665.8%4,51530.7%5213.5%5,16135.1%14,172
Hampshire8,12079.3%1,77717.4%3413.3%6,34361.9%10,238
Hancock9,33472.6%3,27725.5%2471.9%6,05757.1%12,858
Hardy4,79876.1%1,30320.7%2063.3%3,49555.4%6,307
Harrison20,39670.2%7,50825.8%1,1453.9%12,88844.4%29,049
Jackson9,49275.2%2,66921.1%4663.7%6,82354.1%12,627
Jefferson16,50957.6%11,26539.3%8843.1%5,24418.3%28,658
Kanawha42,33157.5%29,19539.7%2,10317.8%13,13617.37%73,629
Lewis5,46778.1%1,23917.7%2984.3%4,22860.4%7,004
Lincoln5,55578.9%1,28318.2%2052.9%4,27260.7%7,043
Logan8,91680.8%1,87417.0%2462.2%7,04263.8%11,036
Marion15,40663.4%7,83432.2%1,0744.4%7,57231.24%24,314
Marshall8,90267.7%4,02730.6%2251.7%4,87537.1%13,154
Mason7,89075.9%2,15620.7%3563.4%5,73455.2%10,402
McDowell4,12179.9%89817.4%1362.6%3,22362.5%5,155
Mercer18,12078.5%4,30618.7%6532.8%13,81459.8%23,079
Mineral10,15779.7%2,20717.3%3853.0%7,95062.4%12,749
Mingo6,94084.7%1,08513.2%1702.1%5,85571.5%8,195
Monongalia20,87451.0%18,27244.6%1,7804.3%2,6026.4%40,926
Monroe4,80477.0%1,23519.8%1993.2%3,56957.2%6,238
Morgan6,66275.5%1,84020.8%3233.7%4,82254.7%8,825
Nicholas7,53876.4%2,00620.3%3203.2%5,53256.1%9,864
Ohio10,75057.7%7,59940.8%2751.5%3,15116.9%18,624
Pendleton2,65879.3%61418.3%812.4%2,04461.0%3,353
Pleasants2,56977.8%64119.4%942.8%1,92858.4%3,304
Pocahontas2,64969.6%1,01426.7%1413.7%1,63542.9%3,804
Preston9,98870.6%2,47717.5%1,68711.9%7,51153.1%14,152
Putnam19,18471.2%6,84125.4%9303.5%12,34345.8%26,955
Raleigh21,79672.7%6,97023.2%1,2254.1%14,82649.5%29,991
Randolph8,10771.0%2,88125.2%4323.8%5,22645.8%11,420
Ritchie3,27883.1%54713.9%1193.0%2,73169.2%3,944
Roane4,10075.4%1,19021.9%1512.8%2,91053.5%5,441
Summers3,70872.2%1,26724.7%1603.1%2,44147.5%5,135
Taylor5,34474.2%1,51821.1%3374.7%3,82653.1%7,199
Tucker2,54470.5%84923.5%2186.0%1,69547.0%3,611
Tyler2,79578.7%64318.1%1153.2%2,15260.7%3,553
Upshur7,43776.7%1,87919.4%3743.9%5,55857.3%9,690
Wayne11,41674.9%3,39222.3%4352.9%8,02452.6%15,243
Webster2,33179.3%54118.4%692.3%1,79060.9%2,941
Wetzel4,46973.5%1,49424.6%1141.9%2,97548.9%6,077
Wirt2,00179.4%41916.6%1004.0%1,58262.8%2,520
Wood26,08471.2%9,38125.6%1,1783.2%16,70345.6%36,643
Wyoming6,20784.1%95613.0%2152.9%5,25171.0%7,378
Totals514,07968.8%207,54827.8%26,0903.5%306,53141.0%747,717

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Justice won both congressional districts.[86]

DistrictElliottJusticeRepresentative
1st26.9%70.0%Carol Miller
2nd28.6%67.6%Alex Mooney (118th Congress)
Riley Moore (119th Congress)

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Republicans held both of West Virginia's Senate seats in 1958 when RepublicanJohn Hoblitzell was appointed to continue the term of DemocratMatthew M. Neely before losing his bid to finish Neely's term in aspecial election the same year.
  2. ^abcdefgKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^Zane Lawhorn with 3%; Bryan Bird, Bryan McKinney, and Janet McNulty with 2%; Don Lindsay with 1%
  4. ^Bryan McKinney with 2%; Zane Lawhorn with 1%
  5. ^Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters
  6. ^"Someone else" with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. ^abcPoll sponsored byWest Virginia MetroNews and The Health Plan
  2. ^Poll sponsored by Mooney's campaign
  3. ^Poll sponsored byWOWK-TV
  4. ^abcdPoll sponsored byWMOV
  5. ^Poll sponsored by Justice's campaign
  6. ^Poll sponsored by the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce
  7. ^abcdePoll sponsored by theSenate Leadership Fund, which supports Republican candidates
  8. ^Poll sponsored byWest Virginia MetroNews

References

[edit]
  1. ^abcWeaver, Al (November 9, 2023)."Manchin won't seek reelection in West Virginia".The Hill.Archived from the original on November 9, 2023. RetrievedNovember 9, 2023.
  2. ^Fortinsky, Kathryn (May 31, 2024)."Sen. Joe Manchin leaves Democratic Party, registers as an independent".CBS News. RetrievedMay 31, 2024.
  3. ^Taylor, Jessica (November 9, 2023)."With Manchin Retirement, Democratic-Held Seat Moves to Solid Republican".The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. RetrievedJune 5, 2025.
  4. ^ab"Senate Ratings".Inside Elections. January 6, 2023.Archived from the original on January 20, 2021. RetrievedJanuary 10, 2023.
  5. ^ab"2024 Senate prediction map".elections2024.thehill.com/.The Hill. June 8, 2024. RetrievedJune 8, 2024.
  6. ^ab"2024 Senate".Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023.Archived from the original on January 26, 2023. RetrievedFebruary 13, 2023.
  7. ^abcCunningham, Eric (May 4, 2023)."Jim Justice's Announcement Moves West Virginia's Senate Race to Safe Republican".Elections Daily.Archived from the original on May 21, 2023. RetrievedMay 4, 2023.
  8. ^Edmondson, Catie (October 8, 2018)."Joe Manchin's Yes on Kavanaugh Finds Sympathy in West Virginia (Published 2018)".The New York Times.ISSN 0362-4331.Archived from the original on June 16, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 10, 2021.
  9. ^Everett, Burgess (August 2, 2022)."GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin's Dems-only deal".POLITICO.Archived from the original on August 6, 2022. RetrievedOctober 10, 2022.
  10. ^ab"West Virginia Congressman Alex Mooney says he will run for Manchin's Senate seat".WOWK 13 News. November 15, 2022.Archived from the original on November 15, 2022. RetrievedNovember 15, 2022.
  11. ^abStaff, WDTV News (April 27, 2023)."Gov. Justice announces run for U.S. Senate".www.wdtv.com.Archived from the original on April 27, 2023. RetrievedApril 27, 2023.
  12. ^Kondik, Kyle (January 24, 2023)."Initial Senate Ratings: Democrats Have a Lot of Defending to Do – Sabato's Crystal Ball".Archived from the original on January 30, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 25, 2023.
  13. ^Raju, Manu (March 14, 2024)."Schumer discusses 'long-shot scenario' with Manchin: Last-ditch Senate run in West Virginia".CNN.Archived from the original on March 14, 2024. RetrievedMarch 23, 2024.
  14. ^Adams, Steven (January 16, 2024)."Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, a Democrat, files for U.S. Senate run".The Intelligencer and Wheeling News-Register. RetrievedJanuary 16, 2024.
  15. ^Young, Charles (January 26, 2024)."Don Blankenship files to run for US Senate — as a Democrat".WV News. RetrievedJanuary 26, 2024.
  16. ^Kaufman, Dan (May 9, 2024)."The Progressive Running to End the Dominance of Coal in West Virginia".The New Yorker.ISSN 0028-792X. RetrievedMay 10, 2024.
  17. ^abcWillingham, Leah (April 22, 2024)."In race for his Senate seat, Joe Manchin endorses West Virginia Democratic Mayor Glenn Elliott".The Associated Press. RetrievedApril 22, 2024.
  18. ^Taylor, Isaac (May 9, 2024)."Group of West Virginia mayors endorse Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott for US Senate".WTRF-TV. RetrievedMay 9, 2024.
  19. ^"2024 Primary COPE Election Endorsements".West Virginia AFL-CIO. RetrievedMay 9, 2024.
  20. ^"West Virginia".UAW Endorsements. RetrievedMay 9, 2024.
  21. ^"2024 West Virginia | CWA Endorsed Candidates | Communications Workers of America".cwa-union.org. RetrievedMay 9, 2024.
  22. ^abcBeard, David (November 30, 2023)."Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Zach Shrewsbury holds campaign kickoff rally in Morgantown".The Dominion Post.
  23. ^abKlein, Howie (October 22, 2023)."Can A Real Democrat Defeat Joe Manchin AND Jim Justice?".Blue America.Archived from the original on October 22, 2023. RetrievedOctober 22, 2023.
  24. ^"Meet Our 2022 Candidates".Peace Action. RetrievedMarch 25, 2024.
  25. ^"ENDORSEMENTS - Progressive Democrats of America". February 22, 2021. RetrievedMarch 12, 2024.
  26. ^abc"2024 Election United States Senate - West Virginia".fec.gov.Federal Election Commission.Archived from the original on August 11, 2023. RetrievedAugust 11, 2023.
  27. ^ab"West Virginia U.S. Senate Primary Election Results".The York Times. RetrievedMarch 13, 2025.
  28. ^abcd"WV SOS - Elections - Candidate - Online Data Services".apps.sos.wv.gov. RetrievedJanuary 10, 2024.
  29. ^abAdams, Steven (November 10, 2023)."Reaction Pours In to Manchin's Impending Senate Retirement".The Intelligencer and Wheeling News-Register. RetrievedNovember 27, 2023.
  30. ^"GOP candidates, voters rally in Weirton".Wierton Daily Times. October 17, 2022.Archived from the original on October 17, 2022. RetrievedNovember 16, 2022.
  31. ^Everett, Burgess; Beavers, Olivia (December 5, 2022)."Red-state rodeos to set GOP's 2024 Senate chances".Politico.Archived from the original on December 5, 2022. RetrievedDecember 5, 2022.West Virginia's other House Republican, Rep. Carol Miller, said she has no plans to run for the Senate.
  32. ^Frisk, Garrett (July 21, 2023)."We Asked Every Member of the House if They're Running in 2024. Here's What They Said".Diamond Eye Candidate Report.Archived from the original on July 21, 2023. RetrievedJuly 21, 2023.
  33. ^Sivak, David (April 4, 2023)."Patrick Morrisey won't challenge Manchin, announces run for West Virginia governor".Washington Examiner. RetrievedMay 26, 2024.
  34. ^Huynh, Anjali (October 18, 2023)."Trump Endorses Gov. Jim Justice in West Virginia Senate Race".The New York Times.Archived from the original on October 19, 2023. RetrievedOctober 19, 2023.
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  36. ^ab"Republican Gov. Jim Justice jumps into West Virginia 2024 Senate race. What did Mitt Romney say?".Deseret News. April 28, 2023.Archived from the original on May 9, 2023. RetrievedMay 7, 2023.
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