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| Turnout | 65.3% | ||||||||||||||||
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 County results Congressional district results Precinct resultsHeinrich: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Domenici: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in New Mexico |
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The2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent the state ofNew Mexico.Democratic incumbentMartin Heinrich won re-election to a third term, defeatingRepublican financier Nella Domenici.[1] Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024, with both Heinrich and Domenici winning their respective party's nomination unopposed.[2] Republicans have not won a Senate race in New Mexico since Domenici's late fatherPete did so in2002.
Heinrich was first elected in2012 by a 5.7-point margin, succeeding longtime Democratic incumbentJeff Bingaman. In2018, Heinrich was reelected to his second term by an overwhelming 23.6-point margin, but this was largely due to the presence of third-party candidate and formergovernor of the stateGary Johnson, who ran as aLibertarian and garnered over 15% of the vote. Come Election Day in 2024, Heinrich was reelected to a third term in office by 10.12%, receiving 55.1% of the statewide vote to Domenici's 44.9%. While an underperformance of his 2018 margin, his margin of victory was an overperformance ofKamala Harris' 6-point victory in the state in theconcurrent presidential election.
Heinrich also held his own quite well at a county-by-county level, particularly when compared to the performances of Kamala Harris. For example, Heinrich carried the counties ofGuadalupe andCibola by 21.7% and 13.2%, respectively, which Harris carried in the concurrent presidential election by meager margins of 0.72% and 1.6%, respectively. Heinrich also carriedSocorro County by around 4.8%, which was carried byDonald Trump in the presidential race by around 4%.
| Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Martin Heinrich (D) | $9,067,125 | $5,341,198 | $4,380,901 |
| Source:Federal Election Commission[3] | |||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Martin Heinrich (incumbent) | 122,961 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 122,961 | 100.0% | ||
| Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Nella Domenici (R) | $1,525,766 | $464,576 | $1,061,190 |
| Source:Federal Election Commission[3] | |||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Nella Domenici | 79,809 | 100.0% | |
| Total votes | 79,809 | 100.0% | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[11] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[12] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[14] | Likely D | October 30, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[15] | Safe D | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[16] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
| RealClearPolitics[17] | Lean D | August 5, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[18] | Likely D | October 30, 2024 |
| 538[19] | Solid D | October 23, 2024 |
Labor unions
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Martin Heinrich (D) | $12,502,263 | $10,330,618 | $2,826,618 |
| Nella Domenici (R) | $4,777,524[a] | $4,377,754 | $399,769 |
| Source:Federal Election Commission[3] | |||
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Martin Heinrich (D) | Nella Domenici (R) | Undecided [b] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight[33] | through November 3, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.4% | 38.9% | 12.7% | Heinrich +9.5 |
| RCP[34] | June 13 – October 26, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.7% | 39.3% | 12.0% | Heinrich +9.4 |
| 270ToWin[35] | October 22 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 50.5% | 44.5% | 5.0% | Heinrich +6.0% |
| TheHill/DDHQ[36] | through November 3, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 50.8% | 43.1% | 6.1% | Heinrich +7.7% |
| Average | 49.6% | 41.5% | 8.9% | Heinrich +8.1% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[c] | Margin of error | Martin Heinrich (D) | Nella Domenici (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Insights (R)[37] | November 1–3, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 50% | 48% | – | 1% |
| Research & Polling Inc.[38][A] | October 10–18, 2024 | 1,024 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 40% | 1%[d] | 7% |
| SurveyUSA[39][B] | September 12–18, 2024 | 619 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 47% | 34% | – | 19% |
| Research & Polling Inc.[40][A] | September 6–13, 2024 | 532 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 50% | 38% | 4%[e] | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[41][C] | September 6–9, 2024 | 521 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 37% | 6%[f] | 11% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[42][C] | August 25–28, 2024 | 488 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 33% | 4%[g] | 19% |
| Emerson College[43][D] | August 20–22, 2024 | 965 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 37% | 4%[h] | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[44][C] | August 12–15, 2024 | 453 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 36% | 7%[i] | 15% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[45][C] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 493 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 40% | 34% | 4%[j] | 21% |
| 1892 Polling (R)[46][E] | June 19–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | – | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[47][F] | June 13–14, 2024 | 555 (V) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 40% | – | 13% |
| Red Oak Strategies (R)[48][E] | May 7–19, 2024 | 1,800 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 41% | 38% | – | 21% |
| 1892 Polling (R)[46][E] | March 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 36% | – | – |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Martin Heinrich (incumbent) | 497,333 | 55.06% | +0.97% | |
| Republican | Nella Domenici | 405,978 | 44.94% | +14.41% | |
| Total votes | 903,311 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratichold | |||||
| County[50] | Martin Heinrich Democratic | Nella Domenici Republican | Margin | Total votes cast | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Bernalillo | 187,163 | 61.42% | 117,575 | 38.58% | 69,588 | 22.84% | 304,738 |
| Catron | 615 | 26.84% | 1,676 | 73.16% | -1,061 | -46.31% | 2,291 |
| Chaves | 6,723 | 31.10% | 14,891 | 68.90% | -8,168 | -37.79% | 21,614 |
| Cibola | 4,955 | 56.59% | 3,801 | 43.41% | 1,154 | 13.18% | 8,756 |
| Colfax | 2,706 | 47.17% | 3,031 | 52.83% | -325 | -5.66% | 5,737 |
| Curry | 4,532 | 30.81% | 10,176 | 69.19% | -5,644 | -38.37% | 14,708 |
| De Baca | 268 | 31.42% | 585 | 68.58% | -317 | -37.16% | 853 |
| Doña Ana | 46,715 | 56.24% | 36,355 | 43.76% | 10,360 | 12.47% | 83,070 |
| Eddy | 5,979 | 26.28% | 16,775 | 73.72% | -10,796 | -47.45% | 22,754 |
| Grant | 7,800 | 55.98% | 6,133 | 44.02% | 1,667 | 11.96% | 13,933 |
| Guadalupe | 1,143 | 60.86% | 735 | 39.14% | 408 | 21.73% | 1,878 |
| Harding | 138 | 32.86% | 282 | 67.14% | -144 | -34.29% | 420 |
| Hidalgo | 785 | 44.48% | 980 | 55.52% | -195 | -11.05% | 1,765 |
| Lea | 4,563 | 22.35% | 15,852 | 77.65% | -11,289 | -55.30% | 20,415 |
| Lincoln | 3,270 | 32.78% | 6,706 | 67.22% | -3,436 | -34.44% | 9,976 |
| Los Alamos | 7,761 | 64.00% | 4,365 | 36.00% | 3,396 | 28.01% | 12,126 |
| Luna | 3,547 | 45.76% | 4,205 | 54.24% | -658 | -8.49% | 7,752 |
| McKinley | 17,064 | 67.56% | 8,195 | 32.44% | 8,869 | 35.11% | 25,259 |
| Mora | 1,532 | 63.89% | 866 | 36.11% | 666 | 27.77% | 2,398 |
| Otero | 9,229 | 39.48% | 14,147 | 60.52% | -4,918 | -21.04% | 23,376 |
| Quay | 1,174 | 32.79% | 2,406 | 67.21% | -1,232 | -34.41% | 3,580 |
| Rio Arriba | 10,035 | 64.50% | 5,524 | 35.50% | 4,511 | 28.99% | 15,559 |
| Roosevelt | 1,951 | 29.97% | 4,559 | 70.03% | -2,608 | -40.06% | 6,510 |
| San Juan | 19,078 | 37.05% | 32,417 | 62.95% | -13,339 | -25.90% | 51,495 |
| San Miguel | 7,447 | 68.48% | 3,427 | 31.52% | 4,020 | 36.97% | 10,874 |
| Sandoval | 42,473 | 54.15% | 35,959 | 45.85% | 6,514 | 8.31% | 78,432 |
| Santa Fe | 62,312 | 75.53% | 20,183 | 24.47% | 42,129 | 51.07% | 82,495 |
| Sierra | 2,553 | 43.85% | 3,269 | 56.15% | -716 | -12.30% | 5,822 |
| Socorro | 3,704 | 52.40% | 3,365 | 47.60% | 339 | 4.80% | 7,069 |
| Taos | 12,457 | 76.40% | 3,849 | 23.60% | 8,608 | 52.79% | 16,306 |
| Torrance | 2,454 | 34.78% | 4,601 | 65.22% | -2,147 | -30.43% | 7,055 |
| Union | 397 | 24.39% | 1,231 | 75.61% | -834 | -51.23% | 1,628 |
| Valencia | 14,810 | 45.34% | 17,857 | 54.66% | -3,047 | -9.33% | 32,667 |
| Totals | 497,333 | 55.06% | 405,978 | 44.94% | 91,355 | 10.11% | 903,311 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Heinrich won all three congressional districts.[51]
| District | Heinrich | Domenici | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 57.1% | 42.9% | Melanie Stansbury |
| 2nd | 52.0% | 48.0% | Gabe Vasquez |
| 3rd | 55.4% | 44.6% | Teresa Leger Fernandez |
Partisan clients
Official campaign websites
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