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2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2024 United States House of Representatives elections.
Not to be confused with2024 Alaska House of Representatives election.

2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska's at-large district
← 2022November 5, 20242026 →
 
CandidateNick Begich IIIMary Peltola
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
First
round		159,550
48.41%		152,828
46.37%
Maximum
round		164,861
51.22%		156,985
48.78%
First round results by borough and census area
First round results byState House district
First round results by precinct
Final round results by borough and census area
Begich:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Peltola:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%
U.S. Representative before election

Mary Peltola
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Nick Begich III
Republican

Elections in Alaska

The2024 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of theUnited States House of Representatives to represent thestate ofAlaska from itsat-large congressional district. The election coincided with the2024 U.S. presidential election, as well asother elections to the U.S. House,elections to theUnited States Senate, and various otherstate and local elections.

IncumbentMary Peltola, the firstDemocrat to represent Alaska in the House since1972, sought a second full term in office. Peltola had been elected in anAugust 2022 special election to succeed deceasedRepublicanDon Young. Shewon a full term the following November.

In accordance with2020 Alaska Measure 2, the race was conducted using the state'sranked-choice voting procedures. Eleven candidates challenged Peltola in the August all-party primary. RepublicansNick Begich III,Nancy Dahlstrom, and Matthew Salisbury initially qualified for spots in the ranked-choice general election, but Dahlstrom and Salisbury withdrew shortly after the primary in a show of party unity.[1] The final general election ballot thus featured Peltola, Begich,Alaskan Independence Party nominee John Wayne Howe, and DemocratEric Hafner. The Alaska Democratic Party attempted to have Hafner removed from the ballot due to his status as a federal prisoner inNew York, but theAlaska Supreme Court rejected their arguments.[2]

Given Alaska'sconservative lean, Peltola was considered a top target for Republicans throughout the cycle.[3] By late October, multiple outlets regarded Peltola as one of the 10 most vulnerable incumbents running for reelection in the House.[4][5] Despite Peltola's loss, she did outperformKamala Harris in the concurrent2024 presidential election in Alaska by about 10 points, but this was not enough to win.

Begich was declared the winner on November 20, following the tabulation of ranked-choice votes.[6] He was sworn in on January 3, 2025.[7]

Candidates

[edit]

Democratic Party

[edit]

Advanced to general

[edit]

Republican Party

[edit]

Advanced to general

[edit]

Withdrew after advancing to general

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Gerald Heikes, drywall contractor and perennial candidate[13]

No Labels

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Alaskan Independence Party

[edit]

Advanced to general

[edit]

Independents

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • David Ambrose[12]
  • Samuel Claesson, author[15]
  • Lady Donna Dutchess, Vicegerent for Shadow Light Monastery, nun, and candidate for U.S. House in2022[16]
  • Richard Mayers[12]

Primary election

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Nick Begich (R)

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Nancy Dahlstrom (R)

U.S. presidents

Governors

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Mary Peltola (D)

U.S. senators

Labor unions

Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Mary Peltola (D)$7,541,673$5,396,920$2,836,013
Nick Begich (R)$982,905$851,591$172,548
Nancy Dahlstrom (R)$912,308$912,308$317,617
Source:Federal Election Commission[45]

Polling

[edit]

Top four primary

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Nick
Begich (R)		Nancy
Dahlstrom (R)		Mary
Peltola (D)		OtherUndecided
Data for Progress (D)[46]February 23 – March 4, 20241,120 (LV)± 3.0%35%10%44%2%[b]8%
Remington Research (R)[47][A]December 11–14, 2023672 (LV)± 4.0%28%9%42%9%[c]11%

Results

[edit]
Results by state house district:
  Peltola—70–80%
  Peltola—60–70%
  Peltola—50–60%
  Peltola—40–50%
  Peltola—30–40%
  Begich—30–40%
  Begich—40–50%

Peltola performed well in the primary, securing slightly more than 50% of the vote. She received the plurality of the vote in 33 out of 40Alaska House of Representatives districts.[48] Her top three districts were the fourth district inSoutheast Alaska (79.5% of the vote) as well as the 17th and the 19th districts located inAnchorage (75.3% and 71.0% of the vote respectively).

Blanket primary results[49]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticMary Peltola (incumbent)55,16650.89%
RepublicanNick Begich III28,80326.57%
RepublicanNancy Dahlstrom(withdrew)21,57419.90%
RepublicanMatthew Salisbury(withdrew)6520.60%
IndependenceJohn Wayne Howe6210.57%
DemocraticEric Hafner4670.43%
RepublicanGerald Heikes4240.39%
IndependentLady Donna Dutchess1950.18%
IndependentDavid Ambrose1540.14%
No LabelsRichard Grayson1430.13%
IndependentRichard Mayers1190.11%
IndependentSamuel Claesson890.08%
Total votes108,407100.00%

General election

[edit]

On August 23,Nancy Dahlstrom withdrew from the general election.[11] Despite initially stating he had no plans to withdraw, Matthew Salisbury also dropped out of the race.[50][51] They were replaced by fifth-place finisher John Wayne Howe of theAlaskan Independence Party and sixth-place finisherEric Hafner, a Democrat.[51] Hafner remained on the ballot even though he has never been to Alaska, and was serving a 20-year sentence in a federal penitentiary in New York.[52] TheAlaska Democratic Party sued to remove Hafner from the general election ballot, but anAnchorage Superior Court judge dismissed the lawsuit. The party appealed to theAlaska Supreme Court, who upheld the lower court's decision, keeping Hafner on the ballot.[2]

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Mary Peltola (D)

Statewide officials

Organizations

Nick Begich (R)

U.S. presidents

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Governors

Organizations

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[68]TossupSeptember 6, 2024
Inside Elections[69]Tilt R(flip)October 31, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[70]Lean R(flip)November 4, 2024
Elections Daily[71]Lean R(flip)November 4, 2024
CNalysis[72]Tilt DNovember 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ[73]TossupOctober 22, 2024

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Mary
Peltola (D)		Nick
Begich (R)		OtherUndecided
American Viewpoint (R)[74][B]September 14–17, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%40%44%6%[e]10%
Cygnal (R)[75][C]August 30 – September 1, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%46%45%–9%
American Viewpoint (R)[74][B]Late August 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%45%39%–16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		RCV
round		Mary
Peltola (D)		Nick
Begich (R)		John
Wayne Howe (AIP)		Eric
Hafner (D)
Cygnal (R)[76][C]October 14–16, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%
144.5%49.1%4.0%2.4%
245.5%49.6%4.8%Elim
347.9%52.1%ElimElim
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		RCV
round		Mary
Peltola (D)		Nick
Begich (R)		Nancy
Dahlstrom (R)		Chris
Bye (L)
Data for Progress (D)[77]February 23 – March 2, 20241,120 (LV)± 3.0%
147%39%12%3%
248%41%12%Elim
350%50%ElimElim

Debates and forums

[edit]
2024 Alaska U.S. House of Representatives debates and forums
No.DateHostModeratorLinkDemocraticRepublicanIndependenceDemocratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W  Withdrawn
PeltolaBegichHoweHafner
1[78]Aug. 28, 2024Alaska Oil and Gas AssociationMichelle EganYouTubePPNN
2[79]Oct. 8, 2024Kodiak Chamber of Commerce
KMXT (FM)		Terry HainesYouTubePPPN
3[80]Oct. 10, 2024Alaska Chamber of CommercePPNN
4Oct. 10, 2024Alaska Public Media
KTUU-TV		Rebecca Palsha
Lori Townsend		YouTubePPNN

Results

[edit]
2024 Alaska's at-large congressional district election[81][82]
PartyCandidateFirst choiceRound 1Round 2Round 3
Votes%Votes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%
RepublicanNick Begich III159,55048.41%159,77748.49%+267160,04448.77%+4,817164,86151.22%
DemocraticMary Peltola (incumbent)152,82846.37%152,94846.42%+1,313154,26147.01%+2,724156,98548.78%
IndependenceJohn Wayne Howe13,0103.95%13,2104.01%+66113,8714.23%-13,871Eliminated
DemocraticEric Hafner3,4171.04%3,5581.08%-3,558Eliminated
Write-in7500.23%Eliminated
Total votes329,555329,493328,176321,846
Inactive ballots[f]6,360+1,3177,677+6,33014,007
Republicangain fromDemocratic

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^Chris Bye (L) with 2%
  3. ^Chris Bye (L) with 7%; Richard Grayson (NL) with 2%
  4. ^Numbered as the 4th from 2013–2019
  5. ^"Someone else" with 6%
  6. ^Includesovervotes,undervotes, and exhausted ballots where another candidate was not ranked.

Partisan clients

  1. ^Poll sponsored by Begich's campaign
  2. ^abPoll sponsored by theNRCC
  3. ^abPoll sponsored by Begich's campaign and theNRCC

References

[edit]
  1. ^Acuña Buxton, Matt (September 4, 2024)."A dozen candidates have dropped out of Alaska's general election".The Alaska Current. RetrievedNovember 26, 2024.
  2. ^abBrooks, James (September 13, 2024)."Alaska Supreme Court rejects Democrats' attempt to remove candidate from U.S. House ballot".Alaska Public Media. RetrievedSeptember 16, 2024.
  3. ^Ruskin, Liz (August 3, 2023)."Peltola is a GOP target. She's stepped up her campaign fundraising".Alaska Public Media. RetrievedNovember 26, 2024.
  4. ^Klein, Matthew (October 30, 2024)."Hot to Go: The 10 Most Vulnerable House Incumbents of 2024".The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. RetrievedNovember 26, 2024.
  5. ^Altimari, Daniela; McIntire, Mary Ellen (October 29, 2024)."Tight House races make for crowded Most Vulnerable Incumbent list".Roll Call. RetrievedNovember 26, 2024.
  6. ^Bohrer, Becky (November 20, 2024)."Trump-backed Republican Nick Begich beats Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola for Alaska's only House seat".Associated Press. RetrievedNovember 26, 2024.
  7. ^"Nick Begich III is sworn in as Alaska's representative in the U.S. House".Alaska Public Media. January 4, 2025. RetrievedJune 19, 2025.
  8. ^Fortinsky, Sarah (November 14, 2023)."Alaska's GOP lieutenant governor joins race against Dem Rep. Mary Peltola".The Hill. RetrievedNovember 25, 2023.Peltola officially launched her 2024 reelection bid the following month.
  9. ^Brooks, James (September 4, 2024)."Alaska Democrats sue to remove imprisoned out-of-state Democrat from U.S. House ballot".Alaska Beacon. RetrievedSeptember 5, 2024.
  10. ^Bazail-Eimil, Eric (July 13, 2023)."Nick Begich challenging Peltola for House seat in Alaska".POLITICO. RetrievedJuly 13, 2023.
  11. ^abMaguire, Sean (August 23, 2024)."Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom drops out of U.S. House race".Anchorage Daily News. RetrievedAugust 23, 2023.
  12. ^abcd"2024 PRIMARY ELECTION - Candidates". Alaska Secretary of State. Archived fromthe original on August 2, 2022. RetrievedDecember 23, 2023.
  13. ^"2024 PRIMARY ELECTION - Candidates". Alaska Secretary of State. Archived fromthe original on August 2, 2022. RetrievedDecember 23, 2023.
  14. ^Winger, Richard (September 28, 2023)."Alaska U.S. House Candidate for 2024 with 'No Labels' Qualifies for August 2024 Primary Ballot".Ballot Access News. RetrievedOctober 6, 2023.
  15. ^Samuels, Iris (June 2, 2024)."Alaska's candidate lists for legislative and congressional races are set after Saturday's deadline".Alaska Daily News. RetrievedSeptember 12, 2024.
  16. ^Jarrett, Kim (November 14, 2023)."Alaska's lieutenant governor announces bid for Congress". The Center Square. RetrievedNovember 14, 2023.
  17. ^Downing, Suzanne (May 16, 2024)."Utah Senator Mike Lee endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. RetrievedAugust 23, 2024.
  18. ^Downing, Suzanne (January 29, 2024)."Congressional candidate Nick Begich picks up big endorsement: Congressman Byron Donalds".Must Read Alaska. RetrievedJanuary 30, 2024.
  19. ^Downing, Suzanne (February 15, 2024)."Vivek Ramaswamy endorses Nick Begich for Congress".Must Read Alaska. RetrievedFebruary 15, 2024.
  20. ^abDowning, Suzanne (August 4, 2023)."Nick Begich starts stacking up endorsements for Congress '24".Must Read Alaska. RetrievedOctober 1, 2023.
  21. ^"Big Win and Nine New Endorsements".House Freedom Fund. May 8, 2024. RetrievedMay 8, 2024.
  22. ^"Trump endorses Dahlstrom for Congress". June 17, 2024.
  23. ^"Governor Mike Dunleavy Endorses Lt. Governor Nancy Dahlstrom for Congress".Alaska Native News. February 5, 2024. RetrievedFebruary 5, 2024.
  24. ^abSamuels, Iris (February 8, 2024)."Dahlstrom ahead of Begich but far behind Peltola in fundraising for U.S. House campaign".Anchorage Daily News. RetrievedFebruary 15, 2024.Dahlstrom has already garnered endorsements from House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik
  25. ^Schilke, Rachel (April 3, 2024)."Johnson-linked PAC releases first slate of 'trailblazer' House endorsements - Washington Examiner". RetrievedApril 3, 2024.
  26. ^Brooks, Emily (July 29, 2024)."House GOP campaign arm releases slate of 26 'Young Gun' competitive candidates".The Hill. RetrievedJuly 29, 2024.
  27. ^Downing, Suzanne (March 30, 2024)."Murkowski won't endorse Bronson for mayor, but endorses mail-in elections in Anchorage".Must Read Alaska. RetrievedMarch 31, 2024.
  28. ^"ASEA/AFSCME Local 52 - PAC 2024 Primary Election Endorsements".www.afscmelocal52.org. RetrievedSeptember 12, 2024.
  29. ^Staff report (June 23, 2024)."Peltola picks up major endorsement from labor union".Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. RetrievedJune 24, 2024.
  30. ^"AFA Endorsed Candidates for 2024 Election".Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. RetrievedJune 3, 2024.
  31. ^959JkrinerAdmin (August 14, 2024)."Congresswoman Mary Peltola for U.S. Congress - Alaska Teamsters Union". RetrievedSeptember 12, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  32. ^"Our Recommended Candidates".Education Votes. RetrievedFebruary 14, 2024.
  33. ^"- AIPAC Political Portal".candidates.aipacpac.org. RetrievedMay 13, 2024.
  34. ^"DMFI PAC Announces First Round of 2024 Endorsements for U.S. House".DMFI PAC. December 18, 2023. Archived fromthe original on December 18, 2023. RetrievedDecember 18, 2023.
  35. ^Ackley, Kate (March 15, 2023)."EMILY's List: These 18 Democrats are crucial to taking House control".Roll Call. RetrievedOctober 1, 2023.
  36. ^"2024 – Feminist Majority PAC".feministmajoritypac.org. RetrievedFebruary 9, 2024.
  37. ^"JDCA ANNOUNCES KEY 2024 ENDORSEMENTS".Jewish Democratic Council of America. Archived fromthe original on November 6, 2023. RetrievedNovember 6, 2023.
  38. ^"Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs".jacpac.org. Archived fromthe original on September 1, 2023. RetrievedSeptember 1, 2023.
  39. ^"Koniag Board of Directors Endorses Mary Peltola for U.S. Congress".Alaska Native News. March 16, 2024. RetrievedMarch 17, 2024.
  40. ^Communications (June 21, 2023)."NARAL Pro-Choice America Launches 2024 Electoral Program with Endorsement of Frontline Incumbents for U.S. House of Representatives".NARAL Pro-Choice America. Archived fromthe original on June 21, 2023. RetrievedJune 21, 2023.
  41. ^"Endorsed Candidates".National Women's Political Caucus. RetrievedJanuary 26, 2024.
  42. ^Irwin, Lauren (August 1, 2024)."NRA issues rare endorsement of Democrat in backing Peltola".The Hill. RetrievedAugust 1, 2024.
  43. ^"Planned Parenthood Action Fund Announces New Endorsement Slate for House in 2024".www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. RetrievedOctober 10, 2023.
  44. ^"Make a high-impact donation—without all the usual drama".Swing Left.
  45. ^"2024 Election United States House - Alaska".fec.gov.Federal Election Commission. RetrievedAugust 16, 2023.
  46. ^Data for Progress (D)
  47. ^Remington Research (R)
  48. ^Waddick, Carrisa (August 21, 2024)."Mary Peltola tops ballot in Alaska House primary, poised for high-stakes November showdown". USA Today. RetrievedSeptember 10, 2024.
  49. ^"State of Alaska 2024 PRIMARY ELECTION Election Summary Report August 20, 2024 OFFICIAL RESULTS"(PDF).State of Alaska. September 1, 2024. RetrievedSeptember 1, 2024.
  50. ^Brooks, James (August 23, 2024)."Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom quits U.S. House race after finishing behind Peltola and Begich in the primary".Alaska Beacon.
  51. ^abBengel, Alex (September 3, 2024)."Alaska candidates withdraw from November ballot, shuffling voter options".KTVF.
  52. ^Darrell, Jack (September 3, 2024)."Eric Hafner advances to the AK US House ballot from federal prison".KRBD.
  53. ^"Fight Like Hell PAC".Fight Like Hell PAC. RetrievedSeptember 30, 2024.
  54. ^Rickert, Levi (October 21, 2024)."Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski Endorses Reelection of Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola".Alaska Beacon. RetrievedOctober 27, 2024.
  55. ^Kitchenman, Andrew (October 19, 2024)."Alaska Federation of Natives endorses Peltola, opposes ranked choice repeal".Alaska Beacon. RetrievedOctober 27, 2024.
  56. ^Irwin, Lauren (August 1, 2024)."NRA issues rare endorsement of Democrat in backing Peltola".The Hill. RetrievedOctober 27, 2024.
  57. ^Downing, Suzanne (September 18, 2024)."Breaking: Donald Trump endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. RetrievedSeptember 19, 2024.
  58. ^Downing, Suzanne (September 17, 2024)."Breaking: Sen. Dan Sullivan endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. RetrievedSeptember 19, 2024.
  59. ^abcdeDowning, Suzanne (August 23, 2024)."Big endorsements for Nick Begich roll in: Five U.S. House Majority leaders and AK-GOP Chairwoman Carmela Warfield are 'all in'". Must Read Alaska. RetrievedAugust 25, 2024.
  60. ^Downing, Suzanne (August 29, 2024)."Big endorsement rolls in from Rep. Jim Jordan for Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. RetrievedAugust 30, 2024.
  61. ^Downing, Suzanne (August 28, 2024)."In the hunt for Alaska victory, Begich gets key House Natural Resources chairman's endorsement". Must Read Alaska. RetrievedAugust 30, 2024.
  62. ^Downing, Suzanne (September 3, 2024)."Gov. Dunleavy endorses Nick Begich for Congress". Must Read Alaska. RetrievedSeptember 15, 2024.
  63. ^Downing, Suzanne (September 14, 2024)."Unanimous: Nick Begich gets endorsement of Alaska Republican Party". Must Read Alaska. RetrievedSeptember 15, 2024.
  64. ^"AFP Action Endorses Nick Begich for Congress".Americans for Prosperity Action. September 10, 2024. RetrievedSeptember 15, 2024.
  65. ^Mitola, Will (September 4, 2024)."Club for Growth PAC Endorses Nick Begich In AK-AL".Club for Growth PAC. RetrievedSeptember 15, 2024.
  66. ^Downing, Suzanne (October 7, 2024)."Go big: Nick Begich endorsed by Gun Owners of America". Must Read Alaska. RetrievedOctober 8, 2024.
  67. ^"NFIB's FedPAC announced endorsement for Nick Begich".National Federation of Independent Business. October 24, 2024. RetrievedOctober 27, 2024.
  68. ^"2024 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. RetrievedFebruary 2, 2023.
  69. ^"First 2024 House Ratings".Inside Elections. RetrievedMarch 10, 2023.
  70. ^Kondik, Kyle (September 19, 2024)."Five House Rating Changes as Overall Battle for Majority Remains Tight".University of Virginia Center for Politics.Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedSeptember 19, 2024.
  71. ^"Election Ratings".Elections Daily. August 26, 2024. RetrievedAugust 26, 2024.
  72. ^"2024 House Forecast". October 24, 2024. RetrievedNovember 20, 2023.
  73. ^"2024 House Forecast". May 28, 2024. RetrievedJune 1, 2024.
  74. ^abAmerican Viewpoint (R)
  75. ^Cygnal (R)
  76. ^Cygnal (R)
  77. ^Data for Progress (D)
  78. ^Kitchenman, Andrew (August 28, 2024)."U.S. House candidates seek Alaska oil and gas industry support in forum". Alaska Beacon. RetrievedOctober 9, 2024.
  79. ^Brooks, James (October 9, 2024)."At U.S. House debate in Kodiak, candidates differ on future of Alaska fisheries".Alaska Beacon. RetrievedOctober 10, 2024.
  80. ^Brooks, James (October 10, 2024)."In Fairbanks, Begich and Peltola offer sharply different views of federal spending in Alaska".Alaska Beacon. RetrievedOctober 12, 2024.
  81. ^"State of Alaska 2024 GENERAL ELECTION Election Summary Report November 5, 2024 OFFICIAL RESULTS"(PDF).Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2024. RetrievedNovember 30, 2024.
  82. ^"US House RCV Detailed Report"(PDF).Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2024. RetrievedNovember 30, 2024.

External links

[edit]

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