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2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2024 United States gubernatorial elections.

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
← 2020
November 5, 2024
2028 →
Turnout73.73% (Decrease1.62pp)
 
NomineeJosh SteinMark Robinson
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Popular vote3,069,4962,241,309
Percentage54.90%40.08%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Stein:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Robinson:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
     No votes
Governor before election

Roy Cooper
Democratic

ElectedGovernor

Josh Stein
Democratic

Elections in North Carolina
U.S./Confederate President
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
State executive
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant Governor elections
Secretary of State elections
State Treasurer elections
Superintendent of Public Instruction elections
Attorney General elections
Commissioner of Insurance elections
Auditor elections
Council of State elections

The2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect thegovernor of North Carolina. It was held concurrently with the2024 presidential election andother elections.Democratic state Attorney GeneralJosh Stein defeatedRepublican Lieutenant GovernorMark Robinson. He succeeded Democratic incumbentRoy Cooper, who was term-limited.

Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024.[1] Stein won the Democratic nomination with 70% of the vote over former state Supreme Court justiceMichael R. Morgan and Robinson won the Republican nomination with 65% of the vote over state treasurerDale Folwell.

Initially a tight race, Robinson's history of controversial statements and revelations of comments he made on a pornographic website led to Stein gaining a significant polling advantage. Stein went on to win the election by 14.8 percentage points, the largest margin for a gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina sinceJim Hunt in1980, as well as winning counties that had not voted Democratic since2008 (Franklin andJackson),2004 (Alamance,Brunswick, andTransylvania), and1980 (Cabarrus andHenderson). Stein was also the only Democrat in 2024 to win a gubernatorial race in a stateDonald Trump won in theconcurrent presidential race. Robinson became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate since1976 to not flip a county in the state.

Stein received more than three million votes, the most of any candidate in the history of statewide elections in North Carolina. He is the first Jewish governor of the state.[2] Analysts have credited Stein's large margin of victory withhelping down-ballot Democrats inconcurrent elections.[3][4]According to exit polls, Stein won independent voters by a 23% margin.

Background

[edit]

A typicalswing state, North Carolina is considered to be apurple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. BothU.S. senators from the state are members of theRepublican Party. Democrats and Republicans both hold multiple statewide offices in North Carolina. In the2020 presidential election,Donald Trump carried North Carolina by 1.34 percentage points, the smallest margin among the states he won.[5][6]

IncumbentRoy Cooper was first elected in2016, defeating then-incumbent governorPat McCrory by about 0.2 points. Cooper was re-elected in2020 by 4.5 percentage points.[6][7]

TheDemocratic nominee wasJosh Stein, the incumbent state attorney general. TheRepublican nominee wasMark Robinson, the incumbent lieutenant governor.[8]

The 2024 election was initially expected to be competitive due to the state's nearly even to slightly right-leaning partisan lean, the concurrent presidential election, and the seat being open due to term limits. However, Robinson later became embroiled in numerous controversies after becoming the nominee, allowing Stein to open up a large and consistent lead in polls. Stein won 37 counties and Robinson won 63. Of the three gubernatorial races that went blue in 2024, North Carolina went bluest in its overall margin, even though the other two were significantly more Democratic states.[9]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Josh Stein

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Chrelle
Booker		Gary
Foxx		Michael
Morgan		Josh
Stein		Marcus
Williams		OtherUndecided
High Point University[31]February 16–23, 2024322 (LV)± 6.0%10%10%14%57%9%––
Change Research (D)[32][A]February 15–19, 20241,622 (LV)± 2.6%––8%49%–4%[b]39%
East Carolina University[33]February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%2%2%7%57%3%–29%
Meredith College[34]January 26–31, 2024760 (RV)± 3.5%5%3%4%31%2%4%[c]51%
Public Policy Polling (D)[35]December 15–16, 2023556 (LV)± 4.2%3%1%5%56%4%–32%
December 15, 2023Foxx joins the race
December 14, 2023Williams joins the race
November 2, 2023Booker joins the race
Meredith College[36]November 1–5, 2023755 (RV)± 3.5%––11%38%–7%[d]44%
Meredith College[37]September 16–19, 2023308 (RV)± 3.5%––11%33%–10%[e]46%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Mandy
Cohen		Jeff
Jackson		Josh
Stein		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[38][A]October 7–8, 2022606 (RV)± 4.0%18%12%22%9%[f]39%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
Stein
  •   Stein—80–90%
  •   Stein—70–80%
  •   Stein—60–70%
  •   Stein—50–60%
  •   Stein—40–50%
  •   Stein—30–40%
Morgan
  •   Morgan—50–60%
  •   Morgan—40–50%
Democratic primary results[39]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticJosh Stein479,02669.60%
DemocraticMichael R. Morgan98,62714.33%
DemocraticChrelle Booker46,0456.69%
DemocraticMarcus Williams39,2575.70%
DemocraticGary Foxx25,2833.67%
Total votes688,238100.0%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Dale Folwell

Council of State officials

Newspapers

Bill Graham

U.S. senators

Mark Robinson

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State senators

State representatives

Organizations

Newspapers

Debate

[edit]
2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election Republican primary debate
No.DateHostModeratorLinkRepublicanRepublicanRepublican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W  Withdrawn
Dale FolwellMark WalkerJesse Thomas
1September 12, 2023Wake County
Republican Party		Bill LuMayeYouTubePPP

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Dale
Folwell		Bill
Graham		Mark
Robinson		Jesse
Thomas		Mark
Walker		Andy
Wells		OtherUndecided
High Point University[31]February 16–23, 2024394 (LV)± 6.0%17%33%51%9%––––
Capen Analytics (R)[55]February 21, 202412,580 (LV)± 5.0%29%18%53%–––––
Change Research (D)[32][A]February 15–19, 20241,622 (LV)± 2.6%9%9%57%–––3%[g]22%
East Carolina University[33]February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%7%13%53%––––27%
Meredith College[34]January 26–31, 2024760 (RV)± 3.5%4%9%34%–––10%[e]42%
Public Policy Polling (D)[56]January 5–6, 2024619 (LV)± 3.9%7%15%55%––––24%
December 16, 2023Wells withdraws from the race
East Carolina University[57]November 29 – December 1, 2023445 (LV)± 5.4%7%8%34%––3%–49%
November 2, 2023Thomas withdraws from the race
Meredith College[36]November 1–5, 2023755 (RV)± 3.5%3%5%41%2%–1%6%[h]42%
October 25, 2023Walker withdraws from the race
October 18, 2023Graham joins the race
Cygnal (R)[58][B]October 8–9, 2023600 (LV)± 3.9%5%–49%1%4%1%–41%
Meredith College[37]September 16–19, 2023350 (RV)± 3.5%3%–34%3%7%3%6%[h]44%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Dale
Folwell		Pat
McCrory		Mark
Robinson		Thom
Tillis		Steve
Troxler		Mark
Walker		OtherUndecided
Opinion Diagnostics (R)[59]June 5–7, 2023902 (LV)± 3.3%4%–44%––7%7%[d]38%
SurveyUSA[60][B]April 25–29, 2023707 (LV)± 4.4%4%–43%–9%8%–37%
Differentiators (R)[61]December 12, 2022500 (LV)± 4.0%6%–60%––––34%
–21%60%––––19%
––58%––8%–34%
Public Policy Polling (D)[38][A]October 7–8, 2022606 (RV)± 4.0%4%–54%20%––5%[i]17%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
Robinson
  •   Robinson—80–90%
  •   Robinson—70–80%
  •   Robinson—60–70%
  •   Robinson—50–60%
  •   Robinson—40–50%
Republican primary results[39]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanMark Robinson666,50464.83%
RepublicanDale Folwell196,95519.16%
RepublicanBill Graham164,57216.01%
Total votes1,028,031100.0%

Other candidates

[edit]

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Shannon Bray, cybersecurity professional and nominee for U.S. Senate in2020 and2022[63]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Ross
  •   Ross—100%
  •   Ross—80–90%
  •   Ross—70–80%
  •   Ross—60–70%
  •   Ross—50–60%
  Bray
  •   Bray—100%
  •   Bray—70–80%
  •   Bray—60–70%
  •   Bray—50–60%
  Tie
  •   Tie—50%
Libertarian primary results[39]
PartyCandidateVotes%
LibertarianMike Ross2,91059.45%
LibertarianShannon Bray1,98540.55%
Total votes4,895100.0%

Green Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Constitution Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Stein and Robinson faced each other in the general election. With the backing of former PresidentDonald Trump, Robinson received heavy criticism from Democrats over statements on abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, and education. Robinson had also made a series of controversial statements before and after taking public office, including engaging inHolocaust denial.[65] Robinson also received criticism from some Republicans considered to be moderate, including SenatorThom Tillis and primary opponentDale Folwell, both of whom declined to endorse Robinson.[66] On September 17, Stein refused any potential debates with Robinson following a challenge from him.[67]

Calls for Robinson to drop out

[edit]

On September 19,CNN released a story detailingracist,antisemitic,misogynistic, and other "disturbing comments" made by an account suspected to be Robinson on apornography website between 2008 and 2012.[68][69] Hours later, CNN specified multiple comments made on pornography website message boards, including Robinson calling himself a "black NAZI" and expressing support for reinstatingslavery.[70] TheCarolina Journal had reported that earlier in the week theTrump–Vance campaign privately told Robinson that he was not welcome at rallies forDonald Trump orJD Vance.[71] This occurred on the same day as the filing deadline for North Carolina's2024 election ballots. Before the story was released, Robinson released a video dismissing the report as "tabloid lies" and saying that he would not drop out of the race.[72] His campaign canceled events inHenderson andNorlina planned for the same day. Republicanstate senate nominee Scott Lassiter was the first on the ballot with Robinson to call for him to "step aside".[69] Republican North Carolina senatorTed Budd said, "the allegations are concerning but we don't have any facts".[73] That afternoon,Politico reported that an email address belonging to Robinson was registered onAshley Madison, a website designed for people seeking affairs while married.[74] The deadline for Robinson to withdraw from the race or be removed from the ballot passed on the morning of September 20.[75]

Following CNN's September report, most forecasters moved the race to 'Likely Democratic', whileElections Daily moved the race to Safe Democratic.[76][9][77][78]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[77]Likely DSeptember 20, 2024
Inside Elections[79]Likely DSeptember 26, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[80]Likely DSeptember 19, 2024
RCP[81]Likely DSeptember 28, 2024
Fox News[82]Likely DSeptember 25, 2024
Elections Daily[83]Safe DSeptember 19, 2024
CNalysis[78]Solid DOctober 15, 2024
Split Ticket[84]Safe DOctober 19, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Josh Stein (D)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State senators

State representatives

Organizations

Individuals

Mark Robinson (R)

Statewide officials

Organizations

Declined to endorse

Statewide officials

U.S. senators

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Josh Stein (D)$84,064,178$82,450,647$1,901,820
Mark Robinson (R)$20,012,299$19,799,956$250,001
Source:North Carolina State Board of Elections[103]

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Josh
Stein (D)		Mark
Robinson (R)		Undecided
[j]		Margin
RealClearPolitics[104]October 16 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202453.1%38.8%8.1%Stein +14.3%
270ToWin[105]October 24 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202453.1%38.0%8.9%Stein +15.1%
The Hill/DDHQ[106]through November 4, 2024November 4, 202453.4%38.8%7.8%Stein +14.6%
Average53.2%38.5%8.2%Stein +14.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Josh
Stein (D)		Mark
Robinson (R)		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel[107]November 3–4, 20241,219 (LV)± 3.0%54%38%4%[k]4%
AtlasIntel[108]November 1–2, 20241,310 (LV)± 3.0%52%41%4%[k]3%
Emerson College[109][C]October 30 – November 2, 2024860 (LV)± 3.3%52%40%4%4%
New York Times/Siena College[110]October 28 – November 2, 20241,010 (LV)± 3.6%56%38%–5%
1,010 (RV)± 3.6%56%36%–7%
Morning Consult[111]October 23 – November 1, 20241,056 (LV)± 3.0%52%36%–12%
ActiVote[112]October 17–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%58%42%––
AtlasIntel[113]October 27–30, 20241,373 (LV)± 3.0%52%42%4%[k]2%
AtlasIntel[114]October 25–29, 20241,665 (LV)± 3.0%54%39%4%[k]4%
East Carolina University[115]October 24–29, 20241,250 (LV)± 3.0%55%40%5%[l]–
Fox News[116]October 24–28, 2024872 (LV)± 3.0%57%41%–2%
1,113 (RV)± 3.0%59%38%1%2%
CNN/SSRS[117]October 23–28, 2024750 (LV)± 4.5%53%37%10%[m]1%
SurveyUSA[118][D]October 23–26, 2024853 (LV)± 4.1%52%37%1%10%
UMass Lowell/YouGov[119]October 16–23, 2024650 (LV)± 4.2%48%36%3%[n]12%
Emerson College[120]October 21–22, 2024950 (LV)± 3.1%51%39%4%[c]6%
Marist College[121]October 17–22, 20241,226 (LV)± 3.6%55%41%3%[o]2%
1,410 (RV)± 3.3%55%40%3%[o]2%
SoCal Strategies (R)[122][E]October 20–21, 2024702 (LV)± 3.7%55%40%–5%
SurveyUSA[123][F]October 17–20, 20241,164 (RV)± 3.7%50%34%–15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[124][G]October 16–18, 2024843 (LV)± 3.1%45%37%6%[p]10%
AtlasIntel[125]October 12–17, 20241,674 (LV)± 2.0%54%39%3%[q]4%
Elon University/YouGov[126]October 10–17, 2024800 (RV)± 4.0%52%31%7%[r]10%
Morning Consult[111]October 6–15, 20241,072 (LV)± 3.0%54%32%4%10%
Cygnal (R)[127][H]October 12–14, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%49%36%4%[s]11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[128][G]October 12–14, 2024620 (LV)± 3.6%45%38%8%[t]9%
Quinnipiac University[129]October 10–14, 20241,031 (LV)± 3.1%54%42%2%[u]2%
52%40%5%[v]2%
Emerson College[130][I]October 5–8, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%34%5%[i]11%
ActiVote[131]September 5 – October 5, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%56.5%43.5%––
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[132][G]September 27 – October 2, 2024753 (LV)± 3.3%46%36%4%[w]14%
Quinnipiac University[133]September 25–29, 2024953 (LV)± 3.2%53%41%2%[x]4%
52%39%6%[y]3%
The Washington Post[134]September 25–29, 20241,001 (LV)± 3.5%54%38%2%[z]6%
1,001 (RV)± 3.5%53%38%2%[z]7%
High Point University[135]September 20–29, 2024589 (LV)± 4.0%51%34%3%11%
814 (RV)± 3.4%51%32%3%14%
Emerson College[136][J]September 27–28, 2024850 (LV)± 3.3%52%33%4%[c]12%
RMG Research[137][K]September 25–27, 2024780 (LV)± 3.5%53%[aa]38%1%[ab]8%
50%36%5%[ac]9%
East Carolina University[138]September 23–26, 20241,005 (LV)± 3.0%50%33%5%[ad]13%
AtlasIntel[139]September 20–25, 20241,173 (LV)± 3.0%54%38%3%[ae]5%
CNN/SSRS[140]September 20–25, 2024931 (LV)± 3.9%53%36%11%[af]–
BSG (R)/Global Strategy Group (D)[141][L]September 19–25, 2024411 (LV)–53%33%7%[ag]8%
59%35%–6%
Fox News[142]September 20–24, 2024787 (LV)± 3.5%56%41%1%[ah]3%
991 (RV)± 3.0%56%40%2%[ai]3%
Marist College[143]September 19–24, 20241,507 (RV)± 3.5%54%42%1%[aj]3%
1,348 (LV)± 3.7%54%43%1%[aj]2%
September 19, 2024CNN Reports that Mark Robinson made disturbing comments on an online forum years ago.
New York Times/Siena College[144]September 17–21, 2024682 (LV)± 4.2%47%37%–16%
682 (RV)± 4.2%47%36%–17%
Meredith College[145]September 18–20, 2024802 (LV)± 3.5%50%40%5%[ak]9%
Victory Insights (R)[146]September 16–18, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%42%–11%
Emerson College[147][I]September 15–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%40%2%[al]10%
Morning Consult[111]September 11–18, 20241,314 (LV)± 2.7%50%37%1%12%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[148][M]September 11–17, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%52%42%–6%
Cygnal (R)[149][H]September 15–16, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%39%2%[am]13%
Elon University/YouGov[150]September 4–13, 2024800 (RV)± 3.74%49%35%3%9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[151][G]September 6–9, 2024495 (LV)± 3.8%42%33%3%[an]23%
Quinnipiac University[152]September 4–8, 2024940 (LV)± 3.2%51%41%5%[ao]4%
Morning Consult[111]August 30 – September 8, 20241,369 (LV)± 3.0%50%37%2%[al]11%
SurveyUSA[153][D]September 4–7, 2024676 (LV)± 4.9%51%37%–12%
Florida Atlantic University/
Mainstreet Research[154]		September 5–6, 2024692 (RV)± 3.7%48%38%–14%
619 (LV)± 3.7%50%39%–11%
East Carolina University[155]August 26–28, 2024920 (LV)± 3.0%47%41%1%[ap]11%
Emerson College[156][I]August 25–28, 2024775 (LV)± 3.5%47%41%3%[aq]10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[157][G]August 25–28, 2024812 (LV)± 3.18%44%40%4%[ar]13%
SoCal Strategies (R)[158][E]August 26–27, 2024612 (LV)–47%37%–16%
Fox News[159]August 23–26, 20241,026 (RV)± 3.0%54%43%2%[ai]1%
ActiVote[160]July 26 – August 26, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%––
SurveyUSA[161][F]August 19–21, 20241,053 (RV)± 4.0%48%34%–18%
941 (LV)± 4.0%50%36%–14%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[162][G]August 12–15, 2024601 (LV)± 3.7%45%39%3%[as]13%
The New York Times/Siena College[163]August 9–14, 2024655 (RV)± 4.2%48%38%–14%
655 (LV)± 4.2%49%39%–12%
YouGov Blue (D)[164][A]August 5–9, 2024802 (RV)± 3.9%46%36%6%[at]13%
Cygnal (R)[165]August 4–5, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%43%38%4%[au]15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[166]July 31 – August 3, 2024714 (LV)–43%38%3%[av]16%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[167]July 22–24, 2024586 (LV)–38%34%5%[aw]23%
July 21, 2024Joe Bidenwithdraws from the presidential race
Public Policy Polling (D)[168][N]July 19–20, 2024573 (RV)–48%42%–10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[169][G]July 16–18, 2024461 (LV)± 4.0%37%36%4%[ax]23%
Expedition Strategies[170][O]June 24 – July 8, 2024284 (LV)–48%41%–11%
Spry Strategies (R)[171]June 7–11, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%43%–18%
East Carolina University[172]May 31 – June 3, 20241,332 (LV)± 3.1%44%43%–13%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[173][P]May 29 – June 2, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%42%44%–14%
Change Research (D)[174][A]May 13–18, 2024835 (LV)± 3.8%44%43%–13%
High Point University[175]May 2–9, 2024804 (RV)± 3.2%34%39%–27%
1,002 (A)± 3.2%30%35%–35%
Cygnal (R)[176][H]May 4–5, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%39%5%[ay]17%
Emerson College[177]April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%42%5%[i]12%
Meeting Street Insights (R)[178][Q]April 25–28, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%44%37%6%[az]13%
Meredith College[179]April 11–17, 2024711 (LV)± 3.5%45%36%–20%
Cygnal (R)[180][H]April 7–8, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%38%40%–18%
Quinnipiac University[181]April 4–8, 20241,401 (RV)± 2.6%52%44%2%[x]3%
48%41%7%[ba]3%
High Point University[182]March 22–30, 2024829 (RV)± 3.4%37%34%–29%
Marist College[183]March 11–14, 20241,197 (RV)± 3.6%49%47%–4%
SurveyUSA[184][D]March 3–9, 2024598 (LV)± 4.9%44%42%–14%
Cygnal (R)[185][B]March 6–7, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%44%–17%
Change Research (D)[32][A]February 15–19, 20241,622 (LV)± 2.6%42%43%–15%
East Carolina University[33]February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%41%41%–14%
Meredith College[34]January 26–31, 2024760 (RV)± 3.5%39%35%–17%
East Carolina University[57]November 29 – December 1, 2023915 (RV)± 3.8%40%44%–16%
Meredith College[36]November 1–5, 2023755 (RV)± 3.5%38%36%–19%
Change Research (D)[186][A]September 1–5, 2023914 (LV)± 3.6%38%42%–20%
Opinion Diagnostics (R)[59]June 5–7, 2023902 (LV)± 3.3%38%41%–21%
Cygnal (R)[187][B]May 12–23, 2023610 (LV)± 4.0%41%42%–18%
Change Research (D)[188][A]May 5–8, 2023802 (LV)± 3.9%43%46%1%[ab]10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[189][A]March 2–3, 2023704 (RV)± 3.7%42%44%–14%
Differentiator Data (R)[190][R]January 9–12, 2023500 (LV)± 4.5%42%42%–16%
Public Policy Polling (D)[38][A]October 7–8, 2022606 (RV)± 4.0%44%42%–14%
Meeting Street Insights (R)[191][S]May 12–16, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%42%48%–10%
Hypothetical polling

Josh Stein vs. Dale Folwell

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Josh
Stein (D)		Dale
Folwell (R)		Undecided
East Carolina University[33]February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%42%31%27%
East Carolina University[57]November 29 – December 1, 2023915 (RV)± 3.8%40%38%22%
Cygnal (R)[187][B]May 12–23, 2023610 (LV)± 4.0%39%34%27%

Josh Stein vs. Bill Graham

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Josh
Stein (D)		Bill
Graham (R)		Undecided
East Carolina University[33]February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%40%35%25%
East Carolina University[57]November 29 – December 1, 2023915 (RV)± 3.8%42%39%19%

Josh Stein vs. Mark Walker

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Josh
Stein (D)		Mark
Walker (R)		Undecided
Cygnal (R)[187][B]May 12–23, 2023610 (LV)± 4.0%39%37%24%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Generic
Democrat		Generic
Republican		OtherUndecided
High Point University[31]February 16–23, 2024753 (LV)± 3.9%46%45%2%[bb]7%

Results

[edit]
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic—+15-20%
  •   Democratic—+10-15%
  •   Democratic—+5-10%
  •   Democratic—+<5%
  •   Republican—+<5%
  •   Republican—+5-10%
Trend by county
Legend
  •   Democratic—+15-20%
  •   Democratic—+10-15%
  •   Democratic—+5-10%
  •   Democratic—+<5%
  •   Republican—+<5%
  •   Republican—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+10-15%
County flips
Legend

  • Democratic

      Hold
      Gain from Republican

    Republican

      Hold

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election[192]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticJosh Stein3,069,49654.90%+3.38%
RepublicanMark Robinson2,241,30940.08%–6.93%
LibertarianMike Ross176,3923.15%+2.05%
ConstitutionVinny Smith54,7380.98%+0.60%
GreenWayne Turner49,6120.89%N/A
Total votes5,591,547100.0%
Democratichold

By county

[edit]
County[193]Josh Stein
Democratic		Mark Robinson
Republican		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Alamance47,11853.33%36,97941.86%4,2484.81%10,13911.47%88,345
Alexander5,43526.71%13,93068.46%9824.83%-8,495-41.75%20,347
Alleghany2,19334.66%3,83060.53%3044.81%-1,637-25.87%6,327
Anson5,70853.05%4,68143.51%3703.44%1,0279.54%10,759
Ashe5,64635.78%9,35959.31%7744.91%-3,713-23.53%15,779
Avery2,71529.42%6,12366.36%3894.22%-3,408-36.94%9,227
Beaufort10,87141.73%14,04453.91%1,1364.36%-3,173-12.18%26,051
Bertie5,43660.21%3,38237.46%2112.33%2,05422.75%9,029
Bladen7,46045.19%8,44651.17%6013.64%-986-5.98%16,507
Brunswick51,33548.12%48,25045.23%7,1006.65%3,0852.89%106,685
Buncombe106,61167.62%44,37328.15%6,6714.23%62,23839.47%157,655
Burke16,27436.14%26,60259.08%2,1534.78%-10,328-22.94%45,029
Cabarrus61,56252.29%49,50042.04%6,6745.67%12,06210.25%117,736
Caldwell12,93230.26%27,56364.50%2,2415.24%-14,631-34.24%42,736
Camden1,59725.74%4,36570.62%2193.64%-2,768-44.88%6,181
Carteret16,80837.61%25,06956.10%2,8116.29%-8,261-18.49%44,688
Caswell5,10043.13%6,27953.10%4463.77%-1,179-9.97%11,825
Catawba32,57438.04%48,70456.88%4,3455.08%-16,130-18.84%85,623
Chatham32,24462.81%16,88832.90%2,2044.29%15,35629.91%51,336
Cherokee4,08923.25%12,88473.25%6153.50%-8,795-50.00%17,588
Chowan3,14442.24%4,08654.90%2132.86%-942-12.66%7,443
Clay2,07027.25%5,28169.51%2463.24%-3,211-42.26%7,597
Cleveland19,73339.05%28,35056.11%2,4464.84%-8,617-17.06%50,529
Columbus9,92038.40%14,97057.95%9413.65%-5,050-19.55%25,381
Craven25,70546.75%26,30747.85%2,9705.40%-602-1.10%54,982
Cumberland83,63760.65%47,01434.09%7,2595.26%36,62326.56%137,910
Currituck4,83627.25%12,15368.49%7564.26%-7,317-41.24%17,745
Dare11,03144.52%12,71751.33%1,0294.15%-1,686-6.81%24,504
Davidson32,42135.22%54,24158.92%5,3895.86%-21,820-23.70%92,051
Davie9,37335.54%15,39358.37%1,6076.09%-6,020-22.83%26,373
Duplin8,90539.76%12,63456.41%8593.83%-3,729-16.65%22,398
Durham150,55584.03%22,54112.58%6,0713.39%128,01471.45%179,167
Edgecombe15,71565.28%7,67531.88%6852.84%8,04033.40%24,075
Forsyth127,55163.74%62,32031.14%10,2355.12%65,23132.60%200,106
Franklin21,00149.91%18,95845.06%2,1185.03%2,0434.85%42,077
Gaston51,42844.15%58,19449.96%6,8655.89%-6,766-5.81%116,487
Gates2,33440.55%3,25256.50%1702.95%-918-15.95%5,756
Graham1,14324.56%3,32171.37%1894.07%-2,178-46.81%4,653
Granville16,29651.58%13,88643.95%1,4144.47%2,4107.63%31,596
Greene3,83946.20%4,22950.89%2422.91%-390-4.69%8,310
Guilford187,56467.12%78,46228.08%13,4094.80%109,10239.04%279,435
Halifax14,95263.12%8,15534.43%5802.45%6,79728.69%23,687
Harnett27,62144.07%31,55250.34%3,5055.59%-3,931-6.27%62,678
Haywood17,20446.16%18,15548.71%1,9105.13%-951-2.55%37,269
Henderson34,26149.65%31,30345.36%3,4454.99%2,9584.29%69,009
Hertford6,15363.91%3,23933.64%2362.45%2,91430.27%9,628
Hoke12,71057.01%8,33537.39%1,2505.60%4,37519.62%22,295
Hyde1,05044.14%1,24752.42%823.44%-197-8.28%2,379
Iredell44,66241.22%57,37652.95%6,3215.83%-12,714-11.73%108,359
Jackson11,30952.36%9,14142.32%1,1495.32%2,16810.04%21,599
Johnston57,60547.16%57,75747.28%6,7895.56%-152-0.12%122,151
Jones2,21741.21%2,92854.42%2354.37%-711-13.21%5,380
Lee14,45549.11%13,36345.40%1,6145.49%1,0923.71%29,432
Lenoir13,88951.57%12,08044.85%9643.58%1,8096.72%26,933
Lincoln19,08435.02%32,18859.06%3,2255.92%-13,104-24.04%54,497
Macon8,28638.73%12,02656.22%1,0805.05%-3,740-17.49%21,392
Madison6,20746.38%6,53348.81%6444.81%-326-2.43%13,384
Martin6,02351.01%5,44146.08%3442.91%5824.93%11,808
McDowell7,51332.32%14,72463.35%1,0064.33%-7,211-31.03%23,243
Mecklenburg408,88271.81%131,36123.07%29,1745.12%277,52148.74%569,417
Mitchell2,34627.25%5,96169.24%3023.51%-3,615-41.99%8,609
Montgomery4,96638.35%7,41757.28%5664.37%-2,451-18.93%12,949
Moore26,19943.59%30,30450.42%3,6055.99%-4,105-6.83%60,108
Nash28,45455.26%21,31741.40%1,7203.34%7,13713.86%51,491
New Hanover80,83459.65%46,53734.34%8,1456.01%34,29725.31%135,516
Northampton5,54961.11%3,27736.09%2552.80%2,27225.02%9,081
Onslow30,72238.79%42,68953.90%5,7867.31%-11,967-15.11%79,197
Orange69,06879.88%14,52416.80%2,8743.32%54,54463.08%86,466
Pamlico3,19340.62%4,30954.81%3594.57%-1,116-14.19%7,861
Pasquotank9,72448.45%9,72048.43%6283.12%40.02%20,072
Pender15,48540.77%20,07752.87%2,4156.36%-4,592-12.10%37,977
Perquimans2,43632.05%4,96765.36%1972.59%-2,531-33.31%7,600
Person9,63945.16%10,85250.84%8534.00%-1,213-5.68%21,344
Pitt50,85359.42%31,26836.53%3,4674.05%19,58522.89%85,588
Polk5,50942.86%6,73652.41%6084.73%-1,227-9.55%12,853
Randolph21,90729.50%48,45065.25%3,8945.25%-26,543-35.75%74,251
Richmond8,59444.31%10,08351.98%7193.71%-1,489-7.67%19,396
Robeson18,75241.43%24,80454.80%1,7073.77%-6,052-13.37%45,263
Rockingham19,13339.37%27,05055.66%2,4154.97%-7,917-16.29%48,598
Rowan28,43138.64%40,84555.50%4,3125.86%-12,414-16.86%73,588
Rutherford11,17533.05%21,01762.15%1,6254.80%-9,842-29.10%33,817
Sampson11,21140.70%15,34155.69%9953.61%-4,130-14.99%27,547
Scotland7,12349.84%6,73047.09%4393.07%3932.75%14,292
Stanly11,23131.22%22,76563.29%1,9735.49%-11,534-32.07%35,969
Stokes7,74629.07%17,41365.35%1,4875.58%-9,667-36.28%26,646
Surry12,30133.47%22,62061.54%1,8354.99%-10,319-28.07%36,756
Swain3,05344.69%3,44250.38%3374.93%-389-5.69%6,832
Transylvania10,48351.31%9,02444.17%9254.52%1,4597.14%20,432
Tyrrell76144.76%89252.47%472.77%-131-7.71%1,700
Union59,60843.72%69,03150.64%7,6895.64%-9,423-6.92%136,328
Vance12,04161.07%7,10336.02%5742.91%4,93825.05%19,718
Wake448,87069.83%157,91224.57%36,0105.60%290,95845.26%642,792
Warren6,41264.52%3,22332.43%3033.05%3,18932.09%9,938
Washington3,31256.59%2,37840.63%1632.78%93415.96%5,853
Watauga19,02158.73%11,69736.12%1,6675.15%7,32422.61%32,385
Wayne25,19447.00%26,25448.97%2,1604.03%-1,060-1.97%53,608
Wilkes9,90927.96%23,85367.30%1,6824.74%-13,944-39.34%35,444
Wilson22,15756.37%15,79240.18%1,3573.45%6,36516.19%39,306
Yadkin5,61928.14%13,28766.53%1,0655.33%-7,668-38.39%19,971
Yancey4,48340.34%6,20955.87%4223.79%-1,726-15.53%11,114
Totals3,069,49654.90%2,241,30940.08%280,7425.02%828,18714.82%5,591,547

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Stein won 12 of 14 congressional districts, including eight that elected Republican representatives, and nine that voted forDonald Trump.[194]

DistrictSteinRobinsonRepresentativePresidential Result
1st53%44%Don DavisTrump
2nd73%21%Deborah RossHarris
3rd46%49%Greg MurphyTrump
4th78%18%Valerie FousheeHarris
5th48%47%Virginia FoxxTrump
6th49%46%Addison McDowellTrump
7th51%43%David RouzerTrump
8th47%48%Mark HarrisTrump
9th49%46%Richard HudsonTrump
10th48%46%Pat HarriganTrump
11th51%44%Chuck EdwardsTrump
12th77%18%Alma AdamsHarris
13th49%45%Brad KnottTrump
14th49%45%Tim MooreTrump

Voter demographics

[edit]
2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election (CNN)[195]
Demographic subgroupSteinRobinson% of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals96221
Moderates712340
Conservatives158039
Party
Democrats96232
Republicans138334
Independents583535
Gender
Men484748
Women613452
Age
18–24 years old59309
25–29 years old63325
30–39 years old593815
40–49 years old583616
50–64 years old494729
65 and older544225
Race/ethnicity
White464969
Black85819
Latino53398
AsianN/AN/A1
OtherN/AN/A2
Gender by race
White men425534
White women514436
Black men75138
Black women93411
Latino men39514
Latino women67264
Other racial/ethnic groups55414
White born-again or evangelical Christian?
Yes227431
No712469
Education
Never attendedcollege425016
Some college education544225
Associate degree435217
Bachelor's degree643325
Postgraduate692616
Education by race
White college graduates623431
White no college degree346238
Non-white college graduates762110
Non-white no college degree721920
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees672816
White women without college degrees385820
White men with college degrees574015
White men without college degrees296719
Non-white742031
Area type
Urban742028
Suburban484753
Rural454920

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdefghiKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^"Would not vote" with 4%
  3. ^abc"Someone else" with 4%
  4. ^ab"Someone else" with 7%
  5. ^ab"Someone else" with 10%
  6. ^"Someone else" with 9%
  7. ^"Would not vote" with 3%
  8. ^ab"Someone else" with 6%
  9. ^abc"Someone else" with 5%
  10. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. ^abcd"Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%
  12. ^Ross (L) with 3%
  13. ^"Neither" with 6%; "Other" with 3%
  14. ^Ross (L) with 2%; Smith (C) with 1%
  15. ^ab"Another party's candidate" with 3%
  16. ^"Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%; Ross (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  17. ^"Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  18. ^"Other" with 4%; "None" with 3%
  19. ^Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%; Smith (C) with <1%
  20. ^"Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  21. ^"Refused" with 2%
  22. ^Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) and Smith (C) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  23. ^Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  24. ^ab"Wouldn't Vote" and "Refused" with 1%
  25. ^Ross (L) with 3%, Smith (C), "Wouldn't Vote", and "Refused" with 1%
  26. ^ab"Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  27. ^With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  28. ^ab"Would not vote" with 1%
  29. ^"Some other candidate" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  30. ^Ross (L) with 3%; Smith (C), "Other" with 1%
  31. ^"Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  32. ^"Neither" with 8%; "Other" with 3%
  33. ^"Someone else" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 4%
  34. ^"Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  35. ^ab"Other" with 1% and "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  36. ^ab"Another party's candidate" with 1%
  37. ^Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G), Smith (C), and "Someone else" with 1%
  38. ^ab"Someone else" with 2%
  39. ^Ross (L) with 2%
  40. ^Ross (L) with 1%; "Other" with 2%
  41. ^Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; Smith (C) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  42. ^Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G), Smith (C), "Write-in candidate" each with <1%
  43. ^"Someone else" with 3%
  44. ^Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Others" with 1%
  45. ^Ross (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  46. ^Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Undecided Third Party" with 4%
  47. ^Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%
  48. ^Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  49. ^Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  50. ^Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 2%
  51. ^Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 1%
  52. ^Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 2%
  53. ^Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  54. ^"Another party's candidate" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^abcdefghijkPoll sponsored by Carolina Forward
  2. ^abcdefPoll sponsored by theJohn Locke Foundation
  3. ^Poll sponsored by Nexstar
  4. ^abcPoll sponsored byWRAL-TV
  5. ^abPoll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, which supports Republican candidates.
  6. ^abPoll sponsored byHigh Point University
  7. ^abcdefgPoll sponsored byThe Daily Telegraph
  8. ^abcdPoll sponsored by the Carolina Journal
  9. ^abcPoll sponsored byThe Hill
  10. ^Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  11. ^Poll sponsored byNapolitan Institute
  12. ^Poll sponsored byThe Cook Political Report
  13. ^Poll sponsored byAARP
  14. ^Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, which supports Democratic candidates
  15. ^Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  16. ^Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  17. ^Poll sponsored by Carolina Partnership for Reform & Carolina Leadership Coalition
  18. ^Poll sponsored by the NC Values Commission
  19. ^Poll sponsored by the Carolina Partnership for Reform

References

[edit]
  1. ^"2024 State Primary Election Dates".ncsl.org. RetrievedAugust 6, 2023.
  2. ^"Josh Stein defeats Mark Robinson to become North Carolina's first Jewish governor". The Jerusalem Post. RetrievedNovember 5, 2024.
  3. ^"Democrats Actually Had Quite a Good Night in North Carolina". The Atlantic. RetrievedNovember 17, 2024.
  4. ^"North Carolina Democrats find electoral success further down the ballot and hope to build on it". Associated Press. RetrievedNovember 17, 2024.
  5. ^"Republican Ted Budd wins North Carolina's U.S. Senate race".AP NEWS. November 8, 2022. RetrievedMarch 19, 2023.
  6. ^ab"State Composite Abstract Report - Contest.pdf"(PDF).North Carolina State Board of Elections. RetrievedNovember 24, 2020.
  7. ^"North Carolina Official General Election Results". North Carolina State Board of Elections. November 8, 2016. RetrievedJanuary 5, 2017.
  8. ^abcdSchneider, Elena (January 18, 2023)."North Carolina AG Josh Stein launches bid for governor".Politico. RetrievedMarch 19, 2023.
  9. ^abCunningham, Eric (September 19, 2024)."Ratings Update: Mark Robinson Scandals Shift North Carolina Gubernatorial Race Shifts to Safe Democratic".Elections Daily. RetrievedSeptember 19, 2024.
  10. ^Langston, Grant (December 7, 2023)."Tryon councilwoman eyes North Carolina governor seat".Tryon Daily Bulletin. RetrievedDecember 9, 2023.
  11. ^abMikkelsen, Emily; Melrose, Justyn (December 15, 2023)."Election 2024 North Carolina: These are the candidates who filed for races impacting the Piedmont Triad".WGHP. RetrievedDecember 18, 2023.
  12. ^Schoenbaum, Hannah (September 12, 2023)."Former North Carolina justice enters Democratic primary for governor in 2024".Associated Press News.
  13. ^Wooten, Alan (December 14, 2023)."Democrat Josh Stein, Libertarian Shannon Bray file for North Carolina governor race".Jacksonville Daily News. RetrievedJanuary 19, 2024.Democrats headed to the March 5 gubernatorial primary include Chrelle Booker, Mike Morgan and Marcus Williams in addition to Stein.
  14. ^abcdeDoyle, Steve (November 15, 2022)."Who will run to replace North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper? Here are 6 possibilities".FOX8 WGHP. RetrievedNovember 29, 2022.
  15. ^abc"North Carolina AG Josh Stein running for governor in 2024".wcnc.com. January 18, 2023.
  16. ^abcDoyle, Steve (January 18, 2023)."Democrat Josh Stein is running for North Carolina governor. But who else may be on the ballot? We have names".FOX8.
  17. ^abMills, Thomas (January 18, 2023)."Stein Kicks Off the 2024 Cycle".PoliticsNC. Archived fromthe original on January 18, 2023. RetrievedApril 16, 2025.
  18. ^Martin, Emmy; Horton, Ethan E. (January 18, 2023)."Josh Stein, NC's attorney general, announces his bid for governor".The Daily Tar Heel. RetrievedApril 16, 2025.
  19. ^Singer, Jeff (January 20, 2023)."Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/20".
  20. ^"Democratic NC Attorney General Josh Stein to run for governor". January 18, 2023.
  21. ^Hubbard, Kathryn (August 30, 2023)."Gov. Roy Cooper endorses AG Josh Stein for NC governor".WNCN.
  22. ^Chi-Sing, Haley (January 18, 2023)."NC Democrat AG Stein announces run for governor, immediately slams Lt Gov Robinson". Fox News. RetrievedJune 13, 2023.
  23. ^ab"NextGen PAC Endorses North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor Ahead of 2024 Elections".NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. RetrievedMay 10, 2023.
  24. ^McMillan, MaryBe (June 8, 2023)."North Carolina AFL-CIO Endorses Josh Stein for Governor".NC State AFL-CIO. RetrievedJune 13, 2023.
  25. ^"NCAE Endorses Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor in 2024".North Carolina Association of Educators. April 1, 2023. RetrievedAugust 4, 2023.
  26. ^"End Citizens United / Let America Vote Endorses Josh Stein for North Carolina Governor".End Citizens United. May 31, 2023. RetrievedMay 31, 2023.
  27. ^"NCLCV Conservation PAC endorses AG Josh Stein for Governor". March 1, 2023. RetrievedAugust 4, 2023.
  28. ^"Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor in North Carolina".Reproductive Freedom for All. November 2, 2023. Archived fromthe original on November 2, 2023. RetrievedNovember 2, 2023.
  29. ^"Endorsements".Sierra Club. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2024.
  30. ^ab"NC governor endorsements: Our choices in the Democratic and GOP primaries".The Charlotte Observer. February 18, 2024.
  31. ^abc"HPU Poll: North Carolina Presidential and Gubernatorial Primaries".High Point University. March 1, 2024. RetrievedApril 16, 2025.
  32. ^abc"The Carolina Forward February Poll".Carolina Forward. February 26, 2024. RetrievedApril 16, 2025.
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  45. ^Griffin, Kevin (December 16, 2023)."Former state senator from Hickory declines to file for governor after announcing campaign".Hickory Daily Record. RetrievedDecember 18, 2023.
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  64. ^Zehnder, Katherine (July 18, 2024)."Constitution Party candidates file for November ballot".Carolina Journal. RetrievedJuly 25, 2024.
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