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2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2024 United States gubernatorial elections.

2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
← 2022
November 5, 2024
2026 →
 
NomineeKelly AyotteJoyce Craig
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote436,122360,149
Percentage53.61%44.27%
County results
Municipality results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Interactive map version
Ayotte:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Craig:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     >90%
     No votes
Governor before election

Chris Sununu
Republican

ElectedGovernor

Kelly Ayotte
Republican

Elections in New Hampshire
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The2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024 to elect thegovernor of New Hampshire. Incumbent Republican Gov.Chris Sununu did not seek election to a fifth term.[1]

Primary elections took place on September 10, 2024.[2]Republican former U.S. SenatorKelly Ayotte won the Republican nomination with 63% of the vote over former state senate presidentChuck Morse, andDemocratic former Manchester mayorJoyce Craig won the Democratic nomination with 48% of the vote over state executive councilorCinde Warmington.

Ayotte won the general election, defeating Craig by a 9.34% margin. The election was the closest gubernatorial race for a U.S. state in the 2024 cycle. Along with neighboringVermont, this race was one of two Republican-held governorships up for election in 2024 in a stateJoe Biden won in the2020 presidential election.

Background

[edit]

New Hampshire is a Democratic-leaning state inNew England with a pattern ofsplit-ticket voting. Incumbent Republican governorChris Sununu was narrowly elected in2016 and won re-election in2018,2020, and2022 despite Republican presidential candidateDonald Trump losing the state in both2016 and2020. Sununu opted not to seek re-election in 2024.

This race was widely considered a tossup due to the incumbent retiring, the state's pattern of ticket splitting, and the concurrent2024 presidential election.[3]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Shaun Fife, farmer[5]
  • Robert McClory, welder[6]
  • Richard McMenamon, auto repair shop owner and candidate for governor in2022[7]
  • Chuck Morse, former president of theNew Hampshire Senate, former acting governor, and candidate for U.S. Senate in2022[8]
  • Frank Staples, transitional living program owner[6]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Kelly Ayotte

U.S. senators

Governors

State legislators

Individuals

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of September 4, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Kelly Ayotte (R)$7,301,915$5,499,318$1,677,858
Chuck Morse (R)$1,513,599$1,472,846$40,753
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System[21]

Debates

[edit]
DateHostAyotteMorseLink
August 26, 2024N.H. Institute of PoliticsParticipantParticipantYouTube
September 3, 2024WMUR-TVParticipantParticipantYouTube

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Kelly
Ayotte		Chuck
Morse		Undecided
University of New Hampshire[22]August 15–19, 2024915 (LV)± 3.2%65%21%13%[b]
Saint Anselm College[23]August 13–14, 2024657 (LV)± 3.8%59%25%16%
Emerson College[24][A]July 26–28, 2024421 (RV)± 4.7%41%26%33%
Praecones Analytica[25][B]May 15–20, 2024420 (RV)± 6.42%50%28%22%
UMass Lowell[26]January 6–16, 2024600 (LV)± 4.65%54%22%23%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Kelly
Ayotte		Robert
Burns		Frank
Edelblut		Chuck
Morse		OtherUndecided
Emerson College[27]August 9–11, 2023498 (RV)± 4.9%45%3%4%9%3%35%
co/efficient[28][B]June 14–16, 2023904 (LV)± 3.25%69%–9%22%––

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Ayotte
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%

Ayotte secured a major[29] victory over Morse, winning almost two thirds of the vote. She performed the best inSullivan County in the southwest of the state, earning 74% of the vote. Conversely, she recorded her worst result inRockingham County in the southeast, receiving just 54.7% of the vote.[30]

Republican primary results[31]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanKelly Ayotte88,11763.12%
RepublicanChuck Morse47,56734.07%
RepublicanShaun Fife8760.63%
Write-in8670.62%
RepublicanRobert McClory8390.60%
RepublicanFrank Staples8090.58%
RepublicanRichard McMenamon5270.38%
Total votes139,602100.00%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Joyce Craig

Governors

U.S. representatives

New Hampshire cabinet officials

Judicial officials

State legislators

Local officials

Party officials

Other officials

Labor unions

Cinde Warmington

Governors

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Debates

[edit]
2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial Democratic primary debate
No.DateHostModeratorLinkDemocraticDemocraticDemocratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W  Withdrawn
CraigWarmingtonKiper
1Sep. 4, 2024WMUR-TVAdam SextonYouTubePPP

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of August 20, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Joyce Craig (D)$2,976,496$2,630,738$342,052
Cinde Warmington (D)$2,287,849$2,135,285$152,564
Jon Kiper (D)$58,277$55,985$1,443
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System[21]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Joyce
Craig		Cinde
Warmington		OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire[22]August 15–19, 2024809 (LV)± 3.4%39%30%8%[c]23%
Saint Anselm College[23]August 13–14, 2024670 (LV)± 3.8%37%28%3%[d]31%
Emerson College[24][A]July 26–28, 2024433 (RV)± 4.7%33%21%–44%
GBAO[50][C]February 22–26, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%37%25%–39%
Emerson College[27]August 9–11, 2023837 (RV)± 3.4%30%15%2%52%

Results

[edit]
Results by county
  Craig
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Warmington
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Results by county
Results by municipality
  Craig
  •   30–40%
      40–50%
  •   50–60%
      60–70%
      70–80%
      80–90%
      >90%
  Warmington
  •   30–40%
      40–50%
  •   50–60%
      60–70%
      70–80%
      80–90%
  Kiper
  •   40–50%
  Tie
  •   40–50%
      No Votes
Results by municipality
Democratic primary results[31]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticJoyce Craig59,97647.88%
DemocraticCinde Warmington52,42041.85%
DemocraticJon Kiper11,7899.41%
Write-in1,0760.86%
Total votes125,261100.00%

Third parties and independent candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Failed to qualify

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[3]TossupOctober 15, 2024
Inside Elections[55]TossupSeptember 26, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[56]Lean RNovember 4, 2024
RCP[57]TossupOctober 1, 2024
Elections Daily[58]Lean RNovember 4, 2024
CNalysis[59]Tilt RNovember 1, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Joyce Craig (D)

Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of November 5, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Kelly Ayotte (R)$21,005,579$18,668,848$2,204,119
Joyce Craig (D)$7,346,371$6,827,299$515,368
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System[21]

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Kelly
Ayotte (R)		Joyce
Craig (D)		Undecided
[e]		Margin
RealClearPolitics[63]October 21 – November 2, 2024November 3, 202446.8%44.3%8.9%Ayotte +2.5%
270toWin[64]October 24 – November 3, 2024November 3, 202447.0%44.0%9.0%Ayotte +3.0%
Average46.9%44.2%8.9%Ayotte +2.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Kelly
Ayotte (R)		Joyce
Craig (D)		OthersUndecided
Dartmouth College[65]November 1–3, 2024587 (LV)± 4.0%40%58%2%[f]–
University of New Hampshire[66]October 29 – November 2, 20242,814 (LV)± 1.9%48%44%1%[g]6%
Saint Anselm College[67]October 28–29, 20242,791 (LV)± 1.9%49%46%2%[h]3%
Praecones Analytica[68][B]October 24–26, 2024622 (RV)± 3.9%52%48%––
Emerson College[69][A]October 21–23, 2024915 (LV)± 3.2%50%46%5%[i]–
46%43%4%[j]7%
UMass Lowell/YouGov[70]October 10–23, 2024600 (LV)± 4.4%45%43%4%[k]8%
Dartmouth College[71]October 5–18, 20242,196 (RV)± 2.1%46%51%3%[l]–
UMass Lowell/YouGov[72]October 2–10, 2024600 (LV)± 4.8%42%41%4%[m]14%
Saint Anselm College[73]October 1–2, 20242,104 (LV)± 2.1%47%44%3%[n]6%
University of New Hampshire[74]September 12–16, 20241,695 (LV)± 2.4%46%47%1%[o]5%
Saint Anselm College[75]September 11–12, 20242,241 (LV)± 2.1%46%43%5%[p]6%
September 10, 2024Primary elections held
Emerson College[76][A]November 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%43%40%—17%
Emerson College[27]August 9–11, 2023837 (RV)± 3.4%46%37%—17%
Hypothetical polling

Kelly Ayotte vs. Cinde Warmington

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Kelly
Ayotte (R)		Cinde
Warmington (D)		Undecided
Emerson College[76][A]November 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%44%37%19%
Emerson College[27]August 9–11, 2023837 (RV)± 3.4%47%34%19%

Results

[edit]
Margin swing by county from 2022 to 2024
2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election[77][78]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanKelly Ayotte436,12253.61%−3.37%
DemocraticJoyce Craig360,14944.27%+2.80%
LibertarianStephen Villee16,2021.99%+0.72%
Write-in1,0240.13%-0.15%
Total votes813,497100.00%N/A
Turnout832,518
Registered electors
Republicanhold

By county

[edit]
By county
2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results (by county)[79]
CountyKelly Ayote
Republican		Joyce Craig
Democratic		Other votes
#%#%#%
Belknap24,73261.41%14,76236.65%7811.94%
Carroll19,10455.93%14,40742.18%6471.89%
Cheshire21,34247.96%22,10749.67%1,0552.37%
Coös10,04759.63%6,34937.68%4532.69%
Grafton24,26044.29%29,21253.33%1,3012.38%
Hillsborough125,88354.48%100,39543.45%4,7702.07%
Merrimack47,79252.07%42,07045.83%1,9262.1%
Rockingham113,66756.88%82,34441.21%3,8251.92%
Strafford36,04047.76%37,64149.88%1,7782.36%
Sullivan13,25553.43%10,86243.79%6902.78%

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Ayotte won both congressional districts, which both elected Democrats.[80]

DistrictAyotteCraigRepresentative
1st54%44%Chris Pappas
2nd53%45%Annie Kuster (118th Congress)
Maggie Goodlander (119th Congress)

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdeKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^Shaun Fife, Robert McClory, and Richard McMenamon with 0%
  3. ^Jon Kiper with 8%
  4. ^Jon Kiper with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  5. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^"Another Candidate" with 2%
  7. ^Villee (L) with 1%
  8. ^"Someone else" with 2%
  9. ^Villee (L) with 5%
  10. ^Villee (L) with 4%
  11. ^Villee (L) with 3%; "Another Candidate" with 1%
  12. ^"Another Candidate" with 3%
  13. ^Stephen Ville with 3% and "Another candidate" with 1%
  14. ^"Someone else" with 3%
  15. ^"Another candidate" with 1%; Stephen Villee (L) with 0%
  16. ^Someone else with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. ^abcdePoll sponsored byWHDH-TV
  2. ^abcPoll sponsored by the NH Journal
  3. ^Poll sponsored by Warmington's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Chris Sununu will not run for re-election for fifth term as New Hampshire governor".CBS News. July 19, 2023. RetrievedJuly 19, 2023.
  2. ^"2024 State Primary Election Dates".NCSL. RetrievedAugust 6, 2023.
  3. ^ab"2024 Governor Race ratings".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedJuly 24, 2023.
  4. ^"Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte wins GOP primary for New Hampshire governor".The Hill. September 11, 2024. RetrievedSeptember 11, 2024.
  5. ^Sexton, Adam (June 5, 2024)."Republican Shaun Fife files to run for New Hampshire governor".WMUR-TV. RetrievedJune 5, 2024.
  6. ^ab"Democratic cumulative filing as of 06/12/24"(PDF). Office of the Secretary of State – Election Division.
  7. ^"2024 Election Details". New Hampshire Secretary of State. June 5, 2024.
  8. ^Tasolides, Justin (July 19, 2023)."N.H. GOP Gov. Sununu says he will not seek fifth term".Spectrum News. RetrievedJuly 19, 2023.
  9. ^Porter, Steven (April 20, 2023)."Who will run for New Hampshire governor if Chris Sununu runs for president?".Boston Globe.
  10. ^Kashinsky, Lisa (August 3, 2023)."Scott Brown isn't done yet".Politico. RetrievedAugust 3, 2023.
  11. ^Dawg, Jay (April 4, 2023)."Edelblut Considering A Run For Governor".The Pulse of NH.
  12. ^Edelblut, Frank (September 3, 2023)."America the beautiful. New Hampshire the crown jewel".New Hampshire Union Leader. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2023.I have decided that I will not be running in this cycle.
  13. ^"Chris Sununu will not run for re-election for fifth term as New Hampshire governor".CBS News. July 19, 2023. RetrievedJuly 19, 2023.
  14. ^abVakil, Caroline (August 7, 2024)."Sununu backs Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire GOP gubernatorial primary".The Hill. RetrievedAugust 7, 2024.
  15. ^abWagner, John (July 24, 2023)."Former GOP senator Kelly Ayotte to run for New Hampshire governor".The Washington Post. RetrievedJuly 24, 2023.
  16. ^Tenser, Phil (July 24, 2023)."Kelly Ayotte announces 2024 campaign for New Hampshire governor".WCVB-TV 5. RetrievedSeptember 28, 2023.
  17. ^Sylvia, Andrew (September 8, 2023)."Levasseur, Manchester's GOP State Reps, endorse Ayotte".Manchester Ink Link. RetrievedSeptember 28, 2023.
  18. ^Robidoux, Carol (August 22, 2023)."Ayotte endorsed by Merrimack Republican delegation".Manchester Ink Link. RetrievedSeptember 28, 2023.
  19. ^Bolduc, Don (June 26, 2024)."BOLDUC: Why I'm Endorsing Ayotte for Governor".NH Journal.
  20. ^"Rico Petrocelli endorses Ayotte". November 28, 2023. RetrievedNovember 29, 2023.
  21. ^abc"Candidates and Candidate Committees".New Hampshire Campaign Finance System.
  22. ^ab"University of New Hampshire".
  23. ^ab"Saint Anselm College Survey Center New Poll Takes A Look At New Hampshire's State and Federal Fall Primary Races".www.anselm.edu.
  24. ^abMumford, Camille (July 31, 2024)."New Hampshire 2024 Poll: Harris 50%, Trump 46%".Emerson Polling.
  25. ^"Praecones Analytica"(PDF).
  26. ^"Wayback Machine"(PDF).www.uml.edu.
  27. ^abcdMumford, Camille (August 15, 2023)."New Hampshire 2024: DeSantis Fades, Trump Maintains Lead in Primary".Emerson Polling.
  28. ^"Adobe Acrobat".acrobat.adobe.com.
  29. ^Yurow, Jeremy; Cullen, Margie (September 10, 2024)."Kelly Ayotte, Joyce Craig advance to November showdown in New Hampshire governor race". USA Today. RetrievedSeptember 13, 2024.
  30. ^"New Hampshire Governor election results".Politico. RetrievedSeptember 13, 2024.
  31. ^ab"2024 State Primary Election Results".New Hampshire Secretary of State.
  32. ^Sexton, Adam (July 11, 2023)."Manchester Mayor Craig officially launches campaign for governor".WMUR. RetrievedJuly 11, 2023.
  33. ^Schinella, Tony (November 24, 2023)."Seacoast Restauranter Becomes Third NH Democrat To Run For Governor".Patch Media. RetrievedDecember 7, 2023.
  34. ^Sexton, Adam (June 1, 2023)."NH Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington launches campaign for governor".WMUR. RetrievedJune 1, 2023.
  35. ^Wolf, Stephen (July 20, 2023)."Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 7/20".Daily Kos. RetrievedJuly 20, 2023.Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster quickly ruled out running for governor next year following GOP Gov. Chris Sununu's Wednesday announcement that he wouldn't seek reelection
  36. ^DeWitt, Ethan (November 14, 2022)."After six-year battle to oust Sununu, Democrats fall short again".New Hampshire Bulletin.
  37. ^Porter, Steven (April 20, 2023)."Who will run for New Hampshire governor if Chris Sununu runs for president?".The Boston Globe. RetrievedJuly 19, 2023.
  38. ^Porter, Steve (May 1, 2023)."Outgoing mayor of Manchester, N.H., launches exploratory committee for 2024 governor's race".Boston Globe.Former state senator Dr. Tom Sherman, who ran for governor in 2022 and who some had said could run again, told the Globe on Monday that he won't run for governor in 2024.
  39. ^abcdSteinhauser, Paul (May 1, 2023)."Craig launches gubernatorial exploratory committee".Concord Monitor. RetrievedJune 3, 2023.
  40. ^abcdefghijkRobidoux, Carol (August 20, 2023)."Craig campaign announces 160 new endorsements".Manchester Ink Link. RetrievedSeptember 28, 2023.
  41. ^abcSylvia, Andrew (October 27, 2023)."Craig endorsed by Dr. Tom Sherman".Manchester Ink Link. RetrievedOctober 27, 2023.
  42. ^Landrigan, Kevin (January 29, 2024)."Donchess backs Craig for governor".UnionLeader.com. RetrievedJanuary 29, 2024.
  43. ^Robidoux, Carol (October 3, 2023)."Nashua Teachers' Union Endorses Joyce Craig for Governor".Manchester Ink Link. RetrievedOctober 3, 2023.
  44. ^Landrigan, Kevin (August 31, 2023)."Craig endorsed by Teamsters Local 633 in gubernatorial race".New Hampshire Union Leader. RetrievedSeptember 28, 2023.
  45. ^"Howard Dean endorses Cinde Warmington".Manchester Ink Link. February 10, 2024. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2024.
  46. ^Bookman, Todd (June 1, 2023)."Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington announces campaign for NH governor".New Hampshire Public Radio. RetrievedJune 2, 2023.
  47. ^abcdefScacchi, Mitchell (June 1, 2023)."Exec Councilor Warmington Enters Gov's Race, Likely to Face Craig in Primary".New Hampshire Journal. RetrievedJune 2, 2023.
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  80. ^"DRA 2020".Daves Redistricting.

External links

[edit]

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