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2024 California's 45th congressional district election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For broader coverage of this topic, seeCalifornia's 45th congressional district.

2024 California's 45th congressional district election
← 2022November 5, 20242026 →
 
CandidateDerek TranMichelle Steel
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Popular vote158,264157,611
Percentage50.1%49.9%
County results
Tran:     50-60%
Steel:     50-60%
U.S. Representative before election

Michelle Steel
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Derek Tran
Democratic

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The2024 California's 45th congressional district election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect theUnited States representative forCalifornia's 45th congressional district, concurrently withelections for the other U.S. House districts in California and therest of the country, as well as the2024 U.S. Senate race in California, otherelections to theUnited States Senate, and variousstate andlocal elections. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with theSuper Tuesday presidential primaries. The election was won by Democratic challengerDerek Tran who narrowly unseated Republican incumbentMichelle Steel by just 0.2%, and the race was one of the closest of the election cycle.[1] Major news outlets only called the race 22 days after election night.

Based inOrange County andLos Angeles County, the 45th district contains all ofFountain Valley,Westminster,Garden Grove,Cypress,Buena Park,Cerritos,Artesia,La Palma,Placentia,Hawaiian Gardens,Los Alamitos, andRossmoor, as well as portions ofBrea,Lakewood,Fullerton, andYorba Linda.[2] One-third of all registered voters in the district areAsian American, withVietnamese Americans alone comprising 16% of the district's voters.[3]

The incumbent was RepublicanMichelle Steel, who was re-elected with 52.4% of the vote in2022. Steel, who isKorean American, was first elected in2020, unseating incumbent DemocratHarley Rouda. She previously served as a member of theOrange County Board of Supervisors and theCalifornia State Board of Equalization.

The race was expected to be highly competitive as it is apurple suburban district. Both House Democrats and House Republicans listed California's 45th district among their highest-priority districts in the 2024 election.[4][5]Joe Biden carried this district by a 6% margin in the2020 presidential election.[6] Steel was one of 17 House Republicans representing a Biden-won district.[7] At the local level, however, the 45th district has trended Republican, voting for Republicans in every state race in 2022.[8]

Primary election

[edit]

At the end of 2023, Tran announced that he would enter the primary in a bid to become the party's nominee for theU.S. Representative seat inCalifornia's 45th congressional district.[9] In March, Tran secured his position as the Democratic nominee, beating another candidate, Kim Nguyen-Penaloza, by 366 votes to face incumbent Republican Steel.[10]

Candidates

[edit]
Kim Nguyen-Penaloza

Advanced to general

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Cheyenne Hunt (D)

Individuals

Organizations

Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D)

U.S. representatives

State senators

State assemblymembers

Municipal officials

Local officials

Individuals

Party chapters

Labor unions

Newspapers and other media

Organizations

Michelle Steel (R)

U.S. representatives

Municipal officials

Local officials

Organizations

Party chapters

Derek Tran (D)

U.S. representatives

Municipal officials

Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of October 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Michelle Steel (R)$8,971,455[a]$5,675,115$3,752,876
Cheyenne Hunt (D)$389,534[b]$254,544$134,990
Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D)$359,909$357,405$2,503
Aditya Pai (D)$304,926[c]$276,752$10,396
Derek Tran (D)$4,380,401$3,423,836$956,564
Source:Federal Election Commission[69]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Cheyenne
Hunt (D)		Kim Nguyen-
Penaloza (D)		Aditya
Pai (D)		Michelle
Steel (R)		Derek
Tran (D)		OtherUndecided
RMG Research[70][A]November 14–19, 2023300 (LV)± 5.7%4%10%1%28%–9%[e]47%
Tulchin Research[71][B]November 13–19, 2023500 (LV)± 4.9%6%10%2%39%11%–32%

Results

[edit]
Results by county and municipality
  Steel
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  No votes / no data
2024 California's 45th congressional district primary[72]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanMichelle Steel (incumbent)78,02054.9
DemocraticDerek Tran22,54415.9
DemocraticKim Nguyen-Penaloza22,17815.6
DemocraticCheyenne Hunt11,9718.4
DemocraticAditya Pai7,3985.2
Total votes142,111100.0

General election

[edit]

After the March primary, Democrat Tran would face incumbentMichelle Steel, a Republican running for a third term.[73] The district is considered a "battleground district" insofar as it was won byJoe Biden in 2020 but has its seat occupied by a member of theRepublican Party.[74] Tran's campaign has emphasized the centrality of hisVietnamese American identity to his bid, as the district encompasses parts ofLos Angeles County and Orange County and is considered amajority-minority district, including citiesWestminster andGarden Grove, which have predominantly Vietnamese American communities, as well asArtesia andCerritos whereAsian Americans are the largest demographic by race.[75][76]ABC 7 reported that the district was 39% Asian.[77]

Both Steel and Tran vied for support from the district's Vietnamese community, with Steel claiming she understood and worked with the Vietnamese community in the district much better than Tran provoking Tran to respond that the claim was "insulting and disgraceful."[77] TheAsian American Action Fund subsequently condemned Steel's comments.[74] In August 2024, theNew York Post called out Tran for bringing a translator with him to interviews and events, questioning whether he was actually fluent inVietnamese.[78] Steel's campaign additionally used Tran's false claims of proficiency as a point of criticism.[79] At the end of August, Tran admitted to theLos Angeles Times that he had lost his childhood fluency and has since spoken "broken Vietnamese."[80] However, Tran's campaign additionally provided a series of video clips in which Tran spoke Vietnamese on television.[81]

The candidates exchanged accusations of communist sympathies. Tran accused Steel's husband, Shawn, of accepting bribes from theChinese Communist Party in exchange for information, stating that Steel thus could not be trusted with political office in the United States.[82][83] He also drew distinctions between his own family background to that of Steel's, stating that Steel immigrated to the United States for "economic gain" while his family were refugees fleeing communism.[84] Several Asian American leaders and organizations subsequently condemned the comment.[85] Later, on October 22, 2024, theLos Angeles Times reported that Steel's campaign was sending out campaign mailers associating Tran withMao Zedong and accusing him of supporting socialism. Following Tran's disclosure in August that he heldcryptocurrencies, Steel also claimed that his cryptocurrency assets were bound up in China.[82] Steel defended her accusation asserting it was provoked by Tran's earlier messaging.[86] The mutual accusations caused several Asian American nonprofits to pen a letter to both parties stating that such rhetoric should not be used in the race.[77]

In October,Hakeem Jeffries stumped for Tran at a party event in Anaheim, stating that the race would be close.[87]Bill Clinton also appeared in Orange County to stump for Tran as well asDave Min, a state senator in a similarly tight race.[88]

Tran went on to win the general election in one of the tightest battles in the 2024 cycle.

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[89]TossupSeptember 6, 2024
Inside Elections[90]TossupOctober 18, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[91]Lean RNovember 4, 2024
Elections Daily[92]Lean RNovember 4, 2024
CNalysis[93]Tilt D(flip)November 4, 2024

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[d]		Margin
of error		Michelle
Steel (R)		Derek
Tran (D)		Undecided
Normington Petts (D)[94][C]October 13–15, 2024400 (V)± 4.4%45%48%7%
American Viewpoint (R)[95][D][better source needed]October 8–10, 2024400 (V)± 4.9%45%41%14%
USC/CSU[96]September 14–21, 2024498 (LV)± 4.4%46%48%5%
Tulchin Research (D)[97][B]September 14–19, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%45%47%8%
Normington Petts (D)[98][C]July 29–31, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%47%47%6%
Tulchin Research[99][B]May 23 – June 2, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%42%41%17%

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Michelle Steel (R)

Newspapers

Organizations

Derek Tran (D)

Executive branch Officials

U.S. representatives

Newspapers

Organizations

Results

[edit]
2024 California's 45th congressional district election[113][114]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticDerek Tran158,26450.10%+2.51
RepublicanMichelle Steel (incumbent)157,61149.90%−2.51
Total votes315,875100.0%
Democraticgain fromRepublican

By county

[edit]
County[115]Michelle Steel
Republican		Derek Tran
Democratic		MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%
Los Angeles (part)14,84043.77%19,06656.23%4,22612.46%33,906
Orange (part)142,77150.63%139,19849.37%−3,573−1.27%281,969
Totals157,61149.90%158,26450.10%6530.21%315,875

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^$1,910,000 of this total was self-funded by Steel
  2. ^$107,000 of this total was self-funded by Hunt
  3. ^$33,833 of this total was self-funded by Pai
  4. ^abKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^"Someone else" with 8%; "Would not vote" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ^Poll sponsored byU.S. Term Limits
  2. ^abcPoll sponsored by Tran's campaign
  3. ^abPoll sponsored by theDemocratic Congressional Campaign Committee
  4. ^Poll sponsored by Steel's campaign and theNRCC

References

[edit]
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  2. ^"Our District".United States House of Representatives Page of Congresswoman Steel. January 3, 2021. RetrievedMay 1, 2023.
  3. ^Chan, Melissa (November 9, 2022)."Why a Southern California congressional race hinges on Asian American voters".NPR. The Morning Edition. RetrievedMay 1, 2023.
  4. ^Solender, Andrew (November 22, 2022)."House Democrats eye lost ground in 2024".Axios. RetrievedMay 1, 2023.
  5. ^Steinhauser, Paul (February 3, 2023)."McCarthy launches 'Protect the House 2024' as he aims to expand the GOP majority".Fox News. RetrievedMay 1, 2023.
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  11. ^abKang, Hanna (April 4, 2023)."25-year-old OC TikTok influencer could become the next Gen Z member of Congress".The Orange County Register.Lance Trover, Steel's campaign manager, said, 'Southern California voters know her record of fighting for lower taxes, standing up to the Chinese Communist Party and ensuring everyone has a shot at the American dream,' maintaining she will be reelected in 2024.
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San Diego
San Francisco
Irvine
State Board of
Equalization
State Senate
State Assembly
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
★ a special election
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