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2024 California's 16th congressional district election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For broader coverage of this topic, seeCalifornia's 16th congressional district.

2024 California's 16th congressional district election

← 2022November 5, 20242026 →
 
CandidateSam LiccardoEvan Low
PartyDemocraticDemocratic
Popular vote179,583128,893
Percentage58.2%41.8%

County results
Liccardo:     50–60%     60–70%

U.S. Representative before election

Anna Eshoo
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Sam Liccardo
Democratic

Elections in California
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Elections by year

The2024 California's 16th congressional district election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect theUnited States representative forCalifornia's 16th congressional district. The election was held concurrently withelections for the other U.S. House districts in California and therest of the country, as well as the2024 U.S. Senate race in California, otherelections to theUnited States Senate, and variousstate andlocal elections. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with theSuper Tuesday presidential primaries.

The 16th district is an urban/suburban district based inSilicon Valley, including portions ofSanta Clara andSan Mateo counties, extending from the southwesternSan Francisco Bay Area through theSanta Cruz Mountains to the Pacific coast. Its largest cities areSan Jose,Mountain View, andPalo Alto.[1]Joe Biden won the district with 75.4% of the vote in the2020 presidential election, making it asafe Democratic district.[2]

The incumbent prior to the election was DemocratAnna Eshoo, who was re-elected with 57.8% of the vote in 2022 running against another Democrat.[3] She did not seek re-election in 2024.[4] A wide field of 11 candidates filed for the race to succeed her, with 9 Democrats and 2 Republicans joining the race. The primary election was very close, with initial returns showing a heated battle for the two spots in the general election. A week after the primary, media outlets reported that formerSan Jose mayorSam Liccardo had taken first place. However, it was unclear which candidate he would face in the general election, asstate assemblymanEvan Low andSanta Clara County supervisorJoe Simitian repeatedly traded the second-place position during the vote tabulation process.[5]

By April 3, Low and Simitian had tied with 30,249 votes each in the final account, and both were expected to advance to the general election under a stipulation by California elections code regarding a second-place tie in primary elections.[5] However, a recount was requested by two voters shortly thereafter. The recount request was controversial, with Low's campaign accusing Liccardo of being behind it, an accusation which was vehemently denied by Liccardo's campaign.[6] At the conclusion of the recount on May 1, Low ultimately edged out Simitian by a margin of 5 votes, with Low gaining 12 votes and Simitian 7.[7] As required by federal law, the source of the recount funds was later revealed to be a pro-Liccardo super PAC funded almost entirely by billionaireMichael Bloomberg.[8][9]

On November 6, the Associated Press called the race for Liccardo.[10] Low conceded the same day.[11]

The primary results marked the second time since California transitioned to anonpartisan blanket primary system in 2012 in which there was a second-place tie in a primary election and a potential three-candidate general election, the first being the2016 election forCalifornia's 62nd State Assembly district.[a][5]

Primary election

[edit]
2024 California's 16th congressional district primary election (post-recount results)

← 2022March 5, 20242026 →
Turnout182,135 votes
 
CandidateSam LiccardoEvan LowJoe Simitian
PartyDemocraticDemocraticDemocratic
Popular vote38,49230,26130,256
Percentage21.1%16.6%16.6%

 
CandidatePeter OhtakiPeter DixonRishi Kumar
PartyRepublicanDemocraticDemocratic
Popular vote23,28314,67712,383
Percentage12.8%8.1%6.8%

 
CandidateKarl RyanJulie Lythcott-Haims
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote11,56311,386
Percentage6.3%6.2%

U.S. Representative before election

Anna Eshoo
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

TBD

Candidates

[edit]

Advanced to general

[edit]

Initially advanced to general but eliminated after recount

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Joby Bernstein (D)$140,836[c]$59,832$81,003
Peter Dixon (D)$2,792,923[d]$1,894,060$898,862
Rishi Kumar (D)$289,503[e]$186,637$101,756
Sam Liccardo (D)$2,206,228$988,382$1,217,845
Evan Low (D)$1,369,551[f]$1,024,180$345,371
Julie Lythcott-Haims (D)$595,779$443,035$152,744
Ahmed Mostafa (D)$201,773$127,469$74,303
Joe Simitian (D)$951,156$932,783$588,744
Greg Tanaka (D)$15,080[g]$13,182$1,898
Peter Ohtaki (R)$54,169[h]$32,982$21,187
Source:Federal Election Commission[21]

Endorsements

[edit]
Peter Dixon (D)
U.S. representatives
Organizations
Sam Liccardo (D)
U.S. representatives
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Julie Lythcott-Haims (D)
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Organizations
Rishi Kumar (D)
Organizations
Evan Low (D)
U.S. senators
Statewide officials
U.S. representatives
State legislators
County officials
Judges
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers
Ahmed Mostafa (D)
Organizations
Peter Ohtaki (R)
Local officials
Organizations
Karl Ryan (R)
Political parties
Joe Simitian (D)
U.S. representatives
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[i]
Margin
of error
Rishi
Kumar (D)
Sam
Liccardo (D)
Evan
Low (D)
Julie Lythcott-
Haims (D)
Peter
Ohtaki (R)
Karl
Ryan (R)
Joe
Simitian (D)
OtherUndecided
Problosky Research[65][A]January 21–28, 2024400 (LV)± 5%7.5%16%7.3%4%2.5%6.5%13.3%9.4%[j]33.8%
RMG Research[66][B]January 3–4, 2024426 (LV)± 4.76%13%11%5%2%12%2%[k]46%
Public Policy Polling (D)[67][C]November 2023400 (LV)?7%16%5%6%9%12%11%[l]33%

Initial certified results

[edit]
2024 California's 16th congressional district primary (results certified on April 4, 2024)[68]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticSam Liccardo38,48921.1
DemocraticEvan Low30,24916.6
DemocraticJoe Simitian30,24916.6
RepublicanPeter Ohtaki23,27512.8
DemocraticPeter Dixon14,6738.1
DemocraticRishi Kumar12,3776.8
RepublicanKarl Ryan11,5576.3
DemocraticJulie Lythcott-Haims11,3836.2
DemocraticAhmed Mostafa5,8113.2
DemocraticGreg Tanaka2,4211.3
DemocraticJoby Bernstein1,6510.9
Total votes182,135100.0

Recount and involvement of Liccardo super PACs

[edit]

Santa Clara and San Mateo counties certified the primary results on April 4.[69] TheLos Angeles Times pointed out that Low and Simitian had no incentive to request a recount, which could potentially lock them out of the general election.[5] Both campaigns released statements indicating that they intend to compete in the general election.[70] However, local media reported that a poll had been sent to voters testing a three-way race as well as two-way races between Liccardo and each of his opponents, leading to speculation that Liccardo's campaign would ask for a recount.[71] On April 9, officials in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties confirmed that two residents of the district had requested a recount: Jonathan Padilla, who was finance director on Liccardo's2014 mayoral campaign and donated $1,000 to his 2024 congressional campaign, and Pacifica resident Dan Stegink.[6] Stegink later withdrew his request.[72]

Low's campaign alleged that Liccardo was behind the requests, which they called "a page right out of Trump's political playbook using dirty tricks to attack democracy and subvert the will of the voters." Liccardo's campaign denied responsibility, though they maintained the recount was necessary, saying "every vote should be counted."[73] Padilla, a "longtime Silicon Valley political insider," did not answer questions from local media about the source of the funds for the costly recount. Eshoo, who endorsed Simitian, called for transparency in the recount process.[74] In his recount request, Padilla wrote that he was "not coordinating or communicating with any candidate or candidates' agents" and made "this request on behalf of Evan Low."[75] However, Low's campaign reaffirmed that he did not support the recount and called Padilla's statement "disingenuous."[76]

Padilla submitted a $12,000 deposit for the recount on April 12. He opted for amachine recount, in which ballots are re-screened by a machine, rather than a much more expensivemanual recount, in which volunteers would count each ballot by hand. Election officials estimated the cost of the machine recount at around $80,000, whereas a manual recount could have cost upwards of $400,000.[77] The recount began on April 15.[72]

According to reporting byKNTV, the recount is being funded by $12,000 checks from the newly-formed super PAC "Count the Vote" signed by James Sutton, an attorney who had previously represented Liccardo.[78] On April 19, Santa Clara County Government Attorneys Association president Max Zarzana filed a complaint with theFederal Election Commission, alleging that the Liccardo campaign concocted a "secret scheme to illegally coordinate with a newly-formed dark money Super PAC to do his CD-16 recount bidding" and noted Liccardo's past connections with those involved in requesting the recount. Zarzana also highlighted Liccardo's history of "backroom deals" including violations of theCalifornia Public Records Act for which he was previously fined $500,000.[79]

The results of the recount were finalized on May 1, with Low advancing to the general election and Simitian eliminated by a 5-vote margin, 30,261 to 30,256.[7] On May 2, the Liccardo campaign shared internal poll results showing him with a 10-point lead over Low in a two-way race, compared with just a 5-point lead in a three-way race. The poll was completed on April 8, the day before the recount was requested.[80]

On May 20, Neighbors for Results, the super PAC supporting Liccardo almost entirely funded by billionaireMichael Bloomberg, disclosed that it paid $102,000 to the group which funded the recount, Count the Vote PAC.[8][9] The attorney who represented Padilla in his recount request, Matthew Alvarez, is also listed as the treasurer of both super PACs in question. In 2018,Bloomberg Philanthropies previously selected San Jose, which Liccardo was then mayor of, for funding and resources from the American Cities Climate Challenge, and two years later Liccardo then endorsed and served as a state co-chair on Bloomberg's presidential campaign.[81][76] After this information was publicized, a second Bay Area attorney, Brian O'Grady, filed a FEC complaint claiming that the PACs violated federal campaign finance laws in order to hide their connection with Liccardo's campaign.[82]

Post-recount results

[edit]
2024 California's 16th congressional district primary[83][84]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticSam Liccardo38,49221.1−0.005
DemocraticEvan Low30,26116.6+0.002
DemocraticJoe Simitian30,25616.6−0.001
RepublicanPeter Ohtaki23,28312.8+0.001
DemocraticPeter Dixon14,6778.1−0.000
DemocraticRishi Kumar12,3836.8+0.001
RepublicanKarl Ryan11,5636.3+0.001
DemocraticJulie Lythcott-Haims11,3866.2−0.000
DemocraticAhmed Mostafa5,8143.2+0.001
DemocraticGreg Tanaka2,4211.3−0.000
DemocraticJoby Bernstein1,6520.9+0.000
Total votes182,188100.0

Federal Election Commission complaint against Low campaign

[edit]

In October 2024, good-government group Defend the Vote[85] filed an FEC complaint against Low,[86] alleging that he had spent nearly $600,000[87] from his state campaign account on ads that were distributed across the congressional district. Defend the Vote argued that the move violated federal campaign finance laws,[88] as state campaigns can accept higher individual contributions than federal campaigns, and can receive political action committee and corporation donations directly.

In wake of the expenditures, an attorney for Liccardo sent cease and desist letters[87] to five TV stations that broadcast the ads. TheMercury News Editorial Board reaffirmed their endorsement of Liccardo,[89] criticizing Low for "putting political self-interest ahead of campaign integrity."

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[90]Solid DFebruary 2, 2023
Inside Elections[91]Solid DMarch 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[92]Safe DFebruary 23, 2023
Elections Daily[93]Safe DFebruary 5, 2024
CNalysis[94]Solid DNovember 16, 2023

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Sam Liccardo (D)
Organizations
Evan Low (D)
Statewide officials
Organizations

Debates

[edit]
2024 California's 16th congressional district election debate
No.DateHostModeratorsLinkDemocraticDemocratic
Key:

 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W  Withdrawn

LiccardoLow
1October 11, 2024KNTV
KSTS
KQED
Raj MathaiYouTubePP

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[i]
Margin
of error
Sam
Liccardo (D)
Evan
Low (D)
Undecided
USC/CSU[98][D]September 14–21, 2024544 (LV)± 4.2%44%27%30%[m]
EMC Research[99][E]September 5–10, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%45%7%
Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies (D)[100][D]September 4–7, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%42%28%30%
Tulchin Research (D)[101][F]July 23–29, 2024500 (LV)± 4.38%30%29%41%
Lake Research Partners (D)[102][G]June 24–27, 2024600 (LV)39%28%33%
Lake Research Partners (D)[103][G]April 5–8, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%36%26%38%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[i]
Margin
of error
Sam
Liccardo (D)
Evan
Low (D)
Joe
Simitian (D)
Undecided
Lake Research Partners (D)[104][G]April 5–8, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%26%21%20%24%

Results

[edit]
2024 California's 16th congressional district general election
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticSam Liccardo179,39658.2%
DemocraticEvan Low128,76041.8%
Total votes308,156100.0%
Democratichold

By county

[edit]
County[105]Sam Liccardo
Democratic
Evan Low
Democratic
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%
San Mateo (part)36,54062.27%22,14237.73%14,39824.54%58,682
Santa Clara (part)143,04357.26%106,75142.74%36,29214.53%249,794
Totals179,58358.22%128,89341.78%50,69016.43%308,476

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^In the2016 California's 62nd State Assembly district election, incumbent AssemblymemberAutumn Burke faced off against two write-in candidates who tied with 32 primary votes each.[5]
  2. ^This district was numbered as the 18th district prior to the2020 redistricting cycle.
  3. ^$3,000 of this total was self-funded by Bernstein
  4. ^$1,400,000 of this total was self-funded by Dixon
  5. ^$15,000 of this total was self-funded by Kumar
  6. ^$13,661 of this total was self-funded by Low
  7. ^$13,182 of this total was self-funded by Tanaka
  8. ^$40,000 of this total was self-funded by Ohtaki
  9. ^abcKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  10. ^Peter Dixon (D) with 4.3%; Ahmed Mostafa (D) and Greg Tanaka (D) each with 2.3%; Joby Bernstein with 0.5%
  11. ^Joby Bernstein (D), Peter Dixon (D), Ahmed Mostafa (D), and Greg Tanaka (D) with 0%; "Other" with 2%
  12. ^Sally Lieber (D) with 7%; Josh Becker (D) with 4%; Joby Bernstein (D) with 1%
  13. ^"Won't vote" with 7%

Partisan clients

  1. ^Poll commissioned by San Jose Spotlight
  2. ^Poll commissioned by U.S. Term Limits. Evan Low has signed the group's term-limits pledge.
  3. ^Poll commissioned by supporters of Sam Liccardo
  4. ^abPoll sponsored by Neighbors for Results PAC, which supports Sam Liccardo
  5. ^Poll sponsored by Equality California, which supports Low's campaign
  6. ^Poll sponsored by Low's campaign
  7. ^abcPoll sponsored by Liccardo's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Daily Kos Elections congressional district geographic descriptions & largest places (119th Congress)".Daily Kos. RetrievedMarch 4, 2024.
  2. ^Nir, David (November 14, 2022)."Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020".Daily Kos. RetrievedApril 4, 2024.
  3. ^"2022 National House Vote Tracker".Cook Political Report.Archived from the original on November 24, 2023. RetrievedNovember 27, 2023.
  4. ^abAdragna, Anthony (November 21, 2023)."Veteran California Democrat Anna Eshoo plans to leave Congress, marking retirement record".Politico.Archived from the original on November 21, 2023. RetrievedNovember 21, 2023.
  5. ^abcdeWick, Julia (April 3, 2024)."Every vote counts in Silicon Valley, where two congressional candidates literally tied for second place".Los Angeles Times.
  6. ^abMarzorati, Guy (April 9, 2024)."Requests for Recount Could Upend Silicon Valley Race for Congress".KQED. RetrievedApril 10, 2024.
  7. ^abHase, Grace (May 1, 2024)."Congressional Recount: Evan Low heads to November election as Joe Simitian is knocked off the ballot".The Mercury News. RetrievedMay 1, 2024.
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  11. ^Pho, Brandon (November 7, 2024)."Evan Low concedes Silicon Valley congressional race to Sam Liccardo".San José Spotlight. RetrievedNovember 8, 2024.
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  63. ^"Endorsements".UFW.Archived from the original on September 11, 2023. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2024.
  64. ^"Editorial: Simitian best choice for Congress".Palo Alto Daily Post. March 4, 2024.Archived from the original on March 8, 2024. RetrievedMarch 5, 2024.
  65. ^Problosky Research
  66. ^RMG Research
  67. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  68. ^"U.S. House of Representatives District 16 - Districtwide Results".California Secretary of State. March 22, 2024. RetrievedMarch 24, 2024.
  69. ^Hase, Grace (April 4, 2024)."It's official: Counties certify results to send Liccardo, Low and Simitian to the general election".The Mercury News. Archived fromthe original on April 5, 2024.
  70. ^Sheyner, Gennady (April 3, 2024)."Three to go to Congressional general election in November".Palo Alto Weekly. RetrievedApril 4, 2024.
  71. ^Kadah, Jana (April 8, 2024)."Mysterious Silicon Valley poll in congressional race could signal recount".San José Spotlight. RetrievedApril 10, 2024.
  72. ^abMarzorati, Guy (April 15, 2024)."Silicon Valley Readies for Low-Simitian House Race Recount — but How Does It Work?".KQED. RetrievedApril 15, 2024.
  73. ^Taylor, Sarah; Korte, Lara (April 9, 2024)."Tied California House race heading to a recount".Politico. RetrievedApril 10, 2024.
  74. ^Giwargis, Ramona (April 10, 2024)."Silicon Valley Rep. Eshoo demands transparency in recount".San José Spotlight. RetrievedApril 10, 2024.
  75. ^Taylor, Sarah Grace (April 10, 2024)."Wait ... who's calling for a recount in the tied House election?".Politico. RetrievedApril 11, 2024.
  76. ^abStein, Shira (April 10, 2024)."An unusual Bay Area House race just got even weirder".San Francisco Chronicle. RetrievedApril 11, 2024.
  77. ^Hase, Grace (April 12, 2024)."With money put up for recount request, Congressional District 16 race is officially back on".The Mercury News. RetrievedApril 15, 2024.
  78. ^Moran, Jocelyn (April 17, 2024)."Questions linger about who is paying for recount in District 16 congressional race".NBC Bay Area. RetrievedApril 16, 2024.
  79. ^Kadah, Jana (April 19, 2024)."Federal complaint filed against San Jose congressional candidate Sam Liccardo".San José Spotlight. RetrievedApril 19, 2024.
  80. ^Rubashkin, Jacob [@JacobRubashkin] (May 2, 2024)."A day after the CA-16 recount concluded with Evan Low just squeezing out Joe Simitian for the second general election spot, the Sam Liccardo campaign publicizes an early April Lake Research poll showing Liccardo leading Low, 36-26, in a head to head matchup. All are Democrats" (Tweet). RetrievedMay 2, 2024 – viaTwitter.
  81. ^Hase, Grace (May 20, 2024)."Super PAC funded by Michael Bloomberg helped pay for Congressional District 16 recount".East Bay Times. RetrievedMay 20, 2024.
  82. ^Pho, Brandon (May 22, 2024)."Ex-San Jose mayor hit with second federal elections complaint".San José Spotlight. RetrievedMay 22, 2024.
  83. ^"Final Recount Results (4/30/24)". Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters. RetrievedMay 1, 2024.
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  85. ^Brian@wedefendthevote.org (October 2, 2024)."Defend The Vote Files FEC Complaint Against Evan Low".Defend The Vote. RetrievedOctober 16, 2024.
  86. ^"Evan Low hit with FEC complaint accusing him of illegally using money from his state campaign account for his congressional bid".The Mercury News. October 2, 2024. RetrievedOctober 16, 2024.
  87. ^ab"Sam Liccardo's attorney sends cease and desist letters to TV stations airing 'illegal campaign advertisements' for Evan Low".The Mercury News. October 10, 2024. RetrievedOctober 16, 2024.
  88. ^"Defend the Vote Adds More Beef to its FEC Complaint Against Evan Low".San Jose Inside. October 8, 2024. RetrievedOctober 16, 2024.
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  95. ^"NewDems Endorse Five Candidates from Alabama to California".NewDem Action Fund. May 24, 2024. RetrievedMay 26, 2024.
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  97. ^Taylor, Sarah (May 15, 2024)."Exclusive: Dems vote to endorse Evan Low".Politico. RetrievedMay 16, 2024.
  98. ^USC/CSU
  99. ^EMC Research
  100. ^Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies (D)
  101. ^Tulchin Research (D)
  102. ^Lake Research Partners (D)
  103. ^Lake Research Partners (D)
  104. ^Lake Research Partners (D)
  105. ^Weber, Shirley (December 13, 2024)."United States Representative in Congress by District"(PDF).Secretary of State of California.Archived(PDF) from the original on August 15, 2025. RetrievedOctober 5, 2025.

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