On 10 March 2022 at 23:01CET, an unidentifiedSoviet-madeTupolev Tu-141reconnaissanceunmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) crashed inZagreb, the capital ofCroatia. With an unidentified operator and unknown destination, the origin of the drone is presumed to be connected to military actions during theRussian invasion of Ukraine. The drone's flight over Croatia, Hungary and Romania (all three beingNATO states) prompted criticism of the countries' defense systems as the UAV was detected but not cleared. In response, the Croatian governmentrestricted airspace over populous cities and received military support from France and the United States who dispatched multiple fighter-jets to Croatia days later forjoint exercises.[1][2]
The Tupolev Tu-141 "Strizh" is aSoviet-era unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) developed in the late 1970s.[3][4][5] Weighing nearly six tons, it is launched from a truck-mounted platform with a pre-programmed flight path. Upon mission completion, the drone deploys parachutes for recovery and reuse. Its operational range is approximately 1,000 km (620 mi).[6][7]
During the2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Tu-141 was repurposed by Ukrainian forces for long-range reconnaissance and strike missions. Notably, in December 2022, modified Tu-141 drones were reportedly used in attacks on Russian airbases atRyazan andEngels, causing casualties and damaging aircraft.[8][9][10]
At the time of the Zagreb crash, Ukraine was experiencing intense Russian missile and drone attacks, including strikes onKyiv that resulted in civilian casualties.[11]
The unmanned aerial vehicle enteredRomanian airspace around 23:23EET, where it was observed by theRomanian Air Force and flew for 3 minutes.[12] Afterwards, it continued flying throughHungarian airspace for the next 40 minutes at about 1,000 metres (3,300 ft) altitude, where it was also observed by theHungarian Air Force.[13][14] It then enteredCroatian airspace flying at a speed of 700 km/h (380 kn; 430 mph) and altitude of 1,300 metres (4,300 ft),[15] where it was picked up byCroatian military radar.[16] After spending seven minutes in Croatian airspace, it crashed in theJarun neighborhood of the capital, some 50 m (160 ft) away from the Stjepan Radić Student Residence Hall ofZagreb University. The impact damaged 96 cars parked nearby[14] and woke up students residing in the university dormitory.[17][18][19]
Croatian civil and military police quickly sealed off the crash perimeter. The next morning, American analyst Tyler Rogoway identified the aircraft to most likely be aSoviet era Tupolev Tu-141,[3] which was corroborated byCyrillic inscriptions andred star insignia found on the scattered debris near the crash site. There were also several parachutes hanging on the nearby trees.[22] Throughout 12 March,Croatian Army continued the excavation of a remaining major part of the debris, which was wedged into the ground.[23] The debris was taken to a secret location.[24] On the same day, the head of the military police ofCroatian Army Chief of Staff brigadier Vlado Kovačević said that the aircraft'sblack box was recovered and that some fragments point to the possibility that the aircraft was also carrying anexplosive device.[25]
In an interview on 13 March, theCroatian Minister of DefenceMario Banožić confirmed that parts belonging to an explosive device were found in the debris of the drone.[26] He also added that the weight of the explosive could have been up to 120 kg.[27][18]
Prime Minister of CroatiaAndrej Plenković remarked to the media on 17 March that the UAV flew to Croatia because Romanian and Hungarian radars did not identify the incoming object as a real threat, due to the fact that there were several false alarms in the days before the incident and it was thought that it was aglitch. Given the fact that neither Romanian or Hungarian radars reported the object,NATO in turn could not order the interception of the UAV.[28]
The investigation report was presented on 13 April. A detailed analysis of its metal fragments showed that the drone carried anOFAB-100-120 aerial bomb and had hit the ground because of parachute failure. However, no traces of military explosives, such asTrinitrotoluene (TNT), were found on it. The bomb was charged by unconventional organic powder.[14][30] On 30 November 2022, while answering questions in parliament, defense minister Banožić revealed thatNATO member states whose territories were overflown by the drone had proclaimed the drone operator a state secret.[31][32]
The slow or non-existent reaction from air defence services caused outrage among the Croatian media and public,[33][34] with some comparing the incident toMathias Rust's flight to theRed Square in 1987.[35]
President of CroatiaZoran Milanović described the crash as "a serious incident" and added that "in such situations you depend on NATO [...] while there was obviously some failure there". The President said Croatia knew where the drone flew from, "evidently Ukraine to Zagreb".[36][37]
Prime Minister Plenković said on 12 March that "[t]his is a real threat. NATO and theEU were supposed to react. We will not tolerate such [a] situation [...] we were very lucky. This could have fallen on anuclear power plant in Hungary." He also announced that he had written a letter to theSecretary General of NATOJens Stoltenberg regarding the situation.[38]
TheMayor of Zagreb,Tomislav Tomašević, held a press conference regarding the incident and commented that "no people were hurt during the impact, but there is some property damage".[39] On 12 March 2022, Tomašević criticized certain unnamed foreign media sources for allegedly misrepresenting the location of the crash site. He stated: "I must admit that I am quite bothered by the information in foreign media sources, where I have read that such a large military aircraft had crashed in the suburbs of Zagreb, or that it had crashed next to Zagreb. No, it did not crash next to Zagreb, it crashed in the centre of Zagreb, in a densely populated area, and it did not crash in any type of suburban area."[40][41][42]
The Croatian online newspaperIndex.hr suggested the drone may have been meant to fly to a location in Ukraine calledYarun' rather than the Zagreb neighborhood of Jarun, which sounds similar.[43][44]
On 12 March, the Croatian daily newspaperJutarnji list wrote that Croatia might ask theUnited States to deploy theirPatriot missile systems in the country.[46] Croatian military expert and former defence minister deputy Nikola Brzica commented, "Armed Forces of Croatia have at least two systems in their inventory, which could have brought down such a simple target, yet they weren't used. [...] It turns out that neither us [Croatians], nor Hungarians, nor Romanians properly tracked that target, nor contacted others and this is a big problem for NATO's air defence".[47]
TheRussian Embassy in Zagreb also denied ownership of the crashed drone, stating that "the drone was produced on the territory of Ukraine" and that Russian Armed Forces had not used such drones since 1991.[50][51]
The Secretary General of NATOJens Stoltenberg claimed that the drone that crashed in Croatia was unarmed and the crash did not constitute an armed attack.[53]
On 17 March 2022,Ukrainian Minister of DefenceOleksii Reznikov continued to insist that Ukrainians were "not the ones who launched that drone towards Croatia"; he also expressed incomprehension of NATO's apparent failure to prevent the incident, saying: "The drone flew over several member states. How come you didn't see it? Why didn't you destroy it? Can you cover your own airspace?".[56]
As a result of the drone crash, the Croatian government decided to urgently acquiresurface-to-air missile (SAM) systems.[57] According to Croatian media reports, French-madeMistral andVL MICA Systems were acquired by the country.[58][59][60]
TheHungarian Air Force first detected and tracked the aircraft after it had passed through Romanian airspace late in the evening of March 10. The next day, the Air Force further detected another suspicious radar signal around noon. HungarianGripen fighters took off fromKecskemét air base but found no suspicious flying object. Another incident occurred during the afternoon later that day prompting fighters to be scrambled but they likewise did not find any suspicious flying objects.[61]
On 13 March, just three days after the event in Zagreb, a drone crashed in theTărpiu village close to theTransylvanian city ofBistrița in Romania. Unlike the UAV that crashed in Croatia, this one carried no armament. It was identified as a RussianOrlan-10 reconnaissance drone.[62][63][64] Like Croatia, Romania is also a NATO member and as such is under itssecurity umbrella.[65]
^"Priopćenje Ureda predsjednika Republike Hrvatske" [Press release of the Office of the President of the Republic of Croatia].Predsjednik Republike Hrvatske - Zoran Milanović.Archived from the original on 15 March 2022. Retrieved16 March 2022.
