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2022 Vermont gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

2022 Vermont gubernatorial election
← 2020
November 8, 2022
2024 →
Turnout57.62%Decrease
 
NomineePhil ScottBrenda Siegel
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
AllianceProgressive
Popular vote202,14768,248
Percentage70.91%23.94%
County results
Municipality results
Precinct results
Scott:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Siegel:     50–60%
     No votes
Governor before election

Phil Scott
Republican

ElectedGovernor

Phil Scott
Republican

Elections in Vermont
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The2022 Vermont gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect thegovernor of Vermont. IncumbentRepublican governorPhil Scott won re-election to a fourth term in alandslide, defeatingDemocratic nominee Brenda Siegel.[1][2]

This race was one of six Republican-held governorships up for election in 2022 in a state carried byJoe Biden in the2020 presidential election. During the 2022 season, Scott enjoyed one of the highest approval ratings of any governor in the nation, and was expected to easily win reelection. As such, he carried every municipality in the state, this time with the largest margin in a Vermont gubernatorial race sinceHoward Dean's landslide in1996. Scott's 47-point victory margin was the largest for a Republican candidate since1950, even while Democratic congressmanPeter Welch won the concurrentU.S. Senate election by a 40-point margin. This was the second-most lopsided gubernatorial election of the 2022 cycle, only behind theelection in Wyoming.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Stephen Bellows, landscaping contractor[3]
  • Peter Duval, engineer and formerUnderhill selectman[4]

Declined

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Scott
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results[5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanPhil Scott (incumbent)20,31968.56%
RepublicanStephen C. Bellows5,40218.22%
RepublicanPeter Duval3,62712.24%
Write-in2900.98%
Total votes29,638100.0%

Progressive primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Withdrew after winning primary

[edit]

Replacement nominee

[edit]
  • Brenda Siegel, nonprofit executive, candidate for governor in2018, and candidate for lieutenant governor in2020(cross-endorsement of Democratic nominee)[8][6][7]

Results

[edit]
Progressive primary results[5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
ProgressiveSusan Hatch Davis47087.36%
Write-in6812.64%
Total votes538100.0%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Brenda Siegel, nonprofit executive, candidate for governor in2018, and candidate for lieutenant governor in2020[9][10]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Brenda Siegel

Federal politicians

State politicians

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticBrenda Siegel56,28785.92%
Write-in9,22714.08%
Total votes65,514100.0%

Independents

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Candidates

[edit]

Declared

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Write-ins

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Due to Vermont's completely unrestrictedwrite-in laws, many high school students across the United States were legally able to run for governor.

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

General election

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Predictions

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SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[17]Solid RMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections[18]Solid RJuly 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19]Safe RAugust 18, 2022
Politico[20]Solid RNovember 3, 2022
RCP[21]Safe RNovember 1, 2022
Fox News[22]Solid RAugust 22, 2022
538[23]Solid RAugust 26, 2022
Elections Daily[24]Safe RNovember 7, 2022

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Phil
Scott (R)		Brenda
Siegel (D/P)		OtherUndecided
Data for Progress (D)[25]October 21–26, 20221,039 (LV)± 3.0%65%24%5%[c]6%
University of New Hampshire[26]September 29 – October 3, 2022865 (LV)± 3.5%48%31%9%[d]13%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[27]September 3–7, 20221,072 (LV)± 2.9%68%15%5%12%
University of New Hampshire[28]July 21–25, 2022651 (LV)± 3.8%60%16%8%[e]16%
Hypothetical polling

Phil Scott vs. generic opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Phil
Scott (R)		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
University of New Hampshire[29]April 14–18, 2022583 (LV)± 4.1%50%25%24%

Results

[edit]
Margin swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +0−2.5%
  •   Republican — +0−2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5−5%
  •   Republican — +5−7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5−10%
  •   Republican — +10−12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5−15%
2022 Vermont gubernatorial election[30]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanPhil Scott (incumbent)202,14770.91%+0.75
Democratic/ProgressiveBrenda Siegel[f]68,24823.94%
IndependentKevin Hoyt6,0222.06%+0.80
IndependentPeter Duval4,7231.62%N/A
IndependentBernard Peters2,3150.79%N/A
Write-in1,3460.46%+0.02
Total votes284,801100%
Rejected ballots255
Blank ballots6,899
Turnout291,95557.62%
Registered electors506,666
Republicanhold

By county

[edit]
By county
CountyPhil Scott
Republican		Brenda Siegel
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties
#%#%#%
Addison12,85671.45%4,44724.72%6903.83%
Bennington10,64267.24%3,74123.64%1,4449.12%
Caledonia9,50774.51%2,42519.0%8286.49%
Chittenden52,21568.88%21,19327.96%2,4013.16%
Essex1,88079.16%31413.22%1817.62%
Franklin15,66779.53%2,74113.91%1,2916.56%
Grand Isle3,11578.78%65416.54%1854.68%
Lamoille8,62575.21%2,31720.2%5264.59%
Orange10,01372.36%3,13722.67%6874.97%
Orleans7,84073.62%1,75516.48%1,0549.9%
Rutland20,13477.03%4,30716.48%1,6966.49%
Washington18,93868.07%7,79928.03%1,0863.9%
Windham11,73759.7%6,88735.03%1,0355.27%
Windsor18,97870.78%6,53124.36%1,3024.86%
Totals202,14770.98%68,24823.96%14,4065.06%

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in2012 and2018;Democratic candidate forAttorney General in2014 and2016; Republican nominee for Attorney General in2018 and2020; Democratic candidate for Governor in2014 and2016; Republican nominee forSecretary of State in2018 and2020; Republican candidate for the US House in2018; Republican candidate forAuditor of Accounts in2018.
  2. ^abKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^Hoyt (I) with 3%; Duval (I) with 1%; Peters (I) with 1%
  4. ^Hoyt and Duval with 3%; Peters with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  5. ^Davis and "Other" with 4%
  6. ^Candidate received the nominations of both the Democratic and Progressive parties and will be listed on the ballot as "Democratic/Progressive" (candidate is primarily a Democrat).

References

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  1. ^abCutler, Calvin (May 17, 2022)."Phil Scott to seek 4th term as Vermont governor".WCAX-TV.Archived from the original on May 17, 2022. RetrievedMay 17, 2022.
  2. ^"Brenda Siegel wins Democratic nomination for Governor | Vermont Business Magazine".vermontbiz.com. RetrievedOctober 17, 2022.
  3. ^"2022 Primary Candidate Listing". Vermont Secretary of State. RetrievedMay 9, 2022.
  4. ^abc"Buckle up: Vermont's Robust August Primary Contests Take Shape".
  5. ^abc"2022 August Primary Federal and Statewide Office Canvass Report"(PDF).Vermont Secretary of State.
  6. ^abcde"General Election Candidates".sos.vermont.gov. RetrievedAugust 30, 2022.
  7. ^abCutler, Calvin (August 25, 2022)."Three Vt. Democratic primary winners to run as fusion candidates".wcax.com. RetrievedAugust 30, 2022.
  8. ^"General Election 2022".The Vermont Progressive Party. RetrievedAugust 30, 2022.
  9. ^abCutler, Calvin (March 4, 2022)."Vt. Democrats testing the waters for Gov. Scott challenge".WCAX.com.
  10. ^Mearhoff, Sarah (May 2, 2022)."Vermont activist Brenda Siegel launches Democratic bid for governor".VTDigger.
  11. ^abcdGunzburger, Ron."Politics1 - Online Guide to Vermont Politics".www.politics1.com. RetrievedJune 6, 2021.
  12. ^"Senate President Pro Tem Becca Balint to run for Congress | Vermont Business Magazine".Vermont Biz. December 13, 2021.
  13. ^"Lt. Gov. Molly Gray announces run for Vermont's sole US House seat".myNBC5.com. December 6, 2021. RetrievedDecember 6, 2021.
  14. ^"Racine Mulls Run for Governor".The Vermont Political Observer. February 21, 2022. RetrievedFebruary 24, 2022.
  15. ^abc"Brenda Siegel's odds of winning are long — but her message may still strike a chord". October 30, 2022.
  16. ^Hall, Dave (March 28, 2022)."14-year-old Nevada boy is running for governor in Vermont (because legally, he can)".Fox 5 Vegas.
  17. ^"2022 Governor Race Ratings".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2021.
  18. ^"Gubernatorial Ratings".Inside Elections. RetrievedFebruary 19, 2021.
  19. ^"2022 Gubernatorial race ratings".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedMarch 11, 2021.
  20. ^"Vermont Governor Race 2022".Politico. April 1, 2022.
  21. ^"2022 Governor Races".RCP. January 10, 2022. RetrievedJanuary 10, 2022.
  22. ^"2022 Election Forecast".Fox News. August 22, 2022. RetrievedAugust 22, 2022.
  23. ^"2022 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Archived fromthe original on June 30, 2022. RetrievedJune 30, 2022.
  24. ^Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022)."Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings".Elections Daily. RetrievedNovember 28, 2022.
  25. ^Data for Progress (D)
  26. ^University of New Hampshire
  27. ^The Trafalgar Group (R)
  28. ^University of New Hampshire
  29. ^University of New Hampshire
  30. ^"2022 General Election Canvass Report"(PDF).Vermont Secretary of State. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on November 19, 2022. RetrievedNovember 19, 2022.

External links

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