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2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Not to be confused with2022 Kentucky Senate election.
2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky

← 2016November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08)2028 →
 
NomineeRand PaulCharles Booker
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote913,326564,311
Percentage61.80%38.19%

County results
Congressional district results
Paul:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Booker:     50–60%     60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Rand Paul
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Rand Paul
Republican

Elections in Kentucky
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The2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to representKentucky. IncumbentRepublicanRand Paul won re-election to a third term, defeatingDemocratic nomineeCharles Booker with 61.8% of the vote.

Paul was first elected in2010 with 55.7% of the vote, filling the seat of retiringJim Bunning, then re-elected in2016 with 57.3% of the vote. Paul ran for a third term.[1] Booker is a former state representative, and was a candidate in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in2020. The election was called for Paul shortly after polls closed in the state.[2]

This was the biggest landslide victory for a U.S. Senate race in Kentucky sinceMitch McConnell's win in2002.

Background

[edit]

AlthoughRand Paul supported a constitutional amendment limiting senators to two terms, he said, "I'm not in favor of term limits for some and not others. So I'm not in favor of people self-imposing term limits. I'm a co-sponsor of the constitutional amendment, but I will run again in 2022."[1] Kentucky held its primary election on May 17.[3]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Arnold Blankenship, retiree[5]
  • Valerie Frederick[5]
  • Paul V. Hamilton, economics professor[6]
  • John Schiess, perennial candidate[5]
  • Tami Stanfield, former sales executive[5]

Endorsements

[edit]
Rand Paul

Executive branch officials

Statewide officials

Organizations

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Paul
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Republican primary results[12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanRand Paul (incumbent)333,05186.35%
RepublicanValerie Frederick14,0183.63%
RepublicanPaul V. Hamilton13,4733.49%
RepublicanArnold Blankenship10,0922.62%
RepublicanTami Stanfield9,5262.47%
RepublicanJohn Schiess5,5381.44%
Total votes385,698100.0%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Joshua Blanton Sr., Army veteran[14]
  • Ruth Gao, educator and activist[15]
  • John Merrill, chemist and Navy veteran[5]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Charles Booker

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Labor unions

Organizations

Individuals

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Booker
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Blanton
  •   40–50%
  Merrill
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results[12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticCharles Booker214,24573.29%
DemocraticJoshua Blanton Sr.30,98010.60%
DemocraticJohn Merrill28,9319.90%
DemocraticRuth Gao18,1546.21%
Total votes292,310100.0%

General election

[edit]

Although Paul had initially pledged to serve only one term,[33] he later reversed this stance and ran for re-election.[34] In both2010 and2016, he faced tight races, even as these years were generally unfavorable for the Democratic Party and Kentucky's conservative partisan lean. Paul had gained a reputation as one of the most libertarian senators and often breaks with his party despite still holding conservative views on most issues.[35][36]

Following a narrow primary defeat toAmy McGrath in the2020 Kentucky Senate Democratic primaries, State Representative Charles Booker announced his intention to run again, this time against Paul.[37] Booker positioned himself as a progressive populist, advocating for abortion rights, Universal Basic Income, Medicare for All, and a Green New Deal.[38] He aimed to resonate with traditional Democratic voters in the urban centers of Louisville and Lexington, while also reaching out to ancestral Democrats in Kentucky's Appalachian region.[39]

An early February poll showed Paul leading by only a few points against a generic Democrat.[40] However, a later poll revealed Paul had a substantial lead over Booker.[41] In October, a debate was scheduled to include both Paul and Booker, but Paul did not respond to the invitation, resulting in Booker debating alone.[42]

Paul went on to easily win re-election, improving his 2016 performance by approximately 9 percentage points. However, due to lower voter turnout, he underperformed compared toTrump's 2020 performance in the state by 2 points and received a slightly smaller percentage of the vote.

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[43]Solid RNovember 19, 2021
Inside Elections[44]Solid RJanuary 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[45]Safe RNovember 3, 2021
Politico[46]Solid ROctober 18, 2022
RCP[47]Safe RJanuary 10, 2022
Fox News[48]Solid RMay 12, 2022
DDHQ[49]Solid RJuly 20, 2022
538[50]Solid RJune 30, 2022
The Economist[51]Safe RSeptember 7, 2022

Endorsements

[edit]
Rand Paul (R)

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

Sheriffs

Organizations

Charles Booker (D)

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

Newspapers

Labor unions

Organizations

Individuals

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Rand
Paul (R)
Charles
Booker (D)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon[67]January 19–22, 2022625 (RV)± 4.0%55%39%6%
Hypothetical polling

Rand Paul vs. generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Rand
Paul (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Mason-Dixon[68]February 1–4, 2021625 (RV)± 4.0%47%41%12%

Results

[edit]
2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky[69]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanRand Paul (incumbent)913,32661.80%+4.53%
DemocraticCharles Booker564,31138.19%−4.54%
Write-in1930.01%+0.01%
Total votes1,477,830100.0%N/A
Republicanhold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Paul won five of six congressional districts.[70]

DistrictPaulBookerRepresentative
1st71%29%James Comer
2nd68%32%Brett Guthrie
3rd40%60%John Yarmuth (117th Congress)
Morgan McGarvey (118th Congress)
4th66%34%Thomas Massie
5th75%25%Hal Rogers
6th54%46%Andy Barr

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

[edit]
  1. ^abcDean, Kelly (February 25, 2021)."Sen. Rand Paul discusses upcoming plans for re-election 2022".WBKO.Archived from the original on February 27, 2021. RetrievedMarch 6, 2021.
  2. ^"Rand Paul reelected for third term".WKYT. November 9, 2022. RetrievedNovember 9, 2022.
  3. ^WLKY Digital Team (May 10, 2022)."Voter guide: Kentucky primary election 2022". Wlky.com. RetrievedMay 27, 2022.
  4. ^"Sen. Rand Paul announces he has filed for re-election".WBKO. January 5, 2022.
  5. ^abcde"Election Candidate Filings".Kentucky Secretary of State. RetrievedJanuary 7, 2022.
  6. ^"Kentucky Secretary of State - Candidate Filings".Kentucky Secretary of State - Candidate Filings. RetrievedJanuary 28, 2022.
  7. ^abKobin, Bill (April 9, 2021)."Donald Trump endorses Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul for 2022 reelection".The Courier-Journal. RetrievedJuly 1, 2021.
  8. ^ab"I was proud to speak at Senator @RandPaul's campaign kickoff event in Oldham County tonight! Let's Stand with Rand & help send a Republican Senate Majority to D.C. this year".Twitter. April 30, 2022. RetrievedOctober 28, 2022.
  9. ^ab"Club for Growth PAC Endorsed Candidates". RetrievedJanuary 28, 2022.
  10. ^ab"FreedomWorks for America Endorses Rand Paul in the Kentucky U.S. Senate Race".www.freedomworksforamerica.org. August 25, 2021. RetrievedJanuary 10, 2022.
  11. ^ab"Turning Point Action".Turning Point Action - Endorsements. RetrievedJanuary 28, 2022.
  12. ^ab"May 17, 2022 Official 2022 Primary Election Results"(PDF).Secretary of State of Kentucky. RetrievedSeptember 1, 2022.
  13. ^"It's official: Charles Booker will run for Senate again, this time against Rand Paul".WLKY. July 1, 2021. RetrievedJuly 1, 2021.
  14. ^Smith, Lawrence (June 30, 2021)."Democrats begin lining up for right to challenge Sen. Rand Paul".WDRB. RetrievedJuly 31, 2021.
  15. ^"Ruth Gao announces U.S. Senate run in Kentucky, aims to become 'first millennial woman Senator'".WLEX-TV. June 30, 2021. RetrievedJuly 1, 2021.
  16. ^"Political Notebook: Could Rocky Adkins be Kentucky's Joe Manchin in 2022 Senate race?".Lexington Herald-Leader. April 15, 2021. RetrievedApril 21, 2021.
  17. ^"Room for a Moderate Democrat in 2022 U.S. Senate Primary".Kentucky Fried Politics. July 9, 2021. RetrievedSeptember 23, 2021.
  18. ^abBreon Martin (May 2, 2021)."US Sen. Bernie Sanders holds rally with Charles Booker in Louisville". WDRB.
  19. ^abMorgan Watkins (July 26, 2021)."Sen. Elizabeth Warren endorses Charles Booker in bid for Rand Paul's Senate seat".Courier Journal.
  20. ^ab"Rep. John Yarmuth backs Charles Booker in his bid to unseat Sen. Rand Paul".The Courier-Journal. November 11, 2021. RetrievedNovember 11, 2021.
  21. ^abcd"Charles Booker picks up major union endorsement in run for U.S. Senate". WLKY. July 21, 2021. RetrievedMarch 25, 2022.
  22. ^abCraig, Berry (March 4, 2022)."State AFL-CIO backs Booker, McGarvey".Forward Kentucky. RetrievedMarch 8, 2022.
  23. ^ab"Our Recommended Candidates".educationvotes.nea.org.National Education Association.
  24. ^ab"BNC Endorses Charles Booker!".Brand New Congress. Archived fromthe original on August 4, 2021. RetrievedAugust 4, 2021.
  25. ^abSimpson, Yvette (July 1, 2021)."Democracy for America : DFA backs Charles Booker for 2022 Senate rematch in Kentucky".democracyforamerica.com. Democracy for America.
  26. ^ab"Endorsed Candidates".indivisible.org.Indivisible. September 21, 2018. RetrievedMay 20, 2022.
  27. ^ab"LCV ACTION FUND ANNOUNCES FIRST ROUND OF NON-INCUMBENT SENATE ENDORSEMENTS".www.lcv.org. February 2, 2022. RetrievedFebruary 2, 2022.
  28. ^ab"Endorsements".March On. December 6, 2021. Archived fromthe original on October 31, 2022. RetrievedFebruary 20, 2022.
  29. ^ab"Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates".www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. RetrievedDecember 22, 2021.
  30. ^ab"Sunrise Movement endorses progressive Democrats Summer Lee, Nida Allam and Erica Smith for Congress". March 24, 2022. Archived fromthe original on March 24, 2022. RetrievedMarch 25, 2022.
  31. ^ab"Our Candidates".Working Families Party.
  32. ^abScott Recker (October 15, 2021)."Civil Rights Attorney Ben Crump Endorses Charles Booker For Senate".LEO Weekly.
  33. ^Selleck, Stacey (September 28, 2015)."Rand Paul Signs U.S. Term Limits Pledge - U.S. Term Limits". RetrievedJune 30, 2024.
  34. ^"Sen. Rand Paul officially files for re-election".spectrumnews1.com. RetrievedJune 30, 2024.
  35. ^Willis, Derek (August 12, 2015)."Votes Against Party by Rand Paul (R-Ky.)".ProPublica. RetrievedJune 30, 2024.
  36. ^"Rand Paul on the Issues".www.ontheissues.org. RetrievedJune 30, 2024.
  37. ^Sonka, Joe."Charles Booker makes it official, announces run for US Senate seat held by Rand Paul".The Courier-Journal. RetrievedJune 30, 2024.
  38. ^"Charles Booker on the Issues".www.ontheissues.org. RetrievedJune 30, 2024.
  39. ^"Stand up for Kentucky Coal Miners".Charles Booker For U.S. Senate. RetrievedJune 30, 2024.
  40. ^Watkins, Morgan."Mason-Dixon poll: Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul is in good shape for reelection next year".The Courier-Journal. RetrievedJune 30, 2024.
  41. ^"2022 Kentucky Senate - Paul vs. Booker | RealClearPolling".www.realclearpolling.com. RetrievedJune 30, 2024.
  42. ^"Rand Paul declines to debate Charles Booker on KET".Louisville Public Media. September 30, 2022. RetrievedJune 30, 2024.
  43. ^"2022 Senate Race ratings".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2021.
  44. ^"Senate ratings".Inside Elections. RetrievedJanuary 18, 2021.
  45. ^"2022 Senate".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedJanuary 28, 2021.
  46. ^"Kentucky Senate Race 2022".Politico. April 1, 2022.
  47. ^"Battle for the Senate 2022".RCP. January 10, 2022.
  48. ^"2022 Election Forecast".Fox News. May 12, 2022. RetrievedMay 12, 2022.
  49. ^"2022 Election Forecast".DDHQ. July 20, 2022. RetrievedJuly 20, 2022.
  50. ^"2022 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Archived fromthe original on June 30, 2022. RetrievedJune 30, 2022.
  51. ^"The Economist's 2022 Senate Election forecast".The Economist. September 18, 2022. RetrievedSeptember 18, 2022.
  52. ^Kobin, Bill (July 15, 2022)."Biden Drops Plan to Name Anti-Abortion Lawyer Backed by McConnell as Judge".The New York Times. RetrievedJuly 16, 2022.Mr. McConnell said he backed Mr. Paul's re-election bid this year.
  53. ^"Paul and Barr speak at Republican 'Boots and Bluegrass' event".www.richmondregister.com. October 24, 2022. RetrievedOctober 28, 2022.
  54. ^"Senator Rand Paul, Ag. Commissioner Ryan Quarles visit Hopkinsville".whopam.com. October 1, 2022. RetrievedOctober 28, 2022.
  55. ^abcdef"DR. RAND PAUL RECEIVES ENDORSEMENT FROM OWENSBORO AREA SHERIFFS, RELEASES AD ON DEFENDING LAW ENFORCEMENT".randpaul.com. October 11, 2022. RetrievedOctober 28, 2022.
  56. ^abcdefgh"Rand Paul's Ratings and Endorsements".justfacts.votesmart.org. RetrievedOctober 11, 2022.
  57. ^"CCAGW PAC Endorses Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Four House Candidates".finance.yahoo.com. October 13, 2022. RetrievedOctober 28, 2022.
  58. ^Storm, Nick (September 12, 2022)."Rand Paul Endorsed by KY Fraternal Order of Police".www.kentuckyfried.com. RetrievedSeptember 13, 2022.
  59. ^"NRA-PVF - Grades - Kentucky".nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022.
  60. ^"Charles Booker's primary win was historic. But his Senate run against Rand Paul faces a tough road ahead". May 23, 2022.
  61. ^abcdeStorm, Nick (September 1, 2022)."Charles Booker Endorsed by Gov. Beshear & Former KY Governors".www.kentuckyfried.com.
  62. ^"The Herald-Leader endorses Charles Booker for Senate".amp.kentucky.com. October 21, 2022. RetrievedOctober 28, 2022.
  63. ^abcdefghij"Charles Booker's Ratings and Endorsements".justfacts.votesmart.org. RetrievedOctober 28, 2022.
  64. ^"LegalizeKY".
  65. ^"NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Charles Booker for U.S. Senate in Kentucky".NARAL Pro-Choice America. August 23, 2022. RetrievedOctober 28, 2022.
  66. ^"Congressional Endorsements".Sierra Club Independent Action.
  67. ^Mason-Dixon
  68. ^Mason-Dixon
  69. ^"November 8, 2022 - Official 2022 General Election Results"(PDF). Commonwealth of Kentucky State Board of Elections. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on December 24, 2022. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2023.
  70. ^Kentucky Senate Results by CD.docs.google.com (Report).

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[edit]

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