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| Elections in New Mexico |
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The2022 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the threeU.S. representatives from thestate ofNew Mexico, one from each of the state's threecongressional districts. The elections coincided with theNew Mexico gubernatorial election and variousstate and local elections. The Democratic party gained the 2nd Congressional seat, gaining unitary control of New Mexico's Congressional (House and Senate) delegation for the first time since 2018 and improving the advantage in the House delegation for New Mexico from 2–1 in favor of Democrats to 3–0.
In New Mexico, legislative and congressional maps must be passed by thestate legislature and are subject to aveto by thegovernor, which would require a two-thirdssupermajority in each house of the legislature tooverride. In April 2021, governorMichelle Lujan Grisham signed a bill passed by the legislature that established the seven-member New Mexico Citizen Redistricting Committee. The job of the committee is to draw three sets of legislative and congressional maps, which it then sends to the legislature for consideration. Current public officials and government employees are barred from serving on the committee. The committee's role is purely advisory and the legislature is free to alter or discard its proposals.[1]
On October 15, 2021, the redistricting committee voted to send 3 congressional maps to the legislature. The first would largely maintain the boundaries of the state's existing map. The second would increase Native American representation in the3rd congressional district to nearly 20% and Hispanic representation in the2nd district to 54%. This proposal was championed by the committee's chairmanEdward Chávez, formerChief Justice of theNew Mexico Supreme Court. The third, drawn by the Center for Civic Policy, would add liberal areas of the city ofAlbuquerque to the rural 2nd district.[2]
In the leadup to the2020 redistricting cycle, some suspected that the Democratic-controlled state legislature might alter the boundaries of the2nd congressional district to make it more favorable to the Democratic Party. The 2nd district was represented by DemocratXochitl Torres Small after she defeated RepublicanYvette Herrell in the2018 midterm elections, but she lost to Herrell in a2020 rematch. The day after Herrell's victory, DemocratBrian Egolf, theSpeaker of the New Mexico House of Representatives, pointed out that the 2nd district would inevitably be changed during redistricting and said "we'll have to see what that means for Republican chances to hold it." This statement was criticized bySteve Pearce, the chair of theNew Mexico Republican Party, who called it "political tricks."[3]
The district is mostly rural and dominated by theoil and natural gas industry.Carlsbad mayor Dale Janway expressed concern that portions of theAlbuquerque suburbs might be added to the district, which would dilute the influence of the rural communities in the district, including Carlsbad.[4] After the 2020 elections, the district held aPartisan Voting Index of R+8.[5]
On December 10, theNew Mexico Senate voted 25–15 to approve a congressional map drawn by Democratic state senatorJoseph Cervantes. This proposal largely resembles the third map submitted by the commission, adding portions of western and southernAlbuquerque to the2nd district and moving a portion of the conservative-leaning, oil-producing area of the 2nd district into the3rd district. These changes would increase the Hispanic majority in the 2nd district from 51% to 56% and decrease the percentage of Native Americans in the 3rd district from 20% to 16%. Republicans widely opposed the map, with GOP state senatorDavid Gallegos pointing out that the map combines the conservativeoilfield town ofHobbs with heavily DemocraticSanta Fe, which is hundreds of miles away, and GOP senatorCliff Pirtle claiming that the map represented an attempt by Democrats to control all 3 of New Mexico's House seats. Cervantes defended his map, saying he wished to "reimagine a New Mexico where our districts include rural and urban areas."[6][7][8][9] TheNew Mexico House of Representatives passed the map on December 12 in a 44–24 vote, and governor Lujan Grisham approved it on December 17.[10][11]
Dave Wasserman ofCook Political Report interpreted the new map as an attempt by Democrats to target Herrell while still protecting the representative of the 3rd district, DemocratTeresa Leger Fernandez. Under the new map, in the2020 presidential election, DemocratJoe Biden would have won the1st district by 14.5%, the 2nd by under 6%, and the 3rd by roughly 11%.[12] Under the previous map, Biden won the first district by 22.8% and the 3rd district by 17.6%, and lost the 2nd district to RepublicanDonald Trump by 11.8%.[13]
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County results Stansbury: 50–60% 60–70% Garcia Holmes: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
Precinct results Stansbury: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Garcia Holmes: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 1st district covers the center of the state, taking in the counties ofTorrance,Guadalupe,De Baca, andLincoln, as well as easternBernalillo County and most ofAlbuquerque.[14] DemocratDeb Haaland, who was re-elected with 58.2% of the vote in 2020,[15] resigned on March 16, 2021, after she was confirmed to become theU.S. Secretary of the Interior.[16] DemocratMelanie Stansbury won the June 1, 2021special election to finish her term with 60.4% of the vote.[17]
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Melanie Stansbury (incumbent) | 44,223 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 44,223 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Michelle Garcia Holmes | 25,822 | 58.7 | |
| Republican | Louie Sanchez | 18,171 | 41.3 | |
| Total votes | 43,993 | 100.0 | ||
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||||
| Garcia Holmes | Stansbury | |||||||
| 1[28] | October 14, 2022 | KOB 4 | Tessa Mentus & Matt Grubs | [29] | P | P | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[30] | Solid D | April 27, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[31] | Solid D | April 22, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] | Likely D | April 27, 2022 |
| Politico[33] | Likely D | April 18, 2022 |
| RCP[34] | Lean D | October 30, 2022 |
| Fox News[35] | Likely D | July 11, 2022 |
| DDHQ[36] | Likely D | July 20, 2022 |
| 538[37] | Solid D | June 30, 2022 |
| The Economist[38] | Likely D | September 28, 2022 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Melanie Stansbury (D) | Michelle Garcia Holmes (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[39] | October 25–28, 2022 | 372 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 40% | 2%[b] | 8% |
| 54% | 43% | 3%[c] | – | ||||
| Research & Polling Inc.[40] | October 20–27, 2022 | 410 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 48% | 42% | – | 9% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Melanie Stansbury (incumbent) | 156,462 | 55.8 | |
| Republican | Michelle Garcia Holmes | 124,151 | 44.2 | |
| Independent | Victoria Gonzales (write-in) | 58 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 280,671 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratichold | ||||
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Herrell: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80-90% ≥90% Vasquez: 50–60% 60–70% 70-80% 80-90% ≥90% Tie 50% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 2nd district encapsulates southern and western New Mexico, including the cities ofLas Cruces,Carlsbad, andAlamogordo, as well as the southwestern suburbs ofAlbuquerque.[14] The incumbent was RepublicanYvette Herrell, who had flipped back the district fromXochitl Torres Small (who had in turn narrowly defeated her for the seat in a race to replace a Republican incumbent in 2018) with 53.7% of the vote in 2020.[15] The new 2022-2032 lines for the district made it more competitive for Democrats, with Vasquez defeating Herrell in a narrow race that was too close to call until the next afternoon.[42]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Yvette Herrell (incumbent) | 28,623 | 100.00 | |
| Total votes | 28,623 | 100.00 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gabe Vasquez | 24,010 | 76.1 | |
| Democratic | Darshan Patel | 7,534 | 23.9 | |
| Total votes | 31,544 | 100.0 | ||
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
| Yvette Herrell | Gabe Vasquez | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 21, 2022 | KOB (TV) | Matt Grubs Tessa Mentus | [47] | P | P |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[30] | Tossup | April 27, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[31] | Tossup | April 22, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] | Lean R | October 26, 2022 |
| Politico[33] | Tossup | April 18, 2022 |
| RCP[34] | Lean R | June 9, 2022 |
| Fox News[35] | Tossup | August 22, 2022 |
| DDHQ[36] | Likely R | November 1, 2022 |
| 538[37] | Likely R | November 1, 2022 |
| The Economist[38] | Tossup | September 28, 2022 |
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Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Yvette Herrell (R) | Gabe Vasquez (D) | Undecided [d] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight[62] | July 19 – October 28, 2022 | October 31, 2022 | 49.4% | 45.3% | 5.3% | Herrell +4.1 |
Graphical summary
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Yvette Herrell (R) | Gabe Vasquez (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[39] | October 25–28, 2022 | 302 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 54% | 41% | 1%[e] | 4% |
| 54% | 44% | 2%[f] | – | ||||
| Research & Polling Inc.[40] | October 20–27, 2022 | 410 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 45% | 47% | – | 8% |
| Siena College/New York Times[63] | October 20–24, 2022 | 398 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 47% | 48% | – | 5% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[64][A] | September 20–26, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 45% | – | 12% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[65][A] | July 19–25, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 45% | – | 11% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gabe Vasquez | 96,986 | 50.3 | |
| Republican | Yvette Herrell (incumbent) | 95,636 | 49.6 | |
| Democratic | Eliseo Luna (write-in) | 51 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 192,673 | 100.0 | ||
| Democraticgain fromRepublican | ||||
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Leger Fernandez: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Martinez Johnson: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 3rd district covers the northern and eastern parts of the state, taking in the cities ofSanta Fe,Roswell,Farmington, andClovis, as well as parts of theNavajo Nation.[14] The incumbent was DemocratTeresa Leger Fernandez, who was elected with 58.7% of the vote in 2020.[15]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Teresa Leger Fernandez (incumbent) | 46,940 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 46,940 | 100.0 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Alexis Martinez Johnson | 28,729 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 28,729 | 100.0 | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[30] | Likely D | April 27, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[31] | Solid D | August 25, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] | Likely D | April 27, 2022 |
| Politico[33] | Lean D | April 18, 2022 |
| RCP[34] | Lean D | November 1, 2022 |
| Fox News[35] | Likely D | July 11, 2022 |
| DDHQ[36] | Likely D | July 20, 2022 |
| 538[37] | Solid D | September 30, 2022 |
| The Economist[38] | Safe D | November 7, 2022 |
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Teresa Leger Fernandez (D) | Alexis Martinez Johnson (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[39] | October 25–28, 2022 | 326 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 53% | 40% | 1%[g] | 7% |
| 58% | 40% | 1%[h] | – | ||||
| Research & Polling Inc.[40] | October 20–27, 2022 | 410 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 53% | 35% | – | 10% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Teresa Leger Fernandez (incumbent) | 134,217 | 58.2 | |
| Republican | Alexis Martinez Johnson | 96,565 | 41.8 | |
| Total votes | 230,782 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratichold | ||||
Partisan clients
Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates
Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates