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 County results Municipality results Precinct resultsBalint: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Madden: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The2022 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont was held on November 8, 2022, to elect theU.S. representative fromVermont's at-large congressional district. The election coincided withother elections to the House of Representatives,elections to theU.S. Senate, as well as various otherstate and local elections.
IncumbentDemocratPeter Welch was re-elected with 67.3% of the vote in2020. After eight-term U.S. SenatorPatrick Leahy announced he would retire on November 15, some speculated that Welch might decline to seek re-election and instead seek election to the Senate.[1] On November 22, 2021, Welch announced his candidacy for Leahy's seat, creating the first open U.S. House seat in Vermont sinceBernie Sandersran for the U.S. Senate in2006.[2]
Democratic nomineeBecca Balint won the election in a landslide, becoming the first elected female member of theUnited States Congress in the state's history. Her main opponent in the general election,Liam Madden, won theRepublican nomination but identifies as anindependent who opposes thetwo-party system.[3] Madden stated that he would not caucus with House Republicans if elected to Congress; theVermont Republican Party later disavowed his campaign.[4] Ericka Redic, who lost the Republican primary to Madden, ran in the general election as the nominee of theLibertarian Party.[5]
Vermont was the last remaining state that had never elected a woman to theUnited States Congress afterMississippi elected its first woman,Cindy Hyde-Smith, in2018. With Balint's victory, every U.S. state has now been represented in Congress by a woman at some point. Balint is also the first openly LGBTQ person to be elected to Congress from Vermont.[6]
A somewhat crowded initial primary field featuringVermont Senate president pro temporeBecca Balint,Lieutenant GovernorMolly Gray, state senatorKesha Ram Hinsdale, former congressional staffer Sianay Chase Clifford, and physician Louis Meyers was eventually winnowed down to Balint, Gray, and Meyers following the withdrawals of Ram and Chase Clifford in mid-2022. Balint received the support of SenatorBernie Sanders,[7] and national leaders of theprogressive movement such asElizabeth Warren[8] andPramila Jayapal,[7] the latter of whom backed Balint after Ram withdrew. Ram herself also supported Balint following her withdrawal.[9] Gray received backing from members of Vermont's Democratic establishment, such as SenatorPatrick Leahy[10] and former governorsMadeleine Kunin[11] andHoward Dean.[12]
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Becca Balint | Sianay Chase Clifford | Molly Gray | Louis Meyers | Kesha Ram | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)[46] | July 27 – August 1, 2022 | 383 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 59% | 1% | 27% | 1% | – | – | 12% |
| University of New Hampshire[47] | July 21–25, 2022 | 352 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 63% | – | 21% | 2% | – | 0% | 13% |
| July 19, 2022 | Sianay Chase Clifford drops out of the race | |||||||||
| May 27, 2022 | Kesha Ram drops out of the race | |||||||||
| University of New Hampshire[48] | April 14–18, 2022 | 278 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 28% | 0% | 21% | – | 19% | 1% | 31% |
| VPR/Vermont PBS[49] | January 3–9, 2022 | 418 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 11% | – | 31% | – | 0% | 12% | 47% |
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||||
| Becca Balint | Sianay Chase Clifford | Molly Gray | Louis Meyers | |||||
| 1 | Jul. 6, 2022 | WPTZ | Brian Colleran Alice Kang Stewart Ledbetter | [50] | P | P | P | P |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Becca Balint | 61,025 | 60.6% | |
| Democratic | Molly Gray | 37,266 | 37.0% | |
| Democratic | Louis Meyers | 1,593 | 1.6% | |
| Democratic | Sianay Chase Clifford(withdrawn) | 885 | 0.9% | |
| Total votes | 100,769 | 100.0% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Liam Madden | Ericka Redic | Anya Tynio | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[47] | July 21–25, 2022 | 196 (LV) | ± 7.0% | 14% | 15% | 9% | 61% |
Liam Madden won the primary in a surprise victory, as Redic was considered the frontrunner.[4] The Vermont Republican Party disavowed Madden's campaign following a meeting with him on August 15, less than a week after his victory in the primary, citing his refusal to commit to caucusing with the Republican Party if he won the election.[4] Redic announced that she would continue her campaign into the general election as the candidate of theLibertarian Party of Vermont.[5]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Liam Madden | 10,701 | 41.4% | |
| Republican | Ericka Bundy Redic | 8,255 | 31.9% | |
| Republican | Anya Tynio | 6,908 | 26.7% | |
| Total votes | 25,864 | 100.0% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progressive | Barbara Nolfi | 439 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 439 | 100.0 | ||
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| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
| Becca Balint | Liam Madden | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 11, 2022 | Vermont Public | Connor Cyrus | [59] | P | P |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[60] | Solid D | October 5, 2021 |
| Inside Elections[61] | Solid D | October 11, 2021 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[62] | Safe D | October 5, 2021 |
| Politico[63] | Solid D | April 5, 2022 |
| RCP[64] | Safe D | June 9, 2022 |
| Fox News[65] | Solid D | July 11, 2022 |
| DDHQ[66] | Solid D | July 20, 2022 |
| 538[67] | Solid D | June 30, 2022 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Becca Balint (D) | Liam Madden (R) | Ericka Redic (L) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)[68] | October 21–26, 2022 | 1,039 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 29% | 5% | 3%[c] | 9% |
| University of New Hampshire[69] | September 29 – October 3, 2022 | 765 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 57% | 19% | 9% | 11%[d] | 12% |
Becca Balint vs. Marcia Horne
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Becca Balint (D) | Marcia Horne (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[48] | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 25% | 0% | 26% |
Sianay Chase Clifford vs. Marcia Horne
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Sianay Chase Clifford (D) | Marcia Horne (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[48] | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 25% | 0% | 33% |
Molly Gray vs. Marcia Horne
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Molly Gray (D) | Marcia Horne (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[48] | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 27% | 1% | 23% |
Kesha Ram vs. Marcia Horne
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Kesha Ram (D) | Marcia Horne (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[48] | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 26% | 0% | 27% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Becca Balint | 176,494 | 60.45% | –6.86% | |
| Republican | Liam Madden | 78,297 | 26.85% | –0.16% | |
| Libertarian | Ericka Redic | 12,590 | 4.31% | N/A | |
| Independent | Matt Druzba | 5,737 | 1.97% | N/A | |
| Independent | Luke Talbot | 4,428 | 1.52% | N/A | |
| Independent | Adam Ortiz | 3,376 | 1.16% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,004 | 0.34% | +0.19% | ||
| Total votes | 291,955 | 100.00% | |||
| Democratichold | |||||
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No one has been explicit yet about their plans for the election in November 2022, save for those ruling out a run. ("No chance!" a spokesperson for Republican Gov. Phil Scott told a reporter on Monday.)
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