Trudeau won a third term as prime minister, his secondminority government.[4] Though theLiberals were hoping to win amajority government in order to govern alone,[5] the results were mostly unchanged from the2019 Canadian federal election.[6] The Liberals won the most seats at 160; as this fell short of the 170 seats needed for a majority in the House of Commons, they formed a minority government with support from other parties.[7][8] The 2021 election set a new record for the lowest vote share for a party that would go on to form a single-partyminority government. The election was the second one in a row where theLiberals succeeded in winning aplurality of seats despite having fewer votes than theConservative Party. The Liberals won 32.6 per cent of the popular vote, while losing the popular vote to theConservatives as they did in 2019.[9]
Trudeau faced public blowback for holding an election in the middle of aglobal pandemic due to his expectation that doing so could translate his supposedrallying popularity into alandslide victory. Criticism worsened when Trudeau failed to win by a majority and instead repeated his 2019 election showing.[14] An official government probe later found thatChina attempted to meddle in the election to influence Canadian foreign policy.[15]
Paul resigned as Green Party leader two months after the election,[16] and O'Toole was ousted as Conservative leader by his party's caucus in February 2022 over the poor showing in the election and other disagreements ongoing at the time. In March 2022, the NDP and Liberals formed aconfidence and supply agreement which lasted until the NDP withdrew in September 2024.[17][18]
The2019 Canadian federal election resulted in theLiberals, led by incumbent Prime MinisterJustin Trudeau, losing both their parliamentarymajority and the popular vote but nevertheless winning themost seats and remaining in office as aminority government. TheConservatives, who had gained seats and won the popular vote, continued as the Official Opposition. TheBloc Québécois regainedofficial party status and became the third party, replacing theNew Democrats in that role, with the latter party losing seats but maintaining official party status as the fourth party. Although theGreens increased their seats in theHouse of Commons, they ultimately failed to achieve the required number ofMPs (twelve) for official party status. No other party won any seats.[19][20]
In the immediate aftermath of the 2019 federal election, all leaders initially announced that they would continue as the heads of their respective parties into the43rd Canadian Parliament.[21][22][23]Elizabeth May said that she might not lead the Greens into the 44th federal election, and ultimately resigned as Green Party leader on November 4, 2019.[24][25] On November 6, 2019, the members of the Conservative caucus decided not to adopt a measure which would have given them the ability to removeAndrew Scheer as leader; his leadership would still have been reviewed at the party's next convention, which was scheduled for April 2020.[26][27] On December 12, Scheer announced his intention to resign as leader.[28] He stayed on until his successorErin O'Toole was chosen and remains as the MP forRegina—Qu'Appelle.[29][30]
On August 15, 2021, after a request from Prime Minister Trudeau, the Governor General dissolved parliament and called an election for September 20.[3]
The table below lists parties represented and seats held in the House of Commons after the 2019 federal election, at dissolution, and after the 2021 federal election. An expected by-election inHaldimand—Norfolk to fill the vacant seat was rendered moot by the commencement of the general election.
Criticism of Trudeau's decision to call an early election, particularly amidst theCOVID-19 pandemic in Canada, was a major theme of his opponents' campaigns, and commentators noted a lack of support for a snap election amongst the public.[94][95][96]
The beginning of the campaign proved difficult for the Liberals, who slightly fell behind the Conservatives in the polls of voting intentions.[93] The Conservative released their platform on the second day of the campaign. The party tried to change its image with this document by putting more focus on the environment, mental health, andLGBTQ+ rights issues.[97] Meanwhile, Trudeau attacked the new Conservative leader Erin O'Toole on the topics of compulsory vaccination for federal officials, abortion and the privatization of health care.[98]
On August 25,Minister for Women and Gender EqualityMaryam Monsef referred to theTaliban as "our brothers". Many on social media shared the video of this statement, and saw this as an indication that she felt sympathetic to the terrorist group. Monsef said that this was false, and further stated that she only chose those words because Muslims tend to refer to each other as "brothers".[99]
On August 27, 2021, Trudeau was forced to cancel a campaign rally set forBolton, Ontario, over security concerns arising from groups of protestors yelling obscenities at Trudeau. There were previous incidents of protesters showing up at his rallies criticizingCOVID-19 vaccines and public health measures.[100]
Foreign policy debates focused onChina and the situation in Afghanistan. For Afghanistan, discussions focused on ways to mitigate the immediate humanitarian crisis facing the country.[101][102] The groupCanadian Campaign for Afghan Peace launched an open letter on August 17 calling on political parties to take position of the new situation in Afghanistan.[103]
The campaign took place during theextradition case of Meng Wanzhou, which had exacerbated tensions between Canada and China. O'Toole accused Trudeau of being "weak on China", and promised to scale up Canada's hostility towards the country if elected.[104][105]
According to Shadwick Martin, the tendency to relegate defence and foreign policy to minor appearances continued in 2021. He argues that the Liberals did not deviate fromtheir government's existing foreign policy, while the Conservatives produced a lengthy list of reforms that one commentator described as "scattered and unfocused". The NDP's propositions were essentially unchanged from 2019.[106]
As in 2019, climate change was a major issue in the campaign. In March 2021, Conservative leader O'Toole announced acarbon pricing plan to replace the current Liberalcarbon tax, despite previous Conservative opposition to any form of a carbon tax.[107] There was thus a broad consensus among all represented parties for policies to mitigate climate change, although they differed in the emissions targets, the level of the carbon tax, and the transition path to a clean economy. Only the People's Party opposed all climate change policies and vowed to withdraw from theParis climate accord.[108]
The COVID-19 pandemic was a major campaign issue. The Liberal party sought to defend its pandemic response, while trying to tie Erin O'Toole to Alberta PremierJason Kenney. O'Toole always sidestepped questions about his previous support for Kenney's pandemic response by saying he would work with anypremier to face the pandemic regardless of their political stripes.[109] During the campaign, Alberta was experiencing its worst wave of the pandemic in terms of hospitalisations.[110]
Meanwhile, other parties explained what they would have done differently had they been in a similar situation. The Bloc Québecois criticized the amount of money invested inFederal aid for workers, especially theCanada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB).[111] The NDP, on the other hand, criticized the government's "aggressive" crackdown on possibly fraudulent CERB claims, while calling for clawing back wage subsidy payments to companies who fired their workers while received this benefit.[112] ThePeople's Party was the only party opposingvaccine passports,mask mandates andlockdowns.[113][114]
In September 2021, O'Toole changed his position ongun control. Reverting from his initial promise of repealing Prime Minister Trudeau's May 2020 ban on assault weapons, he changed his stance on the issue, promising that he would not repeal the ban.[115] Political commentators and analysts described O'Toole's leadership as shifting the Conservative Party to thepolitical centre.[116]
TheGreen Party of Canada experienced a period of infighting beginning in June 2021, whenJenica Atwin, one of its three MPs,crossed the floor to join the Liberal Party over a dispute regarding the2021 Israel–Palestine crisis.[117] Although there were calls for the party leaderAnnamie Paul to resign, she stayed on as leader through the federal election. She spent the majority of the election campaigning in her chosen riding ofToronto Centre, but failed to win the seat.[118]
The campaign was also marked by a rise in support for the People's Party of Canada. Before the election,Mainstreet Research gave the party more than 8 per cent of the vote,[119] andAbacus Data noted particularly high scores among Canadians under the age of 60.[120]Justin Trudeau andYves-François Blanchet indirectly accused the Conservatives for the rise of the PPC, with Trudeau notably criticizing Erin O'Toole for not requiring his party's candidates to be vaccinated.[121]
TheParliamentary Budget Officer provides a service to all parties for evaluating the financial impact of any of their proposals, but does not release details until the requesting party has done so as well.[132] After the election, the PBO revealed that 130 requests had been received from all parties, of which only 72 were made public.[133][134] It did release a report outlining variousbaselines that were used in its costing exercises.[135]
In June 2020, theLeaders' Debates Commission released its report reviewing the2019 election debates and making recommendations for future debates.[137][138] The report recommended a permanent and publicly funded commission be tasked with organizing two debates for every federal election. It also called for the commission, not the government, to set the criteria for participation in future election debates.[137][138]
The English-language debate gained notoriety when the moderator posed a question to Blanchet that characterized Quebec'slaw on secularism as "discriminatory". He challenged her use of that word, and the response was seen by some as a turning point in the Bloc's campaign, which gained in the polls after the debate.[139]
2021 Canadian general election debates
Date
Organizers
Location
Language
Moderator
P Participant A Absent (invited) I Invited N Not invited
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election. Trendlines are 25-polllocal regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and alogarithmic function of sample size. 95 per cent confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election. Trendlines are 30-polllocal regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and alogarithmic function of sample size. 95 per cent confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
Source: House of Commons,[151] validated and judicial recount results;[152] full results spreadsheet[153] (D) indicates a party deregistered before the next election
In a federal election, ajudicial recount is automatically ordered in a riding where the margin of victory is less than 0.1 per cent (one one-thousandth) of the votes cast. In cases where there is a larger but still narrow margin of victory, an elector can request a judicial recount. While no validated results triggered an automatic recount in this election, judicial recounts were requested in four ridings:Brome—Missisquoi,Davenport,Châteauguay—Lacolle andTrois-Rivières. Only Châteauguay—Lacolle saw its initial result overturned: the recount had Liberal incumbent MPBrenda Shanahan proclaimed the ultimate winner over Bloc candidate Patrick O'Hara, by a margin of only 12 votes.[155] It was the first time validated results were reversed by a judicial recount since the2008 election.[156] Recounts in Brome—Missiquoi and Davenport began on October 12; however, in both ridings the early count appeared to confirm the initial validated results, leading both challengers to concede defeat and the recount to be terminated.[157][158]
Riding
Initial validated results, first and second place
Recount start date
Judicially certified results, first and second place
Initially, the preliminary results ofCharleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley in the province ofManitoba were so close that the Liberal former MPDoug Eyolfson had just 24 votes fewer than the Conservative incumbent MPMarty Morantz, a margin small enough to trigger an automatic recount.[166] On September 28, Eyolfson conceded after the validated results had widened the gap to 460 votes, which is approximately 1 per cent of the total vote.[167]
Ternary plots - shift of electoral support (2019-2021)
2019
2021
Electoral districts identified by colours of winning parties
The remarkable similarity of the results and those of the 2019 federal election may have reinforced voters' sentiments that the early election was unnecessary, and its meagre results have left their mark on the electorate. A survey by Maru Public Opinion revealed that 77 per cent of respondents believe that Canada is more divided than ever, and 52 per cent feel that Canada's democratic system is broken.[168]
Several factors were quickly identified as having had a significant influence on the results. Some political scientists and commentators debated whether the PPC's better performance, compared to the2019 federal election, contributed to the Conservatives underErin O'Toole losing to the Liberals.Mainstreet Research CEO Quito Maggi andUniversity of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman posited that the PPC may have cost the Conservatives at least ten ridings.[169][170][171] The votes obtained by PPC candidates were larger than the margin of victory in 21 ridings, where the Conservative candidate was in second place (12 in Ontario, five in BC, two in Alberta, one in Quebec and one in Newfoundland). Of those seats, 14 went to the Liberals, six to the NDP, and one to the Bloc; however, it has been described as not a simple generalization, as a significant amount of PPC support arose from non-Conservative voters.[172]
Important vote swings to the Liberals were also noted in ridings with significantChinese-Canadian populations, with especially large ones arising in Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill and Richmond Centre.[173] This was predicted early on in the campaign in polling by Mainstreet Research, which observed that they "were not supporting Conservative candidates in the same way they did in the last couple of elections."[173] While some commentators believed that this may have arisen because of the manner the Tories were handling China-Canada issues,[173] others wondered whether the abnormally large changes were due to disinformation activity occurring in the local Chinese-language media.[174][175]
Even before the mail-in ballots were counted, the Liberals were projected as leading in 158 seats despite seeing their vote share fall from 33.1 per cent to 32.3 per cent.Gerald Butts, formerprincipal secretary to Trudeau, praised the result as a "smart campaign" that prioritized "vote efficiency"; this view was criticized as detracting from other essential aspects of an election campaign.[176] Other commentators questioned whether the Liberal vote has reached its effective limit, commenting that minority governments have occurred with greater frequency since theUnite the Right movement and the formation of the Conservative Party in 2003.[177]
Had he not been ousted by his caucus, O'Toole would have faced a mandatory leadership review at the next Conservative national conference in 2023. A member of the national council quickly called for a petition to accelerate the process.[178] Other Conservatives urged continued support of O'Toole, and called for the party to unify around him.[179] Most party and caucus members seemed to have appeared to favour apost-mortem review along the lines conducted by the party after the2004 federal election.[180]
The Green Party saw its share of the vote collapse to 2.3 per cent, its lowest level since the2000 federal election. Internal dissension and poor morale contributed to the decline, andElizabeth May called for an inquiry to determine the underlying reasons for it.[181] Paul announced her resignation as party leader on September 27.[182]
Commentators atThe Conversation noted that for a second election in a row the Liberals won the greatest number of seats but lost the popular vote to the Conservatives under thefirst-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system.[183] During the campaign, Trudeau said he remains open to getting rid of Canada's FPTP if re-elected, provided there is consensus on the issue; he also expressed his preference forranked voting overproportional representation. Trudeau had promised during the 2015 campaign that the 2015 federal election would be the last federal election to use FPTP.[184][183]
In the lead-up to the 2021 federal election,western alienation was seen as a potentially disruptive force, particularly inAlberta andSaskatchewan.[185] The Wexit Party, led by former Conservative MPJay Hill, positioned itself as awestern separatist alternative to the federal Conservatives, drawing comparisons to the Bloc Québécois.[186] The party changed its name to theMaverick Party in September 2020.[187]
Support for western separatism rose during 2020, with polling showing as much as 45–48% support for independence in Alberta.[188] However, media attention toward the movement and the party declined after the rebranding. There was inconsistency about whether to treat the Maverick Party as a major party, with some outlets—such as338Canada— including it in regional projections.[189]
Caught off guard by the early election call, the party managed to nominate only 29 candidates, primarily in Conservative strongholds in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Though they had also nominated a few in British Columbia and Manitoba.[190] Some analysts suggested that the People's Party of Canada attracted part of the Maverick Party's potential voter base.[191] The Maverick Party ultimately received just 0.21% of the national popular vote. However, in the ridings where it fielded candidates, it received approximately 2.3% of the vote and outperformed theGreen Party in Alberta and Saskatchewan.[192][193]
After the election, western separatist sentiment appeared to wane.[194] Some Maverick Party members were involved in the 2022 "Freedom Convoy" protests.[195] The party's public activity declined afterward, and it formally dissolved in early 2025, citing lack of electoral success and organizational challenges.[196]
Forty-nine MPs were elected for the first time, and two more (Randy Boissonnault andJohn Aldag) returned after having been defeated in 2019. The number of female MPs—103, up from 100 in 2019—is a record high for the House, and 22 of the first-time MPs are women.[197]
Kevin Vuong, whose candidacy was disavowed by the Liberals after nominations had closed, still won the riding ofSpadina—Fort York. Vuong announced that he would take his seat as an independent upon being sworn in.[198]Adam Vaughan, the previous incumbent, called on Vuong to resign as his victory was "compromised".[199] In a radio interview in November, Vuong apologized to his supporters, and he later said, "Of the many, many people who have reached out since my interview, they've encouraged me to move forward. And that's what I'm going to be doing."[200]
George Chahal, elected inCalgary Skyview, was the subject of several complaints concerning the removal of campaign flyers of another candidate, substituting them with his own. In January 2022, he accepted and paid a $500administrative monetary penalty assessed by theCommissioner of Canada Elections in the matter,[201] saying, "It's just a late night on an election campaign. Call it a dumb mistake or brain fog—it really doesn't matter why I did what I did. I think what matters is I did it. And I acknowledged it fully, openly, publicly."[202]
A year following the election, Conservative Party politicians including former leaderErin O'Toole blamed Chinese government interference as a factor behind the loss for the party. In a 2022 interview on theUnCommons podcast withNathaniel Erskine-Smith, O'Toole opined that media outfits linked to theChinese Communist Party could have cost the Conservatives up to "eight or nine seats."[203]
O'Toole's beliefs were supported by Conservative MP and foreign affairs criticMichael Chong who stated that while the party was initially hesitant to blame China for influencing the vote due to inconclusive evidence at the time, he now believed "The communist leadership in Beijing did interfere in the last federal election by spreading disinformation through proxies on Chinese-language social media platforms that contributed to the defeat of a number of Conservative MPs" citing a report byMcGill University. Similar views were shared by O'Toole's director of parliamentary affairs Mitch Heimpel who claimed Canadian national security officers had contacted the Conservatives around election day to express concerns about potential foreign interference. Heimpel also cited the example of former Conservative MPKenny Chiu who had been targeted by a misinformation campaign by the Chinese social media platformWeChat. Research into alleged electoral interference by McGill University indicated that there was no specific riding specific data to draw a full conclusion on the impact of potential interference and noted "Canadian-Chinese issues were not central to the campaign nor were they top of mind for voters" but concurred researchers had found Chinese state media had worked "with an apparent aim to convince Canadians of Chinese origin to vote against the Conservative Party."[204][205]
In February 2023,The Globe and Mail published a series of articles, reporting that theCanadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), in several classified documents, advised that China had employed disinformation campaigns and undisclosed donations to support preferred candidates during the campaign, all with the aim of ensuring that the Liberals would win again, but only with a minority.[206][207] Other illegal tactics under theCanada Elections Act were also revealed, such as directing international students to work for preferred candidates (ostensibly as volunteers, but being paid by sympathetic business owners),[206] and arranging for sympathetic donors to contribute to such campaigns, with the difference between their payments and the resulting tax credits being returned to them.[206][207] TheProcedure and House Affairs Committee of theHouse of Commons met to discuss these reports,[207] and voted to expand their current inquiry into the2019 election to include the 2021 election as well.[208] In April 2024, an inquiry into foreign interference heard that CSIS concluded in February 2023 that the Chinese government interfered in the 2019 and 2021 elections.[209]
The 2021 Canadian Election Study (CES) comprised two phases: a Campaign Period Survey (CPS) and a Post-Election Survey (PES). The CPS involved three components—“CPS,” “CPS Modules,” and “CPS Oversample”—which were consolidated into a final dataset of 20,968 respondents. Data collection for the CPS was conducted between August 17 and September 19, 2021. The PES followed shortly after, occurring from September 23 to October 4, 2021, and yielded a sample size of 15,069.[210]
The survey's core questions were adapted from prior iterations of the CES to maintain consistency and focus on key topics, including voting intentions, demographics, issue positions, partisanship, and political engagement.
The 2021 CES was directed by a team of researchers: Laura Stephenson, Allison Harell, Daniel Rubenson, and Peter Loewen.
The data presented include questions from the CPS and PES, cross-tabulated with 2021 voting preferences. The weights applied to the data were adjusted to align with the actual results of the 2021 Canadian federal election.
Student votes aremock elections, running parallel to actual elections, in which students not of voting age participate. Student vote elections are administered by Student Vote Canada, and are for educational purposes and do not count towards the results. BothLanark—Frontenac—Kingston andVille-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Sœurs are tied, resulting in only 336 of 338 ridings being declared.[211]
^abIncludesKevin Vuong, who appeared on the ballot as a Liberal but was disavowed by the party during the campaign. He was not seated as a member of the Liberal caucus.[2]
^Annamie Paul lost the by-election in Toronto Centre the previous year and the 2019 general election.
^IncludesKitchener Centre candidateRaj Saini who withdrew, andSpadina—Fort York candidate Kevin Vuong who was removed as a candidate, both after the deadline for candidate registration, and thus remained on the ballot as Liberals.[145][146]
^IncludesBeaches—East York candidate Lisa Robinson, who was removed as a candidate after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as a Conservative.[147] The Conservatives did not run a candidate inDartmouth—Cole Harbour after their nominee withdrew shortly before the registration deadline.[148]
^IncludesToronto—St. Paul's candidate Sidney Coles andCumberland—Colchester candidate Daniel Osborne, who both withdrew after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as New Democrats.[149]
^IncludesRenfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke candidate Michael Lariviere, who was removed as a candidate after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as a Green.[150]
^Canada's Fourth Front changed its name to Direct Democracy Party of Canada shortly after the election.
^Wilson-Raybould, Jody (July 8, 2021)."Constituent Letter from JWR".Hon. Jody Wilson-Raybould, MP for Vancouver Granville.Archived from the original on July 8, 2021. RetrievedJuly 8, 2021.
^Myles, Brian (September 18, 2021)."Tout ça pour ça?" [All that for this?].Le Devoir (in French).Montreal.Archived from the original on September 19, 2021. RetrievedSeptember 19, 2021.
4.7 pp)
Results by electoral district, shaded by winners' vote share
Results by electoral district, holds and gains
Results by province and territory
Y
Y
N
.svg)
.svg)
.svg)
.svg)
3
.svg)
_(48622478973)_(cropped)_(cropped)_(cropped).jpg)
.jpg)
.png)
.jpg)
.jpg)
.svg)
