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2020 United States presidential election predictions

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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Most election predictors for the2020 United States presidential election used:

Tossup: No advantage
Tilt: Advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
Lean: Slight advantage
Likely: Significant, but surmountable, advantage (highest rating given byCBS News andNPR)
Safe orsolid: Near-certain chance of victory

State or district	EV	PVI^[1]	2016 result	2020 result	Cook Oct 28, 2020^[2]	Inside Elections Oct 28, 2020^[3]	Sabato Nov 2, 2020^[4]	Politico Nov 2, 2020^[5]	Real Clear Politics Oct 29, 2020^[6]	Niskanen Center Sep 15, 2020^[7]	CNN Nov 2, 2020^[8]	The Economist Nov 3, 2020^[9]	CBS News Nov 1, 2020^[10]	270 to Win Nov 3, 2020^[11]	ABC News Nov 2, 2020^[12]	NPR Oct 30, 2020^[13]	NBC News Oct 27, 2020^[14]	DDHQ Nov 3, 2020^[15]	Five Thirty Eight^[a] Nov 2, 2020^[16]

Alabama	9	R+14	+27.73% R	+25.46% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
Alaska	3	R+9	+14.73% R	+10.06% R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Tossup	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Arizona	11	R+5	+3.50% R	+0.31% D (flip)	Lean D(flip)	Tilt D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Likely D(flip)	Tossup	Lean D(flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D(flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D(flip)
Arkansas	6	R+15	+26.92% R	+27.62% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
California	55	D+12	+30.11% D	+29.16% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D
Colorado	9	D+1	+4.91% D	+13.50% D	Likely D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D
Connecticut	7	D+6	+13.64% D	+20.07% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D
Delaware	3	D+6	+11.37% D	+18.97% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D
District of Columbia	3	D+41	+86.78% D	+86.75% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D
Florida	29	R+2	+1.20% R (flip)	+3.36% R	Tossup	Tilt D(flip)	Lean R	Tossup	Tossup	Likely D(flip)	Tossup	Lean D(flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)
Georgia	16	R+5	+5.13% R	+0.24% D (flip)	Tossup	Tilt D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D(flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Hawaii	4	D+18	+32.18% D	+29.46% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D
Idaho	4	R+19	+31.77% R	+30.77% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
Illinois	20	D+7	+17.06% D	+16.99% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D
Indiana	11	R+9	+19.17% R	+16.06% R	Likely R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R
Iowa	6	R+3	+9.41% R (flip)	+8.20% R	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R
Kansas	6	R+13	+20.60% R	+14.65% R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R
Kentucky	8	R+15	+29.84% R	+25.94% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
Louisiana	8	R+11	+19.64% R	+18.61% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R
Maine	2	D+3	+2.96% D	+9.07% D	Likely D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D
ME-1	1	D+8	+14.81% D	+23.09% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	—	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D
ME-2	1	R+2	+10.29% R (flip)	+7.44% R	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R	Tossup	Tossup	Likely R	Tossup	—	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Maryland	10	D+12	+26.42% D	+33.21% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D
Massachusetts	11	D+12	+27.20% D	+33.46% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D
Michigan	16	D+1	+0.23% R (flip)	+2.78% D (flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Tossup	Likely D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Likely D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Likely D(flip)	Solid D(flip)
Minnesota	10	D+1	+1.52% D	+7.11% D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Tossup	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Solid D
Mississippi	6	R+9	+17.83% R	+16.55% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R
Missouri	10	R+9	+18.64% R	+15.39% R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Montana	3	R+11	+20.42% R	+16.37% R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Nebraska	2	R+14	+25.05% R	+19.06% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
NE-1	1	R+11	+20.72% R	+14.92% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	—	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Lean R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
NE-2	1	R+4	+2.24% R	+6.50% D (flip)	Lean D(flip)	Tilt D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D(flip)	—	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)
NE-3	1	R+27	+54.19% R	+53.02% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	—	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
Nevada	6	D+1	+2.42% D	+2.39% D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Tossup	Safe D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D
New Hampshire	4	D+1	+0.37% D	+7.35% D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Safe D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D
New Jersey	14	D+7	+14.10% D	+15.94% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D
New Mexico	5	D+3	+8.21% D	+10.79% D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D
New York	29	D+11	+22.49% D	+23.11% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D
North Carolina	15	R+3	+3.66% R	+1.35% R	Tossup	Tilt D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D(flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D(flip)	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D(flip)
North Dakota	3	R+16	+35.73% R	+33.34% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
Ohio	18	R+3	+8.13% R (flip)	+8.03% R	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Oklahoma	7	R+20	+36.39% R	+33.09% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
Oregon	7	D+5	+10.98% D	+16.09% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D
Pennsylvania	20	EVEN	+0.72% R (flip)	+1.16% D (flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Tossup	Likely D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Likely D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Likely D(flip)
Rhode Island	4	D+10	+15.51% D	+20.77% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D
South Carolina	9	R+8	+14.27% R	+11.68% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Solid R	Lean R	Likely R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
South Dakota	3	R+14	+29.79% R	+26.16% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
Tennessee	11	R+14	+26.01% R	+23.21% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
Texas	38	R+8	+8.99% R	+5.58% R	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R	Lean R	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R	Lean R
Utah	6	R+20	+18.08% R	+20.48% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R
Vermont	3	D+15	+26.41% D	+35.41% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D
Virginia	13	D+1	+5.32% D	+10.11% D	Likely D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D
Washington	12	D+7	+15.71% D	+19.20% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D
West Virginia	5	R+19	+42.07% R	+38.93% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
Wisconsin	10	EVEN	+0.77% R (flip)	+0.63% D (flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Tossup	Likely D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Likely D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Lean D(flip)	Likely D(flip)	Likely D(flip)
Wyoming	3	R+25	+46.29% R	+43.38% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
Overall	538	EVEN	D: 232 R:306	D: 306 R: 232	D:290 R: 125 Tossup: 123	D:350 R: 125 Tossup: 63	D:321 R: 217 Tossup: 0	D:279 R: 163 Tossup: 96	D: 216 R: 125 Tossup: 197	D:318 R: 123 Tossup: 97	D:279 R: 163 Tossup: 96	D:334 R: 164 Tossup: 40	D:279 R: 163 Tossup: 96	D:279 R: 163 Tossup: 96	D:321 R: 125 Tossup: 92	D:279 R: 125 Tossup: 134	D:279 R: 125 Tossup: 134	D:308 R: 163 Tossup: 67	D:334 R: 169 Tossup: 35

Notes

[edit]

^Projected chances of winning indicated by Tossup: 50%–59%, Lean: 60%–74%, Likely: 75%–94%, Solid: 95%–100%

References

[edit]

^Coleman, Miles (December 15, 2017)."2016 State PVI Changes – Decision Desk HQ".Decision Desk HQ. Archived fromthe original on June 13, 2018. RetrievedJuly 27, 2019.
^"2020 Electoral College Ratings"(PDF).The Cook Political Report.Archived(PDF) from the original on October 28, 2020. RetrievedOctober 28, 2020.
^"Presidential Ratings".Inside Elections. April 3, 2020. RetrievedApril 14, 2020.
^"2020 President".Sabato's Crystal Ball. July 14, 2020. RetrievedJuly 14, 2020.
^Shepard, Steven; et al. (November 19, 2019)."2020 Election Forecast".Politico. RetrievedNovember 19, 2019.
^"Battle for White House".RealClearPolitics. April 19, 2019.Archived from the original on May 3, 2020. RetrievedNovember 8, 2020.
^Niskanen Center Electoral Map,270toWin, September 15, 2020.
^"CNN's final 2020 Electoral College outlook: A remarkably stable race comes to an end".CNN. November 2, 2020.Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. RetrievedNovember 3, 2020.
^"Forecasting the US elections".The Economist.Archived from the original on July 5, 2020. RetrievedNovember 3, 2020.
^"2020 Election Battleground Tracker".CBS News. July 12, 2020.Archived from the original on July 12, 2020. RetrievedNovember 3, 2020.
^"2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map".270 to Win.Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. RetrievedNovember 3, 2020.
^"ABC News Race Ratings".ABC News. July 24, 2020.Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. RetrievedNovember 3, 2020.
^Montanaro, Domenico (October 30, 2020)."Final NPR Electoral Map: Biden Has The Edge, But Trump Retains Narrow Path".NPR.Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. RetrievedNovember 3, 2020.
^Todd, Chuck; Murray, Mark; Dann, Carrie; Holzberg, Melissa (October 27, 2020)."Biden continues to lead in our latest battleground map".NBC News.Washington, D.C.Archived from the original on October 27, 2020. RetrievedOctober 28, 2020.
^"2020 Presidential Election Model".Øptimus Consulting.Decision Desk HQ. November 3, 2020. RetrievedJuly 31, 2022.
^"2020 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. 2020. Archived fromthe original on September 11, 2020. RetrievedNovember 2, 2020.

External links

[edit]

General Elections, 3 November 2020, Reports and findings from theOSCE/ODIHR election observation mission

(← 2016)2020 United States presidential election (2024 →)

Joe Biden,Kamala Harris (D), 306 electoral votes;Donald Trump,Mike Pence (R), 232 electoral votes

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Vice presidential	2008 campaign selection convention debate election transition 2012 campaign convention debate election
Presidential	1988 campaign primaries 2008 campaign primaries debates 2020 campaign endorsements celebrity organizations Congress state and territorial officials municipal officials primaries endorsements debates Unity Task Forces running mate selection convention debates election protests 2024 campaign withdrawal Democratic opposition primaries endorsements protest vote movements debate

Family

Edward Francis Blewitt (great-grandfather)
Neilia Hunter Biden (first wife)
Jill Biden (second wife)
James Biden (brother)
Valerie Biden Owens (sister)
Beau Biden (son)
Hunter Biden (son)
Ashley Biden (daughter)
Howard Krein (son-in-law)
Hallie Olivere Biden (daughter-in-law)
Kathleen Buhle (former daughter-in-law)
Melissa Cohen Biden (daughter-in-law)
Dogs
Cat
- Willow

Writings

Speeches

Inaugural address (2021)
Joint session of Congress (2021)
State of the Union Address
Warsaw speech (2022)
Battle for the Soul of the Nation speech (2022)
Farewell address (2025)

Media
depictions

←Donald Trump →

Category

Donald Trump

45th (2017–2021) and47th (2025–present)president of the United States

Life and
politics

Attempted assassinations

Family

Wives	Ivana Trump (1977–1990) Marla Maples (1993–1999) Melania Trump (2005–present)
Children	Donald Trump Jr. Ivanka Trump Eric Trump Tiffany Trump Barron Trump
Fred Trump (father) Mary Anne MacLeod Trump (mother) Maryanne Trump Barry (sister) Fred Trump Jr. (brother) Robert Trump (brother) Frederick Trump (grandfather) Elizabeth Christ Trump (grandmother) Jared Kushner (son-in-law) Lara Trump (daughter-in-law) Michael Boulos (son-in-law) Vanessa Trump (former daughter-in-law) Blaine Trump (former sister-in-law) Amalija Knavs (mother-in-law) John G. Trump (uncle) Mary L. Trump (niece) Fred Trump III (nephew) John W. Walter (cousin)

Campaigns

2000 presidential campaign Republican opposition Never Trump movement 2016 Mitt Romney speech 2020 2024 Sexual misconduct allegations Access Hollywood recording "Kamala is for they/them" (attack ad) Trump Bible "God Bless the U.S.A." (campaign song) "Y.M.C.A." (campaign song)
2016	Presidential campaign announcement "Make America Great Again" hat rallies links between campaign officials and Russian government officials Crossfire Hurricane Republican primaries debates running mate selection convention General election endorsements debates reactions transition
2020	Presidential campaign rallies Tulsa rally Republican primaries convention General election political endorsements non-political endorsements debates attempts to overturn fake electors plot Chesebro memos Eastman memos lawsuits Texas v. Pennsylvania Jeffrey Clark letter Republican reactions to Trump's election fraud claims Biden transition
2024	Presidential campaign announcement rallies Republican primaries debates running mate selection convention General election eligibility endorsements debates transition

Legal affairs

← Barack Obama
← Joe Biden →

Category

COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

Timeline
Data
- by state
- chart
Testing
Vaccination
- mandates
- misinformation and hesitancy
Misinformation

Locations

States and D.C.	Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California timeline S.F. Bay Area Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland timeline Massachusetts timeline Boston timeline Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York New York City timeline North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Columbus Oklahoma Oregon Portland Pennsylvania Philadelphia Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas timeline Austin Utah Vermont Virginia Washington Washington, D.C. White House West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
Territories and other areas	American Samoa Guantanamo Bay Naval Base Immigration detention Guam Navajo Nation Northern Mariana Islands Puerto Rico U.S. Virgin Islands
Ships	Grand Princess USSTheodore Roosevelt

Responses

Government
response

Legislation

Private
response

Media

Impacts

Social

2022–2023 pediatric care crisis

Economic

Strikes

Notable
people

Federal	Jerome Adams Scott Atlas Alex Azar Joe Biden Deborah Birx Rick Bright Anthony Fauci Pete Gaynor Brett Giroir Stephen Hahn Ashish Jha Ron Klain Nancy Messonnier Vivek Murthy Peter Navarro Mike Pence Gustave F. Perna Robert R. Redfield Todd T. Semonite Moncef Slaoui Andy Slavitt Donald Trump Rochelle Walensky Jeff Zients
State and local	Amy Acton Eric Adams Greg Abbott Kate Brown Andrew Cuomo Dave A. Chokshi Bill de Blasio Ron DeSantis Mike DeWine Eric Garcetti Kathy Hochul Larry Hogan Jay Inslee Jim Kenney Brian Kemp Ned Lamont Lori Lightfoot Phil Murphy Gavin Newsom J. B. Pritzker Gretchen Whitmer Tom Wolf
Scientists	Yaneer Bar-Yam Carl Bergstrom Mandy Cohen Kizzmekia Corbett Natalie Dean Eric Feigl-Ding Céline Gounder Scott Gottlieb Peter Hotez Akiko Iwasaki Ashish Jha Marc Lipsitch Syra Madad Lauren Meyers Michael Mina Michael Osterholm Kimberly Prather Caitlin Rivers

COVID-19 portal

Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election_predictions&oldid=1279792218"

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Notes

References

Further reading

External links